2023 Preview: Atlanta Braves – FullTime Fantasy

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Atlanta Braves.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Atlanta Braves

The Braves extended their playoff streak to five seasons, which included a World Series win in 2021. Since 1991, Atlanta has won 20 division titles (NL West – 3 and NL East – 17), with another World Series title (1995). Their only other postseason appearances came in 1914 and 1957 (World Series wins), plus 1948, 1958, 1969, and 1982.

They finished third in runs (789), second in home runs (243), and fourth in RBIs (753). Atlanta hit .253 (8th) with 87 stolen bases (15th). Their pitching staff allowed 47 fewer runs than in 2021 (656), leading to a 3.46 ERA (6th). The Braves relievers combined for 31 wins, 21 losses, and 55 saves over 557.2 innings with a 3.03 ERA (4th).

In the offseason, Atlanta parted ways with SS Dansby Swanson, RP Kenley Jansen, OF AdaDuvall, and OF Robbie Grossman. They acquired C Sean Murphy in a three-way deal with A’s and Brewers for C William Contreras, SP Kyle Muller, and SP Freddy Tarnok. In addition, the Braves picked up OF Sam Hilliard in a minor trade with Colorado. OF Jordan Luplow was the only free agent signing to the major league roster. Atlanta also added RP Joe Jimenez in a swap with the Tigers for OF Justyn-Henry Malloy and P Jake Higginbotham.

The Braves have the nucleus of multiple young, developing, talented players, along with supporting power. They still have not seen the ceiling for Ronald Acuna, and OF Michael Harris, 3B Austin Riley, and SS Vaughn Grissom set the stage for a competitive offense for many seasons to come. Atlanta locked up a relatively young catcher (Sean Murphy) in the offseason, and 2B Ozzie Albies is easily forgotten as a valuable part of their franchise after missing 98 games in 2022.

Their bullpen emerged last season, with some restructuring over the winter. The pieces are in place for another excellent season in the late innings for the Braves.

SP Spencer Strider arrived in 2022 and has the tools to be a frontline ace. Atlanta would love for SP Mike Soroka to get past his injury woes over the past two seasons. The combination of SP Max Fried, SP Kyle Wright, and SP Charlie Morton gives the Braves a chance to win on many nights.

Atlanta remains a top contender in the NL East with an eye on taking down another World Series.

Starting Lineup

OF Ronald Acuna

The Braves lost Acuna for the season in 2021 on July 10th with a torn ACL in his right knee. His success over 82 games projected over the entire season came to 142 runs, 47 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases, which would have ranked him first for hitters in FPGscore (13.51).

He returned to action on April 28th last year after sitting out the first 19 games. Acuna ran over his 22 starts (.284/13/2/10/9 over 81 at-bats), but he struck out 32.3% of the time. Groin, quad, and foot injuries led to 12 missed games in May and June. His best production came over the final two months (.275/31/7/27/7 over 204 at-bats) while failing short of expectations and his previous resume. Acuna stole 20 of his 29 bases before the All-Star break.

His strikeout rate (23.6) matched his career-best in 2021, but he took fewer walks (9.9% – 11.4 in his career). Acuna had a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.556 – 1.955 from 2018 to 2021), showing that his right knee was not all the way back from his injury. Over the winter, he went 15-for-34 with 10 runs, two home runs, and six RBIs in Venezuelan League.

Over his first four years with Atlanta, Acuna has a contact batting average of .402 while falling in a tight range each season (.410. .400, .400, and .396). He made weaker contact in 2022 (.364) despite ranking favorably in exit velocity (91.2 – 36th) and hard-hit rate (49.7 – 21st). His swing path led to a much lower flyball rate (34.0 – 45.6 in 2021 and 43.0 in 2020) and a career-low HR/FB rate (12.8 – 24.2 in 2021 and 32.6 in 2020).

Acuna failed to make an impact against left-handed pitching (.234 with 23 runs, three home runs, and seven RBIs over 107 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: He slipped to 40th in FPGscore (2.71) while missing 43 games. Despite a down season, his ADP (3) ranks him as a top three player drafted in 2023 in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. If he regains his loft from 2021, Acuna has a chance to lead the NL in runs with a 40/40 season within reach. To hit over .300, he must lower his strikeout rate.

2B Ozzie Albies

Other than batting average (.259), Albies was a fantasy stud in 2021 for his position. He finished 15th in FPGscore (6.01) for hitters while setting career-highs in home runs (30), RBI (106), and stolen bases (20). In addition, Albies excelled with runners on base (RBI rate – 20) while pushing his average hit rate (1.883) to a new high.

Last year, he landed on the injured list in mid-June, costing him all but two games for the remainder of the season due to a broken left foot and fractured finger on his right hand. Over his 64 games, Albies underperformed his 2021 season in average hit rate (1.656 – 1.883) and contact batting average (.305 – .325). He continued to succeed with runners on base (RBI rate – 19). His strikeout rate (17.5) was a three-year low, with a below-par walk rate (6.0 – 6.6 in his career).

He had further regression in his HR/FB rate (8.9 – 12.2 in 2021) while maintaining a flyball swing path (44.1% – 48.5 in 2020). Albies posted a bottom-tier hard-hit rate (26.5 – 303rd) and exit velocity (87.1 – 256th).

Fantasy Outlook: Albies was a top-30 hitter in baseball in 2018 and 2019 while reaching a new ceiling in 2021. The Braves could hit him anywhere from second to sixth in the batting order, making it difficult to predict his value in runs and RBIs. His ADP (52) in the high-stakes market in early February ranks him 35th for all batters drafted. Albies tends to earn his keep by volume of at-bats. A nice four-category bat (90/20/75/15) with a chance to surprise in batting average.

OF Michael Harris

After an excellent start at AA (.294/33/5/33/11 over 174 at-bats) last season, the Braves called up Harris to the majors in late May. His bat had instant success over his first 31 games (.325 with 20 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and four steals) while hitting ninth in Atlanta’s batting order. He had a productive July (13/5/13/7 over 90 at-bats) despite hitting only .222. Harris ended the year with top-of-the-order production (.314 with 42 runs, 10 home runs, 34 RBIs, and nine steals over 210 at-bats).

He still is not quite there yet against left-handed pitching (.238 with two home runs and 17 RBIs over 126 at-bats – 30.4% strikeout rate ~ .190 at AA with no home runs and four RBIs over 42 at-bats). His approach (strikeout rate – 24.3 and walk rate – 4.8) will improve with more experience in the majors.

Harris has an elite contact batting average (.401 – .393 at AA) that was the best of his career at any level while improving each season. In addition, his average hit rate (1.732) was well above his minor-league career (1.509).

His swing path was groundball favoring (56.2%) with the Braves while more than doubling his previous HR/FB rate (22.9 – 10.0 at AA and 10.0 at High A). Harris finished 67th in exit velocity (89.5) and hard-hit rate (45.1).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his scouting reports and success last season, he looks poised to hit much higher in the Braves lineup in 2023. There are hints of regression in power due to his low launch angle (4.5), but his talent screams middle-of-the-order bat. Harris brings excellent defense and clutch ability (RBI rate – 20), plus the speed to light up the base paths if given the green light to run more often. His ADP (28) in the NFBC shows that drafters believe in his bat and overall skill set. I view him as more of a three-hole hitter until his approach improves. I will set his bar at .280 with 100+ runs, 20+ home runs, 90 RBIs, and a chance at 35+ steals. His batting average can reach a higher ceiling until he solves lefty pitching. Harris ranked 31st by FPGscore (3.65) for hitters in his rookie season.

3B Austin Riley

Riley ended up being a big win for fantasy managers in 2021. He finished with excellent stats in runs (91), home runs (33), RBIs (107), and batting average (.303) when adding his ADP (208). Riley had a sharp rise in his contact batting average (.424 – .324 in 2020), leading to his success in batting average.

Last season, he brought more boom to his swing, leading to a new top in home runs (38). Unfortunately, Riley failed to match his previous success in the other four roto categories. His RBI rate (14) was well below 2021 (17), with a setback in his contact batting average (.376 – .424). He had a slight improvement in his approach (strikeout rate – 24.2 and walk rate – 8.2).

Only three of his 33 home runs came off left-handed pitching (.274 BAA over 135 at-bats) in 2021. Riley teed off of lefties (.329/21/11/25 over 149 at-bats) last year. From June 25th to August 9th, his bat was on fire (.381 over 155 at-bats with 27 runs, 12 home runs, and 33 RBIs). Unfortunately, he lost his swing/edge over his final 50 games (.215/24/8/19 over 186 at-bats).

Riley continues to have a line drive swing path (23.5% – 24.3 in his career) while increasing his HR/FB rate (21.8). His flyball rate (38.6) was also a three-year high. He ranked highly in exit velocity (92.5 – 13th), hard-hit rate (50.8 – 14th), and barrel rate (15.7 – 11th).

Fantasy Outlook: Riley has reached a beast level in power. He hits for a high average when the ball is in play, lowering his batting average risk. With further growth in his approach, his bat will have that much higher of a ceiling. His ADP (22) in the high-stakes market now rates with the best hitters in baseball. Next step: .280 with 40+ home runs and 110+ RBIs. The Braves’ overall lineup should be better in 2023, helping his runs and RBI chances.

1B Matt Olson

Over the past two seasons, Olson has settled into a productive, high-power bat (73 home runs and 214 RBIs) while still finding his way on the approach side of the game. His walk rate (10.7) has been an area of strength every season in the majors, but his strikeout rate (24.3) has been up and down over the past three seasons (2020 – 31.4 and 2021 – 16.8). Other than 2019 (broken hamate bone to start the season), Olson missed only six combined games in 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022, helping his counting stats.

His worst production (11 runs, two home runs, and six RBIs over 82 at-bats) last year came in April despite hitting for his highest average (.293). Olson played better over his final 93 games (.235/59/26/71 over 358 at-bats).

He ranked well in exit velocity (92.9 – 9th), barrel rate (13.6 – 23rd), and hard-hit rate (50.9 – 12th). Olson has a flyball swing path (42.3 – 43.6 in his career), but his HR/FB rate (17.9) was a four-year low (23.7, 24.1, and 19.3).

His contact batting average (.336) fell in a range with two of his previous seasons, somewhat limiting expectations of his batting average. Olson has an established floor in average hit rate (1.986 – 2.015 in his career) while grading as an above-average run producer in three of his past four seasons based on his RBI rates (18, 15, 17, and 17).

Fantasy Outlook: The coin toss in the Braves’ starting lineup is whether Olson should hit in front of Austin Riley in the batting order. In addition, does the overall scoring ability of the team increase by Atlanta lining up Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris tethered together at the top of their batting order? Either way, Olson should have plenty of runners on base when he comes to the plate. His career path points to some batting average risk and the swing to deliver 40+ home runs. Last year he finished 39th in FPGscore (2.82) for hitters. His ADP (45) in the NFBC ranks him fifth at first base. When building a fantasy team, I do not view him as a top-three hitter piece to the winning puzzle.

OF Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna was an excellent fit for the Braves in 2020. He led the National League in home runs (18), RBIs (56), and plate appearances (267) while posting his highest batting average (.338 – .276 in his career) by a wide margin. His RBI rate (20) was also the best in his time in the majors.

The Braves lost Ozuna 48 games into 2021 due to two broken fingers on his left hand. In addition, a domestic issue in early August put him out of action for the remainder of the season.

Over the past two seasons, he hit only .222 with 77 runs, 30 home runs, and 82 RBIs over 658 at-bats. Ozuna had some regression in his approach (strikeout rate – 23.5 and walk rate – 7.0) compared to his career averages (21.5/7.8). His contact batting average has been in a weak area in back-to-back seasons (.282 and .305).

In 2022, Ozuna had no business being in the lineup vs. lefties (.200 with one home run and eight RBIs over 135 at-bats). Most of his production (41 runs, 17 home runs, and 37 RBIs) came before the All-Star break. In mid-August, he was arrested for a DUI charge. The Braves sat him on the bench on many days over the final two months.

Ozuna continued to have a high flyball rate (43.5), but his HR/FB rate (15.0) was well below his peak in 2019 (22.1) and 2020 (26.5). Over his first six seasons in the majors, he had an exit velocity higher than 90.5 each year but about two mph over the past two seasons (89.7 and 89.4). In addition, his hard-hit rate (43.8) came in below his career average (45.4).

Fantasy Outlook: There is thump in Ozuna’s swing, but he needs to rebuild his bat. The Braves will hit him lower in the batting, leading to fewer runs while needing to remove his batting average risk. His ADP (376) in the high-stakes fits a team looking for a late power hitter. Hopefully, a winter to clear his head will lead to a bounce-back season (75/25/75).

C Sean Murphy

Coming into the majors (.267 in the minors over 855 at-bats with 146 runs, 34 home runs, and 129 RBIs), Murphy had the upside tag as a prospect. Unfortunately, there has been more frustration than excitement in his bat with Oakland before 2022. Over his first 182 career games in the majors, Murphy hit .222 with 82 runs, 28 home runs, and 81 RBIs over 562 at-bats with no rhythm against left-handed pitching (.210 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs over 176 at-bats).

Last season, the A’s complemented his catching starts (116) with 30 DH appearances, leading to career highs in at-bats (537), runs (67), hits (134), home runs (18), and RBIs (66). His average hit rate (1.709) is trending down slightly while still not repeating his minor league contact batting average (.330) over the past two years (.305 and .324). Murphy had the best approach of his career in 2022 (strikeout rate – 20.3 and walk rate – 9.2).

His HR/FB rate (11.5) was a career-low with three consecutive seasons of regression. He had the lowest exit velocity (88.7) and hard-hit rate (41.4) of his career.

Fantasy Outlook: The trade to the Braves points to a pullback in at-bats while also having to fend off Travis d’Arnaud for starts behind the plate. He ranks as the 10th catcher in the early draft season in the NFBC with an ADP of 125. I sense about 450 at-bats with similar production as 2022 due to playing in better offense and ballpark.

OF Eddie Rosario

The Twins gave Rosario a chance to bat cleanup up for just about the whole season in 2019, and he responded with a career-high in runs (91), HRs (32), and RBIs (109). His RBI rate (20) supported his higher run-producing opportunity while making another push in his average hit rate (1.813). His bat remained productive (.257/31/14/42/3 over 210 at-bats) over the 60-game schedule in 2021.

In 2021 and 2022, Rosario missed 143 games due to abdomen and eye issues. Over 629 at-bats, he hit .240 with 69 runs, 19 home runs, 86 RBIs, and 14 steals. His contact batting average has been in a weak area over the last two seasons (.307, .308, and .291). He finished with the worst strikeout rate (25.2) of his career last year due to his vision issues.

Rosario struggled vs. lefties (four-for-28 with no home runs and one RBI) in 2022 with only a slight spark over his final 54 at-bats (eight runs, one home run, and five RBIs). His HR/FB rate (6.7) was well below his best seasons with the Twins (2019 – 15.8 and 2020 – 15.9).

Fantasy Outlook: Blurred vision clearly was an issue for Rosario last season. When healthy, he limits the damage in strikeouts while showing clutch ability with runners on base (RBI rate of 20.1 from 2019 to 2021). His ADP (611) in the NFBC has him buried in the free-agent pool. I like his bat if he’s seeing the ball well in spring training, and the Braves name him their starting right fielder. The changes to the shift rule should help Rosario. Possibly .270 with 70 runs, 20 home runs, and 75 RBIs if he gets enough at-bats against lefties.

SS Vaughn Grissom

Over three short seasons in the minors, Grissom hit .315 with 158 runs, 24 home runs, 133 RBIs, and 46 stolen bases over 866 at-bats. His strikeout rate (13.4) and walk rate (9.6) have top-of-the-order upside. Last year, his bat showed growth at High A (.312/62/11/55/20 over 298 at-bats), leading to a promotion to AA (.363 over 91 at-bats with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and seven steals).

The Braves called Grissom up on August 10th. His swing played well over his first 50 at-bats (.420 with 14 runs, three home runs, 10 RBIs, and two stolen bases). Pitchers held him in check over his final 91 at-bats (.220/10/2/8/3). His approach (strikeout rate – 21.8 and walk rate – 7.1) was not far off from the major league average.

Grissom offers a high contact batting average (.383 – .373 in the minors), setting the stage for a competitive batting average in his major league career. Even with 19 home runs over 530 at-bats between the minors and Braves, his average hit rate (1.512) isn’t high enough to support a jump to 30 home runs. In addition, his exit velocity (84.6) and hard-hit rate (34.3) suggest that more strength is needed to reach his potential.

Fantasy Outlook: His combination of speed, approach, and potential power make Grissom an interesting player to follow in 2023. He projects to hit at the bottom of the Braves’ lineup, which was not a bad opportunity for Michael Harris last season. His ADP (186) in the high-stake market puts him in a range with viable players with speed. If he hits .280 with 70 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 30 steals, Grissom will be worth his investment. The bet here is on the over.

C Travis d’Arnaud

After a quiet opening month in 2021 (.220 over 82 at-bats with five runs, two home runs, and 11 RBI2), d’Arnaud landed on the injured list for almost 14 weeks with a sprained left thumb. He hit .222 with 16 runs, five home runs, and 15 RBIs over 126 at-bats to end the season.

Last year, d’Arnaud turned in a productive season (61 runs, 18 home runs, and 60 RBIs), considering his low at-bat total (396). He still does not have a year with more than 400 at-bats.

His contact batting average (.346) has been up and down over the past three seasons (2020 – .461 and 2021 – .295). D’Arnaud tends to have about a league-average strikeout rate (21.1) while setting a career-low in his walk rate (4.5). He delivered productive at-bats against lefties (.341 with 16 runs, five home runs, and 17 RBIs). His best success came in June (.304/16/7/19 over 69 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: The Braves now have two serviceable catching options, but they will be challenging to manage in the fantasy market. His ADP (216) in the NFBC prices him as the 15th-best catching option. I expect him to be a liability in runs with a chance to hit 15 home runs with 350 at-bats.

OF Sam Hilliard

Over seven seasons in the minors, Hilliard hit .276 with 436 runs, 116 home runs, 427 RBIs, and 134 stolen bases over 2,475 at-bats, highlighted by his success in 2019 at AAA (.262 with 35 home runs, 101 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases over 500 at-bats). The Rockies kept him at AAA over three seasons (.264/167/62/170/32 over 821 at-bats).

His contact batting average (.402) and average hit rate (1.795) graded well in his minor league career, but his strikeout rate (27.6) invited batting average risk.

Hilliard has 570 at-bats in the majors, leading to productive stats in runs (84), home runs (29), RBI (71), and stolen bases (15). Unfortunately, he looks overmatched at the plate (strikeout rate – 32.7) over too many at-bats while taking his fair share of walks (10.0 percent). Hilliard hit .208 against lefties with eight home runs and 16 RBIs over 125 at-bats in his major league career.

Last year, his exit velocity (92.0) and hard-hit rate (48.7) made strides with the Rockies.

Fantasy Outlook: Hilliard has upside in four categories, but he has a lot to prove in the contact department. Atlanta hopes to unlock his bat off the bench this year, possibly leading to a platoon role against right-handed pitching.

Starting Pitching

SP Spencer Strider

In his first-year season at Clemson, Strider went 5-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 70 strikeouts over 51 innings. He walked 6.2 batters per nine innings. He blew out his right elbow before the next season, requiring TJ surgery. The Braves took a flier on him in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Strider pushed his way through four levels of the minors in 2021. He went 3-7 over 22 games with a 3.64 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 94 innings. Strider pitched one clean inning with three strikeouts at AAA. In his two games in Atlanta, he allowed one run over 2.1 innings with one strikeout.

Last season, Strider made the Braves’ opening-day roster. Over his first 12 appearances, he posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, .178 BAA, and 44 strikeouts over 28.2 innings. His arm gave Atlanta 19 electric starts over the final four months of the season (2.62 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, .180 BAA, and 158 strikeouts over 103 innings. Strider completed six innings in 10 starts while tossing more than 100 pitches over his final six appearances.

His average fastball (98.1) was one of the best in baseball. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.216 BAA) while offering a devastating slider (.157 BAA) and improving show-me changeup (.136 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his progression of innings over the past two seasons, Strider looks poised to reach the 180-mark in 2022. With the same strikeout rate (13.8), he would be on a path to strike out 275 batters. His ADP (33) in the high-stakes market puts him in the elite ace category while having a higher ceiling with any growth in his command. Start the bidding at 15+ wins with an edge in ERA and WHIP with 250 strikeouts.

SP Max Fried

Over the past four seasons, Fried went 52-20 with a 3.06 ERA and 551 strikeouts over 572.2 innings. He graded well in his command (2.2 walks per nine) and his strikeout rate (8.3).

Last year Fried had the lowest walk rate (1.6), but he had a slight drop in his strikeout rate (8.3). He allowed two runs or fewer in 24 of his 30 starts, highlighted by his final 10 games (1.95 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, .193 BAA, and 53 strikeouts over 60 innings). His ERA was under 2.50 in June (2.16), July (2.13), August (2.42), and September (2.00).

Fried continues out-pitched his minor league career (19-33 with a 4.18 ERA and 417 strikeouts over 420.1 innings).

He is a ground ball pitcher (51.2) who has a slightly rising flyball rate (29.6 – 25.9 in his career). His average fastball (94.0) almost matched 2021 while relying on his three secondary pitches (curveball – .176 BAA, slider – .228 BAA), and changeup – .177 BAA). Fried did not beat the league average with his four-seamer (.265 BAA) and sinker (.267 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: His success pushes Fried to ace status without the edge in strikeouts. This draft season, his ADP (69) ranks as the 20th starting pitcher off the table. Fried ranked 15th in FPGscore (4.66) for pitchers in 2022. He averaged 94 pitches over his 30 starts while pitching into the seventh in 10 outings. His floor should be 15 wins with repeated success in ERA and WHIP while pushing his strikeout total to about 185.

SP Kyle Wright

Wright crushed fantasy teams over 17 games in the majors from 2019 and 2021. He went 2-8 with a 6.75 ERA, 42 walks, and 54 strikeouts over 64 innings. His failure came from struggles with home runs (1.8 per nine) and a disaster walk rate (5.9).

Over four seasons in the minors, Wright went 29-19 with a 3.47 ERA with 404 strikeouts over 404.1 innings. His arm played well at AAA (23-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 281 strikeouts over 278 innings). Atlanta drafted him with the fifth overall pick in 2017.

Wright showed growth in spring training last year at AAA (no runs over 7.1 innings with one walk and eight strikeouts), earning him a slot in the Braves’ starting rotation. He led the National League in wins (21) while turning into a trusted asset (3.19 ERA, 1.159 WHIP, and 174 strikeouts over 180.1 innings). He allowed two runs or fewer in 20 games.

His average fastball (95.0) offered an edge of velocity, but batters beat up his four-seamer (.356 BAA). Wright had success with his curveball (.205 BAA), sinker (.227 BAA), and changeup (.150 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Wright’s improvement in 2022 was supported by his AAA resume. His command looks ready to rock and roll, giving the Braves another arm to pitch competitive innings every five days. His ADP (122) in the NFBC prices him as a SP3 in 12 and 15-team leagues. Wright wins games, but he could have some regression in ERA and WHIP with any step back in command. Double-digit wins with a 3.50 ERA and 175 strikeouts.

SP Charlie Morton

From 2017 to 2021, Morton went 61-24 with a 3.34 ERA and 862 strikeouts over 732 innings.

Last year, his arm was more down than up over his first 12 starts (5.67 ERA, 1.475 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts over 60.1 innings). He threw the better over his next 12 starts (2.64 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, .186 BAA, and 98 strikeouts over 75 innings) despite struggling in three games (14 runs, 24 baserunners, and six home runs over 16 innings). Morton lost his way again over his final 36.2 innings (5.65 ERA, 1.445 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts).

His average fastball (94.9) lost some zip. Morton offered a dominating curveball (.177 BAA), but no other pitch created an edge (four-seamer – .251 BAA, sinker – .288 BAA, changeup – .256 BAA, and slider – .353 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The uptick in home runs allowed (1.5 per nine) paired with some decline in his fastball and command puts Morton in the fade column. His ADP (159) in the high-stakes market is much too high when considering downside risk. He remains challenging to hit (.233) while only needing more life on his fastball to keep his arm on a helpful track.

SP Mike Soroka

In late June 2019, his right forearm had some tightness, but the issue ended up being minor. After a pitch in his third start in 2020, one wrong step led to Soroka blowing out his right Achilles which required surgery in August. He never made it back to the mound for the Braves in 2021 due to a bum right shoulder in May and a setback in his Achilles (re-tear in late June that required surgery).

Last season, Soroka did not make his first appearance at AAA until August 16th due to a slow recovery from his Achilles injury. His season ended with a balky right elbow.

Over 37 starts in the majors, he went 16-6 with a 2.86 ERA and 171 strikeouts over 214 innings. His strikeout rate (7.2) was well below the best arms in the game.

His average fastball (93.0) is about league average. He gains his advantage via his slider (.172 BAA) and changeup (.120 BAA). In addition, Soroka is a sinkerball pitcher with a high ground ball rate (50.9).

Soroka went 23-22 with a 2.95 ERA and 356 strikeouts over 395.2 innings over six seasons in the minors, while offering outstanding command (1.9 walks per nine).

Fantasy Outlook: The Braves would love for Soroka to regain his expect form from 2019. Injuries have been a problem for three seasons, giving drafters no reason to follow him or chase him on drafts. His ADP (395) in the NFBC falls into the flier range if his arm shows life in spring training. Possible help in wins, ERA, and WHIP while hoping he finds more strikeout ability.

SP Ian Anderson

Over six seasons in the minors, Anderson went 18-23 with a 3.07 ERA and 494 strikeouts over 414.1 innings. His only negative was an alarming walk rate (4.1).

Anderson significantly boosted Atlanta’s starting rotation over the last five weeks of 2020. He went 3-0 over 32.1 innings with 14 strikeouts. His arm even held form over his four starts in the postseason (2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 18.2 innings).

In 2021, Anderson pitched well over his first nine starts (4-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 53 strikeouts), but he battled his command (3.7 per nine). His arm regressed over his next 45 innings (4.40 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts). He missed seven weeks over the summer with a right shoulder issue. Over his final six starts, Anderson posted a 3.62 ERA, .205 BAA, seven home runs, and 26 strikeouts over 32.1 innings.

The Braves gave him 22 starts last season to find his rhythm. Unfortunately, Anderson allowed four or more runs in nine games (36 runs, 75 baserunners, and seven home runs over 34 innings). He has a 3.01 ERA and 1.210 WHIP over his other 77.2 innings. A trip to AAA led to more disastrous games (5.40 ERA and 1.615 WHIP over 21.2 innings) before seeing his season end with an oblique injury.

His average fastball (93.9) lost about 0.6 mph. Batters struggled with his changeup (.209 BAA), but he lost the feel for his four-seamer (.303 BAA) and curveball (.286 BAA).

Anderson offered a special arm over his eight postseason starts (4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 35.2 innings). Atlanta won seven times when he stepped to the mound in the playoffs.

Fantasy Outlook: Anderson falls into last year’s bum category. He’ll have to pitch his way into the Braves’ rotation this spring. His first step is throwing more strikes. His ADP (491) puts him in the free-agent pool in all formats. Anderson has talent and upside so he is a must-follow earlier in the season.

SP Bryce Elder

Over two seasons in the minors, Elder went 17-10 with a 3.49 ERA and 252 strikeouts over 242.2 innings. Despite an up-and-down season at AAA (4.46 ERA), the Braves gave him the first call when they needed an extra starter in August and September. He went 2-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 47 strikeouts over 54 innings. His walk rate (3.8) came in high while posting a low strikeout rate (7.8).

Elder brings a short sinking fastball (91.5 mph – .227 BAA). He battled his changeup (.286 BAA) while having success with his four-seamer (.167 BAA), slider (.205 BAA), and cutter (.143 BAA). His game is built on inducing a high number of groundballs (49.3%).

Fantasy Outlook: Elder gives the Braves a viable pitching option who needs to pitch his way to success rather than rely on a big fastball. His arm should improve once he throws more strikes and earns the outside corners by umpires. There is more to his game than first meets the eye, but Elder needs an injury to clear a starting path in the majors.

Bullpen

CL Raisel Iglesias

In 2018 and 2019, Iglesias gave up 24 home runs over 139 innings (1.6 per nine). After a down season in 2019 (3-12 with a 4.16 ERA, 89 strikeouts, and 34 saves over 67 innings), Iglesias looked sharp in his 22 appearances in 2020 (2.74 ERA, 31 strikeouts, and eight saves over 23 innings). He finished with a career’s best walk rate (2.0) while inching up his strikeout rate (12.1).

In 2021, Iglesias struggled with home runs (7) over his first 29.1 innings, leading to a 4.30 ERA and 43 strikeouts while converting 12 of 15 saves. However, his arm was sensational over his final 38 games (1.33 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 40.2 innings with 22 saves).

Last season, he converted 16 of his 19 save chances for the Angels, while falling short again in ERA (4.04) due to home runs allowed (5) over 35.1 innings. After a trade to the Braves, Iglesias only gave up one run over 26.1 innings with 30 strikeouts while pitching in a setup role.

His average fastball (95.2) was a career-low. His four-seam fastball (.193 BAA) and changeup (.158 BAA) had a winning edge, but his slider (.250 BAA) and sinker (.293 BAA) lost value.

Over the last seven seasons, Iglesias went 24-36 with a 2.75 ERA, 556 strikeouts, and 157 saves over 448.1 innings.

Fantasy Outlook: This draft season Iglesias is the sixth closer off the board with an ADP of 55 in the NFBC. Iglesias looks to be on a path to a career-high in saves with an edge in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

RP A.J. Minter

Minter pushed his way through four minor league levels in two seasons (2.14 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 59 innings) to get a late-inning job in the majors in 2017. In his first two years with the Braves, he looked closer-worthy (3.18 ERA, 95 strikeouts, and 15 saves over 76.1 innings).

After a brutal 2019 (7.06 ERA and 2.011 WHIP) that required a trip back to AAA (3.57 ERA), Minter regained his form in 2020 and 2021 (4-7 with a 2.92 ERA and 81 strikeouts over 74 innings).

Last season, he threw the most strikes of his career, leading to an elite walk rate (1.9) and a step forward in his game (2.06 ERA, 0.914 WHIP, and 94 strikeouts over 70.0 innings). Other than July (seven runs and 16 baserunners over 9.1 innings with 10 strikeouts), Minter was dominating all season.

His average fastball (96.6) remains elite while relying on a plus changeup (.098 BAA) and a tough-to-hit four-seamer (.146 BAA). Minter lost the feel for his cutter (.321 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Minter has the tools to compete for the closing role, helped by his growth in command. Minter will be free on draft day, and he does make a lot of sense as a late closing in waiting (ADP – 473).

RP Kirby Yates

In 2019, Yates proved to be the real deal at closer for the Padres after part-time success in the 9th inning in 2018 (12 saves). He led the National League in saves (41) in a season when saves were tough to come by.

He rode his elite, developing split-finger fastball (.174 BAA and 52 strikeouts over 121 at-bats) to an exceptional season in ERA (1.19) and a big step forward in his command (walk rate – 1.9 and strikeout rate – 15.0). Yates had success against both right-handed (.173) and left-handed (.197) batters.

After looking sharp in his first appearance in 2020 (no runs or hits over one innings with two strikeouts), Yates blew up in his next two games (four runs and nine baserunners over 1.1 innings), setting him on a path for a lost season due to a right elbow injury. He ended up having TJ surgery the following March.

Last year, Yates made his first appearance since his surgery in August. He battled his command (five walks over seven innings) while batting an elbow issue late in the season.

He has a league-average fastball (93.4) while losing about a mile per hour from 2018 (94.6). Batters hit .250 vs. his four-seamer while continuing to have success with his split-finger fastball (.105 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Yates now has two full seasons to recover from his right elbow injury. He will open up the season in the seventh inning until his arm regains its previous form.

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