2023 Preview: Seattle Mariners

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Seattle Mariners.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Seattle Mariners

After missing the playoffs for 21 seasons, the Mariners slipped into the postseason via a wild-card berth with a 90-72 record (same as 2021). They’ve only had four other playoffs appearance in the team’s 46-year history. Seattle’s last AL West title came in 2001.

Their success came from a massive improvement in ERA (3.59 – 8th ~ 4.30 in 2021). The Mariners finished sixth in bullpen ERA (3.33), with 34 wins, 20 losses, and 40 saves over 544 innings. They scored seven fewer runs than in 2021 (697), leading to below-league-average rankings in runs (690 – 18th) and RBIs (663 – 16th) despite hitting 197 home runs (10th). Seattle had the third-lowest batting average (.230) in baseball while stealing 83 bags (17th).

The Mariners will run back the same starting rotation, which should only improve with Logan Gilbert and George Kirby gaining valuable experience and success in 2022. The addition of Luis Castillo last summer gives Seattle a legit front-line ace if he repeats his late-season command.

The only off-season signings were OF A.J. Pollock, 2B Tommy La Stella, and RP Trevor Gott. The Mariners shipped RP Erik Swanson and P Adam Divish to Toronto for OF Teoscar Hernandez. 2B Kolten Wong came in another deal with the Cardinals for OF Jesse Winker and 3B Abraham Toro.

The rise of Seattle should parallel the success of their budding young superstar OF Julio Rodriguez. The foundation of their lineup has power with a veteran presence. The Mariners would love OF Jarred Kelenic to unlock the keys to his bat.

Their bullpen has strength in relieving arms, but the Mariners need to shuffle the deck to get their best pitcher on the mound in the ninth inning.

Seattle finished 16 games behind the Astros in 2022, but the gap should be much closer this season. I expect them to be in the heat of the battle in the AL West, but the Rangers and Angels will also be more competitive.

Starting Lineup

OF Julio Rodriguez

Seattle signed Rodriguez in 2017 at the age of 17 out of the Dominican Republic. Over three seasons in the minors, he hit .331 with 177 runs, 30 home runs, 152 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases over 838 at-bats. In 2021, Rodriguez gained 174 at-bats of experience at AA (.362 with 35 runs, seven home runs, 26 RBIs, and 16 steals). His approach (strikeout rate – 18.9 and walk rate – 10.2) was better than the major league average in both areas in his minor league career. However, he missed some development time in 2017 and 2020 with left wrist and hand injuries.

Rodriguez hit his way to the Mariners’ starting lineup after a successful spring training (.412/10/3/8/3 over 34 at-bats). Seattle slipped him into their opening-day starting lineup despite never having an at-bat in AAA. Pitchers had their way with Rodriguez in April (.206 with nine runs, no home runs, and six RBIs) due to issues making contact (37.0% strikeout rate – 24.0 over his final 438 at-bats), but he did steal nine bases.

After playing better in May (.309/12/6/17/5 over 110 at-bats), he upped his production and power over his next 48 games (.275 with 34 runs, 12 home runs, 34 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). Unfortunately, a late July wrist injury (hit by a pitch) led to a stint on the injured list. Rodriguez also missed time in September with a back issue while playing through a broken fingertip. Despite these issues, his approach (strikeout rate – 22.6 ~ 25.9 for the season and walk rate – 7.5 ~ 7.1 for the year) improved over his final 146 at-bats (.315/29/10/18/4).

Rodriguez finished 15th in exit velocity (92.0) and hard-hit rate (50.7) while barreling 13.1% (28th) of his balls in play. His swing path led to the highest flyball rate (35.7) of his career at any level while posting a high HR/FB rate (21.4).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his power, speed, and potential in batting average, Rodriguez has the ideal deal skill set to hit third in the Mariners’ batting order for many seasons. His contact batting average (.396) starts in an elite area while showing more strength in the minors (.422). The jump in power wasn’t fully supported by his average hit rate (1.793) despite being a career-best. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, his ADP (4) ranks him among the best players in the game. I respect his floor and expect his approach to improve this season. Seattle may start him out again at the top of their batting order, lowering his RBI chances. Anyone drafting should view him as Alex Rodriguez from 1997 to 2000, a five-category stud on a path to a .310/100/30/90/30 floor. He finished 13th in FPGscore (6.65) for hitters in his rookie season while missing 32 games.

2B Kolten Wong

Over the past two seasons, Wong finished with similar production in all areas, but he did miss 74 games. He lost time last year with calf and left knee injuries. On the downside, his bat came up empty on most nights vs. lefties (.138 with eight runs, one home run, and three RBIs over 80 at-bats ~ .297/18/4/17 over 138 at-bats in 2021).

His strikeout rate (17.7) remains below the league average while also being his highest since 2013. Wong has done a better job taking walks (9.3% – 7.7 in his career) in three of the past four seasons. Wong saw his average hit rate (1.713) reach a new top in 2022, pointing to a push to 20+ home runs with over 500 at-bats.

Over his final 55 games, he hit .255 with 19 runs, eight home runs, 22 RBIs, and six stolen bases over 161 at-bats. Wong ranked poorly in exit velocity (87.0 – 259th) and hard-hit rate (35.5 – 226th). His HR/FB rate (11.9) was a career-high.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on the recent uptick in power and speed, some drafters will see a higher floor for Wong with more at-bats. Unfortunately, he isn’t a lock to see impact starts vs. left-handed pitching. His ADP (244) in the NFBC prices him as the 26th second base option drafted. There are hints of regression in his game. If he does not run as much this year, Wong will underperform his draft value.

1B Ty France

Over five seasons in the minors, France hit .294 with 69 home runs, 352 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases over 1,957 at-bats. His bat improved in 2018 between AA and AAA (.267 with 22 home runs, 96 RBI, and three steals over 509 at-bats). In 2019 at AAA, France turned into a beast over 296 at-bats (.399 with 83 runs, 27 home runs, and 89 RBIs) while posting a career-high in his average hit rate (1.932) and a fantastic contact batting average (.482). His walk rate (9.0) in the minors graded well, with a favorable strikeout rate (16.1).

Over the past two seasons, Seattle gave France 1,122 at-bats to prove his worth in the majors. He responded by hitting .283 with 150 runs, 38 home runs, and 157 RBIs. His bat shined over the first two months in 2022 (.355 over 197 at-bats with 23 runs, seven home runs, and 36 RBIs). He missed 12 days in June and July due to an arm issue (collision at first base). A left wrist injury flared up in late July, costing him another four games. As a result, France only hit .222 over his final 207 at-bats with 26 runs, seven home runs, and 32 RBIs.

He finished with further improvement in his strikeout rate (15.3 – 17.7 in his career), with a below-par walk rate (5.7). France continues to have a low fly-ball rate (30.7). His exit velocity (87.6 – 207th) and hard-hit rate (36.7 – 209th) don’t separate him from the field, and he has weakness in his barrel rate (5.4 – 217th).

Fantasy Outlook: In 2023, France will be compared to the first base options due to losing his second base qualification. He finished 73rd in FPGscore (0.33 ~ 0.30 in 2021 – 72nd) for hitters. His ADP (170) in the high-stakes market supports his ranking (99th for batters). I like his improved approach and success with runners on base (RBI rate – 18), but France has a fading contact batting average (.330) with only a slight rise in his average hit rate (1.589). He was on base 398 times over the past two seasons, which should keep him in a favorable part of Seattle’s batting order. France is pacing 160 combined runs and RBIs with help in batting average. I see a range of 15 to 25 in home runs, but the latter is required for a corner infield option.

OF Teoscar Hernandez

Over his first two seasons with Toronto, Hernandez hit .235 with 125 runs, 48 home runs, 122 RBIs, and 11 steals over 893 at-bats. He struck out 32% of the time with a walk rate (8.7), just above the league average.

The following three years, he had a spike in his contact batting average (.433, .405, and .383), leading to an impressive two seasons (.295 with 125 runs, 48 home runs, 150 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases over 740 at-bats). In 2022, Hernandez landed on the injured list (three weeks) seven days into the season with an oblique injury. He struggled over his first 92 at-bats (.185 with eight runs, two home runs, and 11 RBIs). Over his final 407 at-bats, his swing reached his 2020 and 2021 form (.285/63/23/66/5 over 407 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (28.4) regressed from 2021 (24.9) while coming in slightly better than his career average (29.4). He finished with a high ranking in exit velocity (92.6 – 12th) and hard-hit rate (53.3 – 6th). Hernandez has had a high HR/FB rate (22.8, 32.7, 21.9, and 21.0) over the past four seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: He was a top 10 by FPGscore (6.59 – 9th) for hitters in 2021 but only 51st in 2022 (1.54) due to him losing time. His ADP (76) in the high-stakes market ranks him the 42nd for hitters. Hernandez has had enough success over the last three seasons to be a trusted asset in the fantasy market. I’ll set his bar at .270 with 80 runs, 30 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 10 steals.

3B Eugenio Suarez

Some sharp minds in the high-stakes market gravitated toward Suarez in 2021 due to his expected edge in power while on a path to gain shortstop eligibility early in the season. Unfortunately, he didn’t have a rebound in contact batting average (.299 – .305 in 2020 and .404 in 2019), thus killing fantasy teams in one category. Suarez finished 145th for hitters in FPGscore (-2.82) with -2.63 of his total coming in batting average.

Last season, he led the league in strikeouts (196) while seeing his strikeout rate (31.2) becoming a career-high and regressing for the fifth consecutive year. His bounce back in batting average came from a three-year high in contact batting average (.369 – .299 in 2021).

His average hit rate (1.945) remained elite, but Suarez struggled again with runners on base (RBI rate – 13). He had a rebound against lefties (.269 with eight home runs and 23 RBIs over 130 at-bats).

His swing path has been fly-ball favoring (45.7%) over the past four seasons. Suarez ranked 22nd in launch angle (19.9) and 18th in barrel rate (14.8) while having a rebound in his exit velocity (89.8 – 93rd) and hard-hit rate (43.5 – 89th).

Fantasy Outlook: The thought of Suarez having a rebound in his strikeout rate seems to be a lost cause. His power remains his top asset, leading to league-average stats in runs and RBIs. His ADP (156) is 43 spots lower than in 2022 (199). At best, a .225 hitter with 75 runs, 30 home runs, and 80 RBIs. Suarez ranked 63rd in FPGscore (0.83) in 2022 for hitters.

OF AJ Pollock

Pollock was surprisingly productive in 2020 and 2021 for the Dodgers. He hit .290 with 83 runs, 37 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases over 580 at-bats. However, a hamstring issue led to two stints on the injured list and 33 missed games.

With White Sox in 2022, Pollock only had one productive month (September – .275/16/5/13/2 over 109 at-bats), but he couldn’t save his poor play over his first five months (.237 over 380 at-bats with 45 runs, nine home runs, and 43 RBIs). A hamstring injury in April led to 10 games on the injured list.

His strikeout rate (18.6) was the lowest of his past five years. Pollock had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.307 – .375 in 2021), and his average hit rate (1.583 – 1.807 in 2021) also lost momentum.

He finished with a severe drop in his HR/FB rate (9.9 – over his previous four years). His swing path led to a spike in his ground ball rate (45.2 – 39.9 in 2020 and 2021).

Fantasy Outlook: Pollock has an early ADP of 426 as the 255th batter off the board. He has a history of injuries (399 missed games from 2016 to 2022) but also a reasonable floor. Pollock isn’t a bad bench player in deep formats while needing to hit his way back on the fantasy team’s radar.

C Cal Raleigh

Raleigh emerged in 2019 between High A and AA, leading to a .251 batting average with 64 runs, 29 home runs, 82 RBIs, and four steals over 455 at-bats. In 2021, his bat showed growth at AAA (.324/34/9/36/3 over 176 at-bats). He drew some attention from fantasy managers after his callup to the majors in 2021, but his approach (52 strikeouts and seven walks over 138 at-bats) didn’t come along for the ride. He hit only .180 with two home runs and 13 RBIs.

After nine games in April (2-for-24 with one run, one home run, and one RBI) with the Mariners in 2022, Seattle sent him back to AAA (.286/4/1/4 over 28 at-bats). His power bat started to emerge in June (.250 over 80 at-bats with 10 runs, six home runs, and 14 RBIs). Over his final 70 at-bats, Raleigh hit .219 with 29 runs, 17 home runs, and 40 RBIs over 224 at-bats.

His strikeout rate (29.4) showed growth while remaining well below his minors league career (19.6). He finished with a much higher walk rate (9.2) than in 2021 (4.7). Raleigh hit 55.7% of his balls in the air, leading to a 19.1% HR/FB rate.

Fantasy Outlook: His average hit rate (2.321) at all levels supports 30+ home runs if given 450 at-bats. Raleigh is the 12th-ranked catcher in the high-stakes market with an ADP (163). His next step is improving against lefties (.212 with three home runs and 14 RBIs over 85 at-bats). I like him better as a C2, but I do expect his batting average to improve with more experience.

SS J.P. Crawford

Seattle gave Crawford 160 games to prove his worth in the majors in 2021. Volume of at-bats (619) led to a slight edge in runs (89), and his batting average (.273) beat the league average. His contact batting average (.335) improved in back-to-back years. Most of his power and RBI production came in June (.352/17/3/14/2 over 108 at-bats) and September (.312/22/3/16 over 122 at-bats).

Last year, Crawford lost momentum with his contact batting average (.288 – .335 in 2021) with a step back in his run rate (29 – 39 in 2021) and RBI rate (11 – 15 in 2021). In addition, his average hit rate (1.381)

He started the year with success in April (.360/11/3/9/1 over 75 at-bats) while finishing the season a dismal stats over the All-Star break (.211 with 16 runs, one home run, and 17 RBIs over 209 at-bats). Crawford also struggled vs. lefties (.221.18/3/19 over 154 at-bats).

On the positive side, his approach (strikeout rate – 13.3 and walk rate – 11.3) was the best of his career. He continues to have a low flyball rate (31.4) and an empty HR/FB rate (4.3).

Fantasy Outlook: Crawford has the approach to hit high in the batting order, but there are too many signs to avoid. With further regression, he may settle into a platoon role. His ADP (427) in the NFBC has a dull feel when considering his weakness in power and speed. Crawford needs a higher power output. If not, he will settle into a bench player.

OF Jarred Kelenic

The Mets drafted Kelenic sixth overall in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Over four years in the minors, he hit .295 with 209 runs, 56 home runs, 203 RBIs, and 50 stolen bases over 1,150 at-bats. Kelenic now has about a full season (477 at-bats) of experience at AAA (.302/87/27/83/15) with an above-league-average approach (strikeout rate – 19.4 and walk rate – 9.3).

Over the past two seasons with the Mariners, Kelenic only hit .168 over 500 at-bats with 61 runs, 21 home runs, and 11 stolen bases. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate (33.7) was well above his minor league resume while repeating his walk rate (9.3). He had more issues with lefties (.157/19/3/16 over 185 at-bats).

Kelenic tried to hit more home runs based on his high flyball rate (52.4) and launch angle (18.0). However, his exit velocity (86.0) and hard-hit rate (35.0) lacked punch.

Fantasy Outlook: Since arriving in the majors, Kelenic had an insanely low contact batting average (.252) compared to his minor league career (.384). So far in his career with the Mariners, he has almost twice as many strikeouts (167) as hits (84). His ADP (320) in the high-stakes market seems like a donation when staring at his low batting average and high strikeout rate. His counting stats with Seattle weren’t far off and his pedigree added to minor league stats spells winning gamble. With success in the majors, he should quickly move up the batting order. The bottom line is that Kelenic needs to have confidence at the plate. Right kind of gamble, but a hot spring training may put him on more fantasy team’s radar. Possible 20/20 player with a wide range of outcomes in batting average.

1B Evan White

Seattle drafted him with the 17th pick in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft after playing well over three college seasons (.356 with 17 home runs, 109 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases over 655 at-bats). The Mariners signed White to a six-year $24 million contract in November of 2019 despite having 18 career at-bats at AAA.

In 2019, he hit .293 over 365 at-bats at AA with 18 home runs and 55 RBIs while missing some development time due to a hip injury in April. However, his bat shined in June (.371 with eight home runs and 19 RBI over 97 at-bats).

In his first two seasons with Seattle, White has been overmatched at the plate (strikeout rate – 37.6). In 2021, he struggled over 97 at-bats (.144 with eight runs, two home runs, and nine RBIs) with some improvement in strikeouts (31). Unfortunately, his season ended in mid-May with a hip injury that needed surgery in July.

Last season, White struggled at AAA (.204/14/7/16 over 93 at-bats) while battling a sports hernia and repeated issues with his hip.

Fantasy Outlook: White is a better player than he has shown, and the Mariners believed enough in his bat to sign him early to a multi-year contract. In late January in the NFBC, White wasn’t drafted in any leagues due to his injury issues. His glove grades well, and a reinvented career could push Ty France off first base.

OF Taylor Trammell

Trammell has already been traded two twice after getting drafted in the first round (35th) in the 2016 June Amateur Draft. Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .272 with 312 runs, 50 home runs, 256 RBIs, and 126 stolen bases over 1,913 at-bats.

Fantasy managers took Trammell for a ride in 2021 after making the Mariners out of spring training. Unfortunately, contact was a massive problem (41 strikeouts over 95 plate appearances), leading to a .157 batting average with 12 runs, four home runs, 11 RBIs, and two stolen bases. At AAA, his bat had more life (.263/43/12/49/8 over 274 at-bats).

Last season, Trammell missed time with the Mariners with a hamstring, leading to two months on the injured list. His bat showed growth over limited at-bats (87) at AAA (.333/18/5/12/8) while flashing an improved approach (17 strikeouts and 11 walks). Unfortunately, Trammell has yet to solve major league pitching (.174 over 258 at-bats with 38 runs, 12 home runs, 28 RBIs, and four steals). With Seattle, Trammell whiffed 28.2% of the time in 2022.

Fantasy Outlook: Once Trammell cleans up his approach in the majors, he should be a good piece of the Mariners’ offense. He has plenty of upside in speed, and his average hit rate ranked well at AAA (1.733) and the major (2.156) over the past two years. His ADP (739) looks to be in the lost and found department in the NFBC. Trammell is a player to follow, as his speed could be relevant at some point in 2023.

Starting Pitching

SP Luis Castillo

Castillo went from a breakout ace to a painful ride in 2021. He led the National League in walks (75), creating plenty of WHIP risk (1.364). When the lights turned on opening day, his arm dug an early hole for fantasy teams (eight runs, 10 baserunners, and one home run over 3.1 innings).

After 11 starts, Castillo went 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA, 1.777 WHIP, .321 BAA, and eight home runs over 52.1 innings. He gained momentum over his next 12 games (5-2 with 1.91 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, .199 BAA, and 80 strikeouts over 75.1 innings). Castillo blew up again on August 9th (eight runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 3.1 innings). His season ended with a 2.70 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 56.2 innings.

In essence, Castillo pitched well over three-quarters of the season (3.05 ERA) while still delivering too high of a WHIP (1.257). Most of his command issues came against lefties (54 of 75 walks over 347 at-bats).

In 2022, he started the year on the injured list with a right shoulder issue. Castillo threw the ball well over his 14 games with the Reds (2.86 ERA over 85 innings with 90 strikeouts). His arm had a slight step back after a trade to Seattle (3.17 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 65.1 innings). He finished the year with a lower walk rate (2.7) while posting strength in his strikeout rate (10.0).

His average fastball (97.2) remains elite while offering two electric secondary pitches (changeup – .227 BAA and slider – .188 BAA). Castillo also dominated with his four-seamer (.160 BAA). He changed his approach to batters, leading to a much lower groundball rate (46.9 – 56.6 in 2021 and 52.7 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Castillo pitched like a front-line ace last season but missed seven starts. His ADP (63) ranks him as the 18th starter selected in the NFBC in late January. His stats last year finished 54th in FPGscore (0.19) due to a low total in wins (8) and short innings. Interesting arm, especially if Castillo builds off his late-season command. With 30 starts, a possible 15 wins with a 3.25 ERA and 200 strikeouts.

SP Robbie Ray

A trip to the American League and a home schedule in multiple smaller ballparks did not hurt Ray’s success in 2021. He led the AL in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.045), innings pitched (193.1), and strikeouts (248).

Last season, Ray had regression in his stats across the board. His arm came out flat over his first 12 starts (4.97 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 70.2 innings) due to struggles with home runs (14). He regained his 2021 form over his next 15 starts (2.27 ERA, .198 BAA, and 106 strikeouts over 91 innings) despite struggles in two games (10 runs, 19 baserunners, and three home runs over 5.2 innings). Unfortunately, Ray tripped up again over his final five starts (16 runs, 42 baserunners, and eight home runs over 27.1 innings with 29 strikeouts).

His average fastball (93.6) was 1.2 mph lower than in 2021. Ray dominated again with his slider (.190 BAA) and four-seamer (.224 BAA) while batting his sinker (.309 BAA).

He allowed 28 of his 32 home runs to right-handed batters. Ray continues to allow too many balls to land in the seats (108 over his last 608.1 innings).

Fantasy Outlook: Ray checks the improved command box, highlighted by the best first-pitch strikeout rate (64) of his career. His drop in velocity, paired with issues with home runs, could lead to more off days. Ray has an ADP of 97 in the high-stakes market. A risk/reward ADP (97) with drafters focusing on his strikeouts.

SP George Kirby

Seattle snatched up Kirby with the 20th selection in the 2019 June Amateur Draft. He dominated over his final two years in college (18-5 with a 2.82 ERA and 203 strikeouts over 178.2 innings). His highlight stat came in 2019 when he walked only six batters over 88.1 innings.

The Mariners gave him nine appearances at Low A 2019, leading to a 2.35 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 23 innings while not walking a batter. In 2021, Kirby breezed through High A and AA (5-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 80 strikeouts over 67.2 innings) while missing sometime midsummer with a left shoulder issue.

Seattle gave Kirby six starts in the minors last season (2-1 with a 3.04 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 26.2 innings). With the Mariners, he struggled in three of his first 10 starts, leading to a 4.08 ERA, 49 strikeouts, and 12 home runs over 53 innings. His future upside shined through over his next 12 games (5-1 with a 2.09 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, .241 BAA, and 74 strikeouts over 64.2 innings). Unfortunately, he tripped up over his final three appearances (10 runs, 25 baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over 12.1 innings).

Kirby struggled against righties (.324 with nine home runs over 244 at-bats). His average fastball (95.5) offered an edge in velocity, and batters only hit .204 against his four-seamer. None of his secondary pitches graded as an asset (slider – .310 BAA, changeup – .313 BAA, sinker – .281 BAA, and curveball – .318 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Blessed with an elite fastball and impeccable command, Kirby feels like a rising ace with 156.2 innings under his belt. The missing link in his ceiling is the finishing power of his secondary pitches. His ADP (97) in the NFBC puts him in the SP2 conversation in 15-team formats. Kirby looks poised to be a difference-maker in WHIP with a sub-3.00 ERA and a chance at 200 strikeouts with 32 starts.

SP Logan Gilbert

Over his last two seasons in college, Gilbert went 21-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 270 strikeouts over 201.1 innings. Seattle drafted him with the 14th overall pick in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.

After five great starts at A-Ball in 2019 (1.59 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 22.2 innings), Gilbert held form at High A (1.73 ERA and 73 strikeouts over 62.1 innings). His arm also performed well after a promotion to AA (2.88 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 50 innings).

In 2021, Seattle pushed him to the majors after one start at AAA (one runs over five innings with no walks and five strikeouts). Over his first 11 starts with the Mariners, Gilbert went 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 54 innings. His arm went backward over his next seven starts (8.72 ERA, .321 BAA, and eight home runs over 32 innings). In September, he threw the ball well over 33.1 innings (2.70 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts).

Gilbert gave fantasy teams an excellent first 21 starts last season (10-4 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, .234 BAA, and 118 strikeouts over 123 innings). The Yankees drilled him in his next two appearances (13 runs, 22 baserunners, and four home runs over 9.1 innings). He pitched at a high level again over his final nine games (2.53 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts over 53.1 innings).

His average fastball (96.1) had plus velocity, but batters hit 14 of their 20 home runs off his four-seamer (.254 BAA). Gilbert flashed a winning slider (.219 BAA) with growth with his changeup (.122 BAA). His curveball (.241 BAA) regressed slightly.

Fantasy Outlook: His draft value will get a knock for his lower strikeout rate (8.4), but Gilbert has the fastball and secondary pitches to be much improved in this area in 2023. His ADP (113) in the high-stakes market is a buying opportunity. Without three poor starts, he had a 2.52 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts over 171.1 innings last year. More of the same with a rise in strikeouts.

SP Marco Gonzalez

After two starts in 2021, Gonzales already allowed 12 runs, 22 baserunners, and five home runs over 10.1 innings. By the end of April, he was on the injured list for five weeks with a left forearm strain. Gonzales went 10-5 over his final 23 starts with a 3.45 ERA and 100 strikeouts over 133 innings. Over this span, he served up 24 home runs (1.6 per nine). Gonzales allowed 12 runs, 19 baserunners, and five home runs over 8.1 innings in his two other disaster starts. His regression in long balls came vs. right-handed batters (.242 BAA with 23 home runs, 37 walks, and 79 strikeouts over 392 at-bats).

Last season, Gonzales overachieved over his first 17 starts (3.24 ERA over 94.1 innings with 49 strikeouts) based on his struggles with home runs (14) and WHIP (1.314). The Real McCoy arrived over his final 15 appearances (5.08 ERA, 1.353 WHIP, .289 BAA, and 54 strikeouts over 88.2 innings) while serving up another 16 home runs.

His average fastball (88.7) has no chance of improving velocity, but it has surprising value (.198 against his four-seamer). Batters succeeded against his other pitches (changeup – .262, cutter – .321 BAA, curveball – .271 BAA, and sinker – .329 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: With a sliding strikeout rate (5.1) and struggles with home runs (59 over his last 326.1 innings), Gonzales belongs nowhere near a fantasy team. The best advice is to leave him off your cheat sheet.

SP Matt Brash

After pitching well over three seasons in college (12-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 215 strikeouts over 190.2 innings), the Padres selected Brash in the fourth round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. The Mariners acquired him in the summer of 2020 for SP Taylor Williams.

In his first entire season in the minors in 2021, Brash went 6-4 between High A and AA with a 2.31 ERA and 142 strikeouts over 97.1 innings. His walk rate (4.4) needs plenty of work while posting an elite strikeout rate (13.1).

In 2022, Brash pitched his way onto the Mariners’ starting rotation out of spring training. His lack of command (17 walks over 20 innings) led to a 7.65 ERA and 19 strikeouts and a trip back to AAA (3.46 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 26 innings). When he returned to the majors, Seattle pitched him out of the bullpen (2.35 ERA, .202 BAA, and 43 strikeouts over 30.2 innings). Brash walked 5.9 batters per nine innings in the majors.

His average fastball (97.5) was electric while offering two swing-and-miss pitches (slider – .144 BAA and curveball – .190 BAA). Brash must improve the location of his four-seamer (.333 BAA and .505 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: I don’t see any way that Marco Gonzales survives the season as Seattle’s fifth starter. Brash has the stuff to shine in the majors, even with weakness in his command. His ADP (473) in the high-stakes market will surely rise in spring training. Home run type of swing, but he does bring WHIP risk early in his career.

SP Chris Flexen

Flexen battled his way through eight seasons in the minors, leading to a 43-31 record with a 3.61 ERA and 513 strikeouts over 588 innings. However, his lack of success at AAA (4.43 ERA and 179 strikeouts over 170.2 innings) and with the Mets (3-11 with an 8.07 ERA and 49 strikeouts over 68 innings) led him to a trip to Korea. His stuff played well overseas in 2020 (8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 132 strikeouts over 116.2 innings).

With the Mariners in 2021, Flexen had five disaster games (25 runs, 46 baserunners, and six home runs over 21.2 innings) over his 31 starts. He had a 2.68 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, and 109 strikeouts over his other 158 innings.

Last season, he has a 3.92 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts over 117 innings over his first 21 starts. Flexen pitched out of the bullpen for 11 of his final 12 appearances (2.61 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 20.2 innings).

His struggles with right-handed batters (.275 with 13 home runs over 280 at-bats – .297 with nine home runs over 371 at-bats in 2021) should be a red flag.

His average fastball (91.8) was one mph less than in 2021. Flexen has plus changeup (.165 BAA) and slider (.058 BAA), but batters had success with his four-seamer (.295 BAA), cutter (.263 BAA), and curveball (.571 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Flexen had regression in his walk rate (3.3) and strikeout rate (6.2). His ceiling is relatively low, but he can offer some serviceable innings when throwing strikes. I view him as a better option than Marco Gonzales, so Flexen may see more starts than expect early in the season. He’ll be found in the free-agent pool in all formats.

Bullpen

CL Andres Munoz

Over five seasons in the minors, Munoz went 9-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 157 strikeouts over 109.2 innings while converting 14 saves. He struggled with walks (5.4 per nine) in his minor league career.

The Padres called him up to the majors in mid-July in 2019, which led to an outstanding 21.1 innings to start his career (1.69 ERA and 27 strikeouts). Unfortunately, Munoz blew out his right elbow in March of 2020, leading to TJ surgery. In 2021, he made five appearances between the minors and the majors (two runs, four baserunners, and eight strikeouts over 41. Innings).

Last season, Munoz teased closing upside in April (two runs, seven baserunners, 14 strikeouts, and one save over seven innings), but he lost his way over his next 15 games (10 runs, 21 baserunners, and four home runs over 13.1 innings with 11 strikeouts). From the middle of June to the end of the season, Munoz had only two shaky appearances (five runs and five baserunners over two innings) over his 42 games, leading to a 1.67 ERA, 0.672 WHIP, .141 BAA, and 71 strikeouts over 44.2 innings) while securing only three saves.

His average fastball (100.3) is one of the best in the game while featuring a dominating slider (.131 BAA – 64.5% usage). Batters had more success than expected with his four-seamer (.338 BAA – .256 over the final three and a half months).

After the season, Munoz had surgery on his right foot. The Mariners expect him to be ready for the start of the season.

Fantasy Outlook: Drafters will fight for the right to ride Munoz in 2023. His finish to the season added to his electric slider and dominating fastball points to a rising closing arm. He found his command last year, setting up an elite ceiling in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. The trick with his arm is not getting beat by the Seattle manager mixing in multiple arms to finish games. His ADP (145) in the NFBC puts Munoz in the bet on the come category for saves. Even with four saves in 2022, he ranked 105th for pitchers by FPGscore (-3.43). With 30+ saves, Munoz will beat or match the closers drafted much earlier than him.

RP Paul Sewald

Sewald started his major league career with a 1-14 record over 147.1 innings with the Mets, leading to a 5.50 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, and 151 strikeouts. With Seattle in 2021, he had his breakthrough season at age 31 (10-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 64.2 innings with 11 saves). Despite his success, he still served up 1.4 home runs per nine, with work to do with his walk rate (3.3). His jump in strikeout rate (14.5 – 9.2 from 2017 to 2020) was the key to his success.

Last season, Sewald missed some time in April (no runs over five innings with no walks and five strikeouts) with Covid-19. He tripped up in three games in May (3.86 ERA) while converting two of his three save chances. Over the final four months, Sewald had pockets of saves (18-for-22), but home runs (8) were a problem over his 47.1 innings of work (2.66 ERA, 0.761 WHIP, and 56 strikeouts) despite being challenging to hit (.144 BAA).

His walk rate (2.4) was the best of his career, but Sewald lost some of his strikeout ability (10.1 per nine). He continues to have issues with home runs (1.4 per nine).

Sewald has a below-par fastball (92.5 mph), but it was the best of his career. Batters had five home runs off his four-seamer (.141 BAA) and slider (.161).

Fantasy Outlook: There is no dismissing that Sewald is challenging to hit (.176 in 2021 and .146 in 2022), and his improved command helps minimize the damage with bad innings. He pitches up in the strike zone (fly ball rate – 53.0 in 2021 and 51.0 in 2022), inviting his mistakes to leave the yard. His ADP (182) in the high-stakes market in January is a semi-bet by drafters that he’ll remain in the Mariners mix for saves. Last season, he ranked 47th by FPGscore (0.65). I can’t overpay for him when I believe Andres Munoz is the stud reliever to roster in this bullpen. At the same time, I can’t avoid him if his ADP slides in March due to a late start to spring training (recovering from minor heel and elbow surgeries).

RP Diego Castillo

Over the first month of the season in 2020, Castillo worked in a setup role for the Rays, leading to a 2.53 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 10.2 innings. He pitched well with the closing job late in August (3-for-3 in save conversions) when Nick Anderson went on the injured list.

In 2021, Tampa awarded him their closing role over the first half of the season. Castillo converted 14 of his 16 chances with a 2.72 ERA and 49 strikeouts over 36.1 innings. After a late July trade to the Mariners, he worked more in a setup role (2.86 ERA, 26 strikeouts, and two saves over 22 innings).

Castillo lost his command last season, leading to a setback in his walk rate (3.6) and strikeout rate (8.8). The Mariners pitched at different points in the game, allowing him to pick up seven wins and seven saves. After posting a 1.86 ERA, nine strikeouts, and one save in April over 9.2 innings, Castillo crushed the decimals of fantasy teams over his next six games (11 runs, 15 baserunners, and three strikeouts over 3.1 innings). His arm regained value over the next 31 games (0.88 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, .120 BAA, and 33 strikeouts over 30.2 innings), earning him six wins, four saves, and six holds. Unfortunately, he gave away some of his gains with a poor September (5.06 ERA over 10.2 innings).

His average fastball (95.8) remains about three mph lower than his peak in 2018 (98.9). Batters had better than league-average success with his sinker (.274 BAA), but Castillo still has an elite slider (.175 BAA). He landed on the injured list in late July with right shoulder inflammation.

Fantasy Outlook: Castillo has the tools to close games when he is throwing strikes. He did a better job keeping the ball in the yard in 2022, but his down days and regressing command should keep him away from the 9th inning in most games this season unless Andres Munoz has an injury. His ADP (586) in the NFBC puts him on the back burner for saves for the Mariners. Castillo fits the handcuff mode in this bullpen.

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