Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Oakland Athletics.
Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)
2023 Oakland Athletics
After posting a winning record from 2018 to 2021 (316-230 – .579%), Oakland lost its mooring in the AL West, leading to their worst season (60-102) since 1979. They finished a mere 46 games out of first place. The A’s have had three playoff pockets beginning in 2000, where they made the playoffs for at least three consecutive years in each instance. Their last World Series win came in 1989. Over the team’s 122-year history, the A’s have nine World Championships in 14 chances.
Oakland’s demise came from a bottom-tier offense in runs (568 – 29th), home runs (137 – 27th), and RBIs (537 – 29th). They finished last in batting average (.216) while stealing 78 bases (18th). The A’s pitching staff posted a 4.52 ERA (24th). In addition, their bullpen had 20 wins, 28 losses, and 34 saves over 576 innings with a 4.31 ERA (24th).
In the offseason, Oakland signed 1B Jesus Aguilar, 2B Aledmys Diaz, 3B Jace Peterson, SP Drew Rucinski, and RP Trevor May to their major league roster. In addition, the A’s acquired OF Esteury Ruiz and C Manny Pina from the Brewers, P Kyle Muller, P Roy Salinas, and P Freddy Tarnok for C Sean Murphy in a three-way deal. They also imported SP Shintaro Fujinami from Japan.
The A’s offense needs to be rebuilt with foundation middle-of-the-order power bats. The catcher and centerfield positions appear to be in good hands, and Nick Allen does have some upside at shortstop. Oakland should run more this year while continuing to rank poorly in runs scored and home runs.
Their bullpen and starting rotation lack youth and upside. Oakland has some talent in the minors at starting pitching, but it will not help them too much in 2023. I expect another poor finish in pitching stats and a bottom-dwelling finish in the AL West.
Starting Lineup
OF Esteury Ruiz
Ruiz had a quiet first four seasons in the minors (.263 over 205 runs, 32 home runs, 169 RBIs, and 144 stolen bases over 1,293 at-bats). His bat had significant improvement in 2021 and 2022, leading to impressive stats in runs (114), stolen bases (85), and batting average (.332) over only 437 at-bats. Ruiz even showed more power (16 home runs and 65 RBIs) while improving his approach (strikeout rate – 17.4 and walk rate – 12.2).
The Padres and Brewers gave him only 35 at-bats last season, but he only hit .171 with three runs, no home runs, two RBIs, and one steal. His exit velocity (73) and hard-hit rate (10.7) ranked 598th and 596th, respectively, for batters with a minimum of 25 plate appearances.
Ruiz showed a bump in his line drive rate (33.1) last season at AA while not offering a high-volume groundball swing path at any level last year.
Fantasy Outlook: His growth last year was impressive, and he appeared to be much stronger (I see two different listings on his weight – 169 and 200). The trade to A’s fits the perfect value shopping by Billy Beane. His ADP (250) has crept higher over the past month, but Ruiz should easily outperform his price point by just filling the stolen base category. His bat has a lot to prove in the majors, but he has a feel of Jose Reyes in his fantasy profile. His contact batting average (.423) in the minors in 2022 isn’t repeatable in his first season with Oakland, and his approach should regress early in his major league career. In his rookie season, I will set his bar at .260 with 80 runs, double-digit home runs, 50 RBIs, and 50+ steals. Ruiz is a player I’m willing to fight for in drafts.
OF Ramon Laureano
Nine games into 2021, fantasy managers had the feeling they struck gold with Laureano based on his insane start in steals (eight in nine tries) and his early success (11-for-36 with eight runs, one home run, and four RBI) over nine games. Unfortunately, he finished April with no more stolen bases and an empty bat (.172/5/2/5 over 58 at-bats). However, his production rebounded over his next 30 games (.297 with 21 runs, 10 home runs, and 18 RBIs over 111 at-bats) while not attempting a stolen base. Major league baseball suspended him for 80 games in early August, which may have been reflected in his play over his final 34 games (.221/9/1/12/4 over 136 at-bats).
In 2022, Laureano didn’t see his first action until May 8th due to his overlapping suspension. He had empty stats over his first 48 at-bats (.167/7/0/1/2), followed by a slight uptick in play (.275/15/4/12/5 over 120 at-bats). His bat limped home over the final three months (.180/27/9/21/4 over 178 at-bats) while missing 36 days with hamstring and oblique injuries.
Laureano has been a bust in three consecutive seasons. His strikeout rate (27.2) remains high, with a further step back in his walk rate (6.5). In addition, he has been horrible with runners on base in 2021 and 2022 based on his RBI rates (13 and 11). Laureano has a reasonable average hit rate (1.781), but his contact batting average (.302) last season is well below his 2019 season (.402).
He did not have strength in his exit velocity (88.7 – 165th) or hard-hit rate (38.4 – 173rd), but Laureano finished with a career-high in his flyball rate (39.3).
Fantasy Outlook: There is no doubt the A’s will move Laureano quickly if his bat heats up in 2023. With 500 at-bats, he should deliver 20+ home runs and 15+ steals with minimal improvement. If his approach improves, his batting average and counting stats should finish close to the league average. Since earning starting playing time with Oakland, Laureano has never had more than 435 at-bats. His ADP (249) in the NFBC fits his profile, but not his results on the field.
2B Tony Kemp
Before 2021, Kemp worked off the bench for the Astros, Cubs, and A’s. Over his first 750 major league at-bats, he hit .235 with 104 runs, 15 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 19 steals.
In 2021, he had an improved opportunity, leading career highs in almost all of his stats. His batting average (.279), paired with his walk rate (13.1), gave the A’s a viable leadoff bat. Kemp also lowered his strikeout rate (12.7) with Oakland. Despite the appearance of success, he never had over 85 at-bats in any month. His approach (17 walks and 18 strikeouts) held up against left-handed pitching, but Kemp only hit .240 with two home runs and 10 RBIs over 75 at-bats. Over his final 30 games, he hit .363 with 17 runs, four home runs, 16 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 91 at-bats.
The weakness in the A’s starting lineup led to Kemp again setting career highs in 2022. Unfortunately, his contact batting average (.273) was well below 2021 (.330), with regression as well in his average hit rate (1.419) and walk rate (8.1 – 13.1 in 2020 and 2021). Kemp had no business being in the starting lineup vs. lefties (.219/7/1/8 over 73 at-bats). His season ended with better play over his final 184 at-bats (.272 with 29 runs, three home runs, 25 RBIs, and five stolen bases).
Kemp played well over six seasons in the minor (.312 with 409 runs, 25 home runs, 233 RBIs, and 144 stolen bases over 2,187 at-bats).
He finished last year with a reasonable launch angle (15.0) while ranking poorly in barrel rate (1.6), hard-hit rate (14.9), and exit velocity (84.4).
Fantasy Outlook: With a fly swatter for a bat and no edge in any area in his game, Kemp doesn’t belong in the A’s lineup every day. Oakland should give him playing time vs. righties until a better option emerges. His ability to put the ball in play should help his chance of hitting behind Esteury Ruiz. However, I don’t expect him to be a fantasy asset in any format. His FPGscore (-3.49) ranked as the 153rd batter in 2022.
1B Jesus Aguilar
The move to play with the Marlins treated Aguilar well in 2021 and 2022. His RBI rate (21.3) has been exceptional. He hit .265 over his 637 at-bats with 80 runs, 30 home runs, and 127 RBIs. When at his best in 2018, Aguilar had a high average hit rate (1.963) and contact batting average (.387). He missed the final 25 games in 2021 with a left knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery in late September.
Last season, Aguilar stumbled in April (.231/5/1/1/6 over 65 at-bats), followed by underwhelming play over the following three months (.246 with 28 runs, 11 home runs, and 37 RBIs over 289 at-bats). The Marlins released him in late August, leading a step back in playing time with the Orioles in September. He only hit .209 over his final 110 at-bats, with six runs, four home runs, and eight RBIs.
Aguilar had a spike in his strikeout rate (23.5 – 18.2 in 2021), but his walk rate (5.5) was a career-low.
His fly-ball rate (45.1) remains above his career average (41.7), but Aguilar continues to rank lower than expected in his HR/FB rate (10.1). His launch angle (19.1 – 32nd) improved slightly while losing momentum in his exit velocity (87.7 – 215th) and hard-hit rate (36.0 – 218th).
Fantasy Outlook: The move to Oakland doesn’t project well in runs, and Aguilar’s upside in home runs looks tricky. His ADP (651) puts him in the free-agent pool in all formats. I expect him to be picked up early in the season if the A’s give him everyday at-bats in the middle of their batting order. I have him on a path to hit .250 with 55 runs, 20 home runs, and 65 RBIs, with a rebound in his approach.
3B Aledmys Diaz
Diaz was serviceable in 2016 (.300/71/17/65/4 over 404 at-bats) and 2018 (.263/55/18/55/3 over 422 at-bats) when he had his best opportunity for starting at-bats. Over four seasons with Houston, Diaz hit .255 with 107 runs, 32 home runs, 129 RBIs, and three steals over 867 at-bats.
In 2020, his season started with about five weeks on the injured list with a groin injury that came in his first game played. Diaz then battled a quad issue that cost him another two weeks in September. A broken left hand led to a couple of missed months in 2021. Last season, he missed time with left shoulder and groin injuries.
His strikeout rate (16.2) improved from 2020 (20.3) and 2021 (19.4) while continuing to have a low walk rate (5.5).
Fantasy Outlook: Diaz has enough experience in the majors to land a starting job for the A’s due to their rebuilding process. His ADP (413) in the NFBC in late January makes him an overlooked player based on his potential to see a significant bump in at-bats. Diaz has a streaky bat, pointing to above-average replacement stats. Possible 60/16/60 player.
OF Seth Brown
Brown had a slow rise through the A’s system over six seasons. However, his bat emerged in 2017 at High A (.270/80/30/109/7 over 518 at-bats). He continued to improve at AA and AAA before finally getting his chance with the A’s at age 28.
Oakland gave him platoon at-bats against right-handing pitching (.220/19/46 over 259 at-bats) in 2021. Brown only had 22 at-bats vs. lefties (3-for-22 with one home run and two RBI).
Last season, the A’s gave him 500 at-bats, leading to help in three categories (home runs – 25, RBIs – 73, and steals – 11). Brown finished 80th in FPGscore (-0.21) despite being a liability in runs (55) and batting average (.230). His strikeout rate (26.3) showed growth while setting a new top in his walk rate (9.2).
He finished with a lower high flyball rate (44.1%) to the majors, with a slide in his launch angle (15.8 – 20.9 in 2021). His best rating came in barrel rate (31.1 – 30th).
Fantasy Outlook: Brown offers plenty of power with an improving approach. His bat continues to be a liability against left-handed pitching (.174 with three home runs and 12 RBIs over 92 at-bats) due to a high strikeout rate (30.3). His ADP (211) in the high-stake market has a risk/reward feel. I could see a regression to 450 at-bats, making him challenging to manage in 10 and 12-team formats. His average hit rate (1.930) supports 30+ home runs and he may surprise in batting average.
C Shea Langeliers
Over the past two seasons, Langeliers found his power stroke (41 home runs and 109 RBIs) between AA and AAA with a .270 batting average, 121 runs, and six stolen bases. His strikeout rate (24.3) came in higher than the league average while offering a favorable walk rate (10.4).
With A’s, Langeliers flashed power (six home runs and 22 RBIs over 142 at-bats) due to a much weaker approach (strikeout rate – 34.6 and walk rate – 5.9).
Fantasy Outlook: Oakland will give Langeliers plenty of at-bats this season, but his batting average will have risk early in his career. I expect his power, runs, and RBIs to work fine for a C2 in deep formats. His ADP (283) is depressed due to his UT-only qualification in the high-stakes market. Based on his price point, I would be happy with a 50/15/50 type of season while letting the chips fall with his value in batting average.
SS Nick Allen
Allen hit .267 over 1,399 at-bats with 201 runs, 12 home runs, 130 RBIs, and 69 stolen bases over five seasons. His best stats came in 2021 between AA and AAA (.288 with 48 runs, six home runs, 41 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases). His walk rate (8.3) and strikeout rate (17.4) came in better than the league average.
The A’s gave him 299 at-bats in his rookie season, leading to 31 runs, four home runs, 19 RBIs, and three stolen bases with weakness in batting average (.207). He stuck out 19.6% of the time, with a step back in his walk rate (5.8).
His average hit rate has never been over 1.500.
Fantasy Outlook: Allen should see plenty of time for the A’s, thanks to his glove. Even with a 10/15 season, his production will fall short of a starting player in almost all formats. His ADP (597) puts him in the free-agent pool in 2023.
OF Cristian Pache
The Braves signed Pache as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2015. Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .278 with 272 runs, 36 home runs, 235 RBIs, and 68 stolen bases over 2,127 at-bats. However, he failed to hit a home run over his first two seasons (689 at-bats) while offering a weak average hit rate (1.235).
Pache picked up 43 steals on 63 attempts over his first two years, but his baserunning was a lost asset in 2018 (7-for-15), 2019 (8-for-19), and 2021 (9-for-16). At the same time, he started to get stronger, leading to 27 home runs over his last 965 at-bats in the minors.
So far, in his time with Atlanta and Oakland, Pache has been overmatched (.156 with 24 runs, four home runs, 22 RBIs, and two steals over 308 at-bats). His strikeout (26.9) did improve last season while still having plenty of work to do. He finished the year with a massive groundball swing path (57.1%) and poor launch angle (3.8).
Fantasy Outlook: Until Pache shows more loft in the majors with a much better approach, he’ll offer minimal value to fantasy teams. The A’s will hit at the bottom of their low-scoring lineup, and Pache has yet to prove he can hit against righties (.138/11/2/9 over 159 at-bats with Oakland).
2B Jordan Diaz
Diaz failed to make an impact over his first four seasons in the minors. He hit .274 over 796 at-bats with 102 runs, 23 home runs, 130 RBIs, and five stolen bases. His bat improved significantly in 2022 (.326/67/19/83 over 491 at-bats) between AA and AAA. Diaz has been tough to strike out (14.7%) in the minors with a below-par walk rate (6.2).
The A’s gave him 49 at-bats last season, leading to minimal production (.265/3/0/1).
Fantasy Outlook: Diaz has 120 at-bats of experience at AAA. Oakland should start him out in the minors until he hits his way to the majors. His glove isn’t ideal, pointing to third base or left field as his best future positions. I expect him to improve this year, and his ability to control the strike zone is his ticket to success at the next level.
OF Ryan Noda
The A’s selected Noda in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. Over his five years in the minors, he hit .264 with 361 runs, 94 home runs, 361 RBIs, and 58 stolen bases over 1,843 at-bats. At every level, Noda showed the ability to take walks (17.6%) while having some weakness in his strikeout rate (26.8).
His average hit rate (1.840) and contact batting average (.398) give him 30+ home run power and a reasonable floor in batting average. He has a full season of experience at AAA (.259/86/25/90/20 over 464 at-bats), giving him a chance to hold his own in his first year in the majors.
Fantasy Outlook: Noda has been an older player at each level of the minors. His balance skill set and on-base skills should play well in his rookie season. The A’s must keep him on the major league roster or offer him back to the Dodgers. For now, only a player to follow while keeping an open mind if Noda earns a starting opportunity.
OF Conner Capel
Over six seasons in the minors, Capel hit .251 over 2,109 at-bats with 308 runs, 64 home runs, 277 RBIs, and 77 stolen bases. His bat improved slightly in his three experiences at AAA (.269/116/26/100/29 over 740 at-bats). His walk rate (9.7) grades well with a league-average strikeout rate (19.8).
Capel had 52 at-bats of experience with the A’s and Cardinals, leading to reasonable success (.308 with seven runs, three home runs, 11 RBIs, and one steal).
Fantasy Outlook: The A’s will give Capel a chance to make their roster this spring. His average hit rate had growth over the past two seasons, pointing to an uptick in power with complementary speed.
Starting Pitching
SP Ken Waldichuk
The starting pitching cupboard is bare in Oakland, giving Waldichuk the inside track to be their ace in 2023. Over his three seasons in the minors, he went 12-9 with a 3.03 ERA and 349 strikeouts over 234.1 innings. His walk rate (3.6) has been high throughout his career while offering elite strikeout ability (13.4 per nine).
Last season, he made 15 starts at AAA (3.53 ERA and 91 strikeouts over 66.1 innings) before earning his major league opportunity. Waldichuk struggled over his first five starts (18 runs, 33 baserunners, and five home runs over 22.2 innings) with the A’s before flashing his upside over his final two games (one run over 12 innings with three walks and 12 strikeouts).
His average fastball (94.2) came in slightly above the league average. Waldichuk offered a plus slider (.094 BAA), along with success with his changeup (.219 BAA) and show-me curveball (no hits over five at-bats). However, batters beat up his four-seam fastball (.342 BAA and .633 SLG).
Fantasy Outlook: After pitching 129.2 innings last season, Oakland should give him every opportunity to make 30 starts. Waldichuk starts the season at age 25, so it’s showtime for his major league career. Pitching at home for the A’s should be a win, but he will offer WHIP risk out of the gate and weakness in victories. His ADP (399) in the NFBC fits well for a fantasy team looking to add strikeout to the backend of their pitching staff. He must throw more strikes and command his fastball better in and out of the strike zone to reach an impact ceiling. Possible sub 3.50 ERA and 175 strikeouts.
SP Kyle Muller
The Braves gave Muller 12 games in the majors over the past two seasons, but he had disaster around almost every corner (3-5 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.367 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts over 49 innings) due to an extremely high walk rate (5.1).
Over six seasons in the minors, Muller went 31-22 with a 3.18 ERA and 588 strikeouts over 541 innings. His arm progressed over two years at AAA (3.40 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts over 214.1 innings).
Last year with Atlanta, his average fastball (94.4) beat the league average. Muller features an upside slider and curveball while waiting for his changeup to come along for the ride.
Fantasy Outlook: For Muller to become a playable arm in the fantasy market, he must throw more strikes. I expect him to win a starting job for Oakland this spring. He should improve as the season moves up. His ADP (461) is a borderline roster in deep formats. Muller has strikeout upside and WHIP in 2023.
SP James Kaprielian
Kaprielian allowed three runs or fewer in 14 of his first 16 starts with A’s in 2021, leading to a 3.25 ERA and 87 strikeouts over 88.2 innings. He appeared to have a dead arm over his final 30.2 innings (6.46 ERA, seven home runs, and 36 strikeouts).
Last year, Kaprielian failed to earn a win over his first 11 starts due to failure in ERA (5.88) and WHIP (1.442) while allowing 11 home runs over 52 innings. Over his final 15 games, he went 5-4 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, .231 BAA, and 62 strikeouts over 82 innings.
His average fastball (94.0) showed more life than in 2021 (93.1) Kaprielian offered a winning slider (.206 BAA) and curveball (.222 BAA). Batters had 10 home runs off his four-seam fastball (.250 BAA). He also had some success with his sinker (.200 BAA) while losing the feel for his changeup (.333 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Kaprielian continues to have a poor walk rate (4.0). He lost his strikeout ability (6.6 per nine), creating weakness in his WHIP (1.343) and too many short outings. His ADP (614) in the high-stakes market puts him in the free-agent pool in all formats, but his finish to last year hints at better results in 2023. He had right shoulder surgery in the offseason to hopefully correct his command issue. The A’s expect him to be ready for spring training.
SP Shintaro Fujinami
Fujinami pitched well in Japan over his first four seasons (43-32 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, and 705 strikeouts over 675.2 innings). His highlight season at age 22 came in 2015 (14-7 with a 2.40 ERA and 221 strikeouts over 199 innings).
Since 2016, he has not pitched more than 135 innings in any year. Over his last six seasons, Fujinami averaged only 4.2 innings over his 148 appearances with a 3.40 ERA and 653 strikeouts over 626.2 innings. His downfall has been his extremely high walk rate (4.7). He threw 161 pitches in one game in July of 2016.
In early January, the A’s signed him to a one-year deal worth $3.25 million. Fujinami brings a mid-90 fastball with more upside, plus a swing-and-miss slider. Last season in Japan, he walked 3.0 batters per nine, leading to a 2.77 ERA and 115 strikeouts over 107.1 innings.
Fantasy Outlook: Oakland must unlock his command, which could lead to an impressive turnaround in his ERA and WHIP. His big fastball, paired with his slider, would play well in a closer role if Fujinami throws more strikes. In late January, he had a flier ADP (591) in the NFBC. I’ll follow his progress in spring training as Fujinami could be the “buzz guy” in A’s camp. Keep an open mind, as his arm has a much higher ceiling if he pitches with more confidence.
SP Paul Blackburn
Over his first six seasons in the minors, Blackburn went 34-23 with a 3.21 ERA and 344 strikeouts over 496 innings. He held form in ERA (3.22) and WHIP (1.261) in 2017 in his 10 starts with the A’s, but Blackburn managed only 22 strikeouts over 58.2 innings. His season ended in August with a right wrist injury.
In 2018, he developed a right forearm injury that led to a couple of months on the injured list to start the year. Blackburn was back on the shelf with a right elbow issue within a month. His arm lost value between 2019 and 2021 at AAA (4.59 ERA and 172 strikeouts over 221.1 innings).
Surprisingly, Blackburn made Oakland’s starting rotation out of spring training last season. Over his first 13 starts, he went 6-2 with a 2.26 ERA, 1.074 WHIP, .225 BAA, and 51 strikeouts over 71.2 innings. Unfortunately, his success was short-lived as the A’s hung him out to dry on July 24th (10 runs, 12 baserunners, and two home runs over 4.1 innings), giving Blackburn a brutal run over six starts (31 runs, 51 baserunners, and eight home runs over 29.2 innings). His season ended on the injured list with a finger injury on his right hand.
His average fastball (91.7) was a career-best while remaining well below the league average. Blackburn offered a reasonable sinker (.265 BAA), with a viable curveball (.158 BAA) and slider (.160 BAA). Batters ripped his cutter (.368 BAA) and changeup (.302 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Blackburn has an avoid feel after Jekyll and Hyde season. He pitched well enough for a good portion of last season, where his arm may offer short-term help to fantasy teams as a bridge starter or possibly in double start weeks. Either way, Blackburn will have to earn his way via the free-agent pool in 2023. His low strikeout (7.2 – 6.0 with Oakland) hurts his chances of bailing out of some bad innings.
SP JP Sears
Over his first three seasons in the minors (2.76 ERA, 150 strikeouts, and four saves over 130.1 innings), Sears saw most of his action out of the bullpen. The Yankees gave him 10 starts at AAA in 2021, where he showed elite command (1.9 walks per nine) with strength in his strikeout rate (11.0). Over this span, Sears went 7-0 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 65 strikeouts over 53.1 innings. He beat these stats the following season again at AAA (1.70 ERA over 47.2 innings with seven walks and 60 strikeouts).
Between New York and Oakland in 2022, Sears made 17 appearances with a step back in results (6-3 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts over 70 innings). His walk rate (3.0) had regression, and he lost his strikeout ability (6.6 per nine). All eight of his home runs allowed were to right-handed batters.
His average fastball (93.4) was about league average. Sears offered an elite slider (.148 BAA) and plus changeup (.222 BAA). His next step is locating his four-seam fastball (.319 BAA and .484 SLG).
Fantasy Outlook: Sears threw a career-high 118 innings last season, but he pitched more than five innings in only six of his 29 games between AAA and the majors. In addition, his pitch count reached the 80 mark in only five games (max of 86 on 9/20). His ADP (508) in the high-stakes market seems out of line when considering his potential growth. Sears has a legit chance of winning a starting job with the A’s this year with the command and strikeout ability to help fantasy teams. His next step should be about 150 innings, but his wins could be an issue until he proves he can pitch deeper in games.
SP Freddy Tarnok
Tarnok battled his way over his first three seasons in the minors, leading to a 4.29 ERA and 184 strikeouts over 197.1 innings. His walk rate (4.0) held him back in 2018 and 2019. However, he improved over the last two seasons between AA and AAA (7-5 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts over 151.2 innings). The Braves gave him two-thirds of an inning of work in the majors (no runs, one hit, and one strikeout).
His fastball has high 90s upside while offering a swing-and-miss curveball. At this point in his career, his changeup has a chance to be a more attractive pitch than his slider.
Fantasy Outlook: Tarnok only has 44.0 innings of experience at AAA, so he should start the season in the minors in 2023. Oakland has questions in their starting rotation, giving him a reasonable chance to be in the majors by July.
Bullpen
RP Domingo Acevedo
Acevedo went 28-17 over eight seasons in the minors with a 2.98 ERA and 524 strikeouts while working as a starter until 2018. The A’s moved him to their closer at AAA in 2021 (2-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 53 strikeouts over 32.2 innings). He had the lowest walk rate (1.7) and highest strikeouts rate (14.6) of his career.
Oakland gave him 70 games of action in 2022, leading to a favorable ERA (3.33) and WHIP (0.990) while being challenging to hit (.206 BAA). His walk rate (7.7) failed to match his minor league resume (9.7 per nine). He issued 10 of his 17 walks to left-handed batters over 79 at-bats. Over his final 44 innings, Acevedo went 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, .198 BAA, 38 strikeouts, and four saves over 44 innings.
His average fastball (93.2) was league average. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.202 BAA) and changeup (.127 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Acevedo cannot earn a full-time closing job until he cleans up his issues with home runs (nine over 67.2 innings) and adds some ticks to his strikeout rate. His resume isn’t ideal to pitch in the 9th inning, but the A’s don’t have someone standing tall in this area in 2023. He will compete for saves this spring while expecting him to be in the free-agent pool in most formats when the lights go on for the regular season.
RP A.J. Puk
After posting a 4.03 ERA and 184 strikeouts over 124 innings at High A and AA in 2017, he blew out his left elbow in April of 2018, which led to TJ surgery.
Puk struggled over his first five games in 2019 (six runs and 15 baserunners over 8.1 innings with 13 strikeouts) at High A and AA. He had a 4.24 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 17 innings over his next 13 games before a late-August call-up to the majors. Puk finished with a 3.18 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 11.1 innings with Oakland. A left shoulder injury that required surgery cost led to him missing 2020.
After one appearance on April 5th (no runs over 3.1 innings with four strikeouts) in 2021, Puk landed on the injured list with a biceps issue. His arm offered no value at AAA (6.10 ERA over 48.2 innings). In August, with the A’s, he made some progress (4.15 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 8.2 innings), but Oakland parked him in the barn after three poor games in September (five runs, nine baserunners, and two strikeouts over 1.1 innings).
Last season, Puk made it through the year healthy, with his only missed time coming from Covid-19 in mid-April. He finished with an improvement in his walk rate (3.1) while maintaining a high-stakeout rate (10.3). His best stats came before the All-Star break (2.35 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts over 38.1 innings). Puk still has work to do vs. right-handed batters (.252 BAA with 19 walks over 159 at-bats).
His average fastball (96.9) was the best of his career. Puk offered an elite slider (.200 BAA) and a winning four-seamer (.219 BAA). He also had success with his sinker (.242 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Puk has an explosive arm, but he still has plenty of injury risk. His success last year gives him a chance to pitch in the ninth inning in 2023. In the high-stakes market, Puk has an ADP of 376, making him a flier for saves in deep formats.
RP Trevor May
From 2018 to 2021, May has been a trusted reliever (17-7 with a 3.33 ERA, 236 strikeouts, and 11 saves over 175.2 innings). His risk moving toward the ninth inning is his home runs allowed (1.4 per nine).
Last season, he missed three months with a triceps injury. May struggled over his first eight games (eight runs, 16 baserunners, and two home runs over 8.1 innings with five strikeouts and one save). His arm looked sharp over his final 16.2 innings (3.24 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, .219 BAA, and 25 strikeouts).
He had regression in his strikeout rate (10.8) while walking a few too many batters (3.2 per nine) and having the same struggles with home runs (four over 25 innings).
His average fastball (96.2) dipped slightly. Batters struggled with his slider (.164 BAA) and changeup (.174 BAA) while adding a show-me split-finger fastball (.143 BAA). May got battered with his four-seamer (321 BAA and .571 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: May shows signs of closing games but has too many disastrous innings when batting his command and home runs. His triceps injury from last season could lead to a season-ending issue. Drafters have him priced a closer in waiting in the early draft season in the NFBC based on his ADP (312). I do not trust his health, so I am putting May in my fade column.
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