After last week’s Thursday tilt, there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Seemingly, but 1-4 Washington at 2-3 Chicago isn’t exactly a premiere matchup. Still, our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6 breaks down the game with all the fantasy, DFS, and sports betting knowledge you’ll need.
This game opened at a lowly 40 points and has dropped to 38. Points will be at a premium in this one. That places extra emphasis on being able to predict this streaming spectacle accurately.
Washington has lost four straight after beating Jacksonville in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Bears have dropped consecutive games and are a mess on offense.
How will this one go?
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Washington Commanders | 19 | 10 | 28 | 24 | 26 |
| Chicago Bears | 31 | 32 | 5 | 21 | 27 |
Only five teams have scored fewer points than these two squads. The Bears have opened the season by putting the offense in ‘offensive.’ Chicago is on pace to be one of the most futile passing offenses in decades.
Washington has looked quite competent from that side of the ball in three games. However, the Commanders have also looked downright dreadful in two others. The Bears boast a top-10 defense against the pass, so that doesn’t seem to bode well for an inconsistent Commanders’ attack.
Chicago defeated Washington 31-15 back in 2019, the last time these two clubs squared off. Before that, Washington had won seven straight dating back to 2004.
Defensively, the Commanders rank 17th overall but have struggled to defend the pass. That probably won’t help Chicago’s anemic passing “attack.”
Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense ranks 22nd but is next-to-last against the run. Again, that contrasts completely with Washington’s 28th-ranked rushing offense.
We deserve a better watch after last week’s disastrous showing but will be hard-pressed to get it.
Washington Offense
From a fantasy perspective, Carson Wentz is having a fine season Wentz ranks 5th in both fantasy points and passing yards (1,390). He also has 10 touchdowns through five games. However, Wentz has piled up numbers against subpar defenses and struggled against the likes of Philadelphia and Dallas. Since Washington allows the 11th-most fantasy points to QBs, Wentz should be poised to have a solid game.
Washington’s backfield is harder to predict. First, Antonio Gibson appears to be on the outs. Gibson played a season-low 31.7% of the team’s snaps last week. Secondly, he only got three carries and three receptions. Finally, Gibson’s fantasy production has declined every week since the season opener.
Gibson appears to be behind Brian Robinson in the pecking order now. Robinson debuted last week and led the club with nine carries. However, Robinson only played 18 snaps and wasn’t targeted. That makes him hard to trust this early.
J.D. McKissic doesn’t offer up much as a ball carrier but does rank 5th among RBs with 30 targets. McKissic might be the safest choice as a low-ceiling DFS play.
Terry McLaurin is considered the team’s No. 1 wideout. However, McLaurin trails teammate Curtis Samuel in every receiving category. Chicago has done a very good job limiting wide receivers. Especially to slot receivers. Both players are decent fantasy options but expect McLaurin to outpace Samuel on Thursday.
With Jahan Dotson ruled out, Dyami Brown and Cam Sims will see increased snaps. Don’t overreact to Brown’s huge Week 5 performance. He played just 20 snaps and enters this game questionable with a groin injury.
At tight end, Logan Thomas has also been ruled out. John Bates will lead the way and has some appeal as a low-cost DFS dart thrown. Cole Turner was in on over 50% of Washington’s snaps last week and drew three targets.
Chicago Offense
Justin Fields is completing fewer than 10 passes per game. That’s not going to get in done in the NFL or fantasy lineups. Fields has failed to throw a touchdown in three of Chicago’s five contests. Even though he’s coming off of his best game of the season as a passer, Fields has yet to produce a QB1 finish in any week. Although the matchup is fine, Fields only offers fantasy appeal in DFS showdown slates.
Thankfully, the injury that kept David Montgomery sidelined in Week 4 wasn’t severe. Montgomery returned last week and posted RB16 numbers on a 72% snap rate. Washington has allowed five double-digit fantasy performances to running backs in five weeks. Montgomery looks like a good bet to be the sixth.
With a healthy Montgomery in the fold, Khalil Herbert played just 14 snaps against the Vikings. Herbert got just four carries and wasn’t targeted, either.
Targeting the league’s 32nd-ranked passing attack has been a futile effort. Darnell Mooney has topped 50 receiving yards in back-to-back games but is a risky fantasy option due to his limited targets. The rest of the Bears’ receiving corps, Eqanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, and the debuting N’Keal Harry are little more than cheap DFS gambles.
Cole Kmet has drawn just a dozen targets. All season. The good news is Kmet has multiple receptions in three straight and is coming off a season-best 4/45/0 line last week.
Prediction & Best Bet
I liked the Colt last week but the play was the under. That was an easy W, bringing the Thursday Night Football betting record to 4-1.
Mercifully, this should be the last time we have to mention last week’s debacle. This contest doesn’t look much more appealing but is bound to be better.
Chicago is a 1-point favorite, which is very good for the Bears. They’ve dropped 12 of their last 14 games as underdogs. The Bears have outright won five of their last six Thursday games but have only won four of their last 17 matchups against NFC East foes.
Conversely, Washington has won eight of their last name games in the Windy City. They’ve also gone 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 versus the Bears.
There is a strong history for both clubs on the UNDER. However, a line of just 38 points is a bit too low for my taste. It feels like Carson Wentz is easily the best signal-caller here. Oddly, Wentz is also 6-0 on Thursdays. The Commanders should be able to mount enough through the air to cover as slight favorites.
Update: I had the Bears incorrectly selected. I also had a phone conversation with our own Billy Muzio that makes me skeptical, but I’m sticking with my original play, cautiously. As in a very small play.
Best Bet: Commanders -1
