A month ago, the Denver Broncos hosting the Indianapolis Colts would have been a potential playoff preview. Now, we have a matchup between two disappointing teams that are scuffling offensively. Still, that doesn’t mean there are major fantasy ramifications to consider with our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5.
Denver’s offense did show some signs of life last week but now has to move forward without star running back Javonte Williams. How will Nathaniel Hackett adjust his already scrutinized play-calling without Williams?
The Colts will also be without their star running back, which certainly won’t help an offense that has struggled and is turning the ball over way too often.
The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites and the over/under stands at 42.5 points.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Indianapolis Colts | 19 | 10 | 27 | 24 | 32 |
| Denver Broncos | 21 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 30 |
It’s hard to believe that these are two of the three lowest-scoring teams in football. Indy’s struggles start up front, as the Colts’ offensive line ranks 27th in sack percentage. They haven’t opened up any holes for the ground game and rank 30th in fourth-down conversion.
Matt Ryan has been pressured 38 times and hurried another 18. Ryan’s 78.1% protection rate is 18th and has led to five interceptions. Facing a Denver pass rush that PFF ranks 5th is not ideal.
Playing without RB Jonathan Taylor will also hurt the Indianapolis offense. For the Colts to have a shot at reconciling their season, a wide receiver needs to step up to support Michael Pittman.
Clock mismanagement, poor play-calling, and lack of execution have hampered Denver’s offense. Particularly in the red zone. And things aren’t going to get easier without Javonte Williams.
Denver’s offensive line ranks 6th in pass protection and 11th in run blocking. They should be able to keep QB Russell Wilson clean facing an Indianapolis pass rush unit that ranks 29th per PFF.
With both offenses stagnant and the under hitting at a high rate for each team, points may be at a premium. However, there should be plenty of fantasy-relevant action at stake.
Indianapolis Offense
Indy’s underperforming O-line has been a big factor, but QB Matt Ryan simply hasn’t played well. While Ryan ranks 4th with 1,125 passing yards, he has only five touchdown passes in four games. That’s the same number of interceptions he’s thrown.
The Broncos allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. If Ryan is going to continue his club’s strong October history, he must step up and get more out of a supporting cast that has mostly struggled.
Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out with a knee injury. That makes Nyheim Hines the starter against Denver’s top-10 run defense. Hines averaged 23 fantasy points per start in the last two games that he received double-digit carries. We can’t count on that kind of performance in this matchup but Hines does offer fringe RB2 upside in PPR leagues.
Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay will spell Hines. Jackson would be the best bet to get 5-10 touches.
WR Michael Pittman isn’t being targeted enough. His 28 looks through four games are tied for 26th. He’s also scored just one touchdown. The good news is that he’s been tantalizingly close to several other scores. For the Colts to get going, Pittman needs to be more involved but that won’t be an easy task against a Denver secondary yielding the second-fewest fantasy points to wideouts.
Alec Pierce has topped 50 receiving yards in back-to-back games but is little more than an inexpensive DFS flier. Ashton Dulin has dropped off after a couple of decent games. Parris Campbell comes off of his best game of the season with a 4/43/0 outing.
To mitigate the lack of receiver production, the Colts will run a lot of ’12’ sets. This strategy has worked as tight ends have caught four of Ryan’s five TD tosses. The problem is figuring out which TE to start.
Mo Alie-Cox leads the way with 129 yards and two scores on 14 targets. Kylen Granson actually leads Indy’s tight ends in targets (15) and catches (11). Rookie Jelani Woods housed a pair of touchdowns in Week 3 but has done nothing in the other three games.
Denver Offense
Russell Wilson is off to a rocky start in the Rockies. Even when he just had his first “good” game against Las Vegas Wilson threw for only 237 yards. Every quarterback except Patrick Mahomes has thrown a pair of scores against the Colts. Wilson should be a fringe QB1 but won’t contend for top-5 numbers.
Melvin Gordon will get the starting nod in the backfield. Gordon was benched on Sunday after his fourth fumble of the season. But with Javonte Williams on IR, Hackett has no choice but to turn to the veteran. If he can hold onto the ball, Gordon has proven he can be productive in this offense as a runner and receiver.
Mike Boone got some run last week after Gordon was benched. Boone may act as the change-of-pace option here, maybe getting one-third of the carries and playing on third downs. The Broncos also signed Latavius Murray off of the Saints practice squad. It’s unknown how much of a role Murray might have with little time to practice or learn the playbook.
The Colts are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Still, Courtland Sutton is a locked-in No. 1 wide receiver. Sutton enters Thursday ranked 7th with 343 receiving yards and has scored 11-plus fantasy points in every game.
Jerry Jeudy has sandwiched a pair of decent outings with two really bad ones. With Wilson’s play leaving a lot to be desired, Jeudy isn’t the must-start WR3 we are accustomed to seeing. Instead, he is a volatile option that is probably too overpriced to be a good DFS play.
No. 3 receiver K.J. Hamler has only snagged five balls and hasn’t topped 40 yards since Week 1.
The Broncos will also rotate their tight ends but there hasn’t been much fantasy production from the unit. Albert Okwuegbunam, Eric Saubert, and Eric Tomlinson have all played 100 or more snaps but none has garnered more than 33 yards in any one game. The entire rotation is one to avoid for fantasy purposes.
Prediction & Best Bet
I mentioned that I liked the Bengals last week because it felt like we were being begged to take Miami. Rather than make that play, I attacked the UNDER 49. That brings our Thursday Night Football betting record to 3-1.
This will be the 26th meeting of the NFL’s two horse franchises. Denver holds a 14-11 record but the Colts have won seven of the last 10 matchups.
Indianapolis has outright won 10 of their last 12 Thursday Night Football games, while Denver boasts an 11-4 record against the spread on Thursdays.
The under has hit in nine consecutive Colts contests and 20 of the past 29 Broncos games. With both clubs missing starting running backs, it looks like that will be the play. I like the Colts to cover, as well.
Best Bet: UNDER 42.5
