The Thursday night tilt from last week was as uneventful as we anticipated. Fortunately, things are looking up again with our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 contest between the Bengals and AFC’s last unbeaten squad, the Miami Dolphins.
Uncertainty surrounds Miami as their star quarterback is listed as questionable after an ugly “back” injury he returned from in Week 3.
For the defending AFC champions, they’ll debut their all-white jerseys and helmets but need to figure out how to revamp an offense that enters this game last in yards per play and 20th overall.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Miami Dolphins | 13 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 20 | 14 | 20 | 32 | 10 |
The Dolphins are no strangers to establishing a potent offense. In 2021, Miami ranked 7th in offensive pace but that has surprisingly fallen off under Mike McDaniel. His club enters Week 4 ranked 28th with just 55.7 offensive plays per game.
Much of that can be attributed to a non-existent run game. Only the Chargers have rushed for fewer yards than Miami. Coincidentally, the Bengals are tied with Miami for 30th in the league in rushing yards per attempt.
Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards so far, so it might benefit Miami to try to establish that lagging rushing attack. And McDaniel just might. Especially when you consider Tua Tagoavailoa’s health on a short rest week.
Offensively, 2022 is off to a rather disappointing start for the defending AFC champs. The Bengals are having no downfield success at all and enter this game ranked 20th in overall offense.
That’s a significant drop off for a squad that finished 7th last year and returned almost completely intact. Much of the blame falls upon an offensive line that was supposedly upgraded this off-season. Per PFF, the Bengals front five ranks 25th in pass protections and 26th in run blocking.
The positive here should be scoring. Especially after last Thursday’s game. Both squads are top-10 in that category and the game over/under opened at a solid 48.5.
Miami Offense
Mike McDaniel’s undefeated Dolphins rank 8th in scoring and 16th in points allowed. A huge portion of that production came in that wild fourth quarter of Week 2 where QB Tua Tagovailoa set a franchise record tossing four touchdowns in the victory.
Tagovailoa has silenced his detractors early but his status for this game is the big question mark. Tagovailo was wobbly after taking a hit last week but returned to the field. McDaniel is being cautious and has held his signal-caller out of practice but that could prove to disrupt timing.
If the Dolphins are going to try to exploit Cincinnati’s struggles against the run, they’ll need more out of Chase Edmonds has only rushed for 79 yards through two games. Worse, he’s also only seen eight targets.
The Dolphins are pretty much splitting touches evenly between Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Cincinnati just allowed seven receptions and 60 yards to the Jets RB tandem, so there is some hope that Edmonds and/or Mostert can find some production.
Jaylen Waddle has been the league’s most productive wideouts, averaging .42 fantasy points per snap. The sophomore standout ranks second with 342 receiving yards and 4th with 24.3 PPR points per game. Waddle is being used downfield more this season.
McDaniel opined that both Waddle and Tyreek Hill would be used as the team’s No. 1 WR on a week-to-week basis. Hill has an off Week 3 but should rebound facing a Cincinnati secondary that isn’t afraid to play man-to-man coverage.
Miami’s auxiliary receivers are barely involved in the offense. Cedrick Wilson has three targets after signing a sizable free-agent deal. No. 4 WR Trent Sherfield has made four grabs for 22 yards.
TE Mike Gesicki has also fallen off the fantasy map completely. Gesicki ranks 38th with six targets and is seeing fewer snaps than Durham Smythe. Neither Miami TE should be in fantasy lineups. Their only relevance now is as cheap DFS streamers.
Cincinnati Offense
The matchup doesn’t get much better for QB Joe Burrow. Miami is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, those numbers are deceiving. The Dolphins have faced Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. They did fine in Week 1 against Mac Jones. View this as a slightly above average for Burrow.
Joe Mixon is having a little trouble getting going behind Cincinnati’s revamped O-line. He’s averaging a putrid 2.8 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone after scoring 16 times last season. Miami ranks 16th against running backs but has been vulnerable through the air.
Ja’Marr Chase‘s 35 targets are tied for the most in the league. Miami boasts solid cornerback play and did a solid job containing Stefon Diggs last week. Still, Chase is a generational talent who must be plugged into lineups.
If the Dolphins can slow down Chase, Tee Higgins should benefit. Higgins has topped 70 yards in his past two games after leaving the season opener early.
The Bengals are loaded and deep at receiver. Tyler Boyd exploded last week and is one of the best WR3s in football. We can’t expect Boyd to top 100 yards again against this secondary, but he has scored in two of Cincinnati’s first three contests.
At tight end, Hayden Hurst is a solid streaming option. Hurst caught five balls in each of the Bengals’ first two games but fell off last week. Facing a Miami defense that has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to the position, Hurst looks like a solid value.
Prediction & Best Bet
The Steelers failed to cover our 4.5-point spread last week, so we enter Week 4 2-1 with our best bets.
This contest opened at a solid 48.5 but has been bet down to 47. It also opened with the Bengals only being favored by 1.5 but the questionable status of Tua Tagovailoa caused a ton of action to come in on the cats. Cincinnati is now a solid 4-point home favorite.
Miami is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread, while Cincinnati is 1-2 in both. The UNDER has gone 5-1 in the two team’s combined six games to open 2022.
Oddly, Miami has lost seven straight games in Week 4 and is 1-11 in their last 12. Meanwhile, the under has hit in 10 of Cincinnati’s last 12. The last five times these two AFC rivals have played has gone under the total.
The hunch here is the Bengals win, but I’ll focus on those scoring trends, instead.
Best Bet: UNDER 49
