Compiling a championship fantasy football roster isn’t just about knowing what sleepers to target. Avoiding potential traps is also vital and Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0 gives FullTime Fantasy Members exclusive insight from 2021’s No. 1 draft ranker. 
Earlier this summer Billy wrote up his initial fade list for 2022. As the preseason has progressed, there are even more players that he plans to avoid at their current ADP.
Focusing on the all-important pass catchers, here is Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0.
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Like Joe Burrow, I am out on Tee Higgins at his current cost. Higgins is selected as WR #13 and pick #26 in FFWC drafts. You are buying Higgins based on his playoff performance and will be disappointed with his 2022 output. You can insert my argument for Burrow here as everything applies, but let’s dive into Tee Higgins’s independent stats and efficiencies.
Higgins finished as the WR#22 or worse in fantasy points per game in 10 of his 14 starts during the regular season. In those 14 games, he had 4 or fewer receptions in 5 games and 62 yards or less in 8-of-14. He was WR#71 in contested catch rate at 25%, WR#77 in true catch rate at 78.7%, WR#31 in target separation, WR#40 in total route wins (#52 vs. man), and WR #36 in routes ran. Don’t get me wrong, Higgins is a good receiver, but not WR#13. Pass on Higgins in the 2nd and early 3rd rounds in your drafts.
Still need to mock draft? Get your fast and FREE mock draft here.
Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins) – No denying Jaylen Waddle had a fantastic rookie year. He finished 2022 as WR#15 in fantasy points per game with 104 receptions, 1015 yards, and 6TD. Waddle shined bright as the Dolphin’s #1 WR but had little to no competition for targets. Kiss that goodbye in 2022. The dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill and gave up five draft picks: a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29), a second-round pick (No. 50), and a fourth-round pick, plus a fourth- and a sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft. They also acquired WR Cedrick Wilson in free agency, signing him to a 3-year, $22 million dollar contract.
But wait, there’s more. Miami also acquired prolific pass catcher Chase Edmonds in free agency, signing him to a 2-year $12 million dollar contract. Waddle immediately finds himself in a crowded Miami Dolphins offense where he must compete for targets in the slot, flats, and behind the line of scrimmage. I’m passing on Jaylen Waddle in drafts, especially as WR #18 in FFWC Drafts.
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – You’ve probably noticed my 2022 fantasy football rankings and thought, why does Billy have Chris Godwin as WR#48? Well, let me explain. Godwin tore his ACL in week 15 vs. the New Orleans Saints. Based on a study in the National Library of Medicine, 61.8% of players (60% at the WR Position) returned to play at a mean of 13.6 months. Godwin is drafted as WR#32 and pick#54 in FFWC drafts.
Although it appears he is ahead of that timeline, I do not expect to see Godwin running full snaps in the first six weeks of the 2022 season; there is no need to rush him back after signing Russell Gage to a 3-year $30-million dollar contract and adding Julio Jones to a one-year 6 million dollar deal. Instead, I fully expect Brady and the Buccaneers to ease Chris Godwin into the mix and utilize his talents down the stretch as they make a run for another Super Bowl.
Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs) – I just don’t get the hype. In FFWC drafts, Moore is drafted 76th overall as the WR44. Yes, you read that correctly, WR#44. Go back and watch my video analysis on Skyy Moore. I mentioned he is a bit undersized to play outside at the NFL level (5’10”, 191 lbs). Moore didn’t face the best competition at the college level, leaving questions about his NFL production. He offers little to nothing in run blocking and has average acceleration after the catch.
The Chiefs also signed slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year $3.25 million dollar contract and deep threat specialist Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a 3-year 30 million contract. At best, Skyy Moore will rotate in for designed packages or as the WR3 or WR4. This means he is the #4 or #5 option in the passing game because we can’t forget about Travis Kelce. People are chasing the 50-TD upside Mahomes had in 2018 and want a piece of that. Never chase fantasy points; you will be very disappointed.
Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers) – But, but, but, Billy? Deebo is your boy! You had him ranked ahead of Brandon Aiyuk last year. Yes, I did! But, as I just stated, we do not want to chase fantasy points. Situations change yearly, let alone week to week in the NFL. Everything changed when Trey Lance was named the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers. Lance likes to run and throw deep, which does not bode well for a WR with an 8.1 ADOT (average target distance).
Looks like Trey Lance can throw the deep ball 👀 pic.twitter.com/8yTypUAaVB
— KNBR (@KNBR) August 3, 2021
In his two starts in 2021, Lance had 24 rushing attempts for 120 yards. It is safe to assume that we will see a reduction in rushing attempts and ground game usage for Deebo in 2022 with Konami Code QB Lance at the helm, especially after Deebo expressed his displeasure about being used as a running back during contract negotiations. Any reduction in rushing is a negative for Deebo’s fantasy outlook after he rushed for 365 yards and eight scores in 2021. The rushing game accounted for 24.9% of his fantasy production. Deebo only ran 434 routes last year (WR#41) and only saw ten red-zone targets (WR#44). He was WR#43 in deep targets with 14, WR#36 in air yards with 971, and WR #24 in route participation. There are several other players in round two that I’d rather target with a solid path to production in the passing game.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) – Dawson Knox is a risky play in 2022. He finished 2021 as TE#9 in fantasy points per game after amassing 587 yards and nine scores but only caught 49 balls. That’s an unsustainable 18.4% touchdown rate. Additionally, he only saw 13.2% of the target share (TE#22), and 71 targets (TE#20).
It’s clear that Knox is not one of the first reads in this offense, and touchdowns are the most variable aspect of fantasy football. Touchdown regression is due in 2022. If we were to subtract three of his 2021 touchdowns, Knox would have finished 2021 as TE #16. Therefore, I am not banking on Knox to repeat his godly 18.4% touchdown rate in 2021 or finish top 10 again at the position.
Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) – I have nothing against Gesicki as a talent. He’s a very good tight end. He’s been underutilized and misused in his career with the Dolphins. I was very disappointed that the Dolphins placed the franchise tag on him, and he signed it in March. I was hoping he would go somewhere that he could be used properly.
Nonetheless, here we are. I am low on Gesicki for many of the same reasons I am low on Waddle. Increased competition for targets. The Dolphins still have Jaylen Waddle. They traded for Tyreek Hill and then signed Cedrick Wilson and Chase Edmonds. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, and Gesicki was already underutilized. Anywhere else, and I’d buy his ADP at cost, but not in Miami.
Follow @FFMuzio and @FullTimeFantasy for all the latest dynasty, redraft, and high-stakes best-ball fantasy football content.
Read Next: 2022 Fantasy Football Hero-RB Targets
Lastly, If you have time to prepare, make sure you mock in our Mock Draft World Championships. No better way to practice for the real thing. NEW THIS YEAR: FullTime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Mock Drafts in our contest! Head to MockDraftNow.com and enter the REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2022 Fantasy Football World Championships.