As nice as it is to have an extra night of NFL action, sometimes the Thursday Night Football games don’t live up to expectations. For Week 4, we have an interesting matchup of the two most recent No. 1 overall picks, Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals versus Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Although it’s not the most intriguing matchup on paper, there are still plenty of fantasy ramifications at stake in this game as Burrow tries to elevate the Bengals to a surprising 3-1 start and Lawrence tries for his first win.
How should fantasy football and sports betting fans approach what looks to be a potentially exciting primetime matchup?
Matchup
The Bengals are off to a solid 2-1 start, having defeated Minnesota in overtime, dropping a heartbreaker to the Bears, then easily dispatching the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week.
Meanwhile. the Jaguars are in the midst of an 18-game losing streak, having dropped their final 15 of 2020, then dropping each of their three games this season to Houston, Denver, and Arizona by 10-plus points each.
Jacksonville has been equally futile against the spread, entering Thursday 0-3 against the number. The Bengals are 2-1 ATS and are favored by more than a touchdown for the first time in a long time.
These two teams squared off here at Paul Brown Stadium exactly one year ago, with the Bengals prevailing 33-25. In Cincinnati’s victory, Burrow completed 25-of-36 passes for 300 yards, while RB Joe Mixon went off to the tune of 181 scrimmage yards and three scores.
While the Jaguars have been dispatched rather easily in each of their three games, some improvements have occurred. It won’t be easy for Lawrence to go on the road to face a vastly improved Cincinnati defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far, but this game has the potential to be an entertaining watch.
Cincinnati Offense
Burrow is off to a mixed start but the Bengals have found a way to win two of their first three contests. Through three games, Burrow is tied for fifth in the NFL with seven touchdown tosses but has only posted QB2 fantasy numbers thanks to a measly six carried for nine yards and four interceptions.
Turnovers probably won’t be a big factor in this game. Jacksonville has only mustered four sacks so far and recorded one interception in three games. Provided ample time in the pocket to pick apart a secondary that will now be without C.J. Henderson, Burrow should be viewed as a QB1 or strong QB2 in Week 4.
Mixon was the overall No. 1 fantasy running back the last time these two teams squared off, churning out 151 rushing yards and scoring 42.1 PPR points. We can’t expect that kind of production again, but Mixon enters Week 4 as the No. 14 running back and should be in line for another strong outing against a Jaguars’ defense that has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs so far in 2021.
Cincinnati’s top wideout, Tee Higgins, has already been ruled out of this game with a shoulder injury. That makes red-hot rookie J’Marr Chase the Bengals’ top option facing Shaquil Griffin and a Jacksonville secondary that is allowing 39.7 fantasy points per game to enemy receivers. Chase has scored in each of Cincinnati’s first three contests and walks into this game as the No. 11 fantasy wideout in PPR formats.
The absence of Higgins should send more targets to slot receiver Tyler Boyd, who gets an excellent matchup versus Jacksonville slot corner Chris Claybrooks. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per attempt to slot receivers, per PFF. Boyd is a solid WR3.
Auden Tate played 57.4% of Cincinnati’s snaps last week subbing for Tee Higgins but only drew one target. Tate is a decent low-cost DFS option but shouldn’t be started in redraft lineups due to his lack of volume.
Ditto for TE C.J. Uzomah, who has just five targets all season.
Jacksonville Offense
Trevor Lawrence‘s turnovers have been both surprising and a problem. The young signal-caller is tied with No. 2 pick Zach Wilson for a league-high seven interceptions so far. The rebuilding Jaguars aren’t good enough on defense to give those many opportunities away, so for Jacksonville to have any shot at pulling the upset in Cincinnati, Lawrence has to avoid turnovers. The Bengals’ defense has forced four turnovers and recorded 10 sacks so far.
RB James Robinson is coming off of his best game of the 2021 campaign, turning 21 touches into 135 scrimmage yards against Arizona. Robinson hasn’t had a ton of success running the ball, partly due to the offense’s struggles to sustain drives and negative game scripts. He’s supplemented his output so far as a pass catcher and should be productive in that department again in this game against a Cincy defense that has ceded a league-high 31 receptions to running backs so far.
Marvin Jones has been Cincinnati’s best receiver so far, snagging 17-of-28 targets for 194 yards and a pair of scores. Jones will probably be shadowed by slot cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who has been below average.
D.J. Chark should be shadowed by Eli Apple, which is normally a bid advantage due to Apple’s struggles in coverage. However, the lack of consistent targets makes Chark more of a WR4, albeit one with solid upside in this matchup.
Sophomore Laviska Shenault has one more target on the season than Chark but has yet to top 50 receiving yards or record a touchdown this season. Shenault always comes with big-play ability but, like Chark, should only be viewed as a WR4 until Jacksonville’s offense starts making strides.
The Jaguars traded C.J. Henderson for TE Dan Arnold, but Arnold is unlikely to play on a short week. Regardless, tight ends haven’t been much of a factor in Urban Meyer’s offense so far, so there’s no reason to think Arnold of James O’Shaughnessy will be fantasy-relevant in this game.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Bengals have won 5-of-7 against Jacksonville and are correctly favored to win this one rather handily. The Jaguars have also dropped 6-of-7 ATS dating back to 2020.
Cincinnati’s defense has looked vastly improved so far this season and just handled Ben Roethlisberger and an offense with far more talent quite easily.
Thursday games are always tricky to handicap, with teams having to implement abbreviated playbooks and playing on short rest. Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals have only been home favorites three times and have a 1-2 ATS record in those games.
The half-point could come into play here, as Jacksonville could muster enough offense late to pull a backdoor cover. While I would never bet on the Jaguars at this point, I don’t feel comfortable enough in the Bengals to cover by more than a touchdown.
Teases the number down to 6.5 or 7 makes sense, but for now, I’ll take a stab on the under 46.5.
UNDER 46.5
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