Thursday Night Football games can be quite polarizing. On one hand, it’s great to have another night of NFL action for football fans to absorb, but on the other hand, the matchups often leave a lot to be desired and the games, on abbreviated rest, tend to be difficult to handicap.
Week 3 is a prime example of the downside of these games as the injury-plagued Texans host a red-hot Carolina squad. The undefeated Panthers’ defense has stepped up and the Texans will be forced to trot out their backup quarterback. Can the Texans improve to 3-0 against the spread as sizable home underdogs?
Matchup
Both squads have been a surprise, with the Panthers opening up with a pair of home wins against the Jets and Saints, while the Texans blew out Jacksonville as home dogs in Week 1 and faired well in a loss at Cleveland last week.
Houston and Carolina are both 2-0 against the spread so far and both teams rank in the top-15 in passing offense. But Carolina’s defense stands out, as the Panthers enter Week 3 as the league’s No. 1 stop unit.
Through two admittedly easy games, Carolina has only allowed 369 passing yards and two touchdowns, while picking off three passes. They’ve been even better against the run, allowing a measly 57 rushing yards and no touchdowns to enemy running backs.
Down to their second-string quarterback on short rest, things aren’t looking good for Houston’s offense in Week 3.
Houston Offense
QB Tyrod Taylor has been an excellent fit in Tim Kelly’s offense, which is predicated on the Baltimore offense that head coach David Culley oversaw in Baltimore. With Taylor expected to miss at least a month, rookie third-rounder Davis Mills will make his first career start in an unenviable position.
Mills relieved Taylor last week and completed 8-of-18 passes for 102 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. While the Texans’ much-maligned offensive line isn’t among the best, Houston’s front five has yet to allow a sack and ranks 16th in PFF’s efficiency grades.
We can probably expect an abbreviated playbook for the Texans this week, who will probably try to rely more heavily on their three-headed backfield of Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Phillip Lindsay. Against the league’s top-ranked run defense, none of these players would be a recommended fantasy start, with Ingram having the best chance at punching in a score.
A dumbed-down playbook also won’t bode well for Houston’s pass catchers. Only Brandin Cooks, who enters the week as the No. 12 wideout in PPR leagues, can be viewed as a potential starter in Week 3. Even then, Cooks should be viewed as merely a WR3 in a tough matchup against a young secondary that is allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far in 2021.
Houston’s ancillary pass-catchers can be ignored. Chris Conley is playing over 68% of Houston’s snaps but has only been targeted four times. Anthony Miller should start in the slot but won’t be an option facing first-round rookie CB Jaycee Horn.
The Texans could also resort to more ’12’ sets this week but neither Pharoh Brown nor Jordan Akins are earning enough targets to be considered in any fantasy lineups in this matchup.
Carolina Offense
QB Sam Darnold has played really well so far for the Panthers. Entering Week 3, Darnold ranks 12th in fantasy scoring with four total touchdowns in two games. Darnold has completed 68.5% of his passes and ranks 11th in the NFL with 586 yards passing. Houston’s secondary is allowing over 25 fantasy points per game to enemy quarterbacks so far, so Darnold looks like a good bet for top-15 numbers.
The main cog in Carolina’s offense is RB Christian McCaffrey, the locked-in No. 1 player in Week 3. McCaffrey not only should find plenty of room to run against a Texans’ defense surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, but he’s also a good bet to catch 4-5 passes and score multiple TDs.
WR D.J. Moore‘s 19 targets are tied for 11th in football and he should have no problems getting open in coverage from Vernon Hargreaves, Tremon Smith, and Desmond King. Moore can be locked in as a dependable WR2, with WR1 upside.
Robby Anderson has only commanded nine targets so far but has an extremely high ceiling facing Houston’s vulnerable secondary. Slot receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. has caught three balls in each of Carolina’s first two contests but has only accounted for 43 receiving yards.
TE Ian Thomas has played over 62% of Carolina’s snaps but is mainly used as an in-line blocker. Dan Arnold is only playing about half as much as Thomas but has a 10.1% target share. Neither makes a great option, but Arnold’s pass-catching prowess makes him worth a look as a cheap DFS flier.
Prediction and Best Bet
Both teams are undefeated against the spread, so something has got to give in this primetime game. With the Texans reeling and resorting to starting a third-round rookie who didn’t look ready to play last week in Cleveland, it’s hard to have much interest in Houston.
Carolina’s ferocious defense is going to be a problem for Houston’s offensive line, which has performed better than expected but hasn’t been truly tested. If the Texans have trouble sustaining drives, fatigue could make things even worse for the club’s stop unit.
This game opened with the Panthers favored by a touchdown but is now up to (-8.) Dating back to last season, Carolina is 7-0 ATS in their last seven road contests.
The under is also 3-1-1 in the past five matchups between Houston and Carolina. It’s hard to see Davis Mills having much success in this situation against his offense, so both of those bets look long strong plays.
Panthers -7.5
UNDER 43.5
Scott’s DFS plays – Darnold and McCaffrey appear to be the heavy favorites for Captain spot in Showdown slates. The only possible pivots are Moore, Cooks, and Mills.
Best cheap sleepers – Terrace Marshall and Anthony Miller followed by Dan Arnold.
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