Members enjoy this outlook of 2021 Rookie Running Backs Outlook to prepare you for your upcoming rookie dynasty drafts by our NFL Scouting Analyst Riley Bymaster.
The influx of running backs from the 2020 draft class spoiled fantasy football owners throughout last season and continuing into this offseason. If an owner took a chance on one of the consensus’ top seven or eight at the position, it was nearly impossible to find a “bust.” The downside, however, is the class filled a majority of the prime landing spots, leaving few available for the incoming 2021 class. What can we expect from this group of running backs this year after the bar was set highly in 2020?
The Sure-Fire Starters
Najee Harris – Alabama / 6’1” – 225 lbs
Harris is the newest ‘Bama product at the running back position to enter the NFL after proving to be an absolute tank at the collegiate level. Coming off of back-to-back seasons where he produced at least 1,500 yards from scrimmage, Harris sits atop the 2021 class as a day-one starter for both his NFL team and all fantasy squads. With only 638 rushing attempts to his name, the tires have miles and miles of tread left despite being one of the older rookie backs in the class.
As for his play style, Harris is a well-built all-around back who shows a thrilling combination of power and elusiveness. He does a great job of following his blockers and waiting for the scheme to open a lane. He is a comfortable pass catcher out of the backfield and will be solid in pass protection. Whether he will run over defenders or make them completely whiff is his decision, which will frighten opposing defensive coordinators weeks before they face him.
- Grade: High-end starter
- NFL Draft Projection: Late 1st – Early 2nd
- Projected DFWC ADP: 1.01
- Comparison: A healthy James Conner on steroids
- Bottom Line: Harris will step in and become an immediate stud for his team and all fantasy teams, no matter the format. Don’t miss your chance on Najee Harris.
Javonte Williams – North Carolina / 5’10” 220 lbs
Williams was the surprise riser in the crop of 2021 running backs with an extraordinary campaign for the Tar Heels. He broke out during the 2021 season with his first 1,000-yard rushing season and an eye-popping 22 total touchdowns. He and fellow back Michael Carter proved to be one of the deadliest duos in the last decade. He burst onto the scene against Miami and demolished their defense and literally helped a couple Hurricane defenders onto the “Not Top Plays” segment on the following morning’s broadcast.
He is an all-around running back who shows little-to-no weaknesses in his overall game. Williams brings unreal balance and will stay on his feet no matter what sized dump truck hits him at full speed. He has both the quickness and speed to make defenders miss in the open field. As a comfortable pass catcher out of the backfield, his offensive coordinator in the NFL will not wait to design plays in order to get the ball in his hands. Williams is the best pass protector in the entire rookie running back class, so expect him on the field in any third down situation.
- Grade: High-end starter
- Draft Projection: Early 2nd
- Projected DFWC ADP: 1.07
- Comparison: A well-behaved, Kansas City Chief Kareem Hunt
- Bottom Line: Williams will produce immediately and become a RB1 week-in and week-out. Don’t be afraid to take him over fellow rookie Travis Etienne – Williams is better.
Travis Etienne – Clemson / 5’10” – 210 lbs
Etienne leaves the Tigers with one of the most impressive resumes to date. He averaged more than 1,700 yards from scrimmage throughout his final three years in the NCAA. Though many believed he was going to be a part of the 2020 class, Etienne shocked the world and chose to return for his senior season in 2021. In doing so, he showed definite improvement as a pass catcher, which was the biggest question mark about his projection to the NFL.
Etienne is an explosive one-cut runner who will accelerate quicker than anyone else on the field. He bounces off tacklers and runs through contact at a high level. He vastly improved as a receiver, so expect a fair share of targets as a rookie. He may run into some trouble with his flexibility as he struggles to avoid contact far too often. He lacks shiftiness and is more straight-line than many want to believe. Etienne is wildly inconsistent in pass protection, which could limit his snaps on third down throughout his first couple years in the league.
- Grade: Starter with limitations
- NFL Draft Projection: 2nd
- Projected DFWC ADP: 1.03
- Comparison: Kenyan Drake (floor) – Aaron Jones (ceiling)
- Bottom Line: Etienne will have an explosive, yet short-lived window of production in the NFL. Ignore the Kamara comparisons and be ready to sell after an early peak.
Kenneth Gainwell – Memphis / 5’10” – 201 lbs
Gainwell leaves Memphis after just two seasons: one of which he accumulated 143 scrimmage yards through four games and the other where he totaled 2,069 scrimmage yards to go along with 16 total touchdowns. After opting out of the 2020 season, evaluators have his one lone season off of which to base their reports. Though his production was short-lived, Gainwell seems to be the next exciting playmaker out of Memphis who has a chance to make a splash in the NFL.
He is another split-position player who spends half of his time at running back and the other half lined up as a wide receiver. He is a natural, crisp route runner who shows the ability to break and stop quickly. He adjusts well to back-shoulder throws and flashes the ability to start as slot at the next level. As a runner, he loves to chip pass rushers at the line of scrimmage, flashing raw power in his pads. He follows his blocks well and can get skinny through a crowded line of scrimmage. He’s an elusive player but can lose momentum when making big-time cuts and jukes. Another guy who is quicker than fast, but the new Kenny G has playmaker potential written all over.
- Grade: Role player with starter potential
- Draft Projection: Late 3rd – Early 4th
- Projected DFWC ADP: 2.03
- Comparison: Leon Washington (floor), James White, Austin Ekeler (absolute ceiling)
- Bottom Line: Gainwell’s fantasy value will depend on his landing spot. Should he land with an offensive-minded head coach, watch out for a quick boom. A fun and potentially value pick in second round rookie drafts.
Jermar Jefferson – Oregon State / 5’10” – 210 lbs
Jefferson burst onto the scene in 2018, totaling over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns as a freshman. Though his yardage production dropped in 2019, Jefferson finished with another 10 touchdowns as a sophomore and looked to continue that trend heading into 2020 before he opted out halfway through the COVID-filled season.
Jefferson is one of the quickest movers in the entire class. He is uber shifty and loses zero momentum when flashing his natural elusiveness. Jefferson changes direction in an instant and is able to avoid contact as well as any runner in the class. He shows good vision and knows when to hit his running lanes. Don’t expect a ton of long speed, but the reality is 4.30 speed is not needed to succeed in today’s NFL. We would like to see him shake a few more tackles as his power is slightly lacking.
- Grade: Developmental with low-end starter potential
- Draft Projection: 4th
- Projected DFWC ADP: 2.04
- Comparison: Justice Hill (floor), Lamar Miller (ceiling)
- Bottom Line: Jefferson is a super fun runner with potential to explode if given an early chance to carry the rock. One of the few mid-late round running backs with potential.
Michael Carter – North Carolina / 5’7” – 202
Carter is the shorter half of the Tar Heel backfield but has produced significantly in all four collegiate seasons. He saw growth (in production, not his height) each year, totaling 659 scrimmage yards in 2017, 732 in 2018, nearly 1,200 in 2019, and finishing with over 1,500 in 2020. Being able to average a thousand scrimmage yards over four years is impressive and speaks to his reliability out of the backfield.
Though he is undersized, Carter runs with great quickness and underrated toughness. His quick burst and agility allow him to pick up yards in chunks. He is an above average pass catcher who runs extremely crisp routes out of the backfield. Carter can struggle to run through arm tackles at times, but improves throughout the game as he finds his groove. He is a tad inconsistent in pass protection, often getting bull-rushed one play and showing excellent awareness and technique the next.
- Grade: Low-end starter with limitations
- Draft Projection: 4th
- Projected DFWC ADP: 1.12
- Comparison: Nyheim Hines, Dion Lewis
- Bottom Line: Carter is likely headed for a committee but has the skill and upside to lead a backfield should the lead back fall to injury or suspension.
Trey Sermon – Ohio State / 6’0” – 212 lbs (Est.)
Sermon has the most interesting background of any 2021 running back, having once been an Oklahoma Sooner standout who finished his career in the Buckeye backfield. As a freshman, Sermon ran for over 700 yards and 5 touchdowns behind Baker Mayfield and company. He improved on his early breakout by finished his 2018 sophomore season with 1,100 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns. After an injury-plagued 2019 junior season, he transferred to Ohio State and became a weapon behind Justin Fields (not a bad QB resume, huh?) With nearly a thousand yards in 2020, Sermon leaves college as an experienced, productive player with even more room to grow.
It is only fitting Trey Sermon be an interesting film evaluation to go along with his statistical track record. Sermon is a quick accelerator with good athleticism and shows a nice mix of cuts, well-timed hurdles, and bend. As he progressed throughout his collegiate career, he became lighter on his feet due to improved vision and higher football intelligence. Sermon can run through arm tackles like nobody’s business and power through scrums for extra yardage. His receiving usage was limited throughout his four years, but it doesn’t mean he can’t catch – we just need to see more reps. Sermon’s downside is his brain and feet need to work together a bit more smoothly. He often overruns himself and struggles to remain in control of his lower half.
- Grade: Low-end starter with limitations
- Draft Projection: 4th – 5th
- Projected DFWC ADP: 2.07
- Comparison: Tony Pollard, the runner
- Bottom Line: Sermon has the ability to lead a committee as the early down back, so it somewhat caps his upside. Keep an eye on his landing spot as he could take a year or two to return value on the investment.
