The Power Fade – PGA DFS
By: Mark Farris
Tournament: The Northern Trust
Course: TPC Boston (Par 71 – 7,300 Yards)
Location: Norton, MA
Corollary Courses: Rotating Courses, but Liberty National from last year is similar
Last week, I did get Brooks Koepka right. He is a risk-reward player. If the reward isn’t big enough for winning the tournament, his risk (or effort) seems to dissipate. Now, I’m not saying Brooks doesn’t care, he surely does. However, I’m not blaming this poor performance on the knee like prior to the PGA Championship. Unless he had a setback, which I saw no report of that, I’m not buying it as an excuse. Much like Daniel in the Karate Kid, Brooks is “Focus ON-Focus OFF” (Wax On-Wax Off for those of you too young to remember the Karate Kid).
On the other side, my new nemesis, Justin Rose. Justin – Quit reading my articles to see if I’m on or off of you for the tournament and basing your play on that. I joke, but damn I can’t seem to get him right. Public Service Announcement – I probably won’t play him this week so you may want to take that into consideration with lineup construction.
Again, I’m limiting my picks in each Tier that I will define as:
- Budget Breakers $9,000 and above on DK
- The Sweet Spot $7,500 to $8,900
- The Grinders $7,000 to $7,400
- The Hidden Treasures Below $7,000
Typically, the guys in The Sweet Spot and The Grinders will make up a huge chunk of your lineups. More than 2 “Budget Breakers” are damn near impossible to get in your lineup and still feel good about it……even with The Hidden Treasures
Last week, I introduced the “Snap Hooks” to go along with each grouping. I think that helps everyone…..including me because there are guys I like that may just miss my Top Plays.
Course Summary
We have a Par 71 that plays approximately 7,300 Yards. The fairways are relatively large as compared to Tour average. They are tree-lined and the rough can get high so driving accuracy may play an important role.
The greens are bentgrass and usually run pretty fast on the stimp meter. Long iron approaches are historically important here (and damn it, Justin Rose is a good long iron player historically). This course can play very tough. This will not – or should not – be a birdie shootout like we’ve seen the last few weeks.
For future reference – and I will remind you each week in case you are a new subscriber – I am a DFS player that relies on:
- current form,
- course history
- “gut”
Golf is so variant and statistics do matter, but I’ve always found that the way a guy has been playing can flip a statistic on its head. I also know from my own play that, as long as my head is in a good spot, I play better.
Budget Breakers
For the record, these ARE NOT guys that you should avoid. It’s simply an acknowledgement of DFS strategy and pricing.
Dustin Johnson ($10,400 DK; $11,600 FD)
While he tends to have the Koepka-tude at certain times, he usually plays well here. In the history of events here, he has four Top 10s and hasn’t missed a cut in quite a few years. Plus, his last two events have produced a T2 and T12. Plus, Koepka’s comment of “I think Dustin’s only won one” when referring to Majors, has to add some fuel to the fire.
Justin Thomas ($11,300 DK; $11,900 FD)
He won here in 2017. He has a win and a 2nd in his last 4 events. He wants to repeat as a FedEx Cup winner. His PGA Championship performance wasn’t what he wanted but it wasn’t horrible either. When he struggles, he works. He took last week off so I’m expecting good things.
Xander Schauffele ($9,700 DK; $11,500 FD)
Xander is one of my favorite players for consistency, poise, and will to win. I think he performs well here even if he doesn’t win. His price is an advantage over JT (and Bryson – see below). If you can start a lineup with DJ and Xander, I think you have a good beginning.
Snap Hooks: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100 DK; $12,000 FD)
He’s pretty high-priced this week, but I expect a good performance. I think the price will keep ownership down a little, so, don’t be afraid to give it a shot.
Jon Rahm ($10,000 DK; $11,700 FD)
Patrick Reed ($9,000 DK; $11,100 FD) – He’s cheap relative to performance potential
This week more than others, the guys in this range are all respectable lineup choices. Pricing will make it difficult to go hog wild here. My “avoids” would be: Rory McIlroy (not liking his form at that price); Patrick Cantlay (making cuts but not producing value in my opinion); and Brooks Koepka (for the reasons I state above).
The Sweet Spot
This section, combined with The Grinders, will be where you get a lot of your roster slots unless you really going for a lineup that has more risk than you probably want (Milli-maker baby!).
Daniel Berger ($8,900 DK; $10,800 FD)
I think this is a SUPER price for him on DK. He has been playing so well lately and he’s a name that can fly under the radar of the casual player. I look for a solid Top 15 this week again. (DAMN – I just used the same logic here that I did for Brendan Todd last week!). Regardless, Berger is one of my favorites. He had a rough patch for a couple years and I think he’s found it again.
Billy Horschel ($7,900 DK; $9,800 FD)
Billy Ho has won a FedEx Cup. Billy Ho was striking it well last week (even though he had a little struggle on Sunday). At this price, Billy Ho is in play in Boston.
Snap Hooks: Viktor Hovland ($8,200 DK; $10,600 FD)
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000 DK; $9,800 FD)
Adam Scott ($8,400 DK; $10,300 FD) – Best value is on DK!
Harris English ($7,600 DK; $9,300 FD) – Value on Both!
The Grinders
These are guys that are good salary-fits if you need them, are underpriced in my opinion, or just good players that can Top 25 in any given week.
Russell Henley ($7,300 DK; $8,900 FD) – Love this price for his current play!
Ian Poulter ($7,200 DK; $8,700 FD) – The Honey Badger at this price! Yes please!
Dylan Fritelli ($7,000 DK; $8,500 FD) – 3 Top 25s in 4 weeks! Mr. Nicklaus, thank you!
Snap Hooks: Harold Varner III ($7,400 DK; $8,900 FD) – Like DK pricing better!
Alexander Noren ($7,100 DK; $8,700 FD) – Top 25 in last 3!
I think this area is viable, but it’s all going to depend on cut making. I think these 5 guys are pretty solid chances for making the cut. Mickelson, Hadwin and Bubba Watson are all in this range too. While extremely viable and “valuelicious”, they are also more volatile right now. If I had to rank those three in order of choice, it would be Hadwin, Bubba, & Phil.
The Hidden Treasures
I know I’ve said this before, but ALL of these guys are good or they wouldn’t be here. So, we need to take a closer look and see if we can find one or two that will allows to expand our use of Budget Breakers if you feel so inclined.
Zach Johnson ($6,800 DK; $8,300 FD) – Until I saw him play on the weekend, I wouldn’t have even thought of him. However, while this course plays longer, ZJ is a solid tee-to-green player and I would bet more on him to avoid the rough trouble than any of the three guys I mentioned in the last paragraph of “The Grinders” section.
Henrik Norlander ($6,600 DK; $8,000 FD) – I don’t know a guy who is more “under the radar”, low-priced, and playing more consistently than Henrik. He even has the potential to pop for a Top 25 in my opinion. Won’t take much to get to value.
Snap Hooks: Mark Hubbard ($6,600 DK; $7,900 FD)
Talor Gooch ($6,500 DK; $7,800 FD
POWER FADE(s):
DRAFTKINGS: Rory McIlroy ($10,800 DK; $11,800 FD)
This is a pure pricing play and one of the best – or worst – calls I can make. He hasn’t been Top 30 since the Travelers. At this price, I just can’t for DFS. If I was asked to put money on Rory definitely NOT WINNING, no way in Hell!! He can definitely do it!
FANDUEL: Rory McIlroy – Back to same pick mentality as last week. I just can’t at that price.
PICK TO WIN: Dustin Johnson
LONGSHOT TO WIN: Adam Scott
Slack Chat is an important tool offered here. I’m on it regularly. It is IMPOSSIBLE to touch on every potential lineup option in an article. If you have questions, ask! If you have an idea, lay it out! If I can’t come up with a rationale to talk you out of it, use it! Your GUT can be a key in PGS-DFS.
REMEMBER, it’s called GOLF because all of the other 4-letter words were taken!