SLATE INTRO
So much for me starting things off with “hey, we have 15 games and no 7 inning games and everything seems fine”. Royals and Reds game is PPD to tomorrow out of caution and that removes a good pitching option (Castillo) for us today.
Both sites lock at 7:05 PM with 10 games on them as four games are being played in the afternoon.
Interesting note, even with 10 games tonight the LAST game of the slate begins at 8:15 PM EST
WEATHER
All clear
- Mariners @ Dodgers – 4:05 PM local time in L.A. and it’s HOT as balls again. I dont think any shadows are going to come into play either this time of year.
Happy Asian pitcher day with Tanaka, Maeda, Darvish all on the mound. We also have the debut of Tarik Skubal for the Tigers (more on him below).
Kenta Maeda
Only reason for concern against a bad Brewers lineup is that he just saw them a week ago. Kenta is far better than Ross “I am soon to be pitching for some dumpster team like the Giants” Stripling so do not over panic when you hear “Hey, he’s facing a bad team” as analysis.
Dylan Cease
This will be a low scoring game today, don’t take too many bats from this game and by too many I mean nobody besides Goodrum and Eloy. Cease is the better pitcher to use in DFS in this game and should have a ton of strikeouts today.
Masahiro Tanaka
Sometimes the DK algo is locked in but other times I can see right through where it makes a mistake. Tampa’s recent performances have them popping off offensively after they had road trips in Atlanta, Boston and Buffalo. Going into Yankee Stadium has been a curse for the Rays in recent seasons and one of the arms who has dominated them is Tanaka. He’s underpriced on both sites due to not going deep into a game yet this season but he’s getting a nice comfortable evening in New York to face the swing and miss happy Rays — a team who he has feasted on in the past. Of all these Asian pitchers who appear prime today, he’s the one who I trust the most.
Cookies Carrasco
Over his long and windy career, Carlos Carrasco has appeared in 39 Home games and 48 Away games. He has as lifetime 4.33 ERA at home compared to just a 3.31 away from the Jake. Going into Pittsburgh, which is also a good lefties park is still a good park shift for Cookie and he draws the Pirates coming off an extended weekend vacation. Lots of lefties for the Pirates as usual today and it is a good lefties park which is why I have him fourth.
Outside of the Box
Blake Snell
Snellzilla has been slowly creeping up his usage this season as he shakes off the video game rust from wanting to sit out the entire 2020 season. New York has been striking out more of late which is entirely the upside benefit that Snell can bring. I wouldn’t expect more than 6 IP and that kind of lower ceiling is why he is down here, but I expect Snell to pitch extremely well in an environment that hasn’t been kind to him and the Rays.
Summary: So I just broke my rule and went with 5 pitchers listed instead of my regular 4. I think Snell is your get risky play at pitcher today in a game where nobody still trusts him until they actually see it — but the reality is that you have already seen it and you just don’t know it. To play it safe though Maeda/Cease is your likely spot to look at, but I will tell you right now that all 5 guys I wrote up I expect to pitch well and if any of them suck I will gladly take the loss here. Play any of em.
Guys not on my list
- Tarik Skubal … Think Robbie Ray – who ironically was formerly a Tiger and was the third piece on the Didi Gregorius trade years ago. Skubal is a hard throwing lefty, heavy fastball with good velocity but he has command issues which brings on the Robbie Ray comparison. I rarely make exceptions on the don’t use pitchers making their debut strategy and I won’t be using him either.
- Yu Darvish … Deep pitching slate, I’ll pass paying extra for Darvish.
Pitching is much better today so I find myself gravitating towards ensuring I have the good arms in the lineup + going with the most priced appropriate 2 to 3 bats per team.
My favorite bold plays in the positional breakdown below highlight guys who I view are great one offs to use in a 3-3-1-1 type build today.
Philadelphia Phillies
Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, Alec Bohm
Happy Rhys Hoskins raises his batting average over .230 week. Rhys and the Phils will go up to Boston and then later this week go down to Atlanta. They’ve been ice cold offensively to start the season when you remove Harper and Realmuto from the lineup. Nothing better to get Hoskins, McCutchen, Segura and Didi Gregorius going than a trip to Boston to face the trash can that is Zach Godley. If they can bump him out then Alec Bohm will get his first career homer in Fenway Park.
As much as I hate Zach Godley on the level of Tanner Roark, he is kinda the same guy. He’s not great at getting out pitches but he finds a way to labor through his starts lots of times. The Phillies have plenty of guys who should like the ball down in the zone but I cannot be certain they have their heads on straight. I love Rhys as my bold call to have his one good week this week and then go back to stinking, but beyond that I am not looking to roll out 4 or 5 Phils. Just in the 2-3 range.
Atlanta Braves
Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Dansby Swanson
The mistake in this game is to see Josh Tomlin, his HR/9, HR/Fly Ball metrics and see the Nationals on the other side and get all excited. I see this game going opposite of last night where the Braves are the team that jumps out to the early lead only to see the bullpen blow it on the back-end. That’s my way of encouraging you to play Nationals too.
Teams to keep on your radar
- Dodgers – The Mariners cannot pitch and the Dodgers should be our top focus today, but I’m not gonna waste space writing about the obvious fact that in a 90+ degree home mid day game they should hit about 30 home runs. Bellinger and Taylor (value) stand out + the white hot Mookie obviously. If you are looking at this game being fireworks then you should take the value plays of Pollock and Taylor and roll with Bellinger who can pad his stats against the crappy Mariners today to make himself feel better.
- Toronto – Love someone special below, but it’s the usual suspects here… Teoscar, Vladdy, Biggio and Mr. Gurriel.
CATCHER
- JT Realmuto
- Travis d’Arnaud – DK Value
- Chance Sisco
FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins: Nobody likes him. Absolutely nobody. But he’s got his one shot here. Unfortunately it’s a deep position today, so double down here on FD.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Mitch Moreland
- Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura
- Luis Arraez
- Luis Garcia — Still nearly free on DK
THIRD BASE
- Justin Turner
- Jose Ramirez
- Alec Bohm
SHORTSTOP
I expect Tim Anderson who hits LHP well to be popular as he’s on a roll since coming off the IL, but at best I think you’ll get a couple walks out of him today.
- Didi Gregorious
- Niko Goodrum
- Chris Taylor
- Dansby Swanson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr … Much better against LHP and has been in a little cold funk but LeBlanc gets him out of that today.
- Andrew McCutchen
- Marcell Ozuna
- Eddie Rosario – Far better value than Mookie Betts, who is a no duh play in general.
Outfield – Tier 2
- Alex Verdugo
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Bryce Harper
Outfield – Value
- AJ Pollock
- Brandon Nimmo
- Lewis Brinson
BEST CONTEST REFRESHER
These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds:
- 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it’s the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what’s the point? These type of contests usually aren’t as common and they’re a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They’re smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these.
- Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better.
- Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren’t about making money. Sorry.
- Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you’re in a slump, play one of these.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr – OF – Blue Jays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Twins
- Travis d’Arnaud – C – Braves
- Jean Segura – 2B – Phillies
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Indians – LiPNC
- AJ Pollock – OF – Dodgers
- Chris Taylor – SS – Dodgers
- BONUS …………………………. Freddie Freeman – 1B Atlanta Braves