ADP Analysis: QB1 | QB2 | Starting RBs | Backup RBs | Starting WRs | Backup WRs | TEs
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In this group of running backs, there is a mixed bag of passing-catching options and grinders with some touchdown value. Most fantasy owners will select their RB3 between the sixth and eighth rounds. It is almost impossible to win fantasy football without depth at the running back position. In many seasons, a running back will emerge as an impact back in this area of the draft. The decision making comes down to a balance between a higher floor with a pass-catching back or a running back option that may land a full-time job after an injury.
Here’s a look at the RB3 options:
In the RB3 group of running backs, a fantasy owner is trying to find a player who can score enough fantasy points to cover an injury or bye week and still have an underlying upside. A runner with early-down value will need to score a touchdown to produce double-digit fantasy points in most weeks. A pass-catching back can have a lot fewer touches but finish with more consistency in fantasy points in PPR leagues.
Here’s an example of three type backs in this area:
Early down back with minimal pass-catching value: If a running back gets between ten and 15 rushes per game, he’ll finish with between 40 yards and 75 yards on the average. As mention early with no TD, this type of player will score below ten fantasy points in most weeks.
Passing catching back with minimal value on early downs: The top fantasy owners in the high-stakes market tend to gravitate toward pass-catching backs when developing their secondary core at running back. A running back that catches about four passes per game will gain between 7.5 and 10.0 yards per catch leading to seven to eight fantasy points in PPR leagues. If they get four to six rushes as well on early downs, this type of running back can reach double-digit fantasy points in many weeks without scoring or hitting on a long play. If they do score, it tends to push them toward back-end RB1 status for that week.
Backup RB with starter upside: This type of running back is the most frustrating player to own if forced to start due to an injury or bye week. With minimal touches, backup running backs will score almost no fantasy points until they gain starting status. Ideally, a fantasy owner would like to take these types of shots at RB5 and RB6, with some coming as handcuffs.
Top Pass-Catching RB3s
In 2018, both James White and Tarik Cohen finished as top 12 running backs in PPR leagues while failing to make an impact in the championship rounds in the high-stakes market.
Last year Cohen finished with 143 touches, a drop-off of 26 chances from 2018 with David Montgomery added to the mix in the Bears’ backfield. His price point will be lower this year due to his regression in his yards per rush (3.3) and yards per catch (5.8). Chicago should be better offensively this year, but Montgomery could be much better as well.
The Patriots added a dynamic runner (Damien Harris) in the third round of the 2019 draft, but he was nonfactor last year. White played well as a steady rotational back (18th in PPR scoring), and his role/opportunity shouldn’t change much this year.
New England will feature Sony Michel or Harris on early downs, especially when playing from the lead. White will be on the field on most passing downs, two-minute situations, and in chaser games.
Kareem Hunt is a third running back with passing catching upside, but his ceiling is much higher than both Cohen and White. He’ll have scoring chances in close, plus Hunt would become a top ten running back if Nick Chubb went down with an injury. I view him as targeted RB3 for me in PPR leagues while being priced (ADP – 55) fairly in drafts.
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Breakout Running Back
D’Andre Swift fits the breakout mode for me in the RB3 grouping. I was not a fan of him coming into the NFL draft as I felt he would land on a team with a power early-down runner. His new home in Detroit should offer plenty of chances in the run game, and I expect him to be the best goal line and the top pass-catching option for the Lions. His ADP (52) should rise as the calendar moves to September.
Upside Running Back Options
Cam Akers has a big back feel while owning pass-catching upside. The Rams will split the touches between him and Darell Henderson. I respect Henderson’s talent more than most, which means Akers seems overpriced slightly for me. The Rams shied away from their running backs in the passing game last year with Todd Gurley almost working as a decoy in the passing game on many downs.
The 49ers will run the ball a ton, and Raheem Mostert earned the right to get the most touches at running back. He brings speed and possibly more upside in the passing game. The question here is what took him so long to emerge. I respect his success, but I’d rather buy him a discount.
J.K. Dobbins was my top rookie running back this year. He landed in a great spot, but Dobbins looks to be a year away from earning a winning role in the Ravens’ offense unless Mark Ingram goes down with an injury. At the very least, Dobbins should have a floor of Gus Edwards (756 combined yards with two TDs and seven catches) in 2019.
Here’s a look at the running back options at RB4:
To see why I like or don’t like the back-end of the running back inventory in 2020, head over to FulltimeFantasy.com to see all the Team Outlooks.
Alexander Mattison is the home run swing in this group. If Dalvin Cook went down with an injury, there is doubt that he would have a top 12 opportunity. Cook is in a contract year, and he wants to get paid. With any more threat of a holdout, Mattison will move up in the draft rankings.
Both Tony Pollard and Darrell Henderson were attractive back-end running backs in 2019. Pollard needs Ezekiel Elliott to have an injury to earn playable value, which seems unlikely. Henderson is in a much better situation where he should be in a split role out of the gate. His explosiveness gives him a chance to outperform his draft slot while almost being dismissed as a threat to Cam Akers in fantasy drafts.
The back-end of the running inventory looks weak or unidentifiable, pushing many fantasy owners to take their 5th running back dance after the 12th round.
When reviewing the running back ADPs, a fantasy owner can see the potential backs of interest. Each draft will have a wide range of results, so a targeted back-end running back may not fall as expected. Decision making in drafts comes down to tradeoffs at each position.
If I take player A at running back, will the wide receiver I want slide to me in the next round?
Should I move up a wide receiver knowing the running back I like isn’t drawing a ton of interest in other drafts?
If I jump a running back and move him up a round in the draft, what are the comparable options at wide receiver if I miss the wide receiver I targeted before the draft?
These are the thoughts that should occur before the draft to speed up your decision-making when on the clock.
Drafting a winning fantasy team is full of decision making and some weak moments when waiting for a player of interest to slide to your draft pick. Building a foundation of running backs takes some foresight while also giving up some passion for possible edges at quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end. Your success will come down to your draft plan, style of play, and some timely luck.
