The Power Fade – PGA DFS
By: Mark Farris
Tournament: PGA Championship
Course: TPC Harding Park (Par 70 – 7,234 Yards)
Location: San Francisco, CA
Corollary Courses: Torrey Pines & Muirfield Village (not The Memorial set-up)
After taking a week off due to a “No-Cut” event, I honestly was frustrated. I felt like I was not only providing “information overload” to all of you, I was screwing up my own mind with my picks. So, after some back-and-forth with my friend, Steve Renner at FullTime Fantasy (BTW – Renner’s “Dongers Club” article is the shit!), I’m going to make some revisions to my format. I’m limiting my picks in each Tier that I will define as:
- Budget Breakers $9,000 and above on DK
- The Sweet Spot $7,500 to $8,900
- The Grinders $7,000 to $7,400
- The Hidden Treasures Below $7,000
Typically, the guys in The Sweet Spot and The Grinders will make up a huge chunk of your lineups. More than 2 “Budget Breakers” are damn near impossible to get in your lineup and still feel good about it……even with The Hidden Treasures. Essentially, that would be the Stars-and-Scrubs or Studs-and-Duds lineups you hear about. But, in golf, calling any of these guys a “Scrub” or a “Dud” is really a disservice. If you are one of the Top 144 golfers in the World, I have a hard time calling you that.
I’m also introducing the “Snap Hooks” to go along with each grouping. This would be my “one offs” or “hedge” plays. Get it? “Power Fade” – “Snap Hook”? No? Well, you’re getting it anyway.
Course Summary
This course is listed at just over 7,200 yards, but the tees are such that it can be extended to 7,400 yards. If the scoring is low, don’t be surprised if they “unleash the beast” over the weekend. The course does not have any water that would be considered “in play”. The rough will be thick so that’s most likely where guys will lose strokes. Because we are at the coast, winds and fog (it’s a “Cali Thing”) can come into play as well. This is not ocean side, but the effects can still be felt.
The winds will be most prevalent once the players reach Lake Merced around the 14th hole. No, the Lake is not in play, but the course becomes more exposed at this point. The Par 3s are the most difficult holes with the 250 +/- yard 17th.
How do we know the rough is thick? Twitter-chatter! Of course we won’t know the actual set up or how they will “manicure” the rough prior to Thursday, but I think it’s safe to assume that, since it’s a Major, they won’t take it easy on the guys.
Fairways are tree-lined, but not in the sense that we are playing in a tunnel. The trees appear to be strategically placed. Greens were renovated in 2015 and changed from poa to bentgrass. Fast & hard/firm greens should be anticipated as well. They are average size so distance control and spin will be important.
For future reference – and I will remind you each week in case you are a new subscriber – I am a DFS player that relies on:
- current form,
- course history
- “gut”
Golf is so variant and statistics do matter, but I’ve always found that the way a guy has been playing can flip a statistic on its head. I also know from my own play that, as long as my head is in a good spot, I play better.
Budget Breakers
For the record, these ARE NOT guys that you should avoid. It’s simply an acknowledgement of DFS strategy and pricing. If you could pick Rahm, DeChambeau, Thomas, Koepka, Schauffele and McIlroy every week (and yes, they are the 6 highest priced guys this week), you would!…..and so would everybody else.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,300 DK; $11,800 FD)
This guy can be controversial as Hell! However, he is also one of the most exciting guys on the PGA Tour to watch right now. Yes, he missed the cut at The Memorial, but in those conditions, I think many of us would have just walked away. Prior to that MC, he was 1st-6th-8th-3rd. Pre-COVID, his three most recent were 4th-2nd-T5. He is going to win a Major!! And I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the one.
Brooks Koepka ($11,100 DK; $11,400 FD)
As he is the 2nd highest priced guy on DK and the 5th highest on FD, I think he may be more of a bargain (if anyone in this range is a “bargain”) on FD. I’ve been doubting Brooks for weeks now. For the last three weeks (before the WGC), I’ve been spot on. But now, two things have changed. (1) There was really no mention of his health (knee) last week and (2) this is a Major and as Renner may put it, he’s “double-donged” in this event. He is the “big game hunter” going for the 3-peat!
Xander Schauffele ($10,000 DK; $11,100 FD)
I was really going to list him as a “Snap Hook”, but I can’t. He’s the type of “machine” that can and will win a Major. And, in the last 4 weeks he’s played, his worst finish is T20. He is a ball-striker with more-than-adequate distance to manage longer drives when he needs to. In fact, I may actually prefer him in this group over Bryson & Brooks (a.k.a. “Hanz & Franz”). Get it? C’mon! Google Saturday Night Live. We at FullTime Fantasy are here to “pump you up!”…….you’re bankroll that is!
Snap Hooks: Webb Simpson ($9,700 DK; $10,900 FD)
Justin Thomas ($11,300 DK; $11,600 FD)
The Sweet Spot
This section, combined with The Grinders, will be where you get a lot of your roster slots unless you really going for a lineup that has more risk than you probably want (Milli-maker baby!).
Collin Morikawa ($8,600 DK; $10,700 FD)
If you’ve read my previous articles, you know that I have respectfully named him “Baby Yoda”. Why you ask? He seems to have “the force”. The old saying is that “certain courses are made to fit certain golfers”…….or some shit like that! Here, “a certain golfer is made to adapt to all courses”. I give you – Collin Morikawa. I would put more money on him being a sure bet to make the cut than I would Tiger Woods at this point in their careers.
Daniel Berger ($8,800 DK; $9,700 FD)
Back to the old “he missed the cut at The Memorial” argument. I don’t care! Tight courses were his downfall in the past, but as was noted above, this course isn’t particularly tight. He needs to stay out of the rough, but other than the MC, his current form is T2-MC-T3-Win-T4-T5. The last two were Pre-COVID so it doesn’t appear the layoff hurt.
Snap Hooks: Viktor Hovland ($8,500 DK; $9,800 FD)
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700 DK; $10,300 FD) – I think he may be back!
Jason Day ($8,400 DK; $9,900 FD) – risk is the back in cooler temps!
Public Service Announcement: Justin Rose ($7,800 DK; $10,400 FD) and Adam Scott ($7,800 DK; $10,000 FD) are baaaaack! I have the WORST time predicting what these two will do, but if I had to this week, they both may be price-worthy on DK, but I think I will steer clear on FD.
The Grinders
These are guys that are good salary-fits if you need them, are underpriced in my opinion, or just good players that can Top 25 in any given week.
Chez Reavie ($7,400 DK; $8,500 FD) – Playing solid golf!
Brendan Todd ($7,400 DK; $8,600 FD) – Solid but his last 4 Sunday-finishes have been bad!
Harris English ($7,200 DK; $9,300 FD)
Snap Hooks: Ian Poulter ($7,100 DK; $8,900 FD)
Tom Lewis ($7,100 DK; $7,600 FD)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,000 DK; $8,100 FD)
I never thought I would utter these words in a DFS article, but I think I may limit Ian Poulter to one lineup this week if I play him at all. Also, I wouldn’t fault anyone for playing Bubba Watson ($7,400 DK; $9,200 FD) or Adam Hadwin ($7,300 DK; $8,500) on DraftKings in this range, but I think I’m steering clear of both of them, especially on FanDuel.
The Hidden Treasures
I know I’ve said this before, but ALL of these guys are good or they wouldn’t be here. While it is as unlikely for one of the guys below $7K to win as it is for me to win a LOL multi-entry tournament, it can happen. So, we need to take a closer look (especially in Majors with the pricing) and see if we can find one or two that will allows to expand our use of Budget Breakers.
Mackenzie Hughes ($6,600 DK; $7,100 FD) – He’s been playing well and a made cut here is all you need to pay off. Since the return he has a T44-T6-T48-T3-MC. Had a 2nd prior to the shutdown.
Sepp Straka ($6,500 DK; $7,200 FD) – Started slow out of the Post-COVID gate, but has 3 Top 20s since. Boom or bust, but that’s all of the guys in this price range.
Snap Hooks: Joost Luiten ($6,700 DK; No Price Yet on FD)
Russell Henley ($6,600 DK; No Price Yet on FD)
Graeme McDowell ($6,500 DK; $8,200 FD)
I threw Joost Luiten in because he’s a name that not many people will not pay attention to because he mainly plays in Europe. Upsides: Low Ownership & Solid Play. Downsides: Hasn’t played a lot in the U.S.
NOTE: FanDuel hasn’t added a few guys as of the writing of this article. They will, but it isn’t that important because most, if not all, will be in the minimum price range.
POWER FADE(s):
DRAFTKINGS: Tiger Woods ($9,200 DK; $11,200 FD)
FANDUEL: Tiger Woods ($9,200 DK; $11,200 FD)
Justin Rose ($7,800 DK; $10,400 FD)
PICK TO WIN: Xander Schauffele
LONGSHOT TO WIN: Tommy Fleetwood
This may seem like a cop-out, but on DK, I would play any of the guys above Tiger at $9,200 in multiple lineups before Tiger. He can come out and “shock the world” at any time. I know that! However, I’m out this week.
On FD, I’m definitely out on Tiger as well at $11,200. I thought I would throw Justin Rose in there too for those of you looking for someone different. I WILL PLAY Justin Rose on DraftKings given that price, but absolutely not on FanDuel. And, by “will play”, I mean one lineup max.
Slack Chat is an important tool offered here. I’m on it regularly. It is IMPOSSIBLE to touch on every potential lineup option in an article. If you have questions, ask! If you have an idea, lay it out! If I can’t come up with a rationale to talk you out of it, use it! Your GUT can be a key in PGS-DFS.
REMEMBER, it’s called GOLF because all of the other 4-letter words were taken!