ADP Analysis: QB1 | QB2 | Starting RBs | Backup RBs | Starting WRs | Backup WRs | TEs
(Editor’s note: To view the best ADP available anywhere online, please check out our Advanced ADP tool, which pulls draft results only from the 10 most recent FFWC drafts. Only the best and cash-winning players play high-stakes so this ADP is simply a cut above!)
The best high-stakes fantasy owners like to cheat the quarterback position. The quarterback inventory has plenty of depth with many backend QBs featuring WRs with high ranking value. If a wide receiver is well respected in drafts, it only makes sense that his quarterback should have a reasonable floor. This theory will lead to some unexpected late opportunities at the quarterback position each draft season.
There have been many seasons in the NFL when a quarterback offers an impact separator score. When this happens, they are worth an early draft pick for sure. It’s a fine line trading running back and wide receiver strength to land a stud quarterback. Even if you decide to pick a quarterback between round six and round ten, you could be losing out on a critical backup player with upside.
When I start looking at my best options at quarterback, I’m looking for his team to have three strong wide receivers, one elite pass-catching back, and a solid passing tight end. A quarterback with five options in the passing game will force a defense to defend the whole field, leading to impact yards and touchdowns.
The changing draft flow and depth at quarterback have led to many fantasy owners waiting on the position in the scoring system at the Fantasy Football World Championships over the past few seasons. Here’s a look at the Advanced ADPs for the top 12 QBs in 2020:
The coin flip for the top quarterback this season is between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes averaged 30.15 fantasy points in 2018 over 16 games, and Jackson pushed the quarterback the envelope even higher last year (30.33 fantasy points over 15 starts).
Jackson gained a massive edge with his value as a runner. Each of his rushing yards (0.1 fantasy points) count double compared to passing yards (0.05 fantasy points) in FFWC scoring. His rushing touchdowns were worth 1.5 passing touchdowns in four-point passing touchdown leagues.
The debate here comes from Jackson’s success in passing TDs (36) in 2019. He averaged 26.7 passes per game, which is more than 20 percent lower than the league average. When looking at his receiving core, I have a tough time coming up with 25 passing touchdowns.
Jackson is ultra-talented, and I expect him to improve this year.
Mahomes has all the tools to post another 5,000-plus passing yards with a high floor in touchdowns. He has an edge at WR1 with Tyreek Hill and at tight end with Travis Kelce. His missing link last year was upside pass-catching back, which was addressed in this year’s draft class. Mahomes ultimate finish on the 2020 rankings hinges on the production at WR2 and WR3.
The Cowboys passing game emerged over the last year and a half with the addition of Amari Cooper. They added another dynamic piece to the air attack in this year’s draft class (CeeDee Lamb). If he hits the ground running, Prescott has four significant threats in the passing game, while also adding some value with his legs. The only question here is the value/success of his tight ends.
The next exciting quarterback in the NFL is Kyler Murray. The Cardinals added one of the top wide receivers in the game with DeAndre Hopkins. He has a pass-catching back with viable options at WR2 and WR3. Murray is a top-five rushing quarterback in the NFL He is the right kind of investment at quarterback while having an ADP fifty picks lower than Jackson and Mahomes.
The next three quarterback options (Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen) all offer help via the run game with enough talent at wide receiver to rank in the top ten in wide receiver scoring. Even so, each player does have a question with his ceiling this year.
Matt Ryan has two top wide receivers with a chance of gaining a passing-catching back if Todd Gurley can regain his previous form with the Rams. Ryan will throw a ton of passes, which helps his floor.
The undervalued quarterback in this group is Tom Brady. His top two wide receivers get drafted over the first two rounds in many drafts. The depth and talent at tight end give Brady plenty of options in scoring in the red zone. His only missing link or question mark is a top pass-catching back. Brady looks to be a steal in any league that he is drafted after round ten.
Daniel Jones doesn’t have name value, but the sum of his parts in the passing game and his ability to run paints him a top ten quarterback option in 2020. The key here is the health of his receiving corps. He is my surprise QB for 2020 and I anticipate him breaking into the top-12 at the position.
For more in-depth writeups about quarterbacks and all players in 2020, a fantasy owner has to look no further than my Team Outlooks series, where each team’s outlook is complete with updates provided over the summer.
The quarterback position is vital over the long football season. Still, a lower level quarterback can match the elite players over the short-haul in the championship rounds of the high-stakes market. Reviewing the QB ADPs before sitting at the draft table will help you make better decisions in your draft plan.
