5 Mid-Round Value Wide Receivers

Mid-Round Value Series: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

It’s fair to say that come draft day; I often hope that the owners who will surround my draft position will be those with a strong affection for “yellow stickers.” After becoming the first-ever back-to-back FFWC Top 100 Players in the World Invitational Champion (2017 and 2018), I decided to take my game to the next level of high-stakes and jump into the 10K Top Gun League in 2019.

In that league, I was awarded the 12th overall pick, and I was disappointed when eight of the first eleven players off the board in front of me were all running backs. However, it allowed me to grab Saints stud Michael Thomas and Chiefs electric speedster Tyreek Hill on the wrap-around. Grabbing those two early helped open the draft board, enabling me to grab Austin Ekeler in the sixth round, Mark Andrews in the 14th, and Dak Prescott in the 15th.

Those selections helped me earn my first-ever high-stakes FFWC Top Gun Championship, but it’s also important to highlight the effects that mid-round wide receivers John Brown and Darius Slayton had on my team. To achieve fantasy glory in PPR formats, fantasy owners must target mid-round wideout value.

As we all know, there is no way any fantasy football player will see Michael Thomas fall beyond the top-five players off the board in 2020. Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, and Chris Godwin will all require high capital to secure their services this upcoming season.

The strategy should always be to let the board come to you and never “follow the run” come draft day. If you can lock-in two workhorse running backs early on, there is a plethora of mid-round wide receiver talent to target later in drafts in 2020.

Now we get to the fun part, which mid-round wide receiver talent offers the best value in 2020? My model has five players flying below the radar who fantasy owners should target this season. You may be surprised at who my projections are high on, but I can tell you that I am not high on either Brandin Cooks or Will Fuller in 2020.

AJ Green ADP 61 (5.01)

Many fantasy owners have soured on Green, but you should not be one of them. As we know, we haven’t seen Green in between the white lines since 2018 due to injuries. However, since he has his name written in red ink on many owners’ draft boards, we are seeing the former fantasy stud fall into the fifth round or later. With LSU star Joe Burrow now under center and a season-win total projection of 5.5 in Las Vegas, it’s fair to surmise that the Bengals will be behind in many games this upcoming season. As we know, “garbage time” is often “glory time” in fantasy football, and my model projects the rookie quarterback leaning on the veteran who has amassed 6,500 receiving yards and 45 touchdowns in just 80 games in the NFL. If Green is healthy, he could easily be the steal of drafts.

Julian Edelman ADP 82 (6.8)

With Tom Brady now in Tampa Bay, many fantasy owners will expect regression from the PPR star. The argument makes sense that he will not be an elite WR1 in fantasy football in 2020, however late-sixth / early seventh-round value for last year’s overall WR7? Really? Whether it’s former Auburn standout Jarrett Stidham or newly signed Cam Newton under center for the Patriots, Edelman will be the focal target. He is truly a great sleeper come draft day as a player who offers a high ceiling being paid minimal attention. With triple-digit target projection, my model lands upon another season in Foxboro above 72 receptions and 850 yards with 6.6 touchdowns.

Robby Anderson ADP 119 (9.9)

Sam Darnold will miss his top target in New York in 2020, but new Carolina Panthers signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater will be delighted to now have his services. It should not be overlooked that Anderson will also be reunited with his former Temple head coach Matt Rhule in Carolina, so we know he will know how to best use the speedy wideouts’ talents. The Panthers are another team with a 5.5 game season-win total in Las Vegas, and that once again means Carolina will be playing from behind often, leading to a reliance on the passing attack in the second-half of games. Being drafted outside the top-100 equals a late-9th to early-10th round range that screams value. There is no doubt that the Panthers offense will feature star running Christian McCaffrey and fellow wideout D.J. Moore. However, it should also not be overlooked that Bridgewater spent time in New York back in 2018 in the pre-season and training camp throwing passes to Anderson. The downfield threat will have all the support of his college coach to become one of the true breakout stars at the position in 2020.

Diontae Johnson ADP 124 (10.3)  

With Ben Roethlisberger back under center in 2020, the sky’s the limit for this second-year wideout. If Johnson was able to put up 59 receptions for 680 yards and five touchdowns with a hodgepodge of quarterbacks, imagine what he can do with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback tossing the rock. Going off the board in double-digit rounds, the former Toledo standout offers more value than his counterpart JuJu Smith-Schuster who is currently demanding third-round draft capital at the top of drafts. While injury-riddled risks like Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller will come off the board much earlier, my model suggests grabbing the upside on the emerging talent in a skilled passing attack. My projections envision a player being drafted as a bench/stash position who easily emerges as a low-end WR2 / high-end WR3.


Sammy Watkins ADP 129 (10.8)

Let me see here… Watkins is a starting wide receiver running routes in the best offense in the league (KC) while catching passes from the best quarterback (Patrick Mahomes). Yes, that appears to be correct. The former Clemson standout was the Chiefs best wideout in last season’s postseason run to Super Bowl glory with 288 receiving yards on 14 receptions playing alongside Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. I understand that Watkins has found a way to burn fantasy owners who have perennially invested high draft capital believing in his talents. However, the WR2 in this offense that can be had in the 10th round deserves immediate attention. Watkins has steadily improved with Mahomes as his reception totals have improved from 40 to 52 and his receiving yards from 519 to 673. However, the biggest stat to take note of is the targets, 55 to 90. As Mahomes begins to build more of a rapport and trust with Watkins, my model envisions a rise in his touchdown projection.

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