The Burning Edge
Congratulations to Daniel Berger on an excellent finish on Sunday at Colonial. In my opinion that was the best win in his young career. The field was stacked and he stepped up to the challenge. We have another stacked field this week and many first timers at Harbour Town. The leaderboards will look much different than other years so don’t focus on course history. With big names showing up every week we need to start focusing more on form then statistics. When a great golfer is playing well consistently that supersedes a good golfer with course history, and good stats. No debate. Let’s go find our edge!
Tournament Stop
Tournament: RBC Heritage
Defending Champion: CT Pan -12
Course: Harbour Town GL
Yardage: 7,099
Par: 71
Greens: Bermuda
*Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut (No MDF)
Course Tidbits
The PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head, SC for the RBC Heritage. Like Colonial, Harbour Town is on the short side of PGA Tour courses and the fairways are lined with trees. Harbour Town is a shot makers course and the driver isn’t necessary on every hole. Unless you’re Bryson Dechambeau and you can overpower any dogleg on tour.
It’s worth noting this is a Pete Dye design. Famously known for blind approach shots, hard to hit greens and tricks only experienced golfers will be aware of. However, don’t let that scare you away from first time golfers.
This is a coastal course so watch weather as the week goes on. Wind can always be a factor and will add another element to make things even more interesting come Sunday.
Key Stats
SG Short Game: Top 10 in field
-Jordan Spieth
-Webb Simpson
-Sungjae IM
-Aaron Baddeley
-Peter Malnati
-Ian Poulter
-Patton Kizzire
-Harris English
-Matthew Fitzpatrick
-Graeme McDowell
Par 4 (400-450): Top 10 in field
-Webb Simpson
-Tom Hoge
-Rafa Cabrera Bello
-Byeong Hun An
-Doc Redman
-Scott Piercy
-Harris English
-Scottie Scheffler
-Sungjae IM
-Matthew Fitzpatrick
SG Ball Striking: Top 10 in field
-Rory McIlroy
-Colin Morikawa
-Jon Rahm
-Scottie Scheffler
-Jhonattan Vegas
-Webb Simpson
-Justin Thomas
-Jason Dufner
-Scott Piercy
-Joel Dahmen
Top 10 overall rankings
-Webb Simpson
-Rory McIlroy
-Sungjae Im
-Harris English
-Jon Rahm
-Byeong Hun An
-Joel Dahmen
-Scott Piercy
-Bud Cauley
-Sergio Garcia
These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.
Top Notch Options
Best plays on the slate with winning upside.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,700 DK, $11,900 FD): Rattling off four top 5 performances in a row DeChambeau is on a mission to prove that power can change the game. Last week he gained a staggering 10.4 strokes Tee to Green. DeChambeau has no worse than 8.7 strokes gained Tee to Green in his last four tournaments. The mad scientist has found a key ingredient to his success and will ride this power train to victory. This course doesn’t require distance off the tee but when he starts to cut corners he might find himself with a short wedge on every hole and ample birdie chances to follow.
Sungjae IM ($9,700 DK, $10,900 FD): The 2019 rookie of the year hasn’t skipped a beat in 2020. In fact, he has been better, now with three straight top 10 finishes and a win mixed in he has shot up in price. With so many big names around him and a missed cut here last season his ownership should stay relatively low. I have complete confidence in Sungjae making the cut and producing scoring chances every round. In his last three tournaments he has gained strokes in every major category. The kid doesn’t have a single hole in his game and it only takes a hot putter for him to end up with another win.
Salary Savers
Salary relief for balanced builds.
Daniel Berger ($8,900 DK, $10,600 FD): After years of playing PGA DFS the winner from the previous week seems to have a sign on back that says “don’t play me, I am not going to play great back to back weeks”. Don’t worry Daniel, I will be your friend and take that sign off your back. This golf season is now different than any other season in PGA Tour history. We will regularly see the same big names week after week. These guys are so ready to play golf they will play four or five tournaments in a row. Berger will attempt to keep his stellar play alive and make a run at back to back wins. His form is incredible, with four tournaments straight in the top 10’s.
Ian Poulter ($7,600 DK, $9,400 FD): Harbour Town GL will reward great short game. Poulter has gained strokes around the greens and putting in his last four tournaments. Poulter’s best greens are Bermuda and in past years at this course he has gained strokes puting. As long as he can keep the tee balls in the fairway he will give us plenty of chances for birdies and help pay off his very fair salary.
Tourney Treasures
Lower owned golfers with upside.
Jason Kokrak ($7,900 DK, $9,900 FD): Last weekend Kokrak found something in his game and put himself in contention with a scorching 64 on Sunday. Kokrak gained strokes in every major category last week. If he brings that all-around game this week he will put himself in a great position come Sunday. Last year Kokrak had a stretch where he rattled off four straight top twenty finishes. He is a form golfer and when he finds “it” he is worth riding until he cools down again. Ownership will be low again because the price range he is in.
Bud Cauley ($7,200 DK, $8,800 FD): Cauley has managed six straight cuts made in a row. This has been done without his “A” game. Last week he gained strokes in every major category except approach. This was the first time he lost strokes on approach since the Farmers in January. If he can get back on track with his irons he will be an extreme value at his current price tag. To make this decision a little easier his best putting performances happen on Bermuda greens.
Sneaky Suspicion
Gut Play.
Bubba Watson ($7,400 DK, $9,700 FD): Bubba is one of the most notoriously streaky golfers on tour. When he has a good tournament he is always worth a look the following week. He must have been working on his putting during the long break because he gained over five strokes putting at Colonial. Bentgrass is his worst putting surface. Bermuda he putts better on and this course forces you to make putts to put yourself in contention. Bubba gained strokes in every major category last week, this puts him firmly in play at that price. You rarely get a golfer under $7,500 that has over 10 wins on the PGA Tour.
On The Edge
Rounding out the golfers in my player pool.
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Justin Rose
Webb Simpson
Patrick Reed
Gary Woodland
Abraham Ancer
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Louis Oosthuizen
JT Poston
Joel Dahmen
Harris English
Russell Henley
Maverick McNealy
Max Homa
CHIII
Outrights and Props
Pick(s) to Win: Bryson DeChambeau 14/1, Sungjae IM 30/1
Value(s) Win: Justin Rose 30/1, Daniel Berger 40/1
Longshot(s) to Win: Bubba Watson 100/1
First Round Leader(s): Rory McIlroy 22/1, Harris English 80/1, Sepp Straka 200/1