June 8th, 2020
The Burning Edge
Golf is back! Nearing a three-month hiatus, we finally have a major sport to watch. I hope everyone is excited as I am about having a four-day DFS sweat back in our weekly routines. We have an excellent tournament to kick us back off. DraftKings and FanDuel have massive prize pools this week in hopes to capture the average sports fans attention and bring them into a sport they wouldn’t normally play. Someone will walk away with a million dollars on a non-major event. This is BIG.
The volatility of PGA DFS will be at an all-time high this week. The number of unknowns is insurmountable between form, possible withdrawals, endurance, preparation, no fans, etc. This will truly be a test for all PGA Analysts. Let me make this clear. Not a single golfer is considered “safe” this week. Period. If you hear another analyst call a golfer “safe” do yourself a favor and stop listening. We will be taking chances this week. We did not just go through a pandemic and months without entertainment to play it safe. Let’s go make some money.
Tournament Stop
Tournament: Charles Schwab Challenge
Defending Champion: Kevin Na -13
Course: Colonial CC
Yardage: 7,204
Par: 70
Greens: Bent Grass
*Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut (No MDF)
Course Tidbits
Colonial rewards accuracy off the tee. A true second shot course that can be scored on with a hot flat stick.
The course has trouble but nothing to daunting. Colonial contains 75 bunkers, mainly protecting the greens. If we find golfers that can strike the ball well this week and scramble when they have a miss hit, we can find our key to success.
The average cut line hovers around 3 under par and the winning score will be in the teens. However, this is the strongest this field has ever been, and scores might look a little different than in the past. Course history can be thrown out the window in my opinion this week.
Key Stats
SG Approach: Top 10 in field
-Justin Thomas
-Branden Grace
-Gary Woodland
-Jason Day
-Scott Piercy
-Bryson DeChambeau
-Matt Kuchar
-Daniel Berger
-Andrew Putnam
-Scottie Scheffler
Par 4 (400-450): Top 10 in field
-Joaquin Niemann
-Harris English
-Billy Horschel
-Jason Day
-Doc Redman
-Tony Finau
-Patrick Reed
-Rafa Cabrera Bello
-Justin Rose
-Brooks Koepka
SG Putting: Top 10 in field
-Rickie Fowler
-Beau Hossler
-Webb Simpson
-Alex Noren
-Patrick Rodgers
-Jason Day
-Harris English
-Graeme McDowell
-Jordan Spieth
-Zach Johnson
Top 10 overall rankings
-Rickie Fowler
-Jason Day
-Webb Simpson
-Joaquin Niemann
-Brooks Keopka
-Kevin Na
-Tony Finau
-Rory McIlroy
-Matt Kuchar
-Jon Rahm
These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.
Top Notch Options
Best plays on the slate with winning upside.
Jon Rahm: I believe the next golfer to be number one in the world will be Jon Rahm. Rory will not give that spot up easily. Rahm knows that and realizes it will take wins in strong field events like this to take it from Rory. With that motivation and an elite all-around golf game he is the man to beat this week. This course gives advantage to second shot players who can makes their 5-10 ft putts. Before the break Rahm had his putter locked in and his iron play is exceptional. With his accuracy off the tee he will give himself plenty of scoring chances and gives us plenty of fantasy points to help start our lineups with.
Brooks Kopeka: This is my pivot off chalky Webb Simpson. I doubt many people will be on this play. Before the long hiatus Brooks was in poor form, and with the captivating names surrounding him he will likely get lost in the shuffle. I picture this week being highly volatile, more so than a normal PGA event. The vast amount of unknown’s will be most people’s crutch this week. While most take the “safe” bets, I will happily fire up the strong field champion in Brooks Koepka. Don’t sleep on a four-time major winner.
Salary Savers
Salary relief for balanced builds.
Tony Finau: Finau is still in search of his first (real) PGA tour win. Last year he made a run at it finishing second here. Normally I don’t go right back to a golfer based on course history but Finau shows up in every major. This week has such a major feel. The best part about his game is the scoring ability. Even if he places 25th he can still reach value with the number of birdies and eagle chances he gets week in and week out.
Harris English: This is his year. English was on an absolute terror before the long break. I hope he has continued to play and keep his irons sharp throughout this time. I had a win for him in my books this year, I just hope this break doesn’t ruin what would have been his best season in his entire career. I am going to back to the well until it dries out.
Tourney Treasures
Lower owned golfers with upside.
Gary Woodland: Woodland has immense talent and is a proven tour winner. The only downside is his lack of course experience. This week so many golfers are playing Colonial for the first time, but Woodland has so much golf experience that doesn’t scare me away. Woodland popped out to me when I realized how important second shots are at this course. His ball striking is elite, he will have plenty of birdie opportunities this week. Also, if the Texas winds pick up, he can flight the ball low enough to cut through it and negate that weather factor.
Joaquin Niemann: Joaquin the Dream! Back in action, ready to showcase his young elite talent to a lot of new golf fans. The mechanics this kid brings to the table can’t be matched when it comes to ball striking at his age. He will only get better with experience and age. I believe in his short-term and long-term success. A complete golfer that excels putting on bent grass greens. A solid value in this field.
Sneaky Suspicion
Gut Play.
Maverick McNealy: A true upcoming star on the PGA Tour. With so many known talents in the field this week and around his price range he will fall under 6% ownership in GPP’s. I will happily back him at that ownership while others take a “safer” route. The kid brings an all-around golf game to the table. I have a feeling the putter will be his best friend this week and help him make yet another cut with top 25 upside. McNealy will be a name you won’t soon forget.
On The Edge
Rounding out the golfers in my player pool.
Rory McIlroy
Webb Simpson
Rickie Fowler
Sungjae Im
Justin Rose
Matt Kuchar
Scottie Scheffler
Kevin Na
Kevin Kisner
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tom Hoge
Russell Knox
Jim Furyk
Erik Van Rooyen
Talor Gooch
Alex Noren
Brendon Todd
Bernhard Langer
Outrights and Props
Pick(s) to Win: Jon Rahm 12/1, Brooks Koepka 25/1
Value(s) Win: Gary Woodland 50/1
Longshot(s) to Win: Alex Noren 150/1, Jim Furyk 150/1
First Round Leader(s): Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80/1, Erik Van Rooyen 100/1, Tom Hoge 100/1