The next stop on the Cup Series schedule is Martinsville Speedway, and in addition to being held on a Wednesday, the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 will be the first scheduled night race at the paperclip-shaped short track.
If you have been playing NASCAR DFS at DraftKings since the sport returned to action, then you are already used to no practices or traditional qualifying. It was the same setup for Martinsville with a random draw based off owner points setting the starting lineup. As a result, we once again have most of the heavy hitters starting up front while the easy sources of place differential points are either scarce or have elevated price tags.
In order to combat the pricing being used by DraftKings, I’ve been trying to take advantage of the drivers with dominator upside whose price tags are reduced as a result of strong starting spots. This strategy should be particularly effective at in a 500-lap race.
With so many points available in the laps led and fastest laps categories, differential points were already going to be devalued a bit. It makes even less sense to heavily pursue them at an inflated cost.
Yes, I’ll still be rounding out a lot of my lineups with cheaper options starting deeper in the field, but I also plan to roster three or four drivers with legitimate dominator potential, even if it means all of them are starting in or around the Top 5 and Top 10.
Must-Own Drivers
Chase Elliott ($11,500)
Aside from the fact that Elliott has been one of the best in the series all year, he’s also been great at flat tracks throughout his career, Martinsville included. He led 49 laps and recorded 82 fastest laps in a runner-up effort here last spring, and despite starting dead last in the fall race, he managed to record 27 fastest laps and work his way into the Top 10 before suffering a broken axle. Elliott starts 11th Wednesday, giving him some spots to gain on top of the dominator upside. I’d feel very confident with him as the anchor to my DFS lineups.
Kyle Busch ($10,700)
We are still waiting for a win from Busch, but it’s not like he has been struggling. He has six Top 5s in the eight races leading up to Martinsville, logging three runner-up finishes. More importantly, he looked like his dominant self at Bristol, leading 100 laps and posting the best green flag speed. Busch has eight Top 5s and a 4.1 average finish in his last nine Martinsville starts, leading at least 100 laps four times in that span. Rolling off seventh, I’m expecting a bunch of dominator points out of him Wednesday.
Ryan Blaney ($8,400)
I understand that starting on the pole creates the opportunity for some negative place differential points, but this price tag seems ridiculously low for Blaney. After all, we are talking about a guy who has cracked the Top 5 and recorded more than 20 fastest laps in three of the last four Martinsville races. He also led 145 laps in the spring race in 2018. He should at least provide a strong finish and a decent amount of dominator points, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him lead the most laps Wednesday. I am going to have him in a majority of my lineups.
Cash Plays
Brad Keselowski ($9,500)
Keselowski has provided the ideal blend of reliability and upside at Martinsville. He has eight straight Top 10s at the track, cracking the Top 5 seven times and winning twice. He has led more than 100 laps three times in that stretch, leading 446 laps in his win last spring. He has also recorded at least 28 fastest laps in seven of those starts, logging at least 75 fastest laps four times. At this price with his numbers, Keselowski is a no-brainer addition to cash lineups.
Christopher Bell ($8,200)
He was a short track stud at the XFINITY level, and a ninth-place run at Bristol a couple of weeks ago suggests that the trend could continue in the Cup Series. Plus, he starts back in 32nd, so he doesn’t even need to have a Top 10 run to provide value. At worst, I think Bell finishes around 20th and delivers 30-plus fantasy points. He offers a strong floor and decent upside for a midrange price.
Ty Dillon ($6,200)
Dillon’s upside is limited, but he usually stays out of trouble and ends up in the Top 25. He actually has a 21.0 average finish in six career starts at Martinsville, picking up a couple of Top 15s. After drawing the 30th starting spot, Dillon is a safe bet to earn positive differential points, and his price tag provides plenty of flexibility elsewhere. He should be a relatively safe source of cap relief.
Ryan Preece ($5,700)
I don’t think Preece is going to be a surprise Top 10 contender Wednesday, but I do think he is easily the safest option priced below $6,000. He starts 28th, but he finished in the Top 20 in both Martinsville races last year. Preece should provide a mid-pack finish and a handful of differential points while freeing up plenty of cap space.
GPP Specials
Denny Hamlin ($11,900)
His most recent win at Martinsville came in the spring of 2015, but Hamlin is a five-time winner at the track overall, and he remains one of the best in the business here. He has three straight Top 5s, leading 30-plus laps in two of those starts. In fact, Hamlin has led more than 20 laps in five of the last 10 Martinsville races and recorded more than 40 fastest laps in four of them. This is a hefty price tag, but even starting 12th, he is capable of piling up dominator points.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300)
He has just one Top 5 finish all year, but Truex has shown race-winning speed multiple times. He has also been locked in at Martinsville, posting a 3.6 average finish in the last five races and leading an incredible 464 laps in a win in the fall race last year. Starting in the Top 5, a statement performance could be on tap. I’d make sure to have some exposure to Truex Wednesday night.
Clint Bowyer ($8,600)
Bowyer is probably going to be an all-or-nothing play from the fourth starting spot, but there is a high ceiling here. He usually has his best runs at short tracks, and he has finished seventh or better in four of his six starts at Martinsville with Stewart-Haas, leading 215 laps in a win in 2018. Bowyer could provide a chunk of dominator points for a midrange price. He’s a potential pivot from Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski.
Daniel Suarez ($7,100)
He isn’t in great equipment, but he has been able to approach the Top 25 most weeks. Starting way back in 37-th, there is legit potential for double-digit place differential points, and he could gain 15-plus spots if attrition is high. Keep Suarez in mind as a contrarian to Ty Dillon or Christopher Bell.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,000)
DiBenedetto hasn’t had a breakout performance at Martinsville, but I think that could change Wednesday night. He will be making his first start at the track for the Wood Brothers, a satellite of Team Penske, and Penske drivers have excelled at the short track. I think he has sneaky Top 10 upside, and starting 19th, DiBenedetto could provide a big point for a cheap price.
Aric Almirola ($6,400)
Starting on the front row, Almirola has the potential to ruin lineups if he has a bad afternoon. However, his price tag is so low that he can deliver value even he slides back a bit. He started in the Top 5 in both races at Martinsville last year, and he recorded at least 18 fastest laps in both, finishing in the Top 10 in the spring. If Almirola can duplicate his performance from last spring, he will be a bargain. Use him as a pivot to Ty Dillon or Ryan Preece.