With a pair of races at Charlotte in the books, the Cup Series teams must turn their attention to Bristol Motor Speedway. The high-banked, half-mile oval will host the first short track race of the 2020 season, and it is going to require a bit of a different approach to building NASCAR DFS lineups at DraftKings.
While we still don’t have any practice or qualifying sessions, the ping-pong balls have spoken, and we do know the starting lineup for Sunday’s Food City 500. With the field being set by a random draw, there were some bigger names that will start deeper in the field, including Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer.
These drivers certainly deserve your attention in cash contests, but since DraftKings knows the starting positions prior to posting their contests, the salaries of these drivers reflect their added place differential upside. In 500-lap race, I don’t think you want to put all your eggs in the differential basket, especially if it means tying up a significant chunk of salary.
Between the higher attrition rate that comes with short track racing and the variety of pit strategies that teams use to gain track position, there are usually at least three drivers who earn a substantial amount of points in the dominator categories. If you plan on taking down bigger contests, you need as much exposure to these dominator points as possible.
I’d rather pay for three mid-priced drivers who I feel can contend for a Top 5 and lead some laps than two higher-priced options who can run in the Top 10 and gain about 10 spots. I’ll go after place differential points with my cheaper options that round out my roster.
Must-Own Drivers
Kyle Busch ($12,500)
Bristol has been Busch’s playground throughout his career, and he has shown no signs of letting up. He is an eight-time winner here overall, and he has three wins in the last five races alone. Busch has also led at least 30 laps in four of those five races, leading 70-plus laps three times. I know he hasn’t led a lot of laps in 2020, but he has four finishes of fourth or better in the six races leading up to Bristol. Starting seventh, don’t be surprised when he flexes his muscle at a track where he been one of the best to ever get behind the wheel.
Chase Elliott ($11,300)
Elliott seems to have a rocket ship under him just about every week, and I don’t see the trend ending at Bristol. He has two Top 5s in his last three starts here, leading more than 30 laps in all three of those races. In 2020, he has led more than 20 laps in six of the eight races, including three straight. Elliott gets to start sixth Sunday, and I expect him to be out front early and often, racking up those valuable dominator points.
Brad Keselowski ($9,100)
His recent results at Bristol haven’t been pretty, but Keselowski has not been a stranger to the front of the field. He has led at least 40 laps and recorded at least 27 fastest laps in three of the last four races here, leading 91 laps in a third-place finish last summer. Keselowski drew the pole for this weekend’s event, and at the very least, I think he piles up a chunk of dominator points in Stage 1.
Cash Plays
Joey Logano ($10,700)
If you are paying a lot for a driver in a cash lineup, you want a combination of reliability and upside, and Logano checks both boxes at Bristol. He has seven Top 10s in the last nine races here, finishing no worse than 16th. Logano has also led more than 30 laps five times in that span, leading 70-plus laps four times. In fact, he led 146 laps and logged 71 fastest laps in a third-place effort last spring. He is scheduled to start third Sunday, so he is well positioned to pile up dominator points once again.
Jimmie Johnson ($10,200)
Johnson has been among the safest options at Bristol the last few years, and his 8.9 average finish in the last 10 races at the track is the best in the series. He is tied for the series lead with seven Top 10s in that same stretch, and now that he is starting 24-th, his already safe floor is pushed even higher. Johnson should be a staple of cash linueps.
Clint Bowyer ($9,800)
He had a tough qualifying draw, but Bowyer starting 23rd and Bristol is cash contest gold. He has always been stout at short track, and he has five finishes of eighth or better in six Bristol starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Bowyer even led 120 laps here in the 2018 night race. He should be one of the biggest movers Sunday and one of the safest bets for a solid score.
Bubba Wallace ($7,500)
Wallace probably cause a lot of money to change hands Wednesday night when a surprise Top 10 effort ended with a broken hub, but he should redeem himself to the DFS world Sunday at Bristol. He has to start in 36th, but he has managed Top 20 finishes in three of his four Bristol starts, and Wallace gained eight spots in both 2019 events here. Starting so far back, he can post a serviceable point total just by sneaking into the Top 25.
Christopher Bell ($7,300)
He will make his first Cup start at Bristol this weekend, and thanks to the qualifying draw, Bell will have to start back in 35th. The good news is that the rookie has shown Top 10 upside the last few races, and he was a force at the short tracks in the XFINITY Series, winning six of his 14 starts. Even if he just approaches the Top 20, the place differential category will keep his value afloat.
GPP Specials
Denny Hamlin ($11,600)
Hamlin really hasn’t looked dominant since the Daytona 500, but when you look at the stat sheet, he has two wins already and three Top 5s in the four races since the series returned to action. He also notched Top 5s in both Bristol races last year, winning the night race, and he leads all drivers with five Top 5s in the last 10 races at the track. Hamlin has enough dominator potential to throw into a few lineups.
Ryan Blaney ($8,600)
Starting inside the Top 5 comes with some risk, but Blaney has been among the best dominators at Bristol the last couple of years. He has reeled off three straight Top 10s here, and he has led at least 100 laps in three of his last four Bristol starts logging at least 20 fastest laps in all of them. I’ll be all over him as an alternative to obvious plays like Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott.
Kurt Busch ($8,300)
He might not have much place differential upside after drawing the No. 12 staring spot, but Bristol is a track where Busch can run up front. He is a six-time winner here, and he has three Top 5s and four Top 10s in the last five races, including a runner-up effort last spring. Consider pivoting to him as a much cheaper dominator option.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400)
Three straight bad finishes at Bristol, along with his seemingly natural ability to crash cars, are a concern, but you can’t deny his upside this weekend. Stenhouse has three Top 5s here in 10 starts since 2015, and he has a little momentum after his surprisingly strong run at Charlotte Wednesday. He’s cheap enough to gamble on his Top 5 potential.
Erik Jones ($7,000)
Jones is one of my favorite values available this weekend. Granted, he has had issues avoiding trouble at Bristol, but he has also shown a ton of speed at the track. He has a pair of Top 5 finishes in six starts, including a runner-up effort in 2017 when he led a race-high 260 laps. Last year, Jones led double-digit laps in both Bristol races. Starting 15th, he has room for some differential points to go with his dominator upside. I love him as a contrarian to Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer.
Ryan Preece ($6,000)
He remains inconsistent, but Preece has shown a little more speed in his second Cup season. He also has plenty of experience at short tracks, and last year, he finished 25th and 18th in the two Bristol races, gaining five spots in each. Preece will start 33rd Sunday, and I think he has Top 20 upside.