Boston Red Sox
Regression in Boston’s pitching (4.70 ERA – 19th) in 2019 led to 24 fewer wins and failure to make the postseason for the first time since 2015. Boston allowed 181 more runs than they did in 2018 (647 – 3.75 ERA) while maintaining a high ranking in runs scored (901 – 4th). Over the past 17 seasons, the Red Sox have made the playoffs 10 times with four World Series titles.
Boston signed SP Martin Perez, IF Jose Peraza, and C Kevin Plawecki to one-year contracts. They claimed IF Jonathan Arauz in this year’s Rule 5 Draft.
The Red Sox have strength in their core of young hitters, but they did lose OF Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in a trade that returned OF Alex Verdugo, SS Jeter Downs, and C Connor Wong. Boston was able to package David Price in the deal to save a big part of his contract.
Their bullpen remains in flux with no clear closing option. Boston needs a healthy season from Chris Sale along with solid innings from Nathan Eovaldi. Update: Chris Sale will miss 2020 after having TJ surgery on March 30th.
In 2020, the Red Sox need to climb the mountain in the AL East with the New York Yankees expected to run and hide. They can’t win without a top-tier pitching staff or a lock-down closer in the 9th inning.
Even with Boston getting a boost from some unsuspecting hitters in 2019, Benintendi lost value across the board. His strikeout rate (22.8) was a career-high, while his walk rate regressed (9.6). When he put the ball in play, his contact batting average (.359) fell in line with 2018 (.355) while repeating his career resume in his average hit rate (1.618). From June 1st to August 31st, Benintendi hit .302 with 36 runs, six HRs, 40 RBI over 275 at-bats. His season started with minor leg and foot injuries while picking up multiple other small issues along the way. Benintendi didn’t have an edge in his hard-hit rate (37.7), but he did rank higher in balls hit 95 MPH or more (87th). His fly-ball rate (40.7) is trending upward, but his HR/FB rate (7.9) is well below the top power hitters in the game. This spring, I would pay attention to the reports about his power and if he has added more bulk. In today’s game, Benintendi needs to push his home run total to a much higher level with a rebound in speed. His 2018 approach suggested a 20/20 floor with upside in batting average. His ADP sits at 95 in 12-teams leagues, while ranking 120th in SIscore value from his 2019 stats (18th in 2018). A possible .300-plus hitter with a balanced skill set.
Over six seasons in the minors, Verdugo hit .309 with 41 home runs, 271 RBI, and 44 steals over 1,956 at-bats. He already has two years of experience at AAA (.321 with 16 HRs, 106 RBI, and 17 SBs over 776 at-bats). His walk rate (8.0) was about league average in the minors and he had a low strikeout rate (11.4). In 2019 with the Dodgers, Verdugo hit .294 with 43 runs, 12 home runs, 44 RBI, and four stolen bases over 343 at-bats. His average hit rate (1.614) was the best of his career, with some regression in his CTBA (.344). He was tough to strikeout (13.0) while falling short in his walk rate (6.9). Verdugo played well against left-handed pitching (.327 with two HRs and nine RBI over 101 at-bats). Before the All-Star break, he hit .303 with 34 runs, nine home runs, and 39 RBI. His season ended in August due to an oblique injury, which led to minimal second-half stats (.261 over 69 at-bats with three HRs and five RBI). His hard-hit rate (39.3) ranked 175th in baseball. His swing path does produce a high number of ground balls (48.7 percent – 61.9 in 2018 with LA). Verdugo did improve his HR/FB rate (14.0). Tough out while offering a high average bat. He should push his power higher in 2020, but I wouldn’t expect a huge jump while adding some steals. With 550 at-bats and a top of the order opportunity, a fantasy owner should look for a .310-plus batting average with 80 runs, between 15 and 20 home runs, 75 RBI, and double-digit steals. His ADP was 227 in the early draft season, but a starting job pushed him to 122 in a recent draft.
In 2019, Devers led the majors in hits of 95 MPH or more (252) with strength in his hard-hit rate (47.7 – 31st). His rise to stardom started with an improved approach at the plate (strikeout rate – 17.0 and walk rate – 6.8) with growth in his HR/FB rate (17.7) and his RBI rate (21)). Last year, Devers did have some regression in his fly-ball rate (34.3) compared to his rookie season (38.6). He didn’t have a home run in April (.294 with no HRs and eight RBI over 102 at-bats) while playing at an elite level over four months (.344 with 93 runs, 27 HRs, 98 RBI, and five SBs over 433 at-bats). His CTBA (.381) matched his 2017 resume between the minors and Boston. Devers finished as the fifth-most valuable player in fantasy Roto formats last year. He is the real deal with more upside in power, considering his 54 doubles backing up his 32 home runs. His biggest question will be repeating his approach and keeping his body in shape. All the makings of a .300 hitter with 40/120 foundation in home runs and RBI. The question comes to buying his direction or expecting some fade after a big season.
Based on his previous two seasons, Martinez was slightly overpriced in 2019 due to regression across the board in his stats. He hit over .300 for the fourth straight season while maintaining a high contact batting average (.400). Boston’s lineup in front and behind him in the batting order led to fewer RBI chances (410 – 440 in 2018) and a slide in his run rate (40) for the second year in a row. His bat dominated lefties (.404 with 19 HRs and 40 RBI over 141 at-bats). Surprisingly, Martinez played better on the road (.333 with 18 HRs and 62 RBI over 294 at-bats) than at home (.274 with 18 HRs and 48 RBI over 316 at-bats). August was his best month (.394 with 10 HRs and 29 RBI), but he struggled in September (.228 with three HRs and 13 RBI). His strikeout rate (21.0) was a career low while setting his highest level in walks (11.0 percent). Martinez has strength in his HR/FB rate (23.4), but it is trending down (33.8 in 2017 and 29.5 in 2018). His swing did have more loft in 2015 (fly ball rate – 43.5) and 2017 (43.2). More of the same (.300/40/120) while losing some value in drafts (ADP – 23). In 2019, Martinez finished as the 23rd ranked hitter by SIscore (3rd in 2018).
Over the past two years, Bogaert transitioned from a good player to a stud. He set career highs in runs (110), doubles (52), HRs (33), and RBI (117). His RBI rate (19 – 20 in 2018) has been elite in back-to-back seasons while showing growth in his approach (strikeout rate – 17.5 and walk rate – 10.9) and his contact batting average (.386). Bogaerts shined at Fenway (.316 with 23 HRs and 80 RBI over 449 at-bats). He hit .299 or more each of the last five months (.314, .313, .346, .299, and .315). In 2019, he had most of his at-bats (317) hitting third in the batting order followed up by fifth (152) and fourth (91). His growth in power came from an improved fly-ball rate (39.8 – 34.2 in his career) and a rising HR/FB rate (16.7 – career-high). Boston has depth and strength in their batting order, which gives Bogaerts a chance at delivering an edge in runs and RBI depending on where he hits in 2020. Last year, Boston had big years from Devers and Bogaerts while Betts and Martinez regressed. Based on last year’s value in SIscore (14th), he looks underpriced in drafts considering his ADP (36). A rising player with plenty of talent surrounding him in Boston. Buy his floor of 200 combined runs and RBI with an edge in batting average and possible growth in power.
Despite only having 103 at-bats in his career at AAA, Chavis filled a big void for the Red Sox when they called him up on April 20th. Over six years in the minors, he hit .257 with 72 HRs, 242 RBI, and 22 SBs over 1585 at-bats. Chavis flashed in 2017 between High A and AA (.282 with 31 HRs and 94 RBI over 471 at-bats), but his spike in power may have been tied to PEDs (80 game suspension in 2018). Chavis had a high strikeout rate (25.6) in the minors with just below the league average in his walk rate (7.6). With Boston, he had more weakness in his strikeout rate (33.3). His fast start over 81 games (.268 with 17 HRs and 56 RBI over 306 at-bats) helped fantasy owners fill a big void in their starting lineup. Chavis suffered an oblique injury in mid-August, which cost him the final seven weeks of the season. In 2020, his best value will come as an option at second base. Plenty of excitement in his power upside, but it does come at a price. Chavis has a 30-plus home run swing supported by his average hit rate (1.75) in his career. His CTBA (.400) does offset some of his downside in batting average. It’s all about price point and team structure here. My bet is on regression.
Since his best season in 2016 (.267 with 26/87/9), Bradley has been a liability to fantasy teams. His strikeout rate (27.3) regressed for the third straight season with no sign of a rebound. Over his last three years, he had similar value in CTBA (.330, .329, and .327) with a trending average hit rate (1.874 – career-high). Bradley plays well on defense, which helps him stay in the lineup vs. lefties (.213 with four HRs and 16 RBI over 164 at-bats). He had 56 of his strikeouts against LH pitching (strikeout rate – 29.8). His only month of value came in June (.315 with five HRs and 14 RBI over 89 at-bats). Bradley has a ground ball swing (49.6 percent) with a spike in his HR/FB rate (18.4). Bench hitter at best with some replacement value if his swing is in rhythm. On the positive side, he may bump up a notch or two in the batting order to help his runs and RBI.
In 2011 at A ball, Vazquez appeared to be an upside prospect after he hit .283 with 18 HRs and 84 RBI over 392 at-bats. Over the next seven seasons, his bat lacked power and consistency. 2019 was a breakout year for Vazquez after setting career highs in at-bats (482), runs (66), double (26), HRs (23), and RBI (72). His growth was tied to an improved average hit rate (1.729) and a huge spike in his HR/FB rate (16.0 – 3.9 in 2018). Vazquez has a 3-to-1 ratio in strikeouts (101) to walks (33), but his strikeout rate (19.4) tends to be better than the league average (21.5). He played well vs. lefties (.285 with 11 HRs and 28 RBI over 158 at-bats) with his best success coming before the All-Star break (.299 with 14 HRs and 41 RBI over 254 at-bats). Fantasy owners have him priced as the ninth best option at catcher in 2020 with an ADP of 199. Torn between short-term stats and career resume. I would draft him as a 50/15/60 player with a reasonable batting average.
As fantasy owners do their research for 2020, Peraza is a perfect example of a player coming off a career year that turns into a complete bust. His CTBA (.283) was a disaster, along with his hard-hit rate (25.7). Even with a big year in 2019 (.288 with 85/14/58/23), Peraza didn’t have the average hit rate (1.444) to support growth or even repeated value in power. He is tough to strikeout (14.4) while barely taking any walks (4.2 percent). Peraza hit better against lefties (.287), but he only had one HR and six RBI over 108 at-bats. He did try to change his swing path (42.6 percent fly-ball rate – 35.9 in his career) while offering a lady-like HR/FB rate (4.4). This season, Boston should use him as a super-utility player while also having a chance to earn every-day at-bats if he rebounds. Peraza has the most upside in speed, but no chance of hitting at the top of the batting order. With 450 at-bats, maybe 10 HRs with a shot at 30-plus steals.
Over the two previous seasons, Dalbec gained value as a power hitter (59 HRs over 927 at-bats). His minor league career started with upside in 2016 at low A (.386 with seven HRs and 33 RBI over 132 at-bats). Strikeouts (29.8 percent strikeout rate) have been a problem, but his approach did show improvement in 2019 at AA (strikeout rate – 25.1 and walk rate – 15.5). Over his four seasons in the minors, Dalbec hit .261 with 79 HRs, 256 RBI, and 16 SBs over 1,370 at-bats). Swing-and-miss type of player who needs more time at AAA (.257 over 113 at-bats with seven HRs and 16 RBI). Keep an open mind here as his power has massive upside if he can avoid chasing bad pitches, plus his defense will be an asset.
Bench Options
Kevin Plawecki (C) signed in the offseason to take over the backup catching role. Over five seasons in the majors, he hit only .218 with 17 HRs and 92 RBI over 861 at-bats. He performed much better in the minors (.296 with 45 HRs and 268 RBI over 1,567 at-bats). Plawecki has no fantasy value without an injury to a starter occuring.
C.J. Chatham (SS) may develop into a utility option for the Red Sox later in 2020. Over four years in the minors, he hit. 298 with 14 HRs and 124 RBI over 1,024 at-bats with minimal experience at AAA (.302 over 86 at-bats with two HRs and 10 RBI). Chatham needs to get stronger to add more pop to his swing.
Marco Hernandez (IF) hasn’t done much in his three seasons in the majors (.265 with three HRs and 18 RBI over 257 at-bats), which points to a slim chance of making the major league roster in 2020. His bat lacks power, though he does have a dash of speed on his minor league resume (97 SBs over 2,650 at-bats). Hernandez handled AAA pitching (.290 with 11 HRs, 62 RBI, and eight SBs over 541 at-bats) over three seasons.
Update: Chris Sale will miss 2020 after having TJ surgery on March 30th.
Sale could be the most difficult player to evaluate in 2020 for fantasy owners. He’s coming off his worst season in the majors, but he did maintain a high strikeout rate (13.3) with only a slight step back in his walk rate (2.3). Batters drilled his mistakes over the fence (1.5 HR per nine – 0.9 over his first nine years in the majors), but they only hit .221 against him (.218 in his career). Sale allowed 23 of his 24 HRs vs. RH batters with regression against lefties (.247 BAA). His season started with 18 bad innings (8.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP). Over his next 12 starts, Sale went 3-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 124 Ks over 77.1 innings while allowing only seven home runs. He struggled in six of his final nine starts, leading to a 5.88 ERA and 12 HRs allowed over 52 innings. Even with failure, Sale did have 80 Ks with batters hitting only .243 against him. In August, he had a platelet-rich injection in his left elbow. Boston expects him back for spring training. His AFB (93.8) was below 2017 (95.1) and 2018 (95.57), but batters only hit .218 against his four-seam fastball. Sale lost the feel of his changeup (.279 BAA) compared to 2018 (.213). In early January, his ADP (40) is favorable. However, expect a lot of movement once he hits the mound in spring training. He could finish as a Cy Young winner or have his season cut short by Tommy John surgery. The range of outcomes is enormous. Easy to avoid if his elbow has any setbacks in March.
Rodriguez stayed healthy the whole season for the first time in his career in 2019, helping him to set career highs in wins (19), innings pitched (203.1), and strikeouts (213). Even with success, he still has plenty of work to do to be considered a top arm in the majors. He led the American League in walks (75) with a fantasy-killing WHIP (1.328). Batters hit .253 against him, which was above his previous three seasons (.241, .241, and .238) with Boston. Rodriguez had risk vs. LH hitters (.264 with nine HRs allowed over 163 at-bats). His attraction in 2020 will come from his stats over his final 18 starts (2.92 ERA and 116 Ks over 111 innings). He finished with an AFB (93.3) that ranked below each year with the Red Sox. Based on overall value in his pitches, Rodriguez was more attractive in 2018 (four-seam – .232, sinker – .239, changeup – .246, slider – .217, and cutter – .216) than last season (four-seam – .274, sinker – .205, changeup – .256, slider – .182, and cutter – .287). A big key to his progression last year came from a higher ground ball rate (48.5 – 38.7 in 2018) and fewer fly balls (32.5 percent – 41.2 in 2018). His success pushed him to SP2 in the 2020 draft season with an ADP of 131. Based on SIscore, Rodriguez ranked 24th in 2019, with wins being the driver of his value. A possible trap based on his walk rate (3.3), which dictates WHIP failure. Getting closer, but Rodriguez needs to shave off 15 walks while pitching the same number of innings. If he did, he would be tougher to hit, leading to more Ks. Next step: Sub 3.50 ERA with 225-plus Ks but needs to prove he can maintain a higher workload.
As a Red Sox fan, the signing of Eovaldi last year was an easy mistake to see. He lacked an impactful resume in the majors with his luster coming from success over one-third of the season and follow-through in the playoffs. Boston needed to use contract money to address the ninth inning. Eovaldi struggled in his first three starts (10 runs, 28 baserunners, and six home runs over 15 innings) while flashing on April 17th (no runs over six innings with six Ks). He then landed on the Injured List for three months with a right elbow injury that required surgery in late April. After 11 appearances in the bullpen (5.41 ERA with 18 Ks over 13.1 innings), the Red Sox pushed him back into the starting rotation. Over his final six games, Eovaldi posted a 5.08 ERA with seven HRs given up over 28.1 innings. His AFB (97.7) remains elite in velocity, but batters hit .295 against it. In 2018, he had shown growth due to an improved cutter (.243 BAA), which was a lost asset last season (.344 BAA). On the positive side from 2019, Eovaldi showed growth in his split-finger fastball (.191 BAA) and curveball (.200 BAA) while setting a career-high in his strikeout rate (9.3). Weakness in command (4.7 walks per nine) killed him, along with home runs allowed (2.1 per nine). There’s a better arm here if he can stay healthy and throw more strikes. Potential value on draft day. Think 3.75 ERA with 150 Ks while hoping for more upside.
Perez came into the majors with an arm that appeared to have upside, but the Rangers struggled to find the keys to unlock his potential. His final stats for Minnesota (10-7 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.518 WHIP) won’t draw much attention in 2020, but the Twins did get his engine started early in the year. Perez pitched the best ball of his career over his first 11 games (2.95 ERA over 58 innings with 56 Ks), but he also did walk too many batters (26 – 4.0 per nine). About the time when fantasy owners were pumping their chest about their find on the waiver wire, Perez reverted to his previous resume. Over his final 21 starts, he allowed two runs or fewer in seven games while posting plenty of negative stats (6.29 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 107.1 innings with 41 walk and 79 Ks). His strikeout rate (7.3) was a career-high, but he still doesn’t throw enough strikes (3.6 walks per nine). Perez had the best fastball (94.5) of his career, but batters hit .375 vs. his four-seamer and .295 against his sinker. His only pitch of value was his cutter (.218 BAA). Only an inning eater with tons of downside until he learns these three words – location, location, and location. At best, a one-week double starter if he’s pitching two games vs. the lightest hitting offenses in the majors.
With Boston struggling to find live arms in their bullpen in 2019, they pushed Hernandez to the majors after no success at both AA (5.13 ERA) and AAA (4.76). Over six seasons in the minors, he went 25-23 with a 3.50 ERA with 468 Ks over 409.1 innings. Hernandez had a high walk rate (5.5) at every level in the minors while showing K ability (10.3 per nine). As a reliever with the Red Sox, he showcased an impactful strikeout rate (16.9) with huge risk in command (7.7 walks per nine). Hernandez dominated lefties (four hits over 45 at-bats – 0.089 BAA) with 31 Ks, but he has plenty of work to do against RH batters (.319 BAA). His AFB (95.6) is elite with batters hitting .226 against it. Hernandez only has one other pitch (slider – .276 BAA) at this point in his career. Electric arm, but he looks miles away from meaningful innings in the majors.
Boston drafted Houck in the first round in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft with the 24th pick. Over three seasons in the minors, he went 15-20 with a 4.08 ERA and 243 Ks over 249 innings. His lack of progression is tied to his high walk rate (4.1). After a down year at AA in 2019 (8-6 with a 4.25 ERA and 80 Ks over 82.2 innings), the Red Sox shifted him to the bullpen at AAA. Houck flashed over a nine-game stretch in August (three runs over 14.1 innings with six walks and 20 Ks). Without growth in his command and a third pitch of value, Houck looks closer to pitching late in games than moving into the starting rotation for the Red Sox. He has a high 90s fastball with a slider and swing-and-miss upside. Houck will start the year at AAA.
Workman emerged as the top option for saves in Boston over the second half of the year. Even with poor command (5.7 walks per nine), batters struggled to make contact against him (.123 BAA). Over five seasons in the majors, Workman went 24-16 with a 3.74 ERA and 295 Ks over 281.1 innings. He finished with a career-high in his strikeout rate (13.1), which was well above his career resume (9.4). Workman dominated both RH (.116 BAA) and LH ( .132 BAA) batters. Over the second half of the year, he had a 2.01 ERA with 49 Ks over 31.1 innings. His AFB (93.3) was a career-high with batters hitting .134 against it. Both his curveball (.135 BAA) and cutter (.077 BAA) offered an edge. If a fantasy owner can dismiss his poor command, Workman has the stuff to get batters out. More of a setup man long term with Boston expected to look for a better option long for saves.
Barnes continues to battle greatness and mediocrity with a fading walk rate (5.3). Over his first 23 games, he posted a 1.99 ERA with 41 Ks over 22.2 innings with batters hitting .160 against him. Boston gave him the first save chance of the year, but he blew three of his six chances over this span. Barnes lost his way over 14 games in June (10.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over 12 innings with 21 Ks). He dominated in July (no runs over eight innings with 15 Ks). Regression came again over his next 15 games (5.02 ERA and 22 Ks over 14.1 innings). Barnes pitched well against lefties (.174 BAA), but he did issue 22 walks over 92 at-bats. He has a plus fastball (97.0) while offering an edge curveball (.183 BAA)., leading to a rising strikeout rate (15.4). Without growth in his command, Barnes can’t earn or keep a closing gig long-term.
After 12 seasons in the minors (46-49 with 3.88 ERA and 533 Ks over 824 innings), Walden finally made it to the majors for a full season in 2019 at age 30. He went 9-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 76 Ks over 78 innings. His strikeout rate (8.8) played well while needing work on his command (3.7 walks per nine). He pitched well vs. righties (.222 BAA) and lefties (.198 BAA). His arm had disaster downside in June (6.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP) and September (6.75 ERA and 2.036 WHIP). Walden had a live fastball (94.5 – .244 BAA) with success with his three other pitches (sinker – .233 BAA), slider – .203, and cutter – .198 BAA). Only a seventh-inning arm with a minimal resume to support a long-term career in the majors.
