Tampa Bay Rays
The game of baseball has changed in many ways in recent years, and the Rays are an active participant of a team who gains edges in very different ways. They’ve ranked in the top four in defensive shifts since 2016. Last year, Tampa Bay featured an opener pitcher in over 25 percent of their games, which led to a league-high in bullpen wins (56) and innings pitched (772.0).
Their success in pitching (3.65 ERA – 2nd) helped the Rays win 96 games and clinch their first playoff appearance since 2013. They’ve improved in each of the past three years. Tampa Bay finished 18th in runs (769), 21st in HRs (217), and 19th in RBI (730).
In the offseason, the Rays traded OF Tommy Pham to the Padres for OF Hunter Renfroe and 2B Xavier Edwards. They signed Japanese import OF Yoshi Tsutsugo to a two-year contract. Tampa moved on from 1B Jesus Aguilar and IF Matt Duffy. They also made a late deal to acquire OF Jose Martinez. In early February, the Rays shipped expected closer Emilio Pagan to San Diego for OF Manuel Margot and C Logan Driscoll.
Tampa’s 2020 success is largely contingent on healthy seasons from their top two arms – Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow – and better definitions in the structure of their bullpen roles. Tampa has two upside arms (Brendan McKay and Brent Honeywell) on the verge of making an impact with other options developing in the lower levels of the minors.
Seven of Tampa Bay’s top hitters expected to start in 2020 came via trade or signed as a free agent. Austin Meadows has the feeling of a stuck, while the rest of their offense lacks an impactful upside.
Over four seasons in the minors, Lowe hit .279 with 38 HRs, 178 RBI, and 21 SBs over 1,186 at-bats. His time in the minors was highlighted by his success at AA and AAA in 2018 (.297 with 22 HRs, 76 RBI, and eight SBs over 380 at-bats). Lowe showed the ability to take a walk (12.1 percent) while his strikeout rate (19.8) came in better than the league average (21.5). In about a half of a season of action with Tampa, Lowe flashed power (17 HRs) while showing he can provide an edge in runs (42) and RBI (51) when considering his 296 at-bats. Both his CTBA (.437) and average hit rate (1.900) plays well for his position, but he did struggle to make contact in the majors (34.6 percent strikeout rate), just as he struggled to remain patient at the plate (7.7 percent walk rate). Lowe played much better vs. righties (.278 with 14 HRs and 14 RBI over 230 at-bats), pointing to platoon downside based on his play against left-handed pitching (.242 with three HRs and nine RBI with 36 Ks over 66 at-bats). A quad injury cost him most of the final three months of the year. Lowe flashed a high HR/FB rate (21.8) with plenty of loft on his swing (42.9 percent). In the early draft season, he has an ADP of 194 as the 18th second basemen off the board. I can’t trust Tampa to play him every day, but his ability to make contact should rebound. A borderline stud in power with a range in at-bats between 450 and 600. If he locks up a top-of-the-order opportunity, think .275 with 70/25/75/5 as his floor.
The Rays desperately need someone to step up to hit first or second in the batting order. Adames isn’t quite ready to make a move to this type of situation based on his weak RBI rate (10) and a high strikeout rate (26.2). Over his first 907 plate appearances in the majors, his walk rate (8.5) falls into a neutral area. Adames had a tough time vs. lefties last season (.181 with eight HRs and 15 RBI over 182 at-bats). He played better over the final two months (.289 with seven HRs and 20 RBI over 166 at-bats). His contact batting average (.357) came in lower than expected with growth in his average hit rate (1.644). Adames does hit a low number of fly balls (30.3 percent) while holding value in his HR/FB rate (17.5). In 2019, he played the best when hitting ninth in the batting order (.329 with 11 HRs and 27 RBI over 161 at-bats). Breakout player if he indeed hits higher in the batting order. An outside chance at a 90/20/70/10 season.
For the fantasy owners looking for a leadoff hitter with a chance at 30 steals in 2019, they were rewarded with a great season from Meadows based on his draft value. He finished with only 12 steals while posting a breakthrough year in power (33 HRs and 89 RBI). Meadows delivered a middle-of-the-order RBI rate (18) with strength in both his AVH (1.922) and CTBA (.386). Those were both career-high numbers. Meadows was a career .294 hitter in the minors with 46 HRs, 229 RBI, and 66 SBs over 1,761 at-bats. He had a better approach at the plate in the minors (strikeout rate – 16.3 and walk rate – 8.6) than he did in 2019 (strikeout rate – 22.2 and walk rate – 9.1). His bat had two great runs (first 47 games – .346 with 12 HRs, 38 RBI, and eight SBs over 182 at-bats and final 54 games – .297 with 18 HRs, 42 RBI, and three SBs over 212 at-bats), but he lost his way in the middle of the season (.204 with three HRs and eight RBI over 137 at-bats). His success in 2019 pushes Meadows to the 11th OF being taken off the board. He has an ADP of 36 despite finishing 31st in SIscore rankings. He played well enough vs. lefties (.275 with nine HRs and 32 RBI over 167 at-bats) to be in the lineup every day. Tempting for sure, but he does have some injury history, and Tampa doesn’t have an elite supporting cast. Expect a .300 hitter with a high floor (90/30/90/15) and more upside if he has follow-through.
Tsutsugo should be an excellent fit in the Rays’ starting lineup after hitting 22 home runs or more in each of his previous seven seasons in Japan. His highlight year came in 2016 (.322 with 44 HRs and 110 RBI over 469 at-bats). Over a decade-long career in Japan, which spanned 3,460 at-bats, he hit .284 with 205 HRs and 615 RBI. Tsutsugo has a high walk rate (13.2) with a league average strikeout rate (20.8). He has an early, hip-clearing swing that allows him to pull the ball for power while keeping his hands back. This approach helps when asked to turn quickly on fastballs inside. Tsutsugo can also deliver home runs the opposite way. Fantasy owners priced him with an ADP of 344 in early January. Pretty much a neutral hitter with a chance at 90 runs, 30 HRs, and 90 RBI so long as he bats in the middle of the order as expected.
Choi gave Tampa good at-bats vs. right-handed pitching (.274 with 17 HRs and 57 RBI over 329 at-bats). He’ll have a minimal chance against lefties (.210 with two HRs and six RBI over 81 at-bats). His strikeout rate (22.2) is just over the league average with strength in his walk rate (13.1). Choi spent most of the previous six seasons at AAA, where he hit .291 over 1,018 at-bats with 35 HRs, 189 RBI, and 10 SBs. He has still never recorded over 425 at-bats at any level. Choi’s AVH rate (1.757) improved over his last two years in the majors, but Choi finished with fade in his CTBA (.354). At best, 450 at-bats with 60 runs, 20 HRs, and 70 RBI.
Renfroe has been a good source of power (85 HRs) over the last three seasons, while never receiving over 450 at-bats. After a progression in his strikeout rate (24.7) in 2018, he struggled to make contact in 2019 (strikeout rate – 31.2). His walk rate (9.3) improved. Renfroe was on track for an impactful season before the All-Star break (.252 with 27 HRs and 49 RBI over 266 at-bats). After two bad months (.194 over seven HRs and 17 RBI over 165 at-bats), the Padres pushed him to the bench in September (4-for-37 with two HRs, two RBI, and 17 Ks). His swing was slightly better against lefties (.229 with 11 HRs and 19 RBI over 113 at-bats). Renfroe hits plenty of fly balls (47.9 percent) and has an improving HR/FB rate (23.6). A streaky player who will be in the lineup on most nights against left-handed pitching while offering matchup value when playing well against righties. He has 40-plus home run upside if he ever reaches the 550 at-bat mark. Renfroe needs to clean up the strikeouts and make better contact to help his batting average.
Diaz is a career .311 hitter in the minors with 26 HRs, 224 RBI, and 25 SBs over 1,879 at-bats. He’s handled himself at AAA (.319 with 15 HRs, 118 RBI, and eight SBs over 1,036 at-bats) over the last four seasons. He hit well in the majors last season (.267 with 14 HRs and 38 RBI over 307 at-bats) with a spike in his average hit rate (1.780). Diaz has a strong enough approach (strikeout rate – 17.6 and walk rate – 10.1) to compete for the second slot in the batting order. He played the best against left-handed pitching (.311 with seven HRs and 16 RBI over 103 at-bats). His overall stats were skewed by a hot April (.298 with seven HRs and 18 RBI over 94 at-bats). A left foot injury led to his season ending after the All-Star break. More of a bench option until he earns a long-term starting job. I trust his batting average while needing to see follow-through in power before placing a high bet.
At times, Zunino can work as a backend power hitter if a fantasy owner has the right team structure to handle his batting average risk. He missed some time due to a quad issue in 2019. His struggles come from a massive strikeout rate (33.9), which remains in line with his career resume (34.2). In 2017, his CTBA (.427) pointed to an improved skill set. However, Zunino only hit .262 when making contact in 2019. He has a fly-ball swing (45.8) with a massive drop in his HR/FB rate (11.7). Tampa saw enough in his game to sign him to a one-year, $4.5 million deal. Only a gamble as a second catcher in deep leagues. If he is able to find the light, he has an incredible power swing.
Over the last two seasons, Kiermaier posted a dismal contact batting average (.299 and .297), which kills any thought of an uptick in batting average. His strikeout rate (21.7) moved closer to the league average (21.5). He’ll never hit higher in the batting order when adding in his fading walk rate (5.4). Surprisingly, Kiermaier played better against lefties (.311 with three HRs and 17 RBI over 122 at-bats) than righties (.197 with 11 HRs, 38 RBI, and 14 SBs over 325 at-bats). The veteran played better before the All-Star break (.252 with ten HRs, 41 RBI, and 17 SBs over 282 at-bats), which suggested an impactful year. His downturn over the second half of the year came from a sprained left thumb, followed by rib and neck issues. Kiermaier drove home the bus with a measly .188 BAA with four HRs and 14 RBI over 165 at-bats. He continues to have a low fly-ball rate (29.2) with progression in his HR/FB rate (14.0). Only a bottom-of-the-order hitter with plenty of injuries on his major league resume. At best, a low-level OF5 with a chance to provide an edge in one category (steals).
Lowe held his own in his first stint in the majors (.263 with seven HRs and 19 RBI over 152 at-bats) except for his high strikeout rate (29.6). In 2018, he made a push from High A to AAA after hitting .330 with 27 HRs and 102 RBI over 482 at-bats. Lowe showcased a major league ready approach (strikeout rate -16.2 and walk rate – 12.3) while handling AAA in 2019 (.289 with 16 HRs and 63 RBI 329 at-bats). He took more walks (17.7 percent) with some regression in his strikeout rate (20.2). Over the past two seasons, Lowe flashed strength in his HR/FB rate (18.9 and 19.0). The combination of his AVH rate (1.728) and CTBA (.392) point to a hitter who can blast 30 homers and provide an edge with a high batting average. This season, he’ll be drafted as a backend corner infielder in deep leagues with an ADP of 282. Possible target on draft day if a hot spring doesn’t remove the profit from his price point. I expect him to win the job at first base for the Rays early in the year.
After showing progress in 2018 with Tampa (.300 with seven HRs, 61 RBI, and 16 SBs over 487 at-bats), Wendle came up empty last year in an injury-plagued season. Four games into the year, he suffered a hamstring injury followed by a broken right wrist on April 24th. After returning in mid-June, Wendle didn’t hit a home run over 119 at-bats while batting .218 with only eight RBI. His wrist injury flared up again in late July, costing him another four weeks. Over the final five weeks of the season, he hit .268 with three HRs, nine RBI, and four SBs over 97 at-bats. The Rays should use him as the utility player in 2020 with platoon upside versus righties. He is a possible 15/15 player if he earns a full-time job.
In his third season in the majors, Margot stayed healthy, but he failed to repeat his previous opportunity in at-bats (398 – 477 in 2018 and 487 in 2017). Both his batting average (.234) and CTBA (.300) have declined in each year with the Padres. He had some improvement in his walk rate (8.6) last year with a tick back in his strikeout rate (20.0 – 18.9 in his career). Margot struggled versus right-handed pitching (.200 with ten HRs and 30 RBI over 295 at-bats) while offering platoon value against lefties (.330 with two HRs and seven RBI over 103 at-bats). His bat had a flash of power in August (five HRs, 11 RBI, and four SBs over 86 at-bats), but he hit under .255 in every month of the season. His hard-hit rate (35.1) slipped to 174th in baseball. Margot set a career-high in his HR/FB rate (9.8) while adding more loft to his swing (fly-ball rate – 40.3 – 37.1 in his career). In his career in the majors, Margot only hit .236 over 996 at-bats against righties, which suggest a platoon role with the Rays. His ADP (505) puts him in the free-agent pool in almost every fantasy format. He had a bump in his average hit rate (1.656), giving him a chance at 15 home runs with a full-season of at-bats. An attractive skill set if he hits the ball harder and works his way into a starting job. Bet on the come type option with an upside of .280 with 15 home runs and 30 steals with 550 at-bats. Invest with the idea of 400 at-bats with the hopes his bat increases his playing time.
The Rays acquired Martinez in early January in a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. He’ll work as a rotational player at 1B, OF, and DH. After a breakout year in 2018 (.305 with 17 HRs and 83 RBI over 534 at-bats), he took a step back last season and missed time late in the year with a right shoulder injury. Martinez saw regression in his CTBA (.357) with a slight bump in his AVH (1.522). His strikeout rate (22.0) went down while he saw a slight bump in his walk rate (9.4). He played well against lefties (.329 with five home runs and 15 RBI over 70 at-bats) with a reasonable start over the first three months (.285 with 31 runs, eight HRs, and 31 RBI over 242 at-bats). Martinez has a rising ground ball rate (49.8) with minimal fly balls (26.1 percent in 2019 and 28.0 in his career). Expect a viable batting average with minimal upside in power, but his lack of defense can get hidden in the American League. Possible 450 at-bats.
Other Options
Michael Perez (C) should win the backup catching job in Tampa again in 2020. Over nine seasons in the minors, he hit .247 with 61 HRs and 328 RBI over 2,168 at-bats while showing growth at AAA (.270 with 20 HRs and 77 RBI over 411 at-bats). In limited at-bats in the majors, Perez hit .258 with one HR and 13 RBI over 120 at-bats with risk in his strikeout rate (28.2). If Mike Zunino strikes his way out of the starting lineup, Perez may work his way into a platoon role against right-handed pitching.
Daniel Robertson (3B) handled himself well over 282 at-bats in the majors in 2018 (.262 with 46 runs, nine HRs, 34 RBI, and two SBs). He also owned a top-of-the-order walk rate (12.1). His bat was exposed last season (.213 with two HRs and 19 RBI over 207 at-bats) with Tampa due to a high strikeout rate (24.9). Over eight seasons in the minors, Robertson hit .280 with 42 HRs, 235 RBI, and 14 SBs over 2,054 at-bats. His approach and upside in power should earn him a utility role in 2020 with more upside if he makes better contact.
Mike Brosseau (2B) had his first chance in the majors (.273 with six HRs and 16 RBI over 132 at-bats) in 2019 after flashing at AAA (.304 with 16 HRs and 60 RBI over 270 at-bats). Batting average has been an asset in the minors (.297 in his career), but he only hit seven long balls over his first 484 at-bats at rookie ball and two levels of A ball. His strikeout rate (27.5) was a weakness with the Rays while taking a low number of walks (4.9 percent). Brosseau showed much more upside in both areas in the minors (strikeout rate – 16.5 and walk rate – 8.4). Last season, he produced a high fly-ball rate (43.0), which came at the expense of his line drive rate (17.2 – 25.4 at AAA in 2019). In the mix to win the third base job with a chance at 20-plus home runs and a .280-plus batting average.
Brian O’Grady (OF) earned his first shot in the majors in 2019 with the Reds. He hit .190 with two HRs and three RBI over 42 at-bats while striking out 17 times (35.4 percent). O’Grady had his best season at AAA (.280 with 28 HRs, 77 RBI, and 20 SBs over 429 at-bats). Over six seasons in the minors, he batted .252 with 76 HR, 299 RBI, and 85 SBs over 1,921 at-bats. Balanced skill set with growth in his game in 2018 and 2019.
Many fantasy owners were burned if they drafted Snell in 2019 as their ace. His arm was electric and elite in 2018 thanks to his win total (21), ERA (1.89), and Ks (211). Snell battled greatness and disaster over his first 13 starts last season (3.50 ERA and 98 Ks over 72 innings). Over this stretch, he allowed 18 of his 28 runs in three starts (13.1 innings). Snell crushed fantasy teams over his next three starts (16 runs and 27 baserunners over seven innings) when batters hit .486 against him with nine walks. Somehow he found his 2018 stride over his next four games (1.64 ERA and 31 Ks over 22 innings).
Tampa placed him on the injured list for two months after surgery on his left elbow to remove some debris. Snell made six appearances in late September and the playoffs (3.18 ERA and 1.235 WHIP with 18 Ks over 11.1 innings). His strikeout rate (12.4) improved from his great season (2018 – 11.0), however, he had regression in both his walk rate (3.4 – 3.2 in 2018) and his HR/9 rate (1.2 – 0.8 in 2018). Snell had a strong fastball (95.9), but his best success last year came via the changeup (.222 BAA) and curveball (.148 BAA).
In 2020, Snell has an ADP of 37 in early January. Hidden in his down year was a huge step forward in his first-pitch strike rate (67.6) and the second year of progression in his overall strike rate (64.1). A great arm, but he can’t match proven aces in volume of innings. I fully expect a sub 2.50 ERA with 15 wins and 225-plus strikeouts.
It took Glasnow multiple years to figure out how to get major league batters out. He dominated over seven years in the minors (45-21 with a 2.01 ERA and 788 Ks over 595.2 innings) with no problems at AAA (19-6 with a 1.93 ERA and 324 Ks over 27.1 innings). From 2016 to 2018 over 67 games in the majors, Glasnow went 4-16 with 216 Ks over 197 innings. His failure came from a massive walk rate (5.0) and risk in home runs allowed (1.4 per nine).
In 2019, he figured out how to throw more strikes (walk rate – 2.1), but his first-pitch rate (57.8) remains a liability. Glasnow did throw the most overall strikes (64.9 percent) of his major league career. Over his first seven starts, he went 6-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 46 Ks over 43 innings with only seven walks. After a poor start on May 10th (three runs and seven baserunners over 5.1 innings with nine Ks), Tampa lost him for four months with a right forearm issue. In four games in September, Glasnow had a 1.46 ERA over 12.1 innings with five walks and 21 Ks, but he did struggle in the playoffs (six runs and 12 baserunners over seven innings with eight Ks). His average fast ball (97.6) is special and was tough to hit in 2019 (.200 BAA). Both his curveball (.198 BAA) and changeup (.125 BAA) were strong.
Glasnow is gaining momentum and he has a reasonable price on draft day (ADP – 61). If his arm issue doesn’t develop into an elbow injury, he could be a steal. Fantasy owners can never predict when a player gets hurt, so bet on his success in 2019. His upside should equate to 250-plus Ks with an edge in wins and ERA.
The fact-or-fiction season for Morton in 2018 ended up being just a precursor to another level. He set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings pitched (194.2), and Ks (240). Morton threw the most strikes of his career (walk rate – 2.6) and continued to improve his strikeout rate (11.1). Over his first 20 starts, he went 11-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 148 Ks over 118.2 innings. Morton started to wear down over his next eight starts (5.05 ERA and 53 Ks over 46.1 innings), but he rebounded with a strong September (3-0 with 2.73 ERA and 39 Ks over 29.2 innings) with follow-through in the playoffs (two runs over ten innings with 13 Ks). His stuff played well against both righties (.202 BAA) and lefties (.227 BAA). His average fast ball (95.1) took a slight step back (96.7 in 2018) with batters hitting .219 against his four-seamer. Morton dominated with his curveball (.150 BAA) and succeeded with a low-volume slider (.227 BAA). In 2020, he can be had as a SP2 (ADP – 67) as the 19th starter off the board. Based on pure stats in 2018 and 2019, he’ll be tough to fade. My question comes down to the jump in innings pitched. I’ll take the side that he doesn’t repeat even with growth in his arm.
Over his previous four seasons between the minors and the majors, Yarbrough posted a 52-22 record that screams winning arm. In two years with Tampa, he has a 27-12 record with a 4.02 ERA and 245 Ks over 289 innings. Yarbrough has been rewarded with win chances by pitching after an opener after many games in the majors. His season started with a poor April (8.10 ERA) due to a disaster start on April 24th (seven runs and 10 baserunners over 4.1 innings with two Ks), which led a trip back to AAA. Over his next five games back with the Rays, Yarbrough produced waiver wire stats (4.26 ERA) despite strength in his WHIP (0.947). From June 18th to August 28th, he went 6-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 64 Ks over 67 innings, but Yarbrough lost his way in September (7.52 ERA). His walk rate (1.3) moved to an elite area with no progress in his strikeout rate (7.4). He had almost the same success against righties (.228 BAA) as lefties (.231 BAA) with a slow fastball (88.5 MPH). All three of his secondary pitches graded well (changeup – .220 BAA, slider – .094 BAA, and cutter – .224 BAA). His next step is adding more strikeouts (8.8 in the minors). He is not a lock to start all year for Tampa, but he will give fantasy owners some good innings with an occasional clunker.
Chirinos made the progression to the majors over the last two seasons, with his only real issue being a spike in his HR/9 rate (1.6) and HR/FB rate (18.1) in 2019. He went 14-10 with a 3.71 ERA and 189 Ks over 223 innings. His best asset is his command (walk rate – 2.1), while his strikeout rate (7.7) barely has a pulse. Over 23 games to start the year, Chirinos had only two disaster outings (13 runs and 20 baserunners over 6.1 innings). He landed on the injured list in early August for six weeks with a finger injury on his pitching hand. Chirinos does have risk versus righties (.255 with 16 HRs over 271 at-bats) while dominating left-handed batters (.189 with 56 Ks over 227 at-bats). His AFB (94.7 – sinker) is above the league average with two plus secondary pitches (slider – .204 BAA and split-finger fastball – 1.38 BAA). Viable starting option, but his success against left-handed batters may push him to the bullpen due to Tampa Bay’s plethora of starting options. Priced favorably in drafts (ADP – 285) if he does earn a full-time starting job. I sense more upside in strikeouts. Sub 3.50 ERA with help in WHIP.
Over four seasons in the minors, Honeywell went 31-19 with a 2.88 ERA and 458 Ks in 416.0 innings. His command is excellent (2.0 walk rate) with an improving strikeout rate (9.9 in his career – 11.3 in 2017). Brent should have been in the majors in 2018 after making 24 starts at AAA (12-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 152 Ks over 123.2 innings), but he missed the previous two seasons with a right elbow injury (Tommy John surgery) and a setback in 2019 that required a second surgery last June. The Rays selected him in the second round of the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft. Honeywell has excellent command of his two and four-seam fastballs, which ranges from the mid to upper 90s. His changeup has a chance to be a plus pitch. His best pitch is a screwball, while his curveball is still a work in progress. Player to follow this spring, but he’ll need some time at AAA to regain his previous form.
After drafting McKay with the fourth overall pick in the 2017 June Amateur Draft, he blistered his way through AA and AAA (6-0 with 1.10 ERA and 102 Ks over 73.2 innings). Unfortunately, his arm didn’t play as well once he reached the majors (5.14 ERA). McKay had strength in his strikeout rate (10.3) and walk rate (2.9) in Tampa, but he was easier to hit (.268 BAA) with too many home runs allowed (1.5 per nine). His average fastball came in at 94.0 in the majors while featuring a curveball (.294 BAA), cutter (.258 BAA), and changeup (.167 BAA). McKay was a two-way player in the minors, but his bat (.214 with 15 HRs and 80 RBI over 462 at-bats) is trailing his arm (12-2 with a 1.78 ERA and 226 Ks over 172 innings). Breakout type arm, but Tampa won’t push him much past 160 innings in 2020. Right kind of target based on his ADP (263). Possible sub 3.00 ERA with 175 Ks with 150 innings pitched in the majors.
Anderson was a late-bloomer who worked his way through the minors as a semi-closer. His climb to the big leagues came in 2015 in the Independent League (0.65 ERA and 35 Ks over 27.2 innings). Over four seasons in the minors, he posted a 2.25 ERA and 232 Ks over 183.2 innings while converting 32 saves. After pitching well in April for Miami (2.08 ERA with two walks and 27 Ks over 13 innings), Anderson battled some confidence issues over his next 27 games (5.68 ERA). Tampa saw enough in his arm to make a move for him at the trade deadline in late July. After the All-Star break, his stuff looked closer-worthy (1.69 ERA and 51 Ks over 26.2 innings). Anderson had more of an advantage against righties (.183 BAA) than lefties (.250 BAA). His AFB (96.4) plays well in velocity, but batters did hit .265 against it (.224 after the All-Star break). He gets betters out with a plus slider (.137 BAA). His ADP (209) has him priced as a closing option for fantasy teams. Lots to like here and Tampa cleared the 9th inning for him to close in 2020 if Anderson can handle the job. Possible 40-plus saves with over 100 strikeouts.
Last year Castillo appeared to be the sexy closing arm late in drafts for the Rays. His season started with no runs over ten innings with ten Ks and two saves. Over the next two months, he had too much disaster (5.55 ERA) to be trusted in the 9th innings due to walks (13) and home runs allowed (five) over 24.1 innings, despite converting five of his six saves. After three weeks on the injured list with a right shoulder issue, Tampa changed his role. Castillo finished the year with a 2.88 ERA and 43 Ks over 34.1 innings while making six starts (opener) and finishing four games. He had risk vs. lefties (.271 BAA) while maintaining an electric fastball (98.7 MPH – .235 BAA). His sinker (.324 BAA) ended up being a liability, whereas his slider (.167 BAA) worked as his best pitch. Live arm with upside once he develops better location with his fastball.
Alvarado came into 2018 with a chance to close after pitching well in 2017 with Tampa (3.64 ERA over 29.2 innings with 29 Ks). Over his first 19 games (2.16 ERA, .161 BAA, and 17 Ks over 16.2 innings), he looked position to get a chance at saves. A tough eighth game stretch (5.02 ERA and 14 Ks over 10.2 innings) pushed him down a notch in the Rays’ bullpen. Over the next 40 games, he shined in the late innings (1.06 ERA, .150 BAA, and 43 Ks over 34 innings), leading seven saves in eight chances plus 19 holds. His walk rate (4.1) regressed while adding more strikeouts (11.3 per nine). In 2019, Tampa gave him the first two save tries (converted both) while picking up four saves in his first six games. After 18 games into the season, he had a 1.04 ERA and 26 Ks over 17.1 innings, but he didn’t receive another save chance over five weeks of action. Alvarado lost his way over the second half of May (10.80 ERA), which led to four weeks on the injured list with a personal issue. After another poor four games (18.90 ERA), he landed back on the IL with an oblique injury. A disaster walk rate (8.1) was his demise, but he did maintain an elite fastball (98.2 MPH). His failure came from losing the feel for his sinker (.323 BAA – .233 in 2018). The pitching rules (must face a minimum of three batters) should help him earn some saves, but Alvarado is nothing more than a bullpen flier until he regains his command.
