St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have been one of the better franchises over the last 20 seasons. They have 13 postseasons appearances over this span with a pair of World Series titles (2006 and 2011). They ended their three-year absence from the playoffs in 2019 with a loss in the National League Championship Series. St. Louis has a winning record over each of the last 12 years. Over the 138 years of baseball, the Cardinals have nine other World Series titles (1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, and 1982) with 33 total trips to the postseason.
St. Louis didn’t make any changes to their major league offensive roster in the offseason. They traded OF Jose Martinez to Tampa for P Matt Liberatore. The Cardinals signed SP Kwang-Hyun Kim, who played last year in Korea.
They finished fourth in ERA (3.80) with 52 saves. St. Louis ranked 21st in runs (764), 24th in home runs (210), and 21st in RBI (714).
The structure of their offense has more question marks that impact bats. At best, St. Louis is league average in runs with weakness in his power compared to the rest of baseball. The bullpen improved last year thanks to a couple of developing arms. The closer role looks to be in flux. The Cardinals have one real ace in Jack Flaherty while no other arm stands out.
A postseason trip would be a lot to ask, but somehow St. Louis will be in the hunt for the division title in September.
Edman showed growth in his game at AAA in 2019 (.305 over 197 at-bats with seven HRs, 29 RBI, and nine SBs). His success led to a call up to the majors where his bat had further follow-through (.304 with 11 HRs, 36 RBI, and 15 SBs over 326 at-bats). On the year, he finished with 88 runs, 18 home runs, 65 RBI, and 24 stolen bases over 523 at-bats. His walk rate (4.6) came in short with St. Louis with more success in the minors (9.0). Edman has a favorable strikeout rate (17.5) with more strength in the minors (13.8). His AVH (1.646) and CTBA (.374) were the highest of his career with St. Louis. Even with a bump in power in 2019, Edman did have a low hard-hard hit rate (32.8 – 322nd). His HR/FB rate (12.1) was well above his minor league career before 2019. He has an ADP of 146 in early February. Tempting bet on his 2019 combined stats. I trust his value in speed more than power while fully expecting a push toward the top of the batting order. My starting point is .285 with 100 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBI, and 20 steals with 550 at-bats. Over his four seasons in the minors, Edman hit .286 with 235 runs, 23 home runs, 158 RBI, and 71 steals over 1,414 at-bats.
Wong had a resurgence in his game last year after playing himself into a part-time option over the previous three seasons. His average hit rate (1.485) remained flat even with a rebound in home runs (11). Over the past four years, he’s beat his career average (7.5) in his walk rate (8.6). Wong saw a slight regression in his strikeout rate (15.1) for the third season in a row while continuing to be favorable. His best value came in April (.272 with four HRs, 15 RBI, and five SBs over 92 at-bats). After the All-Star break, he hit .342 with 27 runs, four home runs, 24 RBI, and ten steals over 199 at-bats while failing to get every day playing time in any month. Just like Tommy Edman, his hard-hit rate (25.1) suggests no follow-through or upside in power. He did have a bump in his fly-ball rate (35.6 – 31.2 in 2018) with a fading HR/FB rate (8.1). Wong finished 72nd batter in SIscore (0.55) while being drafted as the 134th hitter in 2020 with an ADP of 225. With a higher slot in the batting order and 550 at-bats, Wong should be more attractive. The problem here is that Edman looks to be the better option at second base, and the Cardinals may find a stronger outfield option at some point in 2020. A chance at a 10/30 season with a negative value in runs and RBI. I’m trending to the under on his overall projections.
The juice in Goldschmidt’s game left the building in 2017. Over the past two years, he hit .275 with 192 runs, 67 home runs, 180 RBI, and ten stolen bases over 1,190 at-bats while underperforming his draft slot. His walk rate (11.4) is losing steam after peaking at 17 percent in 2015 while also seeing a rise in his strikeout rate (24.3). Goldschmidt has over 30 home runs in each of his previous three seasons, with a slight regression in his AVH (1.832). He had a significant drop in his CTBA (.360) after being .400 in each of the past four years. His failure in production came in May and June (.238 with 24 runs, five HRs, and 12 RBI), which led to a correction in July (.308 with 20 runs, 11 HRs, and 27 RBI over 91 at-bats) and September (.269 with 15 runs, five HRs, and 24 RBI over 93 at-bats). Goldschmidt had plenty of production against lefties (.269 with 24 runs, nine HRs, and 24 RBI over 104 at-bats). His hard-hit rate (42.4) slipped to 101st after ranking 43rd in 2018 (44.0) and 10th in 2017 (47.3). He had the second straight season of regression in his HR/FB rate (19.9) while setting a career-high in his fly-ball rate (39.4 – 34.8 in his career). Goldschmidt has the look of a player trading batting average for power while falling to be helped with livelier baseball. This season his ADP (71) pushes him to a third or fourth hitter on a fantasy roster depending on team structure. Not that far off except for the lost speed. Buy the 100/30/100 foundation bat with the hopes of a rebound in batting average.
Carpenter lost his approach in 2019, along with his confidence and power. His strikeout rate (26.2) was a career-high with fade in each of the previous three seasons. He still had a high walk rate (12.8), which was much higher in 2017 (17.5) and 2018 (15.1). Carpenter had two stints on the injured list in July for back and foot injuries. After a slow start in April (.202 with 18 runs, three HRs, and three RBI over 104 at-bats), he appeared to make progress in May (.237 with 16 runs, five HRs, and 14 RBI over 97 at-bats). The Cardinals lost faith in him over his final 215 at-bats (.233 with seven HRs and 27 RBI) while striking out 28.2 percent of the time. Carpenter struggled to drive the ball against lefties (.217 with two HRs and seven RBI over 83 at-bats). His hard-hit rate (37.0) fell to 209th place compared to 36th in 2018 (44.7). He continues to have a fly-ball swing (43.1 percent) while his HR/FB rate (12.1) fell to his range in 2017 (13.3) and 2018 (12.2). His back was also an issue coming out of spring training. I don’t view him as clean up type bat, but his power may work better behind Paul Goldschmidt. Viable cheat at third base with an ADP of 408. His AVH (1.734) should give him a floor of 25 home runs with a full season of at-bats. The Cardinals own him $55.5 million over the next three seasons, which means he’ll have every chance to regain his form in 2020. Think .260 with an 80/25/75/5 skill set.
With the most at-bats (583) of his career, DeJong set career-highs in runs (97), home runs (30), RBI (78), and steals (9). His average hit rate (1.904) continues to support 30-plus home run power, but his CTBA (.313) fell well below his minor league resume (.384). Both his strikeout rate (22.4) and walk rate (9.3) were the best of his career with improvement in each year in the league. DeJong hit 27 of his 30 home runs off right-handed pitching. His season started with success in April (.342 with 26 runs, five HRs, and 13 RBI over 117 at-bats). Over the final five months, he hit .206 with 71 runs, 25 home runs, and 65 RBI. His RBI rate (13) doesn’t project as a middle of the order bat at this point in his career. DeJong finished 86th in hard-hit rate (40.3) while still offering a fly-ball swing (44.3 percent). He has an improving HR/FB rate (15.4). An interesting player with a favorable ADP (206). Most will view him as a low average power hitter, but I expect a significant rebound in this area in 2020. I’m going to set the bar at .270 with 80/30/85 while his speed isn’t a fluke.
After two good seasons at age 35 and 36, Molina lost his power swing in 2019. His AVH (1.478) slipped to a three-year low while continuing to have strength in his RBI rate (17). He has a fading walk rate (5.1) while still being tough to strikeout (12.8 percent). Molina had more success against righties (.320 with two HRs and 11 RBI over 75 at-bats). In April and May, he hit .265 with 18 runs, four HRs, and 33 RBI over 189 at-bats. After an empty June (.266 with no home runs and two RBI over 64 at-bats), he struggled with a right thumb injury that led to an IL stint in June and a second trip for most of July. Over his final 158 at-bats, Molina hit .285 with 21 runs, six home runs, and 21 RBI. His HR/FB rate (8.1) below his previous two seasons (11.0 and 13.6). A neutral hitter with a chance at a 50/15/60 season. His ADP (234) makes him a C2 in most formats.
O’Neill hit .271 in his 2,138 at-bats in the minors with 140 HRs, 430 RBI, and 55 steals. He hit 24 HRs or more over four different seasons at High A, AA, and AAA. His strikeout rate (28.1) in the minors does invite batting average risk while owning an above average walk rate (9.1). With three seasons under his belt at AAA (.267 with 68 HRs, 184 RBI, and 20 SBs), O’Neill is close to earning starting at-bats in the majors once he controls the strikeout rate (37.5) with St. Louis. Over two seasons with the Cardinals, he hit .258 with 47 runs, 14 home runs, 39 RBI, and three stolen bases over 271 at-bats. Last year played well in St. Louis in July (.301 with four HRs and 12 RBI over 83 at-bats) before landing on the injured list with a left wrist injury. Both his CTBA and AVH graded well in 2018 and 2019 in the minors. His HR/FB rate consistently came in over 20 percent in the minors. A low-average power hitter with batting average risk out of the gate if he wins a starting job in the majors.
Bader struggled to make contact in April (.224 with three HRs, nine RBI, and 20 Ks over 49 at-bats) while spending ten days on the injured list with a hamstring injury. His bat was worthless over the next three months (.186 with 23 runs, three HRs, ten RBI, and six SBs over 172 at-bats). The Cardinals shipped him back to AAA for three weeks, where he had a rebound in confidence (.317 with seven HRs, 15 RBI, and three SBs over 63 at-bats). Over his final 126 at-bats in the majors, Bader hit .222 with 23 runs, six home runs, 20 RBI, and five stolen bases. He finished with risk in his strikeout rate (28.8) and growth in his walk rate (11.3). Bader hit .284 with 207 runs, 57 home runs, 160 RBI, and 48 stolen bases over 1,194 at-bats in his four seasons in the minors with a lower strikeout rate (23.4). With St. Louis, he struggled against lefties (.177 with HRs and ten RBI over 96 at-bats). His hard-hit rate (30.0) ranked 201st. Bader tried to add more loft to his swing in 2019 (fly-ball rate – 44.2) with a steady HR/FB rate (12.1). He should be a better player than he showed in 2019 while not having full-time at-bats out of the gate. His upside is a 20/20 type player, but Bader needs a rebound in his CTBA (.309) and better contact to stabilize his batting average. He has an ADP of 449 in the early draft season. Sneak backend outfield option in deep leagues.
Over eight seasons in the minors, he hit .267 with 45 home runs, 243 RBI, and 59 steals over 1,888 at-bats. He played well in his three years at AAA (.287 with 11 HRs, 57 RBI, and 11 SBs over 363 at-bats). His strikeouts rate (16.6) was favorable in the minors with a low walk rate (5.3). Munez had part-time at-bats over the last two seasons with the Cardinals (.273 with 59 runs, ten HRs, 55 RBI, and 13 SBs over 465 at-bats). His strikeout rate (21.4) came in about league average in the majors with a slightly improved walk rate (7.3). Munez will come off the bench this year, with a chance to help fantasy teams if he stumbles into starting playing time. His AVH (1.326) is trending down, pointing to a possible 10/20 skill set.
The Cubs gave Fowler plenty of chances to prove his worth in 2019. He finished the second-highest at-bats (487) of his career, which led to the most home runs (19) and RBI (67) in his 12 seasons in the league. His RBI rate (18) moved to a higher level with a rebound in his CTBA (.336). He continues to take plenty of walks (12.9 percent) with a career-high in his strikeout rate (24.7). Fowler had the most production from June 1st to August 31st (.254 with 33 runs, 12 HRs, and 45 RBI over 244 at-bats). His hard-hit rate (28.4) doesn’t have a pulse despite setting a career-best in his HR/FB rate (15.2). Trending toward a bench player with his second stop coming in the unemployment line. At best, a platoon player with a free price point (ADP – 488).
Thomas handled himself well over 38 at-bats (.316 with four HRs and 12 RBI) in his first stint in the majors in 2019. His bat had growth in 2018 and 2019 between AA (.260 with 21 HRs, 67 RBI, and 13 SBs over 384 at-bats) and AAA (.270 with 16 HRs, 65 RBI, and 15 SBs over 396 at-bats). Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .252 with 55 home runs, 258 RBI, and 72 stolen bases over 1,972 at-bats. His strikeout rate (25.4) remains high in the minors with a favorable walk rate (9.7). On the improve, which puts him in the mix for at-bats in centerfield.
Other Options
Matt Wieters (C) signed a one-year contract in mid-January to remain the backup catcher for St. Louis. Over the last two years, he hit .228 over 403 at-bats with 39 runs, 19 home runs, and 57 RBI. In 2019, Wieters had the highest walk rate (25.7) of his career with a step back in his walk rate (6.6). His AVH (1.750) showed growth over the past two seasons.
Rangel Ravelo (1B) kicked around the minors for ten seasons. Over the last five years at AAA, he hit .293 with 42 home runs and 236 RBI over 1,455 at-bats. In his first experience in the majors in 2019, Ravelo hit .205 with two home run and seven RBI over 39 at-bats. In the minors, his strikeout rate (14.2) and walk rate (9.0) were favorable. Not a great option to make the 2020 roster for the Cardinals.
Dylan Carlson (OF) looks to be a nine-iron away from the majors after a step forward in his game in 2019 at AA (.281 with 81 runs, 21 HRs, 59 RBI, and 18 SBs over 417 at-bats). The Cardinals pushed him to AAA (.361 with five HRs, nine RBI, and two SBs over 72 at-bats) with more success. St. Louis drafted him in the first round in 2016. Over four seasons in the minors, Carlson hit .260 with 47 home runs, 194 RBI, and 38 stolen based over 1,478 at-bats. His approach (strikeout rate – 21.7 and walk rate – 11.0) came in about the league average. This season he’ll start the year at AAA while being a dark horse to make the major league club out of spring training. Fantasy owners respect him enough to draft him 321st in the 2020 draft season.
Pitching Staff
The new pitching stud on the block goes by the name Jack Flaherty. Last year his season started with an underachieving 17 starts (4.90 ERA, 1.289 WHIP, and 101 Ks over 90 innings), with a significant part of the damage coming from home runs allowed (19). His arm was brilliant over his final 16 starts (0.93 ERA, 0.6959 WHIP, and 130 Ks over 106.1 innings). Over three starts in the playoffs, Flaherty allowed eight runs and 21 baserunners over 17 innings with 22 strikeouts. He dominated both righties (.182) and lefties (.202) with growth in walk rate (2.5). Even with more strikes thrown, his strikeout rate (10.6) didn’t beat his success in 2018 (10.8). His AFB (94.7) was a career-best. Both his four-seamer (.201 BAA), slider (.187 BAA), and sinker (.184 BAA) had winning success while his curveball (.240 BAA) and show-me changeup (.235 BAA) also played well. Each one of his pitches was phenomenal after his hot stretch over the second half of 2019 (four-seam – .169 BAA, sinker – .172 BAA, slider – .123 BAA, and curveball – .148 BAA). This season he needs to clean up his mistakes in home runs allowed. Foundation ace with an ADP of 24. His next step: 15-plus wins, with a 2.50 ERA, and a push to 250+ strikeouts.
In his first year back in the majors in 2018, after three seasons in Japan, Mikolas outperformed his expected value with an 18-4 record with a 2.83 ERA and 146 strikeouts over 200.2 innings. His WHIP (1.071) suggested a high ERA. Last year his overall game regressed (4.16 ERA, .272 BAA, and 1.223 WHIP). Mikolas had a tick down in his elite walk rate (1.6 – 1.3 in 2018) with a minor rise in his strikeout rate (7.0 – 6.5 in 2018). He allowed two runs or fewer in 14 of his 32 starts with failure in April (5.29 ERA) and August (5.72 ERA). His arm held value at home (3.01 ERA and 65 Ks over 95.2 innings) with plenty of damage on the road (5.40 ERA and 1.415 WHIP). His AFB (94.0) was a step back from 2018 (94.7). Mikolas lost the feel of his four-seamer (.283 BAA) and slider (.296 BAA) while his curveball (.222 BAA) still offered an edge. His HR/FB rate (16.1) was much higher than in 2018 (9.2) while continuing to get a low number of ground balls (29.6 percent). He has midlevel ADP (230). Better than a soft tosser, but he needs to regain his lost value in two pitches. A chance at a 3.50 ERA and only 150 Ks.
Hudson had success in ERA (3.35) and wins (16) in his first full season in the majors, but he killed fantasy teams with his WHIP (1.408) with weakness in strikeouts (136). His year started slowly in April (5.63 ERA and 1.917 WHIP) due to eight home runs allowed and 13 walks over 24 innings. He allowed three runs or fewer in 25 of his final 27 games (2.99 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, .230 BAA, and 117 Ks over 150.2 innings). Hudson struggled against lefties (.260 with 11 HRs over 312 at-bats). His walk rate (4.4) was a mess with better than expected AFB (94.3). Batters had success against his sinker (.298 BAA) and slider (.296 BAA) while his four-seamer (.196 BAA) and cutter (.189 BAA). He induces a high number of ground balls (56.9 percent), but he had a massive HR/FB rate (19.8). Over three seasons in the minors, Hudson went 25-9 with a 2.69 ERA and 292 strikeouts over 277.2 innings. The lack of a swing and miss pitch does invite regression while already having built-in risk in his WHIP. With an ADP of 307, fantasy owners don’t trust his overall package in 2020. Viable 3.50 ERA with growth in WHIP and strikeouts.
Over the last four seasons, Wainwright had a 4.58 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, and 450 strikeouts over 534 innings. Even with his struggles, he did have success in wins in 2016 (13), 2017 (12), and 2019 (14). Wainwright struggled in his first start (four runs and seven baserunners over four innings) while teasing over his next five games (2.96 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, and 24 Ks over 27.1 innings). After a weak May (6.33 ERA), he pitched well against over his next six starts (2.48 ERA and 38 Ks over 36.1 innings). Wainwright blew up again in his next two starts (11.88 ERA) while helping fantasy teams over his next ten games (2.43 ERA and 46 Ks over 59.1 innings). His season ended on a down note (11 runs, 22 baserunners, and five HRs over 9.1 innings with nine Ks). He had a losing battle vs. left-handed batters (.288 with 14 HRs over 292 at-bats). Wainwright pitched great at home (9-4 with a 2.56 ERA and 84 Ks over 95 innings) while crushing fantasy owners on the road (6.22 ERA). His AFB (90.0) remains at the bottom of his career range. He had success with his curveball (.240 BAA) and four-seam (.220 BAA) while losing his way with his sinker (.322 BAA) and cutter (.308 BAA). His walk rate (3.4) remains well below his career average (2.5). A fine line between good and bad, while being tough to time. Avoid the temptation due to his ERA and WHIP risk.
Over 12 seasons in Korea, Kim went 136-77 with a 3.27 ERA and 1,456 strikeouts over 1,673.2 innings. He pitched at a high level over the past two seasons (28-14 with 2.70 ERA and 310 Ks over 326.1 innings). His walk rate (1.8) was the best of his career in 2019 while showing weakness in his career (3.5). Kim pushed his way to a higher total in strikeouts over the previous two years (8.6 and 8.5). He missed 2017 with TJ surgery. His fastball sits in the low 90s while featuring an upside slider, slow curveball, and low-value split-finger pitch. Tempting by stats, but pitching in the majors is a step up for him. His ADP sits at 470 in the early draft season. I’ll wait to see him this spring before deciding if he’s worth a dance. Something like a 4.00 ERA and 1.300 WHIP with 150 strikeouts with a full season of starts.
Over six years in the minors, Reyes had a 3.53 ERA with 542 strikeouts over 394.2 innings. He walked 4.7 batters per nine in his career with elite strikeouts (12.4 per nine). In 2017, Reyes blew out his right elbow in mid-February, which led to TJ surgery and a lost season. He flashed at the end of 2018 in the minors (3-0 with no runs over 23 innings with 44 Ks). Last year Reyes struggled in relief for four games to start the year in St. Louis (five runs and eight baserunners over three innings) before being shipped back to the minors. Over five starts in April at AAA (three runs over 10.1 innings with nine walks and nine Ks). A finger issue put him on the injured list for three weeks. Reyes looked better in two rehab starts at High A (two runs and 12 baserunners over 9.1 innings with 11 Ks). After a bad month in June (10.19 ERA, 2.094 WHIP, and 14 walks over 17.2 innings), his season ended pectoral injury. In his limited innings in the majors in 2019, his AFB (97.1) was elite while offering a changeup, slider, and curveball. There is no way I can trust him to pitch a high number of innings. Only flier until Reyes proves his worth in the majors and improves on his striking throwing ability. Reyes should be closer to saves than pitching 30 starts in the majors.
After going 21-5 in 2016 and 2017 with a 2.25 ERA and 246 strikeouts over 227.1 innings, Helsley lost value at AAA over parts of three seasons (4.17 ERA and 80 Ks over 69 innings). Last year he split time between starting and relieving in the minors. St. Louis called him up for good in late July. Over his final 17 games out of the bullpen, Helsley posted a 2.73 ERA and 20 strikeouts over 26.1 innings, but batters hit .279 against him. His AFB (98.0) came in with elite velocity. He showcased a plus slider (.131 BAA) and curveball (.000). If his changeup doesn’t develop, Helsley has closer upside once he improves his command. Player to keep an eye this March.
Martinez started 2019 with a bum right shoulder that led to seven weeks on the injured list. When he returned, the Cardinals moved him to the bullpen. After seven games (4.50 ERA), St. Louis handed him the 9th inning after Jordan Hicks when down with a right elbow injury. Martinez looked good over his first 11 games as the closer (1.23 ERA and 17 Ks over 14.2 innings). Over the next month, he battled with inconsistency (6.75 ERA and .340 ERA) while converting nine of ten save chances. His year ended with a 1.72 ERA and 20 Ks over 15.2 innings. Martinez had right shoulder surgery after the season. His AFB (96.8) remains an edge. Both his slider (.140 BAA) and changeup (.128 BAA) had success while losing the feel for his four-seam (.286 BAA) and sinker (.381 BAA). Martinez finished with the highest strikeout rate (9.9) of his career while still having a below-par walk rate (3.4). In 2020, he should be healthier while being a coin flip to start or close. His ADP (180) put him in an attractive area, but his role does make a difference when building your fantasy team. Possible 40-plus saves, or 15 wins with a sub 3.50 ERA and 175-plus strikeouts.
Gallegos pitched his way to the bullpen early in his minor league career. Over eight seasons in the minors, he went 23-20 with a 2.78 ERA, 453 strikeouts, and 18 saves. His command was exceptional (1.9 walks per nine) with more growth in his strikeout rate (12.1) in his five seasons at AAA. His major league career started with a 4.55 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 31.2 innings in 2017 and 2018. Last year his arm made a significant step forward with the Cardinals (2.31 ERA and 93 Ks over 74 innings). Batters hit .226 against him with repeated success in his command (strikeout rate – 11.3 and walk rate – 1.9). His AFB (93.9) is just above the league average. Both his slider (.124 BBA) and four-seamer (.201) have closing value. One of the better closer in waiting with an ADP of 195.
Over the last two seasons, Miller went 7-10 with a 4.36 ERA and 115 strikeouts over 88.2 innings. His regression last year came from a massive spike in his HR/9 rate (1.8 – 0.8 in 2018 and 0.9 in his career). He continues to have a high strikeout rate (11.5). After a poor April (5.56 ERA) due to four home runs and nine walks over 11.1 innings, Miller pitched well over his next 33 innings (2.73 ERA and 43 Ks over 33 innings). A couple of disaster outings lead to a wretched end to his season (8.71 ERA). His AFB (92.8) is no longer an edge with three straight seasons of fade. Miller still has an elite slider (.193 BBA). His days of closing look to be over while still giving St. Louis good innings in a setup role.
