New York Yankees
The Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2009, which is a significant slump considering their dynamic history in baseball. New York has 27 titles, 40 AL pennants, and 55 playoff appearances since 1921. They won 100 or more games in 2018 and 2019, with 22 trips to the postseason over the past 26 years.
Their improvement last year came on offense (1st in runs – 943, 2nd in home runs – 306, and 2nd in RBIs – 904). Before the season started, the Yankees lost their top pitching (Luis Severino) for most of the year, which was the main reason they slipped to 14th in ERA (4.31). New York tied for the league lead as well in saves (50).
Update: Luis Severino will miss the 2020 season after having TJ surgery on February 25th. James Paxton underwent a microscopic lumbar discectomy to remove a peridiscal cyst and will miss three to four months.
With a World Series appearance being an ace away, the Yankees placed their bet on the rising arm of Gerrit Cole, who signed a nine-year deal. Their big loss in the offseason was an 81-game suspension for SP Domingo German for a domestic incident.
In 2019, New York played much of the year without their top two sluggers (Aaron Judge – 62 missed games and Giancarlo Stanton – 144 missed games).
This season the Yankees are the favorite to win the American League thanks to a pair of aces, an excellent power-hitting offense, and strength in their bullpen.
LeMahieu was an easy player to overlook in 2019, with New York having three options available to play 2B and SS. He hit the ground running over the first 12 games in April (.439 with nine runs and seven RBI over 41 at-bats), setting up the greatest season of his nine-year career. LeMahieu blossomed into an edge in four categories. He finished with the most runs (109), HRs (26), and RBI (102) of his career with a stud bat RBI rate (23). His average hit rate (1.584) is now an area where 20 HRs could be expected going forward. LeMahieu had the second-most hits of 95 MPH or more while ranking 32nd in hard-hit rate (47.2). He’s tough to strike out (K rate – 13.7) with a below-par walk rate (7.0). Even with a spike in power, his ground ball rate (50.1) is too high, which was offset by a massive jump in his HR/FB rate (19.3). LeMahieu was a beast vs. lefties (.375 with ten HRs and 31 RBI over 160 at-bats) and at home (.338 with 19 HRs and 54 RBI over 284 at-bats). For me, he was the most crucial bat for New York last season (.400 with 44 runs, four HRs and 36 RBI over 75 at-bats in high leverage situations). A top of an order bat in one of the highest-scoring offenses in baseball. With an ADP of 64, LeMahieu could work for the right team structure while expecting a .300/100/20/75 type season.
There may not be a player in baseball that can match Judge’s power or ability to hit the ball hard (hard-hit rate – 57.1 in 2019) when he makes contact (CTBA – .461, .441, and .435 over the past three years). His average hit rate (1.981) remains elite. His risk comes with a massive K rate (31.5), along with questions with his RBI rate (11.2 in 2019 and 13.9 in his career). Judge takes plenty of walks (14.3 percent) to help his value in runs. He crushed LH pitching (.343 with eight HRs and 19 RBI over 99 at-bats). His HR/FB rate (35.1) screams league-leading power, which would be helped by more loft in his swing (fly-ball rate – 32.4 in 2019 and 43.2 in his 50-HR season in 2017. Last year he lost two months of the year with an oblique injury. Judge didn’t hit his strike in 2019 until August 15th (.301 with 15 HRs and 23 RBI over his final 133 at-bats). Over two years with missed games, he does have some injury risk while being fully priced on draft day (ADP – 28). With 500-plus at-bats, a fantasy owner can expect a neutral batting average with a 110/50/110/5 skill set. His next step is improving his RBI rate and ability to make contact.
Torres made the jump from upside prospect to elite power bat in 2019. His average hit rate (1.934) made massive strides since 2015 (AVH – 1.307). He played well over the first three months of the year (.295 with 19 HRs and 47 RBI over 281 at-bats), but Torres lost his home runs in July (one HR over 88 at-bats). His correction power came in August (.277 with 13 HRs and 21 RBI over 101 at-bats). His approach came in the league average (K rate – 21.4 and walk rate – 8.0). Torres repeated his fly-ball rate (41.9) with further growth in his HR/FB rate (21.5). There’s a lot to like here while owning more underlying speed in the minors (61 Ks over 1,407 at-bats). His next step points to 200 combined runs and RBI depending where Torres hits in the batting order with 35-plus HRs. His batting average should move closer to .300.
2019 was a lost season for Stanton due to four injuries (left biceps, left shoulder, right, knee, and quad). In 2018, Stanton set a career-high in at-bats (617) and plate appearances (705) while turning in his second straight, healthy season. Even with more playing time, Giancarlo fell short in just about area to his excellent 2017 season (.281 with 123 runs, 59 HRs, 123 RBI, and two SBs). His step back in success was a direct correlation to his failure in K rate (29.9), which almost matched 2015 (29.9) and 2016 (29.8). Stanton also lost some value in his walk rate (10.4 – 13.2 in 2017 and 11.4 in his career). His swing played well vs. LH pitching (.316 with 13 HRs and 28 RBI over 152 at-bats) while showing more risk against righties (.249 with 25 HRs and 72 HRs over 465 at-bats). His fly-ball rate (36.5) declined for the third straight year while still producing a high HR/FB rate (25.0 – 26.7 in his career). The shift to more at-bats at DH does help his ability to stay healthy. His ADP slipped to 55 in 15-team leagues in early January in 2020. Risk/reward player who is 3-for-6 in healthy seasons over the previous six years.
Over the first three months of 2019, Sanchez rewarded fantasy owners with 38 runs, 23 HRs, and 54 RBI over 238 at-bats while hitting .261. His success was an edge at the catching position, but he turned into a hot mess in July (.102 with one HR and four RBI over 59 at-bats with 20 Ks). After missing three weeks with a groin issue, Sanchez returned to his early-season form (.261 with eight HRs and 13 RBI over 69 at-bats). He missed two-thirds of September with a second groin injury, leading to another down month (.200 with two HRs and six RBI over 30 at-bats). In the end, his K rate (28.0) faded for the second straight year while continuing to have a slight advantage in his walk rate (9.0). He struggled with lefties (.200 with seven HRs and 14 RBI over 95 at-bats) and on the road (.194 with 15 HRs and 43 RBI) in batting average. His defense remains a problem (15 errors, seven bass balls, and 30 wild pitches), which was a problem as well in 2017 (13/16/53) and 2018 (6/18/45). Sanchez added more loft to his swing (fly-ball rate – 47.6 – 40.7 in his career) while setting a career-high in his HR/FB rate (26.4). Fantasy owners priced him as the second rank catcher in the early draft season in the high-stakes market in January, but they are only willing to pay their 86th draft pick. Overall, his quest for more power creates more swings and misses plus many easy outs via fly balls. His AVH (2.261) screams 40-plus home runs with 440 at-bats, but he has downside in missed time and batting average without a rebound in his thought process and/or his approach at the plate. New York would love to get him more time at DH.
When the gate opened for the 2019 season, there was something wrong with Andujar based on his poor at-bats over two weeks (.128 with no HR, one RBI, and 11 Ks over 47 at-bats). He suffered a tear in his labrum in his right shoulder in the third game of the season that ended up needing surgery on May 20th. New York expects him to be ready for spring training. Heading into last season, other than his low walk rate (4.1), Andujar did a lot right in 2018. He proved to be an edge run producer (17.5 percent RBI rate) with growth in his average hit rate (1.735). Miguel did a nice minimizing the damage in Ks (16.0 percent). Over the last two months of the year, he hit .304 with 34 runs, 14 HRs, and 46 RBI over 217 at-bats highlighted by a great August (.320 with ten HRs and 29 RBI over 122 at-bats). Andujar played at a high level vs. RH pitching (.309 with 20 HRs and 70 RBI over 414 at-bats) while needing some growth against lefties (.264 with seven HRs and 22 RBI). His HR/FB rate (15.7) was the best of his career at any level. Before last year, he had the best season of his career between AA and AAA in 2017 (.315 with 16 HRs, 82 RBI, and five SBs over 480 at-bats) leading to late-season call up to the majors (4-for-7 with four RBI). Andujar hit .274 over his six seasons in the minors with 51 HRs, 336 RBI, and 30 SBs over 2,271 at-bats. Shoulder injuries can lead to a slow recovery in power. The Yankees don’t like his glove at third base, which points to a move to first in some fashion in 2020. An interesting player, but I have to see if he’s driving the ball well in spring training before paying for his 2018 stats. The have-nots in the high-stakes market have him listed as a DH out of the gate with an ADP of 232, which is at least 150 picks lower than 2019.
After success over the second half of 2018 (.322 with 15 HRs and 36 RBI over 143 at-bats), Voit appeared to be a value on draft day in 2019. New York gave him starting at-bats over the first three months of the season, and he responded with solid production (.280 with 53 runs, 17 HRs, and 50 RBI over 293 at-bats). His only real negative over this span was his K rate (25.8 – 26.7 in 2019 with New York and 17.8 in his minor league career). He suffered an abdomen injury in late June, which cost him a couple of weeks. The same issue flared up again a month later, and it was deemed a sports hernia that required surgery after the season. After the All-Star break, Voit crushed fantasy teams (.228 with four HRs and 12 RBI). He did take plenty of walks (13.9 percent) on the year with regression in his K rate (27.8) and failure with runners on base (RBI rate – 13). Pretty much a tale of two different halves in 2019. The good gives him a 30-HR skill set, but his batting average can’t repeat his 2018 success (.322) due to his rising strikeout total. The first base, third base, and DH will have a rotation of players in 2020 for New York, with Voit expected to see at least 500 at-bats. Start the bidding at .275 with 80 runs, 30 HRs, and 85 RBI while looking to draft him around the 193rd pick in drafts.
On paper, Gardner didn’t look much in 2019, but he did finish as the 76th ranked hitter in SIscore. He set career highs in HRs (27) and RBI (74) while offering an edge runs (86) and some value in steals (10). His batting average continues to be a liability thanks to a weak contact batting average (.321). Gardner had a huge spike in his average hit rate (2.008 – 1.560 in 2018), which ranked up with top hitters in the game. His bat came up empty vs. lefties (.212 with five HRs and 17 RBI). He played the best in September (.259 with two HRs and 20 RBI over 85 at-bats). Gardner will take walks (9.5 percent) while having some fade in his K rate (19.6 – 17.6 in 2018). His HR/FB rate (19.3) was well above his career resume (9.4) and his 2018 season (8.5). A veteran player who should be on the field about 80 percent of the time in 2020 after signing a one-year deal with the Yankees. I can’t see him repeating his power, which turns him into a possible three category liability player. In the right lineup, and you won’t have to fight for him on draft day (ADP – 329). At best, .260 with 80 runs, 20 HRs, 65 RBI, and a dozen steals.
Urshela helped save some of the downside in the Yankee’s starting lineup after taking over for the injured Miguel Andujar in early April. His bat had an empty feel over his first 26 games (one HR and seven RBI over 71 at-bats), but he did hit for a high average (.352). Urshela barely had a fantasy pulse over the next month or so (.277 with three HRs and 18 RBI over 94 at-bats). He found his rhythm over the next third of the seasons (.366 with 39 runs, 14 HRs, and 41 RBI over 191 at-bats) to help fantasy teams move up in the standings. The air came out of his swing down the stretch (.209 with three HRs and eight RBI over 86 at-bats). His K rate (18.3) was favorable while offering a low walk rate (5.3). When reviewing his previous three years at AAA, Urshela outperformed in his CTBA (.392 – .312, .313, and .332 in the minors) and his average hit rate (1.698 – 1.391, 1.405, and 1.375 in the minors) while also having a massive spike in his HR/FB rate (17.5). Over six seasons at AAA, he hit .275 with 32 HRs and 190 RBI over 1,474 at-bats. I can’t see a repeated season in any area, pointing to a bench role as the season moves on. Only a donation with an ADP of 246 in the high-stakes market.
Before 2019, Tauchman has a groundhog day feel for his career. He spent four seasons at AAA (.309 with 39 HRs, 228 RBI, and 55 SBs over 1,393 at-bats). His bat showed growth in 2017 (.331/16/80/16) and 2018 (.323/20/81/12) at Albuquerque, but the Rockies gave him a minimal opportunity in the majors (.153 over 59 at-bats with two RBI). After a couple of injuries in the outfield in New York, the Yankees gave Tauchman his long-awaited opportunity in the big leagues. Over the first half of the year, he only hit .208 with four HRs and 14 RBI over 106 at-bats in New York. His bat came to life over the next 24 games (.425 with eight HRs, 27 RBI, and four SBs over 80 at-bats). Over the next month, Tauchman hit .216 with one HR and six RBi over 74 at-bats before landing on the injured list with a calf injury. His K rate (24.0) came in below the league average (21.5) while the ability to take walks (11.5 percent). HR/FB rate (20.6) was by fay his best at any level in the minors with growth in each of the past three seasons. A solid fill in bat with the foundation to help in five categories if given starting at-bats and growth in his K rate.
Making contact is the biggest obstacle for Frazier earning starting at-bats in the majors. Over 429 plate appearances with New York, his K rate is 29.4 percent, with a slight improvement in 2019 (28.5). He hit .262 in his four seasons at AAA with 33 HRs, 96 RBI, and 14 SBs over 832 at-bats. His walk rate came in at 9.0 over this stretch with a better K rate (22.8). His inability to play centerfield hurts his opportunity to get at-bats in the majors with Aaron Judge and Mike Stanton starting at LF and RF. For now, only a streaky power hitter who may have playable value if given injury replacement at-bats in the majors.
Bench Options
Kyle Higashioka (C) will compete for the starting backup catching job for the Yankees. His bat has an empty feeling in the majors (.164 with six HRs and 17 RBI 146 at-bats), but he did show power at AAA (.246 over 647 at-bats with 89 runs, 37 HRs, and 120 RBI) over five seasons.
Mike Ford (1B) is another player that delivered solid production (.259 with 30 runs, 12 HRs, and 25 RBI over 143 at-bats) off the bench in 2019. He has a good approach at the plate (K rate – 17.2 and walk rate – 10.4) with reasonable success in his minor league career at AAA (.274 with 45 HRs and 133 RBI over 755 at-bats). A late-developing player who starts the year at age 27. With a hot start, Ford may work himself into a platoon role at first base.
Aaron Hicks (OF) had TJ surgery at the end of October, which puts him on pace to return sometime next August. In an injured plagued season, he hit .235 with 12 HRs and 36 RBI over 221 at-bats. Hicks lost his feel for the strike zone in 2019 (K rate – 28.2 – 19.1 in 2018) while continuing to take walks (12.2 percent). A tough carry even if picked up at the All-Star break.
After a career season in 2018 (15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 276 Ks over 200.1 innings), Cole pushed his game even higher last season. He led the American League in ERA (2.50), strikeouts (326), and Ks/9 (13.8). His only negative came from 29 HRs allowed (1.2 per nine) while setting a career-best in wins (20). Cole dominated both RH (.198 BAA) and LH (.175 BAA) batters. Over the first two months of the year, he went 5-5 with a 4.04 ERA and 112 Ks over 71.2. His failure came from 12 HRs allowed over this span. Over his final 21 starts, Cole allowed two runs or less in 19 starts leading to a 1.73 ERA and 214 Ks over 140.2 innings. He struck out ten or more batters in each of his last nine starts in the regular season while going 15-0 after June 13th. In the playoffs, Cole threw another 36.2 innings (1.72 ERA and 47 Ks). His AFB (97.4) was a career-best with batters hitting only .175 against it. He had strength in his slider (.179 BAA) and curveball (.199 BAA) plus a show-me changeup (.234 BAA). Workhorse type who continues to be tougher to hit. A move to the AL East should lead to some regression in his ERA, but Cole will still be the top pitcher drafted in 2020. A high scoring offense and good bullpen should lead to 20-plus wins with a top ERA and another run at 300 Ks.
Update: Luis Severino will miss the 2020 season after having TJ surgery on February 25th. Three weeks after signing a four-year $40 contract, Severino was scratched from his start in spring training. The first report suggested rotator cuff inflammation than required a cortisone shot. By the end of March, he was long tossing giving fantasy owners hope that he would be a value after a massive drop in price point due to his injury. In early April, New York shut him down with lat strain (second injury). Severino didn’t return to the mound (rehab work) until early August. His first and only appearance in the minors came on September first (two runs and three hits over one inning). New York gave him three starts over the second half of the month, which led to a 1.50 ERA and 17 Ks in 12 innings. In the playoff, he allowed two runs and 14 baserunners over 8.1 innings with ten Ks). His AFB (96.0) was two mph lower than 2018. Both his four-seam fastball (1.80 BAA) and slider (.182 BAA) were tough to hit.
Before the All-Star break in 2018, Luis was one of the best pitchers in baseball (14-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 144 Ks over 128.1 innings). Over his next nine starts, he went 3-5 with a 6.95 ERA and 58 Ks over 45.1 innings while serving up nine home runs. Severino set a career-high in wins (19) with more improvement in his walk rate (2.2). His K rate (10.3) finished just below his breakout 2017 season (10.7). Batters hit .238 against him compared to .208 in 2017 with his best value coming vs. righties (.227 BAA). His AFB (98.0) remained elite, but batters hit .272 against it (.247 in 2017). His best pitch remains a slider (.191 BAA) while his changeup (.270 BAA) fell short of expectations (.171 BAA in 2017).
This season Severino has an ADP of 60 as the 18th pitcher drafted. There is no doubt that he has ace upside with an expected edge in four pitching categories (wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks). In 2018, Severino was a top ten starting pitcher. His spring training will determine his ultimate fantasy value. For now, treat him as an edge as a SP2 if possible with 15 wins, a 3.00 ERA, and 225 Ks.
Update: James Paxton underwent a microscopic lumbar discectomy to remove a peridiscal cyst and will miss three to four months.
After flashing in 2017 over 24 starts (12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 156 Ks over 136 innings), Paxton hasn’t been unable to repeat his success or develop into a high-volume pitcher. Over his past three seasons, he went 38-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 550 Ks over 447 innings. His K rate (11.1) remained high in 2019, but Paxton walked more batters (3.3 per nine) while serving up too many home runs (1.4 per nine). In his first year in New York, he averaged 5.1 innings per start (5.2 in his previous two years with Mariners). Even with good command (nine walks and 46 Ks over 154 plate appearances), he struggled vs. lefties (.266 BAA). His stuff played well at home (7-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 97 Ks over 78 innings), but Paxton was hittable on the road (.274 BAA – 8-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 89 Ks over 72.2 innings). He missed more of May with a left knee injury, which may have been part of his struggles in June and July (6.38 ERA, 1.833 WHIP, and 14 HRs over 48 innings). Paxton saved his season with a ten-game win streak over the final two months with a 2.25 ERA and 68 Ks over 60 innings. His AFB (95.7) continues to be an edge in velocity, but batters hit .268 vs. his four-seam fastball and .318 against his sinker. His curveball (.177 BAA) had more value this his cutter (.242 BAA) in 2019 (reversed in 2018). I can’t price him as foundation SP2 (ADP of 93) due to lack of inning pitched on his career resume, but his stuff does have upside with better location of his fastball in the strike zone. There is something to be said for an edge in wins. Possible 3.50 ERA with 225-plus Ks if he came pitch 180 innings with 15 or more being a given if he stays healthy for 30 starts. For the record, Paxton ranked 38th in SIscores for pitchers in 2019.
From a distance, Tanaka had a disaster smell due to his weakness in ERA (4.45) and WHIP (1.242). Behind the numbers was a serviceable arm at home (8-3 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and 85 Ks over 98.2 innings). For some reason, Tanaka was a complete bust the road (3-6 with a 6.05 ERA, 1.416 WHIP, and 64 Ks over 83.1 innings). He’ll throw plenty of strikes (walk rate – 2.0) while getting ahead in the count (first-pitch strike rate – 68.7), but his K rate (7.4) lost value (9.2 in 2018). Some of his disaster downside is tied to a high HR/FB rate (1.4 in 2019 and 1.3 in his career). In the offseason, Tanaka has surgery on his right elbow to remove a bone spur. His AFB (91.7) was a career-low. The only pitch that worked for him in 2019 was his slider (.187 BBA), which he threw more than a third of the time. The decline in strikeouts came directly from his lost split-finger fastball (.274 BAA with 36 Ks over 270 at-bats). Tanaka had success with his split in 2017 (.191 BAA with 83 Ks in 230 at-bats) and 2018 (.220 BBA with 81 Ks over 241 at-bats). With his elbow cleaned up, his pitches should have more life this year. Pencil him in for six innings a start with about 12 wins and a chance at 175 Ks if he regains his split-finger fastball. I’m sensing closer to his 2018 season in ERA (3.75) and WHIP (1.150).
German picked up the slack for the injury of Luis Severino in 2019. He couldn’t match him in overall stats, but German did win plenty of games (18) with serviceable innings. Over his first 16 games, he went 12-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 95 Ks over 88 innings. Batters hit .231 vs. him over this period with 15 home runs. Three disaster starts (18 runs and 28 baserunners over 13.1 innings) over a nine-game stretch led to 5.73 ERA over 48.2 innings with much of damage coming via the home run (15). German missed the last three weeks of June with a hip issue and the final few of the regular season with a domestic violence incident. Major league baseball suspended him for 81 games in January, which means he won’t see the mound in 2020 until June. Both his K rate (9.6) and walk rate (2.5) fell in a range of his minor league resume (29-20 with a 2.69 ERA and 458 Ks over 465 innings. This season German needs to remove the home runs allowed to LH batters (.242 with 20 HRs over 310 at-bats). His AFB (93.6) came in lower than his previous resume (95.0 in 2018). He had success getting batters out with both his changeup (.229 BAA) and curveball (.189 BAA). With 20 starts, German should toss about 110 innings with growth in his ERA and reasonable Ks.
Happ didn’t pitch well in 2019, but his ERA (4.91) didn’t match his expected value (3.90 ERA) based on his WHIP (1.295). His lost value came from fewer strikeouts (7.8 per nine – 8.9 in 2018) and a sharp rise in an already poor HR/9 rate (1.9 – 1.4 in 2018 and 1.2 in his career). Over his three previous seasons, he went 47-21 with a 3.44 ERA and 498 Ks over 518 innings). Happ had no answer for RH batters (.268 with 28 HRs over 463 at-bats). After 25 bad starts (5.58 ERA), he somehow regains his form over the final six starts of the season (2.23 ERA and 35 Ks over 32.1 innings). His HR/FB rate (18.3) was a disaster. Happ lost some velocity on his fastball (92.2 – about 92.8 over the previous four years). Last September, he battled a left biceps issue that required a cortisone shot. Backend inning eater who will win some games if he starts the year in the rotation, which is expected with Domingo German out at least two months.
Montgomery missed almost all of the previous two seasons with a left elbow injury that required surgery in June of 2018. Just when he was making some progress in his rehab work in 2019, he developed a left shoulder injury that cost him almost the remainder of the year. Montgomery only pitched 31.1 innings over the past two seasons with 4.02 ERA and 28 Ks. Over his first four seasons in the minors, he went 25-14 with a 2.57 ERA and 297 Ks over 300.2 innings highlight by his success in 2016 at AA and AAA (14-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 134 Ks over 139.1 innings). New York gave him a starting job in early April in 2017, but he struggled over his first seven starts (4.81 ERA and 37 Ks over 39.1 innings). Montgomery threw the ball at a high level over his final 22 starts that season (7-4 with 3.57 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, and 107 Ks over 116 innings). His walk rate (3.0) was above his minor league resume (2.6) while posting a stable K rate (8.3) to start his career. Jordan threw three very good secondary pitches (curveball – .172 BAA, slider – .184 BAA, and changeup – .205 BAA). His average fastball came in at 92.1 MPH with better results with his four-seam fastball (.259 BAA) than his sinker (.396 BAA). A lot to prove with no clear path to a starting job.
Chapman has a great arm, but he continues to come up short in innings pitched and saves. He’s never had over 38 saves in any season in the majors while pitching fewer than 60 innings in each of the last four years. Chapman had a rebound in his walk rate (3.9 – 5.3 in 2018) while also losing some momentum in his K rate (13.4 – 16.3 in 2018). Over the last two seasons, New York won 203 games, but he picked up only 69 saves due to many games being blowouts. Batters hit .200 or lower against Chapman in every year in his career (.161 BAA over ten seasons). He pitched well in every month except July (eight runs and 20 baserunners over 8.2 innings with 12 Ks) when he issued 11 of his 25 walks. Batters had a massive line drive rate (28.1 percent) against Chapman in 2019. His AFB (98.3) no longer has triple-digit value while still getting hitters out (.220 BAA). He still throws a slider (.149 BAA) as his second-best pitch, followed by a show-me sinker (.121 BAA). This season he has an ADP of 88 as the third closer off the board. In 2019, his stats ranked 27th in SIscore rankings. Chapman has fewer than 100 Ks in each of his last four seasons, but he still helps in ERA, WHIP, and saves. Great arm with questionable command while still looking for an impact year in saves.
Over his last three seasons, Ottavino made strides as a late-inning arm. He has a K rate over 10.5 over the past five years in the majors, but his walk rate (5.4 in 2019, 4.2 in 2018, 6.6 in 2017) invites enough trouble to keep him away from the 9th inning long term. Last season he had the lowest ERA (1.90) of his career, but his WHIP (1.312) was way out of line. Ottavino pitches well vs. righties (.177 BAA), with work to do vs. LH batters (.241 BAA with 15 walks and 21 Ks over 97 plate appearances). His AFB (94.3) is trending backward, with four straight years of regression. He throws a slider (.169 BAA) as his best pitch while losing the feel for his cutter (.381 BAA). Ottavino pitched the best ball of his career over the past two seasons with plenty of appearances in games (75 and 73). This year he’ll have to face a minimum of three batters per appearance helping his inning total. Not closer worthy, but he may win double-digit games with a chance at 100 Ks if he pitches 80 innings.
Green developed into an exciting bullpen arm over the previous three seasons. He dominated in 2017 (1.69 ERA and 103 Ks over 69.0 innings) with success in 2018 (8-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 94 Ks over 75.2 innings). His ride was a lot bumpier last season (4.50 ERA), which led to a trip the minors after a miserable April (14 runs, 19 baserunners, and four HRs over 7.2 innings). He struggled again over his first five games in the majors in May (6.35 ERA) before finding his stride over his next 19 contests (0.69 ERA with three walks and 38 Ks over 26 innings). Green had a pair of disaster outing over nine games, leading to 11 runs and 19 baserunners over 12 innings. His season ended with a great 17.2 innings (0.51 ERA and 34 Ks). He had almost the same value vs. lefties (.246 BAA) and righties (.248 BAA). Green has a plus fastball (96.6) while relying on a slider (.221 BAA) as his second pitch. Flashes of closing ability once he adds more consistency to his game and removes the damage of home runs (1.3 per nine allowed in 2019). His danger in power comes from pitching up in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 42.4).
