New York Mets
The Mets improved their win total in each of the last two seasons (70 in 2017, 77 in 2018, and 86 in 2019), but they missed the playoffs for the third straight year. Over the previous 21 seasons, New York has two trips to the World Series and three other postseason appearances. In the team’s 58-year history, the Mets have two championships (1968 and 1986) and nine total seasons in the playoffs.
Their growth in 2019 came from their offensive, which was highlighted by the great year by Pete Alonso (.260 with 53 HRs and 120 RBI). The Mets finished 13th in runs (791), 11th in home runs (242), and 12 in RBI (767). They ranked 11th in ERA (4.24) with 38 saves and 12 saves. New York would have made the playoffs if Edwin Diaz didn’t lose his way as their closer. He blew seven of his 33 save chances with a massive regression in his ERA (5.59 – 1.96 in 2018 with 57 saves).
New York didn’t add any new bats to their starting lineup, but they will have OF Yoenis Cespedes back on the field after missing all of 2019. The center field job looks to be in flux with an overflow of options in left field and third base. Eduardo Nunez was added in a minor league deal to compete for a bench role.
The Mets signed SP Rick Porcello, SP Michael Wacha, and RP Dellin Betances to strengthen the back of their starting rotation and bullpen.
Based on pieces to win a World Series, the Mets have a pair of aces if Noah Syndergaard rebounds. (Update: Syndergaard underwent successful Tommy John surgery. He is out for the 2020 season.)
They need Edwin Diaz to become the lockdown ninth-inning arm they expected when they traded for him last season. The final part is a bat that rises in the big moments of the game. Cespedes has the fire to pull this off if he plays well in 2020. The other player with star power is Robinson Cano, who lost his way over the last two seasons (only 23 HRs and 89 RBI over 700 at-bats). The obvious choice would be Alonzo.
New York has an over/under of 86.5 wins by oddsmaker in Las Vegas. I expect them to push higher, but they don’t have the offense to match the Braves or the Nationals. The Mets will be in the hunt to make a World Series run as a wild card team.
In his first season with starting regular at-bats, McNeil flashed power (23 HRs) with a high batting average (.318) skill set. His CTBA (.372) fell in line with his success in 2018 between the minors (.391) and the majors (.368). He had a shorter walk rate (6.2) than expected with being tough to strikeout (13.2 percent). Even with a productive year, McNeil did miss time in late May and mid-August with hamstring issues while having his season end in late September with a broken right wrist. He hit well in April (.370), but his power (one home run over 100 at-bats) didn’t emerge until his success over the final four months (.301 with 63 runs, 21 HRs, and 60 RBI). His swing played well against both righties (.320) and lefties (.312), but he had 20 of his 23 home runs off right-handed pitching. McNeil doesn’t have an edge in his hard-hit rate (36.6 – 236th) with some regression in his fly-ball rate (15.4). His HR/FB rate (15.4) came in near his career highs. With an ADP of 93, McNeil will need to get 550 at-bats with 175 combined runs and over 25 home runs to pay off. His batting average should be a given while also owning some underlying speed. More of a steady option than a player. In 2019, he ranked 61st in SIscore (1.45) for hitters.
Two years ago, Cano looked like a lock to get 3,000 hits. After picking up 194 combined hits in 2018 and 2019, he needs 430 more hits to reach a Hall of Fame milestone. Last year he turned into a weak batter with runners on base (RBI rate – 11, 18 in 2018, and 16 in his career). Cano had a career-high strikeout rate (16.3 – 12.6 in his career) and his lowest walk rate (5.9) since 2009. His AVH (1.670) rebounded and supported 20-plus home runs based on his resume. He had a sharp decline in his CTBA (.321), but his hard-hit rate (46.0) ranked highly in 2018 (12th) and 2019 (44th). Cano lost his way against lefties (.215 with two HRs and seven RBI over 107 at-bats) while failing to secure a full month of at-bats after April (.270 with three HRs and 11 RBI over 100 at-bats). Coming into last year, Cano had right knee surgery in December of 2018. His demise in 2019 started on April 21st after getting hit with a pitch on his right hand. A week later, he took another pitch to his left hand. Cano landed on the injured list in late May with a quad issue and again in early August with a torn hamstring. In September, he took another pitch off his left foot (toe injury) and another one again to his right hand. Fantasy owners have him priced as roadkill based on his ADP (428). Cano is a proven major league bat that battled injuries in back-to-back seasons. Given his free price point, I’m willing to give him a ride with the idea of a floor of a .280/80/20/80 season.
Cespedes missed three-fourths of the 2018 season with a heel injury that required two surgeries. Seven weeks into 2019, he broke his right ankle, officially ending any chance of playing. Over the last two seasons with playing time, he hit .282 with 66 runs, 26 home runs, 71 RBI, and three steals over 432 at-bats. In 2018, his strikeout rate (31.9) was way out of line from his previous resume (21.0). His walk rate (8.3) has been over the league average over the last three years. Cespedes continues to have a massive fly ball swing (52.7 in 2018 and 49.6 in 2017) with strength in his HR/FB rate (18.4). Both his average hit rate (1.892) and CTBA (.407) have been strong over the last four seasons. He’s pacing to be ready for spring training. His ADP (494) doesn’t put much faith in him returning to his previous form. Cespedes can only play in leftfield, so his playing time does look cloudy heading into the season. Middle of the order bat with plenty of power and a neutral batting average if/when he locks down a starting job.
In 2018, Alonso hit .260 over 258 at-bats at AAA with 21 home runs, which translated to 49 home runs and 155 RBI if he matched his 2019 playing time (597 at-bats) with the Mets. In essence, his bat had almost the same value except for fewer RBI chances and a step back in approach. His strikeout rate (26.4) was much stronger in the minors (19.4) with a similar walk rate (10.4). Alonso had the same power against right-handed (.266 with 39 HRs and 85 RBI over 447 at-bats) and left-handed (.240 with 14 HRs and 35 RBI over 150 at-bats) pitching. He played better before the All-Star break (.280 with 30 HRs and 68 RBI over 325 at-bats) while losing his swing in July (.177 with six HRs and 13 RBI over 79 at-bats). Alonso had six home runs and 11 RBI over his final 48 at-bats in his quest to win the home run title in the National League. His hard-hit rate (42.3) ranked 106th in baseball with a career-high HR/FB rate (30.6). His swing path looked balanced (18.0/40.5/41.5) in 2019 while offering more fly balls at times in the minors. This season he can be had with the 31st pick in drafts. His batting average should improve going forward as his strikeout rate walks toward his minor league career. Pencil him in for .270 with a floor of 40 home runs.
With progression in each year in the majors, Conforto still hasn’t hit his ceiling. Both his batting average (.257) and RBI rate (.15) have room for growth while his AVH (1.992) puts him on a path to smash 40 home runs. He has a top of the order walk rate (13.0) in each of the previous three years, while his strikeout rate (23.0) is inching closer to the league average. Conforto isn’t quite ready to make an impact against lefties (.241 with six HRs and 26 RBI over 174 at-bats). His best success in 2019 came in August (.279 with seven HRs and 23 RBI over 104 at-bats) while having a floor of four home runs in each month. He has a high HR/FB rate in each of the past three seasons (27.3, 19.7, and 20.5). This year Conforto could hit anywhere from 2nd to 5th, which dictates his value in runs and RBI. On the verge of a 100/40/100 season with an ADP of 119.
Davis looks to be one of the trickier Mets to gauge in 2020. His bat is ready to earn starting at-bats, but New York has an extra option at 3B and LF on the roster never mind trying to find playing the Jed Lowrie if he’s still with the team when the season opens. Davis had a high average hit rate (1.714) and contact batting average (.403) in his first year with substantial at-bats in the majors. His strikeout rate (21.4) and walk rate (8.4) came in at the league average. He hit over .300 in four of six months with his best value and opportunity coming in August and September (.321 with 31 runs, 12 HRs, and 28 RBI over 165 at-bats). Over five seasons in the minors, Davis hit .292 with 105 home runs, 393 RBI, and 19 steals over 1,981 at-bats. His one weakness last year was his RBI rate (12). He had almost the same results against righties (.305 with 14 HRs and 40 RBI over 269 at-bats) and lefties (.312 with eight HRs and 17 RBI over 141 at-bats). Davis had the 30th hard-hit rate (47.7) in baseball. Even with strength in his HR/FB rate (23/2), his fly-ball rate (30.2) remains low due to a ground ball swing. On the rise with some questions with his playing. Fantasy owners have him priced in the early draft season as a full-time starter based on his ADP (177). Close to a 25/85 player with a step back in batting average if he gets 500 at-bats.
Ramos has that safe feel for a fantasy team wanting a steady catching option. His ADP (171) is a bit pricey when considering the power and upside pitchers that go around him in drafts. Ramos continues to have a high RBI rate (17), which invites a higher slot in the batting order. His AVH (1.449) was a five-year low, and it wasn’t helped by his massive ground ball swing (62.4 percent – 55.5 in his career). For most of his recent seasons, he has had strength in his HR/FB rate (17.9 – 18.0 in his career). Ramos finished with the best approach of his career (strikeout rate – 13.2 and walk rate (8.4). He played well against left-handed pitching (.346 with five HRs and 20 RBI over 107 at-bats). Over the second half of the year, Ramos came up short in July (.203/1/5) and September (.221/1/7) with his best play of the year coming in August (.434 with three HRs and 20 RBI over 99 at-bats). He scored 26 of his 52 runs in April and May. Only mid-teen upside in power unless Ramos has a change in his swing path. His RBIs tend to beat his run total due to his snail’s pace around the bases.
Last year Rosario had half his at-bats hitting seventh and eighth in the batting order. He still finished 57th in SIscore (1.74) while having an ADP of 129 in 2020. His strikeout rate (18.9) moved into a favorable area while continuing to take minimal walks (4.7 percent). Surprisingly, Rosario had plenty of RBI chances (397) with growth in his RBI rate (16). Even with a bump in home runs (15) and his AVH (1.503) doesn’t support further follow-through without more strength and/or a better launch angle. He had a mid-tier hard-hit rate (39.1) with a step up in his CTBA (.360). After the All-Star break, Rosario hit .319 with six HRs, 30 RBI, and nine SBs over 285 at-bats. His fly-ball rate (29.3) remains shallow, with minimal improvement in his HR/FB rate (10.3). He had more power and success against lefties (.311 with six HRs and 18 RBI over 148 at-bats). He is improving while lacking a top of the order approach. I see a regression in RBIs based on chances alone, but all of his other categories should finish with comparable value. If he somehow hits first or second in the batting order, his runs and steals should push even higher.
I would love for Smith to get traded to a team where he could secure starting at-bats. He made a push to his minor league resume with his CTBA (.376) while continuing to push his average hit rate (1.860) to an area where 30 home runs should be expected with a full season of playing time. Over seven seasons in the minors, he hit .295 with 46 home runs, 358 RBI, and 15 stolen bases over 2,377 at-bats. After hitting over .300 at High A (.305), AA (.302), and AAA (.330) from 2015 to 2017, Smith struggled to find his rhythm and role between AAA and the majors. Last year he flashed power off the bench in May and June (eight HRs over 95 at-bats), but he only drove in ten runs over this span. His strikeout rate (22.3) was much improved (28.9 over his first 332 plate appearances) while pushing his walk rate (9.6) into a winning area. Smith missed most of the second half with a left foot injury. Getting close to a 25/90 player with help in batting average, but he has no path to a fulltime job for the Mets.
After signing Lowrie to a two-year $20 million, he only saw seven hitless at-bats in 2019 after suffering a left knee injury a six-weeks after inking his contract. By the middle of May, Lowrie was back on the shelf with a hamstring issue. His season ended in August calf injury. Lowrie had the best season of his 11-year career in 2018. He set career-highs in HRs (23) and RBI (99). His CTBA (.340) improved in each of his last three seasons played while posting a career-best RBI rate (19). His walk rate (11.5) gives him top of the order ability with regression in his strikeout rate (18.8 – 16.6 in his career). Lowrie hit the ground running in April of 2018 (.339 with six HRs and 27 RBI over 115 at-bats). Over the last five months of the year, he only hit .249 with 65 runs, 17 home runs, and 72 RBI over 481 at-bats. His best success came against righties (.273 with 19 HRs and 69 RBI over 407 at-bats) while offering some production vs. left-handed batters (.254 with four HRs and 30 RBI over 189 at-bats). Lowrie has a fly ball swing path (43.4) with a less than impressive HR/FB rate (11.3 – 7.2 in his career). The structure of the Mets’ offense has changed a lot in a year, which forced him more into a bench role unless they trade him away.
Nimmo continued to flash and tease while ending up failing to meet expectations in the majors. His walk rate (18.1 in 2019 and 15.2 in the majors) screams top of the order opportunity, but he still whiffs like a champ (28.0). Nimmo struggled over the first seven weeks of the year (.200 with three HRs and 14 RBI over 161 at-bats). His failure may have been tied to a neck issue that cost him over three months of the season. He did look much better in September (.261 with five HRs and 15 RBI over 69 at-bats). Over nine seasons in the minors, Nimmo hit .279 with 41 home runs, 250 RBI, and 41 stolen bases over 2,174 at-bats. On paper, he does look like the best option to start in centerfield, while a hot start could lead to the first slot in the batting order. His ADP is 392 in the early draft season.
Other Options
Rene Rivera (C) will compete for the backup catching job for the Mets. Over his 11 years in the majors, he hit .221 with 41 HRs and 167 RBI over 1,419 at-bats. Last year he spent most his time at AAA (.254 with 25 HRs and 73 RBI over 355 at-bats).
Luis Guillorme (IF) has two stints in the majors over the last two seasons, which led to a .227 batting average with one home run, eight RBI, and one stolen base over 128 at-bats. Over seven seasons in the minors, he hit .289 with 12 home runs, 237 RBI, and 44 steals over 2,249 at-bats. His walk rate (10.5) grades well, with a low strikeout rate (12.1). Guillorme will try to earn a utility role at some point in 2020 for the Mets.
Jake Marisnick (OF) worked as a rotational outfielder for the Astros over the past six seasons. He played the best from 2017 to 2019 (.230 with 130 runs, 36 RBI, and 25 SBs over 735 at-bats), which prorates well for 550 at-bats. His inability to earn a starting job comes for a massive strikeout rate (33.1) over this span. A platoon player at best while improving the quality of the bench depth for New York.
Pitching Staff
Over the last two seasons, deGrom has been one of the best pitchers in the game (2.05 ERA and 524 Ks over 421 innings), but he only has 21 wins in 64 starts. His walk rate (1.9) and strikeout rate (11.3) have been almost identical in 2018 and 2019. He extended his 200-inning streak to three years while setting a high floor in strikeouts (239) over this span. His season started with two electric games (no runs over 13 innings with 24 Ks), but deGrom had three disaster starts over his next seven games (5.31 ERA). Over his final 23 starts, he allowed two runs or fewer in 21 games, leading to a 1.89 ERA and 188 strikeouts over 152 innings. His season ended with 21 shutout innings with 24 strikeouts. deGrom dominated both right-handed (.202 BAA) and left-handed (.213) batters. His AFB (97.2) was a career-high with improvement in each of the previous three years. He has three elite pitches (four-seam – .219 BAA, slider – .185 BAA, and changeup – .185 BAA). Last year he went 2-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 70 strikeouts over 50.1 innings against Washington and Atlanta. His ADP (8) puts in the first round in just about every draft in 2020. Possible career-high in wins with a sub 2.25 ERA and a run at 300 strikeouts.
Update: Syndergaard underwent successful Tommy John surgery. He is out for the 2020 season.
Despite the strength and repeated value in his walk rate (2.3) and strikeout rate (9.2), Syndergaard allowed the most runs (94) in the National League while being easier to hit (.256 – .244 in his career). His season started with a poor April (6.35 ERA). Over his next 19 starts, he had a 3.00 ERA and 117 Ks over 126 innings while delivering one disaster game (six runs and 11 base runners over 5.1 innings). A blow-up game on August 28th (nine runs, ten base runners, and three home runs over three innings), followed by struggles over his final five starts (6.18 ERA, 1.554 WHIP, and six home runs over 27.2 innings) ruined any midseason gains. Syndergaard had a weakness against lefties (.265 with 13 HRs over 351 at-bats). His AFB (98.1) remains elite, while all three of his secondary pitches created an edge (changeup – .215 BAA, .207 BAA, and curveball – .188 BAA). He continues to get a high number of ground balls (48.0 percent – 49.1 in his career). On the verge of greatness based on his command and his off-speed pitches. It all comes down to the location of his fastball while building off his improved first-pitch strike rate (66) in 2020. More of a front runner arm (6.34 ERA in his eight losses) while needing to visit Oz to get more heart in his game. Go big or go home arm with an ADP of 71 in late January. Look for a significant rebound in his ERA with a run at 225 strikeouts.
Stroman finished with help in ERA (3.22), but his ride in 2019 wasn’t that easy. After success in April (1.43 ERA, .197 BAA, and 36 Ks over 37.2 innings). He looked on the verge of disaster over his next eight starts (4.91 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, .299 BAA, and seven HRs over 44 innings). Stroman posted a 3.16 ERA over his final 18 starts covering 102.2 innings with 96 strikeouts. His risk came against left-handed batters (.291 BAA). He had a spike in his strikeout rate (9.1) with the Mets while finishing with a career-high (7.8). His AFB (93.4) is about league average, but batters hit .315 against his sinker (.315 BAA). He also struggled with his cutter (.295 BAA) while his slider (.168 BAA) and low-volume changeup (.167 BAA) kept him in the game. Stroman came into 2019 with one of the higher ground ball rates (over 60 percent), but that number slid to 53.7 percent. Tweener arm with an ADP of 214. The move to the NL East should be positive, but he needs his fastball to gain value. I’ll let you make take this dance.
Over the past two seasons, Matz made 60 starts with mixed results. He pitched well in April (3.68 ERA), May (3.38 ERA), July (1.80 ERA), and August (3.21 ERA) while getting torched over 11 starts in June and September (5.14 ERA, 62 Ks, and 12 HRs over 63 innings). Hidden in his stats was excellent success at home (8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 92 Ks over 89.2 innings) with no value on the road (6.62 ERA). He allowed 22 of his 27 home runs to righties with less value against left-handed batters (.270). His AFB (93.6) trending down while offering only one pitch of value (curveball – .216 BAA). Matz improved his walk rate (2.9), but home runs (1.5 per nine) remains a problem. He needs to improve his first strike rate (56) and his control within the strike zone. Tough to trust with a backend starting pitching ADP (293). At best, a 3.75 ERA with a push up in strikeouts.
Over five seasons with the Red Sox, Porcello picked a cool $94.5 million while going 73-55 with a 4.43 ERA and 852 strikeouts over 964 innings. On the positive side, he did help them win a World Series in 2018. His best season came in 2016 (22-4 with 3.15 ERA and 189 Ks over 223 innings). In 2019, Porcello struggled to get batters out (5.52 ERA and .278 BAA) with a significant step back in his strikeout rate (7.4 – 8.9 in 2018). Home runs have been a problem over the last three seasons (38, 27, and 31 – 1.5 per nine). After two bad starts (16 runs and 23 baserunners over 7.1 innings) on the road to start the year, he looked sharp over his next eight contests (3.10 ERA and 39 Ks over 49.1 innings). From May 27th to September 8th, Porcello gave up four runs or more in 11 of his 21 games, leading to a 6.62 ERA, 1.530 WHIP, and 20 home runs over 100.2 innings. Somehow he regained his form over his final 17 innings (2.65 ERA and 20 Ks). His arm had no edge over righties (.273) or lefties (.284). He had the lowest fastball (91.3 MPH) of his career with batters hitting .301 vs. his sinker and .280 against his four-seamer. Both his slider (.233 BAA) and curveball (.233 BAA) had an advantage. When at his best, Porcello learned to use his four-seam fastball up in the strike zone while offering a better changeup. He’ll start the season at age 31, needing 151 wins to reach 300. Hit or miss inning eater with a declining skill set makes him more of a gamble even with his ADP (439). A move to the NL should help, but a fantasy owner needs to keep him on a short leash.
The lack of success by Wacha continues to baffle me. He came to pro ball with pedigree (first-round draft pick in 2012) with a quick trip to the majors after pitching well in the minors (2.59 ERA and 122 Ks over 114.2 innings). From age 21 to 23, Wacha went 26-14 with a 3.21 ERA and 312 strikeouts over 353 innings for the Cardinals. Since then, his walk rate (3.3) regressed every year (2.9, 3.0, 3.8, and 3.9) while his strikeout rate fell to 7.4 in 2019. After showing a rebound in value over a half-season in 2018 (3.20 ERA), Wacha frustrated himself, St. Louis, fans, and fantasy owners last season (4.76 ERA, 1.563 WHIP, 1.8 HR/9, .290 BAA, and 3.9 BB/9). There was misery behind just about every door, which points to a wiring problem and a lack of confidence. Right-handed batters hit .309 with 18 home runs over 304 at-bats. He did allow two runs or fewer in ten of his 24 starts. His AFB (93.4) is more than two MPH lower than 2017 while still offering a professional changeup (.201 BAA in 2019 and .205 in his career). Without throwing more strikes and regaining some zip on his fastball, Wacha looks like a player to avoid in 2020. He needs better mechanics and someone to direct him out of his darkness.
After a breakthrough season in 2017 in college (11-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 140 Ks over 100.1 innings), the Mets drafted Peterson with 20th overall pick in 2017. His arm had no problem with A Ball in 2018 (1.82 ERA and 57 Ks over 59.1 innings), but he did look overmatched at High A in 2018 (4.33 ERA and 1.354 WHIP) and AA in 2019 (4.19 ERA and 1.345 WHIP). Overall, Peterson maintained value in both his walk rate (2.5) and strikeout rate (8.8) in the minors while showing more strikeout ability in 2019 (9.5). New York should push him to AAA this year, but he does need another swing and miss pitch with better control in the strike zone. Peterson features a low 90s fastball with an upside slider that creates a high number of ground balls (over 65 percent in 2018 and about 53 percent in 2019).
The theme for Diaz in 2019 was death by disaster. He came into last year with exceptional success in 2018 (1.96 ERA, 124 Ks, and 57 SVs over 73.1 innings), pushing his career stats to even lower levels (2.64 ERA, 301 Ks, and 109 SVs over 191 innings). Diaz was a top tier closer drafted last year. There was no sign of trouble over his first 24 games (1.64 ERA, 35 Ks, and 13 SVs over 22 innings). After his second blown save on May 29th (four runs, six baserunners, and two home runs over one-third of an inning), he had three more disaster games (12 runs and 14 baserunners over 2.2 innings) in his next 11 appearances. From July 28th to the end of the season, Diaz had the most issues with home runs (eight over 18.2 innings), which led to a 7.23 ERA. His strikeout rate (15.4) was a career-high while having regression in his walk rate (3.4 – 2-1 in 2018). Most of his downside came against right-handed batters (.299 with ten HRs over 137 at-bats). Baserunners also had 11 successful steal attempts on the year (21-for-25 before 2019). His AFB (97.8) fell in a range with his success in the majors. Diaz had an untouchable slider in 2018 (.121 BAA), but that pitch killed him in 2019 (.297 with six home runs over 74 at-bats). His four-seam fastball (.237 BAA and nine HRs) was also weaker than 2018 (.188 with two HRs). With an ADP of 120, Diaz will be a target for the wise guy fantasy owners in 2020 who are willing to give him a pass for his unforeseen train wreck. Possible 40-saves with an edge in ERA and strikeouts. Just a thought here, sometimes a rise in walks and more home runs off sliders can be a sign of an elbow issue. There wasn’t a change in velocity with his slider from 2018 to 2019, so Diaz hopefully doesn’t have an underlying problem.
Betances started last year with a right shoulder injury that required a cortisone shot in mid-April. After some rehab and long tossing, he made it back to the mound in late May. Unfortunately, Betances had a setback than was deemed a lat issue. He worked his way back to the majors on September 16th (struck out both of the batters he faced) but walked off the field with a left Achilles injury. In the end, Betances didn’t have any surgeries to correct his 2019 injuries. The days of Betances, being a workhorse reliever, appear to be over. In 2014 and 2015, he averages 1.2 innings per game while seeing that number fall to one inning per game over the last three seasons. In 2018, he had almost the identical season like 2016 in walks (3.5 per nine), strikeouts (15.5 per nine), and batting average against (.201 and .186). Even with bouts of greatness (two runs and nine hits over 33.1 innings with 57 Ks), Betances can fall off the cliff soon after (4.15 ERA over his next 17.1 innings with 28 Ks). He pitched well vs. both righties (.175 BAA) and lefties (.200 BAA), but base stealer did pick up 11 steals when facing RH batters over 137 at-bats. His AFB (97.8) remains one of the best in the game. In 2018, batters only hit .134 against his curveball with regression vs. his four-seam fastball (.252 BAA). Great bullpen arm with the talent to close, but his 2019 injuries do invite questions about the health of his right shoulder. With an ADP of 341, Betances makes a lot of sense as a handcuff to Edwin Diaz.
After a down season in 2017 as a starter for the Mets (7-5 with a 4.71 ERA and 85 Ks over 101.1 innings), Lugo developed into an elite bullpen arm over the past two seasons (10-8 with a 2.68 ERA, 207 Ks, and nine saves over 181.1 innings). Last year he set career bests in both his walk rate (1.8) and strikeout rate (11.7). Batters only hit .192 against him with his best value coming against lefties (.167). Surprisingly, his ride wasn’t as smooth as his final stats suggest. Lugo had an ERA over 4.00 in April (4.08), June (4.85), and August (4.05) while being dominated over the other three months combined (three runs over 36 innings with 44 Ks and three saves). His AFB (94.8) was much better in the bullpen (92.0 in 2017). Lugo threw four-plus pitches (four-seam – 1.46 BAA, sinker – 1.69 BAA, changeup – .214 BAA, and curveball – .214 BAA). A tempting bullpen arm that is developing into a closer-worthy option. The Mets have worked him hard over the previous two seasons, which is sometimes tough to repeat for a third year. In 2017, he did have a right elbow issue, which has never been addressed.
