Miami Marlins
Over the last two seasons, the Marlins drew only 811,104 and 811,302 fans while finishing in last place in the NL East both years (63-98 and 57-105). They’ve missed the playoffs over the previous 16 seasons, which came after picking up two World Series titles (1997 and 2003) in the team first 11 years in baseball. Miami doesn’t have any other postseason appearances in the team’s 27-year history.
In 2020, the Marlins made some changes to the dimensions of their ballpark. Their field will now have a synthetic turf instead of natural grass while the fences in centerfield and right centerfield have been moved in by 12 feet.
Miami ranked second to last in the majors in runs (615), last in home runs (149), and 29th in RBI (593), which was an improvement over the 2018 season (589/128/554). They finished 20th in ERA (4.74) with 27 saves.
In the offseason, they traded for 2B/SS Jonathan Villar to add speed to the top of the batting order. The Marlins signed OF Corey Dickerson, C Francisco Cervelli, and OF Matt Joyce for veteran depth while also claiming Jesus Aguilar off waivers from Tampa. Miami also took a flier OF Matt Kemp in a minor-league deal.
On the pitching side, the Marlins invested in pair of bullpen arms – RP Brandon Kintzler and RP Yimi Garcia while taking a shot on RP Sterling Sharp in the Rule 5 Draft.
This franchise has been stripped down with the idea of rebuilding within the draft. Once Miami has the foundation of a winning pitching staff and a couple of core batters, they can start adding the missing piece in the free agency market. Unfortunately, 2020 looks like another long season with a boatload of losses.
Villar played in every game last year, which led to career-highs in at-bats (642), runs (111), hits (176), home runs (24), RBI (73). His CTBA (.376) pushed higher for the second year in a row, but his strikeout rate (24.7) has risk with a slightly better than league average walk rate (8.5). Villar also had growth in his AVH (1.653) with a career-high in RBI chances (370). He played the best against righties (.280 with 15 HRs and 48 RBI over 415 at-bats) while holding his own vs. left-handed pitching (.264 with nine HRs and 25 RBI over 227 at-bats). His best play came in August (.333 with seven HRs, 15 RBI, and nine SBs over 105 at-bats), helping him to a productive second half (.291 with 14 HRs, 36 RBI, and 23 SBs over 302 at-bats). Even with a bump in power (24 HRs), Villar ranked 227th in hard-hit rate (37.1) thanks to an improved swing path (fly-ball rate – 31.3 – 24.4 in 2018 and 25.4 in his career). His HR/FB rate (16.7) fell short of his previous three seasons (19.6, 19.0, and 17.9). Last year he finished with the fourth-highest value in SIscore (8.38) with most of his edge coming from the stolen base category (6.70). His success last year supports his ADP (38), but his stats have to drop by 20 percent in runs and RBI with regression expected as well in power in Miami. Only a .250 hitter in 2020 with 90 runs, 18 home runs, 60 RBI, and 40-plus steals or a different version of Victor Robles who gets drafted 30 picks later while playing in a better lineup.
I came into 2019 with the idea of Anderson being a viable back-end third base option in deep leagues. After seven weeks (.227 with seven runs, two HRs, and 12 RBI over 163 at-bats), I struggled to make a case for him going forward while looking for help in the free-agent pool. In one waiver-wire article at this point of the year, I made even made the case of a hot run in 2018 over 82 games (.298 with 50 runs, seven HRs, and 36 RBI over 325 at-bats). Sure enough, Anderson had a correction over his next 41 games (.286 with 28 runs, nine HRs, 28 RBI over 164 at-bats) with follow-through over 36 games after the All-Star break (.293 with 21 runs, nine HRs, and 27 RBI over 140 at-bats). His season ended with five weeks to go due to a broken finger on his left hand. Anderson finished with a league-average approach (strikeout rate – 21.9 and walk rate – 8.5). His AVH (1.972) pushed higher while losing a tick off his CTBA (.348). He needs improvement against lefties (.232 with six HRs and 12 RBI over 112 at-bats). His hard-hit rate (45.7) ranked 48th in baseball. Anderson had a better swing path (ground ball rate – 45.4 and 51.8 in 2018), which led to him almost doubling his rookie season HR/FB rate (16.3 – 8.3 in 2018). With an ADP of 246, he looks poised to become a .275 hitter with an 80/25/85/5 skill set.
Four games into the 2019 season, Dickerson landed on the injured list for nine weeks with a right shoulder injury. His bat was well worth the wait over his next 74 games (.313 with 32 runs, 11 HRs, and 57 RBI over 247 at-bats), but he ended the year with 19 more missed games with a broken left foot. Despite 12 home runs in a half year of playing time, Dickerson had a rebound in his AVH (1.861) and a massive RBI rate (25). His CTBA (.387) beat his 2017 season (.381). Even with success last year, Dickerson didn’t have over 90 at-bats in any month while not being dead in the water against left-handed pitching (.271 with three HRs and 15 RBI over 59 at-bats). His HR/FB rate (15.0) came below his top two seasons (19.5 and 17.2). He ranked 277th in hard-hit rate (34.8). Better than a platoon hitter, but we need to see Miami commit to him against lefties. My early thought is 500 at-bats with a .280 BA with 70 runs, 25 home runs, and 75 RBI.
Before 2017, Aguilar struggled to make an impact in the Indians’ system leading to three stalled years at AAA. His quest for the majors led to him trading batting average (.304) in 2014 at AAA for home runs in 2016 (30). Overall at AAA, he hit .271 over 1,452 at-bats with 68 HRs and 262 RBI. The Brewers used him off the bench in 2017, which led to a lovely season (16 HRs and 52 RBI) for his short at-bats (279). In 2018, an early-season injury to Marcus Thames led to a starting opportunity with the Brewers, and a breakthrough year (.274 with 35 HRs and 108 RBI). Last season Milwaukee gave Aguilar almost seven weeks to reprove himself, but he only hit .202 with 12 runs, three home runs, and 21 RBI over 124 at-bats. In a rotational role over the next third of the season, his bat improved (.255 with 14 runs, five HRs, and 13 RBI over 98 at-bats). Aguilar never was able to seize a full-time even after a trade to Tampa (.261 with 13 runs, four HRs, and 16 RBI over 92 at-bats). His CTBA (.318) was well below his previous two seasons (.400 and .387) with a lousy step back in his AVH (1.649 – 1.963 in 2018). Even with regression in play, Aguilar did have an improvement in his approach (strikeout rate – 22.0 and walk rate – 11.7). His HR/FB rate (13.2) came in well below 2017 (22.5) and 2018 (23.8). Overall, his resume is short of success, but he still looks good enough to win the starting first base job for Miami. Viable DH option in deep leagues with an ADP of 353. Aguilar has 30-plus home run upside with a rebound in his thought process and confidence.
The Reds lost Kemp 20 games into 2019 due to a broken rib. After being released in early May, the Mets picked up him up, but he wasn’t healthy. Miami signed Kemp to a minor league deal in December. Here’s how he looked going into the 2019 season: Other than struggling with runs (eight) in May and batting average (.220) in June, Kemp was a very good late draft pick in 2018 from the start of the year until July 23rd (.318 with 47 runs, 17 HRs, and 63 RBI over 314 at-bats). He slumped over the next month (.137 with one HR and six RBI over 73 at-bats), leading to lost playing time and a semi bench role over the last 40 days of the season (.320 with three HRs and 16 RBI over 75 at-bats). Kemp played well against right-handed pitching (.301 with ten HRs and 53 RBI over 279 at-bats) while being very productive vs. lefties (.273 with 11 HRs and 32 RBI over 183 at-bats). Both his strikeout rate (22.7) and walk rate (7.1) fell in his with his career path. Kemp had a healthy line drive rate (26.8) with a rise in his fly-ball rate (38.1), but he did lose some value in his HR/FB rate (15.6 – 19.8 in 2017 and 16.6 in his career). This season he’ll try to reinvent his career in Miami. Kemp has a long resume of success with a proven middle of the order bat. Possible value player if the spring reports about his playing time are favorable.
With no power in his early minor league swing, Ramirez needed to repeat AA for three straight years (.298 with 19 HRs, 173 RBI, and 28 SBs over 1,290 at-bats). Last year his bat looked improved at AAA (.355 with four HRs and 14 RBI over 110 at-bats), which led to his first experience in the majors. Overall in 2019, he hit .292 with 73 runs, 15 home runs, and 64 RBI over 531 at-bats. Ramirez had a low walk rate (4.0) with Miami while keeping his strikeout rate (20.4) around the league average. His CTBA (.352) showed more life in the minors while maintaining a pulse in his AVH (1.509). He did struggle with lefties (.263 with two HRs and 11 RBI over 118 at-bats). With a low hard-hit rate (34.7) added to the equation, Ramirez doesn’t look viable as a starting outfielder in the fantasy market in 2020. Look for help in batting average and possibly runs if he somehow earns an everyday job while owning some underlying speed. Ramirez isn’t a lock to win a starting job.
Alfaro played well over his first 46 games (.282 with 21 runs, nine HRs, and 25 RBI over 163 at-bats), but he failed to repeat over his final 84 contests (.250 with 23 runs, nine HRs, and 32 RBI over 268 at-bats). His approach is a mess (strikeout rate – 33.1 and walk rate – 4.7) while almost matching early major league resume. Alfaro continues to have a high CTBA (.408) with a slight bump in his AVH (1.619). He walked only three times in 112 at-bats vs. left-handed pitching, but his bat did have more success (.286 with six HRs and 20 RBI). Over eight seasons in the minors, Alfaro hit .262 with 74 home runs, 360 RBI, and 39 stolen bases over 2,416 at-bats. Only a 50/15/50 player with batting average risk. His ADP (211) makes him a C2 option. Growth starts when he makes better contact.
After playing at a high level at AAA (.305 with 89 runs, 26 HRs, 70 RBI, and five SBs over 377 at-bats), Miami awarded Diaz with about a third of a season in the majors. His success in the minors didn’t translate well, which led to a high strikeout rate (29.4) with emptiness in his CTBA (.258). On the positive side, Diaz performed well with runners on base (RBI rate – 19) while maintaining strength in his AVH (1.774). He only had four hits in 40 at-bats against left-handed pitching with 14 strikeouts. Over six seasons in the minors, Diaz hit .263 with 88 home runs, 327 RBI, and 57 steals over 2,152 at-bats with a top of the order walk rate (12.3) and weakness in his strikeout rate (24.9). In 2020, he’ll try to build off his AAA success with the hopes of earning a platoon role at the very least. Future 30 home run upside with some speed, but he needs more time to develop in the majors.
Berti gave the Marlins some good at-bats off the bench 2019 (.273 with six HRs, 24 RBI, and 17 SBs over 256 at-bats), but his minor league resume (.258 with 35 HRs, 296 RBI, and 270 SBs over 3,007 at-bats) doesn’t paint a high upside picture. Early in the minors, he brought a speed skillset with a reasonable approach. Berti struggled over five different seasons at AAA (.222 with 77 runs, ten HRs, 47 RBI, and 42 SBs over 514 at-bats). With Miami, his CTBA (.383) was his best of his career while having s high strikeout rate (25.4). This year he’ll try to earn a utility role with his best asset being his speed.
The Rangers drafted Brinson out of high school in the 1st round (29th) in the 2012 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over his first two seasons in the minor, he flashed power (28 HRs) and speed (38 SBs) over 684 at-bats, but Lewis did strikeout 265 times (34.5 percent). He cleaned up his strikeout rate (23.6 percent) over his last five years in the minors while having just above a league average walk rate (8.4). Brinson had over 450 at-bats for the first time between AAA (296) and the majors (226) for the first time in 2019. His game improved in his five seasons at AAA (.313 with 34 HRs, 131 RBI, and 34 SBs over 741 at-bats). He continued to look overmatched in the majors (.183 over 655 at-bats with 13 HRs, 60 RBI, and four SBs). With Miami, his strikeout rate (29.8) remains too high. In 2019, Brinson didn’t hit a home run in the majors over 226 at-bats with only 15 runs and 15 RBI. This candle doesn’t have a flicker at this point in his career. Nothing more than a desperation option for a fantasy team.
Sierra made the jump from AA to the majors in 2017, but his game wasn’t ready to make an impact in Miami’s starting lineup. Magneuris has a Judy-like skill set, but he didn’t have separator steals on his minor league resume. His AVH (1.408) at AAA in 2019 was a career-best. Over seven seasons in the minors, he hit .284 with 20 home runs, 222 RBI, and 145 stolen over 2,603 at-bats. His path paints him as a five HR/30 SB guy with more steals when/if he learns to improve his success rate (70.7). His walk rate (5.7) isn’t strong enough to hit at the top of the batting order, while his strikeout rate (17.4) is a bit high for his empty power. His swing will produce a high volume of ground balls with a minuscule HR/FB rate. Sierra is a great defender while his hitting talents will improve quickly with added bulk and strength. He now has over a year’s worth of experience at AAA (.265 with eight HRs, 38 RBI, and 40 SBs over 682 at-bats). Only a defensive type replacement at this point in his career. With the Marlins over three different years, Sierra hit .247 with no home runs, 13 RBI, and eight steals over 247 at-bats.
Other Options
Francisco Cervelli (C) had a breakthrough year in 2018 (.259 with 12 HRs and 57 RBI over 332 at-bats), but he struggled to stay healthy in 2019 while battling chest, concussion, and quad issues. Cervelli hit .213 in 2019 with three home runs and 12 RBI over 141 at-bats. This year he’ll compete for at-bats off the bench for Miami.
Garrett Cooper (1B) had a weak power-hitting resume over six seasons in the minors (.304 with 46 HRs, 274 RBI, and five SBs over 1,627 at-bats) for a first baseman. His swing did make a step forward at AAA in 2017 (.366 over 17 HRs and 82 RBI over 279 at-bats), but he missed most of the 2018 season. Last year Cooper played well for the Marlins (.281 with 15 HRs, and 50 RBI over 381 at-bats). A left-hard injury cost him most of April, plus he sat out the final two weeks of the year with a knee issue. His strikeout rate (26.1) had a weakness with growth in his AVH (1.59). In a battle with Jesus Aguilar for at-bats at first base.
Miguel Rojas (SS) improved his play over the past two seasons for Miami (.268 with 16 HRs, 99 RBI, and 15 SBs over 971 at-bats). His strikeout rate (11.8) remains low with a shallow walk rate (6.1). Over 12 seasons in the minors, he hit .245 with 21 home runs, 224 RBI, and 78 stolen bases over 2,633 at-bats. The change in team structure in 2020 pushed Rojas into a backup role.
Pitching Staff
Based on batting average against (.223) and strikeout rate (9.9), Smith had the look of a much better pitcher in 2019. His WHIP (1.226) didn’t match his ERA (4.52). He led the National League in home runs allowed (33 – 1.9 per nine). Smith still has a high walk rate (3.5) even with some improvement. Over his first 16 starts, he posted a 3.30 ERA, .193 BAA, and 110 strikeouts over 90 innings while missing most of June with a hip injury. Smith allowed four runs or more in eight of his final 12 starts, leading to a 6.25 ERA and 17 home runs over 63.1 innings. Even with success against right-handed batters (.227), he gave up 29 home runs to them over 440 at-bats. His AFB (91.8) was well below 2018 (93.3). Batters hit .210 against his four-seamer while offering a slider (.224 BAA) of value. He lost the feel of his changeup (.257 BAA). Over the last two seasons, Smith pitched up in the strike zone (fly ball rate – 52 and 50.8 in 2018). His ADP (227) places him as the 92nd pitcher off the board. There is plenty of intrigue with more value strikeouts with a full season of starts. Many fantasy owners will focus on the good innings while his dark side may be the force that drives him in 2020. Real coin flip for me as his sliding fastball disappears over the fence too many times to ignore. Here are some stats to think about: Smith allowed seven home runs on the first pitch, 11 home runs when trailing 1-0 in the count, and 15 home runs when ahead 0-1 in the count.
Alcantara ended up being a liability for fantasy teams in 2019, thanks to a low number of wins (6) and WHIP risk (1.318). He finished with 151 strikeouts, but his strikeout rate (6.9) came in short. Alcantara allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of his 32 starts. His downside came from disaster games (24 runs and 40 baserunners over 21.2 innings). He struggled more against lefties (.253 with 16 home runs over 403 at-bats). Alcantara has plus fastball (95.9) while offering three pitches of value (four-seam – .239, sinker – .233, and slider – .232 BAA). He also has a changeup (.274 BAA) with upside. Over five seasons in the minors, Alcantara went 23-32 with a 3.94 ERA and 461 strikeouts over 496 innings. His biggest obstacle remains his command (walk rate – 3.7). This season he should make a massive step forward. Pencil him in for 200-plus innings with a push toward 175 strikeouts and growth in his ERA and WHIP. His ADP is 260 in the early draft season.
Lopez took a major pasting on May 10th (ten runs and 12 baserunners over three innings), which led to a big hole in his ERA and WHIP to start the year. Over his first 14 starts, he had 4.23 ERA and 73 strikeouts over 76.2 innings (3.17 ERA without his lousy start). Lopez missed ten weeks with a right shoulder issue. When he returned in late August, Lopez didn’t look the same over his final seven starts (7.01 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, and seven home runs over 34.2 innings). His arm had significant issues with lefties (.303 with nine HRs over 218 at-bats) as well as on the road (7.36 ERA). He had growth in his fastball (94.0), but it lacked value (four-seam – .279 BAA and sinker – .307 BAA). Both his changeup (.226 BAA) and curveball (.210 BAA) offered an edge. Over his six seasons in the minors, Lopez had a 3.14 ERA and 323 strikeouts over 410.1 innings. His walk rate (2.2) had growth with a slight uptick in his strikeout rate (7.7). The key here is the growth in command of his fastball in the strike zone. With a clean report on his shoulder in spring training, Lopez should push toward a 3.50 ERA and 150-plus strikeouts.
Despite never pitching an inning at AAA, Yamamoto made the jump to the majors with success. Over his first six starts with Miami, he went 4-0 with 1.59 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 34 innings. Yamamoto lost his way over his next seven starts (8.13 ERA) due to 11 home runs over 34.1 innings. Over the last five weeks of the season, he made on two starts (two runs over 10.1 innings with 13 Ks) while missing time a right forearm issue. His stuff played better against lefties (.152 BAA). Yamamoto finished with risk in his walk rate (4.1) and home runs allowed (1.3 per nine) with a respectable strikeout rate (9.4). His AFB (91.9) is below the league average, but batters only hit .174 vs. his four-seamer. He had success with his slider (.089 BAA), cutter (.231 BAA), and low-volume changeup (.182 BAA). Over six seasons in the minors, Yamamoto posted a 3.75 ERA and 495 strikeouts over 463 innings while offering better command (walk rate – 2.6 and strikeout rate – 9.6). With no experience at AAA, he may need more time to develop. The sums of his parts suggest upside. Decent back-end flier with an ADP of 430. At age 23, with 144 innings under his belt, Yamamoto should be ready to pitch a full season of starts in the majors. Fantasy owners can’t lose sight of his forearm issue as it could develop in an elbow issue.
Hernandez is another Marlin arm that had minimal innings of experience at AAA (3-1 with 1.95 ERA and 71 Ks over 50.2 innings). Miami called him up on May 28th, which led to 15 starts and six relief appearances. He looked serviceable over his first eight games (4.11 ERA and 36 Ks over 30.2 innings). Over his next seven games, Hernandez served up nine home runs over 22.2 innings, leading to 7.15 ERA. His season ended on the uptick (one run over five innings with nine strikeouts), with a rebound in value final six starts (4.34 ERA and 30 Ks over 29.0 innings). Even with success in his walk rate (2.8) and strikeout rate (9.3) with Miami, Hernandez finished with an underwhelming ERA (5.03) due to failure in home runs allowed (20 over 82.1 innings – 2.2 per nine). His biggest issue came against lefties (.260 with 11 HRs, and 17 walks over 146 at-bats). He pitches up in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 49.1), with disaster in his HR/FB rate (17.9). His AFB (91.0) is short with 2019 struggles (four-seam – .298 BAA) while offering a plus slider (.152 BAA) and an upside changeup (.178 BAA). Over eight seasons in the minors, Hernandez went 28-25 with a 3.15 ERA and 470 strikeouts over 451 innings. Developing arm with a chance at a sub 4.00 ERA and plenty of strikeouts if he corrects his disaster outing and home runs allowed.
Sanchez pitched great in 2019 at AA (8-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 97 Ks over 103 innings), which came after two shaky starts at High A (4.91 ERA). His 2019 season didn’t start until May due to Miami trying to limit his exposure in innings. In his 18 starts at AA, Sanchez allowed three runs or fewer in every start except one disaster showing (eight runs, ten baserunners, and three home runs over 3.2 innings). His walk rate (1.7) remains elite with a below-par strikeout rate (7.9). Over five seasons in the minors, Sanchez has a 2.58 ERA and 294 strikeouts over 335.1 innings. His fastball has triple-digit upside with an exceptional swing and miss slider while developing a changeup that projects as an asset. This year he’ll start the year at AAA with a chance to push his innings to the 140 to 150 area. If Miami were ready to win, Sanchez would be in the major early in the year. Future ace who will come quickly. His foundation in command puts him in the majors by June. His ADP (516) prices him as a free agent option in shallow leagues. Think Shane Bieber as far as a command with more life at the top end with his fastball.
Dugger pitched well in 2017 (2.75 ERA) and 2018 (3.40) while pitching 268.1 combined innings with 257 strikeouts. His arm wasn’t ready at AAA (7.59 ERA and 49 Ks over 53.1 innings) with more failure in his seven starts in the majors (5.77 ERA and 25 Ks over 34.1 innings). Over four seasons in the minors, Dugger went 26-24 with a 3.84 ERA and 417 strikeouts over 431.1 innings. His walk rate (2.6) and strikeout rate (8.7) are favorable. He has weakness in his fastball (90.5) while throwing his slider as his best pitch. Dugger needs to prove his worth at AAA before even being considered as a major league arm.
Neidert pitched poorly over his first three starts at AAA (8.71 ERA) before landing on the injured list for two and half of months with a right knee issue. After building up his arm again at rookie ball and High A in July, he looked better but not great over his final six starts at AAA (3.82 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, and 30 Ks over 30.2 innings). Over his first four seasons in the minors, Nick went 30-12 with a 3.01 ERA and 368 strikeouts over 406.2 innings. He has a low walk rate (2.0) while his strikeout rate (8.1) showed more life in 2017 (9.4) and 2018 (9.1). His fastball sits in the low 90s with his changeup offering the most upside. Neidert continues to work on his slider, which will give him more K-ability going forward. His strike-throwing ability puts him on the fast track to the majors. More of a back-end starter unless he adds more zip to his fastball and life in his secondary pitches.
Urena didn’t get it done in 2019, which came after going 23-19 with a 3.90 ERA and 243 strikeouts over his previous 343.2 innings. He had three disaster games (15 runs and 29 baserunners over 13.2 innings with ten Ks) to start 2019. Urena pitched great over his next nine starts (2.95 ERA and 39 Ks over 58 innings). After a poor showing on June 7th (six runs and 12 baserunners over three innings), he landed on the injured list for 12 weeks with a back injury (herniated disk). Miami moved him into the closer role in September, but his arm had too many blow-up games (9.00 ERA and 1.700 WHIP over ten innings with 11 Ks). Urena converted three of his five save chances. His AFB (95.3) has much more life than his career strikeout rate (6.1) shows. When at his best in 2017 and 2018, he flashed two winning secondary pitches (slider and changeup). The key for him keeping a closer job will be solving left-handed batters (2017 – .237 with 11 HRs, 33 walks, and 38 Ks over 300 at-bats and 2018 – .255 with 14 HRs, 25 walks, and 63 Ks over 353 at-bats). His ADP (554) looks almost like a layup if he does indeed earn the closing job. I’d like to see more strikes thrown (walk rate – 3.1 in his career and 2.8 in 2019), and fewer home runs allowed (1.2 per nine in his career) before pushing all in as closing arm. Right kind of flier for saves as his fastball and combination of secondary pitches will play better over short innings.
Stanek had a unique pitching role in 2018 and 2019. He made 56 starts for Tampa, but he never pitched more than two innings in any game. His opportunity for wins was zero when starting making worthless in most fantasy formats. His strikeout rate (11.0) came in strong in 2018 with some regression in 2019 (10.4). Stanek pitched the best over his first 29 games (2.54 ERA and 43 Ks over 39 innings). He almost looked burnt out over his final 38 innings (5.45 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and eight home runs over 38 innings), with much of the damage coming for Miami (5.48 ERA). With the Marlins, Stanek walked eight batters per nine innings. His AFB (97.9) has closing upside, but his walk rate (4.3) in his major league career remains a significant obstacle. He has a plus split-finger fastball (.097 BAA) while losing the feel for his slider (.260 BAA). Miami should use him in a more traditional role in 2020, but Stanek still needs better mechanics to improve his control.
Brigham was a slow mover early in his career in the minors due to a high walk rate (3.8 over 264 innings). His arm showed life in 2018 between AA and AAA (10-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 94 Ks over 95.1 innings) while working as an older player at each level. In 2019, Miami moved him to the bullpen at AAA, which led to growth in his strikeout rate (11.3) and better success (1.50 ERA and 30 Ks over 24 innings). After a promotion to the Marlins, Brigham battled disaster in five of his first 16 games (6.97 ERA, 1.645 WHIP, and six home runs over 20.2 innings). Over his final 17.2 innings, he posted a 1.53 ERA, .186 BAA, and 13 Ks). His AFB (96.9) graded well in velocity, but not in value (four-seam – .347 BAA with seven HRs over 75 at-bats). Brigham does have a plus slider (.145 BAA). In 2020, he’ll be a dark horse for saves while needing more time to refine his new role in the bullpen.
