Atlanta Braves
The Braves worked their way back into the World Series conversation over the last two years, which came after missing the playoffs over the previous four seasons. Since 1991, Atlanta made the postseason 16 times with one World Series title and five trips to championship series. Since 1901, the Braves picked three World Series titles (1914 – Boston Braves, 1957 and 1995) with 25 postseason appearances.
Their growth in 2019 came on the offensive side of the ball. Atlanta finished sixth in runs (901), which was an improvement of 96 runs from 2018 (759). The Braves hit 259 home runs (eighth) with 824 RBI (sixth). Their pitching staff ranks seventh in ERA (3.75) in 2018, but they drifted back to tenth in ERA (4.19), with most teams allowing more runs due to the impact of the home runs hit (6,776 – most in baseball history). Atlanta finished with 44 saves.
In the offseason, the Braves signed OF Marcell Ozuna and C Travis d’Arnaud to help replace the loss of 3B Josh Donaldson. They also added a pair of arms to their pitching staff – SP Cole Hamels and RP Will Smith. Atlanta took a swing on a minor league deal with SP Felix Hernandez.
The direction of the 2020 Braves’ season falls on the success of their young arms – Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Sean Newcomb. Atlanta has four developing starting options as well at the upper levels of the minors – SP Kyle Wright, SP Bryse Wright, SP Touki Toussaint, and SP Ian Anderson. Their bullpen has multiple arms with closing experience, which points to a rotating 9th in 2020.
The core of the Braves’ offense is young and elite (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Freddie Freeman) while possibly lack impact bats at the backend of their starting lineup. OF Marcell Ozuna should help stabilize the cleanup spot, and C Travis d’Arnaud improves the lead catching position. Overall, Atlanta may have some regression in their offense in 2020.
The Braves will be in the hunt again this year. For them to win the World Series, they need one arm to emerge as an edge reliever and two pitchers to develop into aces. The capper would be a batter that comes up with hits in the most significant moments of games.
Acuna finished as the most valuable hitter in 2019 based on SIscore (12.36), which is aided by his five-tool skill set. My first take and surprise on him from last year was his high strikeout rate (26.3). In his short minor league career, he made better contact (21.3 percent). He will take plenty of walks (10.6 percent). Acuna continued to have a high AVH (1.851) and CTBA (.400) with a slight step back in each stat in 2019. His best month came in August (.270 with 11 HRs and 27 RBI over 115 at-bats) with a high output as well in June (.331 with nine HRs, 21 RBI, and six SBs over 124 at-bats). He had a floor of five home runs in each month. Over the second half of year, Acuna hit .263 with 20 home runs, 48 RBI, and 24 stolen bases over 266 at-bats with more regression in his strikeout rate (30.4). His hard-hit rate (46.9) ranked 35th, with more growth in his HR/FB rate (24.8).
The Braves stated that he would start the year hitting first in the batting order, which invites a much lower total of RBI chances. His RBI rate (18) is middle of the order ready. An explosive player with more upside in batting average if/when he makes better contact. Buy his edge in runs with the high floor in power and speed. Acuna will be drafted as the top hitter in 2020 while owning questions with his batting average.
Last year Albies played his second full season in the majors while showing growth in his approach (strikeout rate – 16.0 and walk rate – 7.7). He also pushed his RBI rate (17) and CTBA (.358) higher while setting career-highs in batting average (.295), hits (189), doubles (43), RBI (86), and stolen bases (15). Albies dominated against lefties (.389 with 11 HRs and 33 RBI over 149 at-bats) while shining over the final four months (.312 with 70 runs, 17 HRs, 62 RBI, and 11 SBs). The next generation stat guys may kick his hard-hit rate (33.5 – 309th) while ranking much higher in balls hit 95 MPH or more (178 – 40th). His HR/FB rate (12.4) improved for the third straight year, but it is well below the top home run hitters in the game. Albies has close to a balanced swing while raising his line drive rate (25.5). There’s a lot to like here while hitting between two top players. He has an ADP of 36 in the early draft season. I don’t expect a big jump in power, but his game could surprise in his area. Albies finished 2019 as the 24th rated player in SIscore (4.54), which almost matches his draft value (26th hitter off the table). Next step: .300 BA, 110-plus runs, 25 home runs, 75 RBI, and a push toward 30 steals.
With better talent surrounding him in the starting lineup, Freeman finished 2019 with the best season with the Braves. He set career highs in runs (113), home runs (38), and RBI (121). His RBI rate (22) ranked with the top players in the game, but Freeman actually had regression in his RBI chances (375). His strikeout rate (18.4) was a career-low while having a high floor in his walk rate (12.6). He finished with a similar AVH (1.864) as 2016 (1.882) and 2017 (1.911) with a step back in his CTBA (.374). Most of his damage came against right-handed pitching (.310 with 30 HRs and 97 RBI over 436 at-bats). Even with an excellent season, Freeman did fade after the All-Star break (.274 with 15 HRs and 53 RBI over 241 at-bats), which may be tied to a right below issue that required surgery after the year. He had 199 hits of 95 MPH or more (20th) and 105th in hard-hit rate (42.3). His HR/FB rate (23.6) was a career-best while remaining a line drive type hitter (27.5 percent). High floor player with the skill set to hit over .300 with a 110/35/120/5 skill set. His ADP comes in at 15 in late January.
Ozuna battled a finger injury over the summer that led to about five weeks on the injured list. His season started with 24 runs, ten home runs, and 28 RBI over 100 at-bats in April while hitting .260. Over the first three months of the year, he hit .259 with 20 home runs, 62 RBI, and eight stolen bases over 293 at-bats). The finger injury led to a big step back in value over the final two months (.219 with nine HRs and 27 RBI over 192 at-bats). Ozuna also lost his way against left-handed pitching (.217 with six HRs and 20 RBI over 83 at-bats). His CTBA (.315) made a massive step backward for the second straight year, but he did make a push in his AVH (1.957). Ozuna had the best walk rate (11.3) of his career with a league average walk rate (20.8). In 2017 and 2018, he had top-shelf RBI chances (467 and 434) with follow-through in 2018 (389) if he played a full year. The Braves have elite talent in front of him in the starting lineup with speed at the top of the order. Look for Ozuna to have a rebound in his batting average with a run at career-high in home runs and RBI. His ADP (117) is very attractive, especially if he can chip in with some steals after swiping 12 bags in 2019.
Markakis was on pace for 80 runs, 13 home runs, and 93 RBI if he matched his 2018 total in at-bats (623). He missed seven weeks with a broken left wrist. All of his power came against righties (.298 with nine HRs and 46 RBI over 312 at-bats). Over the first three months, he hit .286 with .286 with eight home runs and 51 RBI over 322 at-bats). Even with a low average hit rate (1.475), Markakis continues to have strength in his RBI rate (18) with over 400 chances in each of his last three full seasons (444, 421, and 471). In 2019, he finished with his best HR/FB rate (9.2) since 2008 (12.6) while still producing a shallow fly-ball rate (27.1). I was surprised to see his hard-hit rate (44.6) ranked 69th in baseball (109th in 2018 and 203rd in 2017). Markakis has an outside chance at 3,000 hits (needs 645 hits at the age of 36). His ADP (536) remains an afterthought in drafts, but he will help in runs, batting average, and RBI. Last year he did appear to get stronger based on his hard-hit rate, which could lead to growth in home runs. A change in swing path would help his power immensely. His downside is a platoon role with Adam Duvall.
After a great start at AAA (.293 with 15 HRs and 41 RBI over 174 at-bats), Riley was the shove all-in guy for some fantasy owners in the high stake’s market after Atlanta called him up in May. At AAA, his walk rate (10.3) and strikeout rate (20.1) showed growth over his previous minor league career (8.0 and 25.9). His bat flashed elite upside over his first 34 games with the Braves (.291 with 29 runs, 12 home runs, and 34 RBI over 134 at-bats). Unfortunately, the league caught up to his swing and miss approach over his final 140 at-bats (.164 with six HRs and 15 RBI) while posting 63 strikeouts (41.4 percent). Riley did miss a month with a right knee injury. He needs to improve against right-handed pitching (.215 with 11 HRs and 34 RBI over 209 at-bats). His walk rate (5.4) and strikeout rate (36.4) with Atlanta came in well below his minor league career. Riley produced a ton of fly balls in 2019 at AAA (45.1 percent) and the majors (48.8) with strength in his HR/FB rate (22.0 and 25.0 at AAA). Over five season in the minors, he hit .283 with 86 home runs, 305 RBI, and eight steals over 1,788 at-bats. A high upside power hitter, but his glove isn’t ideal (but improving), and his approach will need time to develop. With an ADP of 275, I view him as sub .250 hitter early in his career with a chance at 30-plus home runs if he stays in the majors all season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a significant improvement in all areas of his game in 2020.
After missing almost all of 2018 with a right elbow injury that required surgery, d’Arnaud saw minimal playing time last year over the first two months with Tampa (9-for-64 with no home runs and four RBI). The Rays turned to him in June and July, which led to a productive 144 at-bats (.313 with 31 runs, 13 HRs, and 42 RBI). Unfortunately, he struggled to bring the bus home of his final 143 at-bats (.238 with three home runs and 23 RBI). D’Arnaud posted his highest CTBA (.348) while his AVH (1.744) came in just below his best years (2015 – 1.813 and 2017 – 1.812). His RBI rate (22) matched the top players in the game with about a league-average approach (strikeout rate – 21.9 and walk rate – 8.2). He had the best value against lefties (.276 with ten HRs and 27 RBI over 134 at-bats). This season d’Arnaud will split at-bats at catcher for the Braves. His ADP (246) makes him a viable C2 with a chance to outperform his last two full seasons.
Swanson is getting closer to being a trusted backend shortstop option in the fantasy market, but he continues to lack a top of an order opportunity. In 2019, he set career highs in runs (77), hits (121), home runs (17), and RBI (65). His AVH (1.686) made a slight push while his CTBA (.337) is trending upward. Swanson is close to the league average in his strikeout rate (22.8) with a favorable walk rate (9.4). Some injuries in Atlanta last year allowed him to bat second in the batting order for about 57 percent of his at-bats. Almost all of his production came over the first half of the year (.270 with 58 runs, 17 HRs, 57 RBI, and seven SB). A right foot injury cost him about a month of the year while offering no playable value after the All-Star break (.204 with no HRs and eight RBI over 142 at-bats). His HR/FB rate (12.6) was a career-high. This season he may push to 5th or sixth in the batting order if Nick Markakis and Austin Riley fail to produce. Only a 60/15/60/10 player for now while a chance to push higher in batting average. I can’t buy him based on his ADP (295) when adding in Atlanta’s expected lineup structure in 2020.
Flowers is nothing more than a part-time catcher going forward. Last year he had a rebound in his CTBA (.373) while failing to make any progress in his batting average (.229). His strikeout rate (33.9) fell into a disaster area after showing more strength in 2017 (22.2) and 2018 (25.7). Flowers continued to take walks (11.8 percent). His bat improved against righties (.262 with ten HRs and 26 RBI over 187 at-bats), but he lost his way vs. left-handed pitching (.155 with one HR and eight RBI over 85 at-bats). Fading platoon player who may hit his way out of the league in 2020.
Inciarte ended up being a bust in 2019 after playing well in 2018 and 2019. His season started with a boatload of emptiness over the first six weeks (.218 with two HRs and nine RBI over 124 at-bats). He landed on the injured list in mid-May for nine weeks with a back injury. Inciarte looked better over his next 75 at-bats (.293 with 17 runs, three HRs, 15 RBI, and four SBs). He suffered a hamstring on August 16th, costing him the remainder of the year. Inciarte improved his walk rate (11.3) with a step back in his strikeout rate (17.8 – 12.5 in his career). In 2020, he’ll come off the bench as the Braves’ fourth outfielder. Possible 15/30 player with a rebound in his bat and a starting job. For now, only a waiver-wire option or a base stealer in waiting.
After seven light-hitting seasons in the minors (.278 with 15 HRs, 188 RBI, and 22 SBs over 1,915 at-bats), Camargo made a huge step forward in his power swing with Atlanta in 2018. His average hit rate jumped to a career-high (1.683), which led to the most HRs (22 over 497 at-bats between AAA and the majors) of his career. Last year his opportunity came at 50 percent, but he failed to repeat his value in any area. Camargo did lower his strikeout rate (17.3) while almost matching his AVH (1.648). He didn’t have any month with starting at-bats while missing time in September with a broken right shin. Camargo did play well in his brief trip to AAA (.483 over 58 at-bats with two home runs and 15 RB)I. There is a decent bat here, but he’ll start the year as the possible insurance policy for Austin Riley at third base.
In 2018, Duvall had a sharp decline in his CTBA (.281), which crushed his batting average (.195) and eventually his ability to get starting at-bats. Last year he showed a similar skillset at AAA (.266 with 32 home runs and 93 RBI over 369 at-bats) as he did in 2016 and 2017 with the Reds. Atlanta called him up in late July, where Duvall flashed over his first six games (12-for-25 with five HRs and seven RBI). Over his final 95 at-bats with the Braves, he only hit .211 with five home runs and 12 RBI while striking out 32 times. In 2020, Duvall will work as a bench outfielder with possible platoon value against lefties. His swing has 30-plus home run upside if ever given starting at-bats.
Other Options
Alex Jackson (C) smashed 28 home runs with 65 RBI over 306 at-bats at AAA in 2019, but he still offers too much of a swing and miss approach at the plate. His strikeout rate (34.0) came in too high with a low walk rate (5.8). Over six years in the minors, Jackson hit .233 with 76 home runs and 280 RBI over 1,692 at-bats. His defense is trailing, and the signing of Travis d’Arnaud points to another season in the minors. Pretty much a weaker version of Mike Zunino as far as his bat.
Charlie Culberson (IF) signed a minor league deal in 2020, which puts him on the outside looking in for at-bats with Atlanta. Over two seasons with the Braves, he hit .267 with 17 home runs, 65 RBI, and four stolen bases over 431 at-bats.
Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) will be the top utility middle infielder for the Braves this year. In 2019, he did set a career-high in home runs (nine) with only 203 at-bats. Over eight years in the majors, Hechavarria hit .253 with 37 home runs, 271 RBI, and 35 stolen bases over 3,012 at-bats. A boring bat with losing replacement value.
Pitching Staff
A spring training shoulder injury pushed me away from Soroka in the high stakes market. My closing lines in his 2019 profile looked like this: With a full season of starts, I expect double-digit wins with a sub 3.50 ERA and 150-plus strikeouts. With an ADP of 291, Mike has the talent to be an impactful arm based on his price point. Soroka made some progress late in March, but he started the year at AAA (four runs over 9.1 innings with ten Ks). After a call up to Atlanta, Soroka allowed one run or fewer in each of his first eight starts (5-1 with 1.07 ERA and 46 Ks over 50.2 innings). He looked mediocre over his next nine games (3.83 ERA) before rebounding over his final 12 starts (2.99 ERA and 56 Ks over 72.1 innings). In late June, his right forearm had some tightness, but the issue ended up being minor. Soroka wasn’t quite major league ready against left-handed batters (.282 with nine home runs over 277 at-bats). His AFB (93.0) came in at the league average. He gained his advantage via his slider (.159 BAA) and changeup (.126 BAA). Soroka is a sinkerball pitcher with a high ground ball rate (51.2). The biggest fear here is going from 30.2 innings in 2018 to 181.2 innings in 2019. In his one postseason appearance, he looked the ace part after allowing one run and two hits over seven innings. His low strikeout rate (7.3) puts him well behind the top arms in the game. His ADP (108) looks more than favorable. His next step is improving his swing and miss ability while finding a better way to attack lefties. Possible 200 innings with 15-plus wins, a sub 3.00 ERA, and only 150 strikeouts, while making sure there are no adverse injury reports in March.
Hamels enters his 15th season in the majors with a 163-121 record with a 3.42 ERA and 2,558 strikeouts over 2,694.2 innings. Over his past four years, his walk rate (3.3) has been well below his career resume (2.6) while maintaining his strikeout rate (8.4). In 2019, Hamels struggled in his first start (five runs over six innings with four Ks) before posting a 2.53 ERA and 99 strikeouts over his next 99.2 innings. Over this stretch, he did miss the whole month of July with an oblique issue. After two bad starts in August (12 runs and 21 baserunners over five innings), Hamels finished the year with a 4.22 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 32 innings. Late in the season, he did battle a left shoulder issue. He no longer has a clear edge over righthanded (.259) or lefthanded (.265) batters. His AFB (91.8) was his lowest since 2009 (90.9). Both his changeup (.159 BAA) and cutter (.204 BAA) grade as top pitches. Batters pretty much drilled both versions of his fastball (four-seam – .315 BAA and sinker – .369 BAA). The Braves saw enough in his arm to pay him $18 million for one-year while I’m scared to death to roster him even with an ADP of 252. Hamels needs to regain some of his lost velocity plus show a rebound in his command. Atlanta will win games, so a dozen wins with a 3.75 ERA, and 175 strikeouts are viable.
Last year I had Foltynewicz in the avoid column due to his lack of length of success in the majors and his expected draft value. In a way, he saved some fantasy owners by suffering a late March elbow injury that led to over three weeks on the injured list. His season started with six games with four runs or more allowed over 11 starts, which led to a 6.37 ERA, 1.416 WHIP, and 16 home runs over 59.1 innings. After a six-week trip back to AAA (3.86 ERA and 45 Ks over 51.1 innings), Foltynewicz regained his 2018 form with the Braves (6-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 55 Ks over 57.2 innings). A big part of his failure came from home runs allowed (1.8 per nine). His walk rate (2.8) beat his career average (3.1), but he lost value in his strikeout rate (8.1 – 9.9 in 2018). Foltynewicz had regression against right-handed batters (.258 with 12 HRs over 240 at-bats – .208 with six HRs over 327 at-bats in 2018). His AFB (95.0) dropped by almost 1.8 MPH while being a career-low. He had the best success with his slider (.235 BAA) and changeup (.200 BAA) with similar value with his four-seamer (.250 BAA), sinker – .260 BAA), and curveball (.250 BAA). Foltynewicz has a rising fly-ball rate (40.2) and a career-high HR/FB rate (16.9). With an ADP of 206, fantasy owners will be placing their bet on a rebound season. There is growth in this arm, but I do fear a TJ surgery is coming (rising home runs paired with a drop in velocity). Anywhere from a sub 3.00 ERA to summer-long vacation. If the spring reports show an uptick in his fastball, I would be more tempted to invest.
Fried came into 2019 with a first-round pedigree (7th pick overall in 2012), while offering an underachieving resume in the minors (19-33 with a 4.18 ERA and 417 Ks over 420.1 innings). Over the previous two seasons, he struggled at both AA (5.23 ERA) and AAA (4.23 ERA). Fried pitched well last March, leading to him making the Braves opening day roster. His season started with no runs allowed over 13.2 innings with two wins and nine strikeouts. After his 12th game, Fried appeared to be a steal on the waiver wire (7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 51 Ks over 56.1 innings). Over the next two months, his arm didn’t belong in the starting rotation (5.64 ERA, 1.728 WHIP, and eight HRs over 52.2 innings). Somehow he rebounded over his final 11 games (6-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 65 Ks over 56.2 innings). Fried had downside against righties (.281 with 17 HRs over 501 at-bats) while being a much better pitcher at home (9-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 88 Ks over 87 innings). His success was tied to growth in his command (walk rate – 2.6 and strikeout rate – 9.4). His AFB (94.0) was a plus, but batters lit up his four-seamer (.320 BAA with 12 HRs over 347 at-bats). Both his slider (.196 BAA) and curveball (.209 BAA) proved to be major league pitches. Fried is a ground ball pitcher (53.6 percent) with a massive HR/RB rate (20.2), which is held in check by his low fly-ball rate (22.2). This arm does have a chance to offer more good innings in the majors, but his quest for wins won’t go as smoothly in 2020, and his overall resume points to regression in his command. Fantasy owners have him priced (ADP of 146) high this draft season, despite an underwhelming WHIP (1.334) and questionable ERA (4.02). The bottom line here is the command of his fastball in and out of the strike zone. I like his late-season rebound, which points to character. I’m going with the idea of a 3.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with a chance at adding more length to his innings. With that said, Fried is overpriced for me on draft day.
Newcomb didn’t look that bad over his first two starts in 2019 (two runs and 16 baserunners over 11 innings). After a short outing in his third game (four runs and six baserunners over 1.1 innings), he earned a trip to AAA (2.18 ERA and 20 Ks over 20.2 innings). The Braves recalled him in early May but downgraded him to a bullpen arm. Over his next 28 games, Newcomb made one start (no runs over 2.2 innings with three Ks) while posting a 1.31 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 34.1 innings. Over this span, he walked only seven batters (1.8 per nine), which looked like growth in his command. Newcomb lost his way in late July for about a month (8.25 ERA over 12 innings) when he served up five home runs and issued ten walks. His season ended with two runs over 9.2 innings with 11 strikeouts. Newcomb finished with the lowest walk rate (3.8) of his career with fade in his strikeout rate (8.6). His AFB (94.3) improved from 2018 (93.6) while offering two elite pitches (curveball – .083 BAA and slider – .091 BAA). He lost the feel for his changeup (.320 BAA) after it moved to a league-average option in 2018 (.268 BAA). Newcomb induced the most ground balls (49.0) in his career. Getting better, but he can’t be elite without a significant step forward in his command. WHIP is going to be a problem with possibly wins due to many short outings as a result of high pitch counts. Newcomb isn’t a lock to win a starting job while having a free agent pool ADP (558).
Without a doubt, Wilson will be a target for me in drafts as a bench starter. His late January ADP is 570, with one sharp fantasy owner willing to buy him with the 308th draft selection. With a hot spring training, he’ll move quickly up draft boards. Over four seasons in the minors, Wilson went 29-20 with a 2.94 ERA and 429 strikeouts over 410.1 innings. Last year he made 21 starts at AAA (3.42 ERA an 118 Ks over 121 innings) with an exceptional walk rate (1.9). The Braves him three different chances to prove his worth in the majors, but Wilson struggled in just about every game (6.75 ERA, 1.714 WHIP, and four HRs over 18.2 innings). His only flash came on July 3rd (two runs over six innings with five Ks). His AFB (94.8) came in as an asset while working with an upside changeup (.125 BAA) and a struggling slider (.353 BAA). Wilson has the command and fastball to have success, but he needs his secondary stuff to reach a higher level to create more upside. Breakout type arm with a chance at a sub 3.25 ERA and 175 strikeouts in 2020. I expect him to beat out both Max Fried and Sean Newcomb for a starting job.
Wright drew some attention in the high stakes market last March after being named to the Braves starting rotation. After three starts (7.07 ERA), Atlanta shipped him back to AAA. Wright regressed over his next nine games (7.22 ERA) before showing a spark over five starts (1.99 ERA and 37 Ks over 31.2 innings). His second dance in the majors came on July 18th, but ended with quickly (seven runs and ten baserunners over 2.2 innings). In the end, Wright regressed in 2019. He finished with an 11-4 record at AAA with a 4.17 ERA and 116 strikeouts over 112.1 innings while showing growth in his walk rate (2.8). Over three seasons in the minors, Wright posted a 3.70 ERA with 267 strikeouts over 267.1 innings. His AFB (94.9) showed life with a plus slider (.031 BAA in the majors). Atlanta drafted him with the fifth overall pick in 2017. I expect him to emerge as one of the Braves starters in 2020, and his arm should prove to be more than worthy if getting major league batters out. Possible double-digit wins with a 3.50 ERA and 150 strikeouts.
Over six seasons in the minors, Toussaint went 27-44 with a 4.31 ERA and 601 strikeouts over 569.2 innings. His failure continues to be a high walk rate (4.5 – 6.4 at AAA in 2019) in the minors. In 2018, his arm made an excellent step forward at AA (2.93 ERA and 107 Ks over 86 innings) and AAA (5-0 with a 1.43 ERA and 56 Ks over 50.1 innings). Last year Toussaint started the year at AAA. After one start (3.00 ERA), Atlanta called him up. He flashed in his first game (no runs over six innings with seven Ks), creating a buzz on the waiver wire. A disaster second game (seven runs and seven baserunners over 1.1 innings), pushed him back to the minors. Toussaint returned to the Braves in mid-May, where he showed a pulse for eight games as a bullpen arm (1.38 ERA and 12 Ks over 13 innings). Over his final 20 games between AAA and the majors, Toussaint had a 7.92 ERA and 2.075 WHIP over 44.1 innings). His AFB (94.0) matched 2018 while owning two pitches of value (split-finger – .121 BBA and curveball – 1.60 BAA). He struggled to get batters with his two fastballs (four-seam – 387 BAA and sinker – 3.96 BAA). Tons of work to do with the command of his fastball, while ranking behind multiple other young arms in Atlanta’s bullpen.
The closing role for Atlanta will be in flux this spring training, and it may take some time for someone to seize the job long-term. Smith should be the top option based on his success over the past two seasons (2.66 ERA, 167 Ks, and 48 SVs over 118.1 innings). In 2019, he proved to be more than worthy of being a top closing arm. His season started with a 1.98 ERA, 53 strikeouts, and 23 saves over 36.1 innings. Smith tripped up in multiple games in July and August, which led to a drop back in value (4.64 ERA and 29 Ks over 21.1 innings). His struggles came from six home runs allowed (1.4 per nine innings on the year). He missed some time in September (1.17 ERA over 7.2 innings with 14 Ks) with a back issue. Smith finished with the highest strikeout rate (13.2) of his career, with a slight step back in his walk rate (2.9). He dominated lefties (.157 with one HR over 70 at-bats). His AFB (92.9) regressed slightly with batters hitting .290 vs. his four-seamer. Smith offers a plus slider (.177 BAA) and a winning show-me curveball (0.083 BAA). A potential 100-strikeout reliever with 40-plus saves and an edge on ERA and WHIP.
Melancon comes in 2020 with some closing momentum after taking over the Braves 9th inning role over the final seven weeks last season. Over his final 18 games, he converted all 11 of his saves chances with a 2.60 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 17.1 innings. His overall stats from last year didn’t paint an upside picture for him as remaining as a viable closing option for the Braves, despite 194 career saves on his resume. With Atlanta, Melancon show improvement in both his walk rate (0.9) and his strikeout rate (10.3). His arm didn’t have an edge over righties (.265) or lefties (.278). He did game some velocity back on his cutter (92.1 MPH), which he throws as his top pitch. Even so, batters hit .321 against it while having the best success with his curveball (.226 BAA). I’m not buying even if he wins the closing job out of spring training. Will Smith outpitched him in San Fran, and he’ll do the same for the Braves.
Over the past two seasons, Greene figured out how to throw strikes with the first pitch (66 percent), which led to growth in his walk rate (2018 – 2.7 and 2019 – 2.4). At the same time, he pushed his strikeout rate (9.2) above his career average (8.5). Greene was one of the better save arms over the first two months last season (1.13 ERA and 27 Ks over 24.0 innings), leading to 18 saves in 19 tries. The Tigers struggled to win games in June, creating only four saves for him while pitching seven shutout innings. The save glory ended once the calendar flipped to July when he blew two saves for the Tigers. After a trade to the Braves, Greene pitched his way out of the 9th inning after three bad games (five runs and nine baserunners over three innings with three Ks). Over his last 24 games, he had a 2.49 ERA and 18 strikeouts over 21.2 innings with a token save in September. Greene struggled with left-handed batters (.266). His AFB (94.2) lost about 1.4 MPH from 2018 (95.6), but he did have three pitches of value (sinker – .218 BAA, slider – .228 BAA, and cutter – .163 BAA). Greene has a waiver wire ADP (545), but I like his chances to earn saves over Mark Melancon, who will cost more at the draft table (ADP of 216). Viable insurance option with enough success in the 9th to steal the job if given an opportunity.
