We’ve reached the final race of the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, and even though the green flag hasn’t waved yet on the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, we already have our first wrinkle.
Mother Nature caused all sorts of problems with the schedule of track activities, forcing NASCAR to cancel both Friday’s practices and replace them with a single session Saturday afternoon. In order to fit in the practice session, NASCAR canceled qualifying, choosing to set the field by owner points.
Setting the field by points makes life a little more difficult when it comes to building NASCAR DFS lineups at DraftKings. We now have all four title contenders making up the first two rows, and nearly every top driver is starting towards the front of the field. Not only does this eliminate an easy sources of place differential points, but it also makes the dominator points tough to pin down.
The difference between the top drivers is miniscule, and clean air can mean all the difference in the world. One good restart or one extra spot on pit road could put any of the Championship 4 or another top driver like Kyle Larson or Joey Logano out front and on their way to piling up dominator points, drastically changing the balance of power at DraftKings.
With the way the weekend has played out so far and the trends we have seen at Homestead in the past, I have built a majority of my lineups around two or three high-end dominators. Last year, we saw six drivers lead at least 20 laps, including all four championship hopefuls, and four drivers led more than 40 laps.
Without any obvious options for differential points, I don’t mind top loading my lineups and making the salary work with some low-priced punt plays.
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Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($10,800)
No driver has scored more points or led more laps at the 1.5-mile tracks this year than Harvick, and I don’t expect that to change Sunday. After all, he has finished in the Top 10 in his last 11 starts at Homestead, posting a 2.6 average finish in his five starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing. He has led at least 46 laps in four of those starts, recording double-digit fastest laps in all five and 20-plus fastest laps four times. Starting on the front row, I expect plenty of dominator points and a big point total at DraftKings for Harvick.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600)
His 8.3 average finish in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this year is the best mark in the series, and Truex has picked up two of his series-best seven wins at the mile-and-a-half ovals. He has also delivered back-to-back impressive performances at Homestead, winning the 2017 race and finishing second last season. Truex led 78 laps and recorded 19 fastest laps in his title-clinching win two years ago, and he led 20 laps and logged 35 fastest laps in his runner-up effort last season. Slated to start third, he should do plenty of damage in the dominator categories again Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($10,200)
Homestead has been one of his best tracks, and in six starts here, Larson owns an 8.5 average finish. More importantly, he has cracked the Top 5 in three of the last four races here, leading at least 45 laps in three straight Homestead starts. In fact, Larson has led more than 130 laps twice in that stretch, topping 50 fastest laps in four straight races here. Starting sixth, don’t be surprised if Larson ends up earning the most dominator points and finishing as the top scorer at DraftKings.
Cash Plays
Denny Hamlin ($11,100)
Hamlin doesn’t have the dominant numbers at Homestead in recent years that the other title contenders do, but he is a two-time winner here, and he led 41 laps and recorded 24 fastest laps in last year’s finale. He is also starting from the pole, so at the very least, he is positioned to pile up some earlier dominator points. Plus, he could always end up hogging a majority of the dominator points. Hamlin is going to be a popular play, and he has a high floor and a high ceiling. He’s exactly what you look for in cash option.
Joey Logano ($9,800)
Logano is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and he has been one of the stronger performers at Homestead for several years. He has finished sixth or better in his last four starts at here, leading more than 70 laps twice in that span. Last season, Logano led a race-high 80 laps and recorded 34 fastest laps, and starting in the Top 5, he is a safe bet to provide at least some dominator points again this weekend. Priced below $10,000, you can easily fit Logano alongside one or two of the Championship 4 and still build a solid overall roster.
Erik Jones ($8,600)
He has been one of the most consistent performers at mile-and-a-half ovals this year, cracking the Top 15 in eight of the 10 races and tying for the series lead with seven Top 10s. Jones also led 79 laps in a win at Darlington earlier this year and finished seventh at Chicagoland, and those two tracks used the same tire package being used this weekend at Homestead. As a bonus, Jones has to start 16th, giving him the most upside place differential of any driver with legitimate Top 5 potential.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,600)
His overall numbers at 1.5-mile tracks aren’t particularly pretty, but DiBenedetto has gotten better throughout the year. He has finished 21st or better in the last four races, finishing 16th or better three times and logging back-to-back Top 15s at Kansas and Texas. DiBenedetto should challenge for a Top 15 again this weekend, and his 21st staring spot gives him a little room to work the place differential category to his advantage.
Chris Buescher ($6,700)
The field being set by points probably hurt his place differential upside just a bit, but Buescher still starts back in 20th. He has yet to finish outside the Top 20 at a 1.5-mile track this season, posting a 14.1 average finish and gaining an average of 10.1 spots in those 10 races. Buescher has actually gained at least eight positions in eight of those 10 starts, and even from a mid-pack starting spot, he should be a safe, affordable source of 30-plus fantasy points.
GPP Specials
Kyle Busch ($11,400)
Yes, he is mired in a long winless drought, but I am not going to completely ignore a driver of Busch’s caliber in a winner-take-all race. Not to mention that for all the talk of his struggles, he is still tied for the series lead with seven Top 10s at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, and he is tied for second in laps led in those races. Busch has also been excellent at Homestead, finishing sixth or better in four straight starts and leading 20-plus laps in three of those races. Starting fourth, I expect at least some dominator points out of Busch, and he always has a chance to dominate a race.
Clint Bowyer ($8,800)
For all his struggles this season, Bowyer has shown a decent amount of upside at the 1.5-mile tracks. He has four finishes of sixth or better in the 10 races, finishing 11th or better six times. Plus, he has led more than 30 laps in two of the last four races at mile-and-a-half ovals. Bowyer has finished 12th or better in 10 of his 13 starts at Homestead, and he finished eighth here last season. Starting 10th, I like him as a pivot to Erik Jones.
Alex Bowman ($7,800)
When it comes to drivers priced below the $8,000 mark, I don’t think any have more upside than Bowman. His 9.3 average finish in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2019 ranks third in the series, and he has finished seventh or better and led laps in five of the last seven races. He led 88 laps in a win at Chicagoland back in June, and the same tire that was used in that race is being used this weekend at Homestead. Starting 12th, Bowman doesn’t have much place differential upside, but he could be a sneaky source for some dominator points and a Top 5 finish.
Austin Dillon ($7,100)
There aren’t many tracks where I seriously consider Dillon, but Homestead is on the short list. He has cracked the Top 15 in four straight starts here, notching back-to-back 11th-place finishes and gaining five spots in his last three starts here. Consistency always tends to be an issue with Dillon, but scheduled to roll of 22nd, he has a legitimate shot at 30-plus fantasy points at a friendly price tag.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,900)
Chris Buescher is the safe play in this price range, but Stenhouse could be worth the gamble as a pivot. He starts in 23rd, so there’s differential upside here. He has also finished 18th or better in eight of the 10 races at mile-and-a-half tracks this year. Finishing 12th or better five times.
John Hunter Nemechek ($5,800)
If you are looking to roll the dice on a punt play and dip below the $6,000 mark, I think Nemechek is the way to go. He is only making his third Cup start, but he did gain eight spots and finish 21st at Texas, another 1.5-mile track, in his series debut a couple of weeks back. Nemechek will start back in 30th Sunday, and I think he can deliver a Top 25, potentially pushing towards the Top 20.
