On the heels of Saturday’s qualifying session that featured more than a few surprises, the starting lineup for the Hollywood Casino 400 is officially set, and it is time to assemble some winning NASCAR DFS lineups at DraftKings.
The reduced-horsepower, high-downforce package being used this year has forced teams to decide whether they want their cars to be “trimmed out” for more raw speed in qualifying or to have better handling over longer runs on race day. Looking at the starting lineup, there were definitely some different strategies in play between the big teams.
Joe Gibbs Racing clearly opted for balance and long-run speed as an organization, but Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports seemed to be split. Throw in the fact that Kevin Harvick wasn’t even allowed to qualify and will have to start last after numerous inspection failures, and we have several heavy hitters armed with a lot of place differential upside. We also have a front row featuring Daniel Hemric and David Ragan.
Ultimately, I think some of the big names starting deep in the field will get to the front, but it won’t happen instantly. I think you need to try to pair a couple of these place differential hogs with some cheaper drivers who could steal some early dominator points and hang on for solid finishes if you want to win the big contests. In cash games, I think you can focus entirely on place differential points.
Must-Own Drivers
Kyle Busch ($11,400)
A lot has been made of Busch’s winless drought, and he hasn’t won a race at a 1.5-mile track all year. On the flip side, he has finished third or better in the three of the eight races, leading laps in five of those starts and leading 60-plus laps three times. He qualified back in 18th, but Busch had the strongest car on long runs in practice Friday. I expect him to pile up differential and dominator points Sunday.
Kevin Harvick ($11,000)
With the most points and laps led at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2019 and the best resume among active drivers at Kansas, Harvick was always going to be one of the top DFS plays. After failing pre-qualifying inspection multiple times and being forced to start last, he becomes an absolute must-own driver. Harvick had arguably the best car during Friday’s practices, and he should finish with 70-plus points on finishing position and differential points alone. His ceiling only goes up from there.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800)
Truex went to victory lane at Las Vegas the last time the series visited a 1.5-mile oval, and he ranks third in points scored in those eight races overall this year. Truex has also been a force at Kansas, posting four Top 5s in his last five starts at the track, sweeping both races here in 2017. Starting 11th, he has the best track position among the quartet of Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, and the JGR cars looked locked in on longer runs during practice.
Cash Plays
Denny Hamlin ($10,500)
Hamlin has been more consistent than dominant at the 1.5-mile ovals this year, but he has scored the fifth-most points in the eight races, winning at Texas. More importantly, he qualified back in 23rd but had one of the best cars in race trim during Friday’s practices. At the very least, I expect him to pile up place differential points, and I wouldn’t rule out some dominator points, as well.
Joey Logano ($9,800)
He is a two-time winner at Kansas, and Logano led 100 laps in the fall here a year ago. More importantly, he has been one of the steadiest performers at mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019. He is 9.6 average finish in the eight races is tied for second in the series, and he has led the second most laps in those starts. Logano also led a race-high 105 laps at Las Vegas in the playoff opener a few weeks back, so he could be poised to pile up some dominator points Sunday. I really like him as a building block for cash lineups.
Erik Jones ($8,400)
Jones has notched five finishes of seventh or better in the eight races at mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019, and he has shown some serious upside at Kansas dating back to last year. He has four straight finishes of seventh or better here, finishing fourth last fall and third in the spring race this season. He starts 20th, but like the other Joe Gibbs Racing cars, Jones showed strong long-run speed in race trim. He should be a solid mid-priced addition to balanced cash lineups.
William Byron ($8,200)
Byron has been on the rise at the 1.5-mile ovals in his second Cup season. He has a 12.6 average finish in the eight races this year, leading laps in six of those starts and logging three Top 10s in the last four races alone. He qualified back in 25th, but he ranked solidly inside the Top 15 during practice. Byron has a high floor through the place differential category.
Paul Menard ($6,900)
He has quietly been a solid performer at the 1.5-mile tracks this season, compiling a 16.5 average finish and logging five Top 15s in the eight races. Don’t read too much into his 24th-place finish at Kansas in May either. Menard was running in the Top 10 in that race before an ill-timed caution during pit stops trapped him a lap down. He starts 22nd with a car that snuck into the Top 10 on the practice charts. He is a low-priced, solid-floor cash play.
Chris Buescher ($6,700)
Buescher has been DFS gold mine at the mile-and-a-half ovals this year, logging a 13.6 average finish and notching four Top 10s. More importantly, he has also gained an average of 10.9 spots per race, gaining at least eight positions in all eight starts. After qualifying 26th, he is perfectly positioned for another solid point total. At this price, he is a no-brainer play in cash games.
GPP Specials
Chase Elliott ($10,100)
With Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Joey Logan and Denny Hamlin all starting outside the Top 15, Elliott will likely be under-owned after qualifying 14th. However, he has scored the fourth most driver points at the 1.5-mile ovals in 2019, and he has been great at Kansas. Elliott has Top 5 finishes in three of his last four starts at the track, winning the win here last fall and leading 45 laps and finishing fourth here in the spring. He could be an excellent contrarian play.
Brad Keselowski ($9,600)
He has shown one of the highest ceilings at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, winning twice and notching a series-best five Top 5s in the eight races. One of those wins came at Kansas, and after qualifying fourth, he is in great position to pile up some early dominator points and potentially lead a majority of the race.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200)
He entered this weekend with a strong record at Kansas, finishing seventh or better in five of his eight starts here and leading 50-plus laps twice. Blaney has kept the momentum going, following up an excellent pair of practice sessions with a third-place effort in qualifying. He appears to have a car capable of leading laps, and I like the idea of rolling the dice on Blaney as a cheaper dominator and pairing him with all the big names starting deep in the field.
Clint Bowyer ($8,800)
It has been a rollercoaster ride for Bowyer at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year. He has four finishes of 14th or worse, including three finishes of 24th or worse, in the eight races, but he also has four finishes of sixth or better. He led 12 laps and finished fifth at Kansas in May, and after qualifying 21st, he could take advantage of the differential category in a big way. Use him as a contrarian to William Byron and Erik Jones.
Alex Bowman ($8,600)
Bowman has run hot and cold in 2019, and a 16th-place qualifying effort puts him behind some of the other big name mid-priced option in terms of differential upside. However, he boasts one of the best resumes at the mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019. His 9.6 average finish in the eight races is tied for the second best mark in the series, and Bowman has finished seventh or better in four of the last five races, leading 63 laps and finishing seventh at Kansas in May and leading 88 laps in a win at Chicagoland.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000)
He has been surprisingly competitive at the 1.5-mile ovals this year, posting a 13.2 average finish in the eight races. He has finished 12th or better in five of those starts, and Stenhouse has a great run at Kansas in May, leading 11 laps and finishing 11th. Starting 19th, Stenhouse doesn’t jump off the page as an obvious play, but he still has some differential upside to go with Top 10 upside. I like him as a pivot to Chris Buescher.
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