The second round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs comes to a close this weekend at Kansas Speedway. Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 is the second race of the year at the track and ninth race at a mile-and-a-half oval.
While the pressure of an elimination race will likely lead to some desperate moves and potentially some critical mistakes, I still expect the overall trends we have seen with the 2019 rules package at 1.5-mile ovals to hold true on Sunday. From a DFS standpoint, this means leaning on the big names and the big teams as much as possible when building your lineups at DraftKings.
A quick look at the drivers who have scored the most points at the 1.5-mile tracks this year supports this strategy. Kevin Harvick has scored the most points, followed by Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Outside of Elliott, who has opened the Round of 12 with a mechanical issue and a wreck at Talladega, all of these drivers are poised to advance to the Round of 8 and are considered among the championship frontrunners.
Back at Kansas in May, Harvick led a race-high 104 laps and was out front when he had to pit under green for debris on the grill. Keselowski ended up winning the race, and Elliott and Alex Bowman also led more than 40 laps on their way to Top 5 finishes. As has been the case at all the 1.5-mile ovals, passing was tough, track position was crucial, and restarts and pit strategy allowed several drivers to earn small chunks of dominator points.
With that in mind, I like the idea of using some lineups with one high-priced dominator and some with two. More importantly, I recommend fitting in as many mid-priced and lower-priced drivers from the top teams as possible. These are the drivers who are most likely to deliver a surprise Top 10 and provide a few dominator points. For the most, I am going to prioritize finishing potential ahead of place differential, but in a perfect world, there will be a few drivers who offer upside in both categories after the starting lineup is set.
Make sure to check back after practice and qualifying this weekend for updated driver picks and lineup strategies. In the meantime, take a closer look at the drivers I expect to have the most exposure to at DraftKings for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($11,000)
Statistically speaking, you to like Harvick’s chances of finishing as the top scorer at DraftKings this weekend. He leads all drivers with 322 points scored and 430 laps led in the eight races at mile-and-half-tracks this season, leading a race-high 104 laps at Kansas in May. Harvick was actually leading that race when he had to make an unscheduled stop for debris on the grill of the car. He also owns a 6.5 average finish in 11 starts at Kansas for the No. 4 team, logging six finishes of third or better and leading double-digit laps 10 times. In fact, Harvick has led 70-plus laps in three straight starts at Kansas.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800)
The last time the Cup Series visited a 1.5-mile oval, Truex went to victory lane at Las Vegas in the playoff opener. For the year, he ranks third in points scored in the eight races at mile-and-a-half ovals and is one of just two drivers with multiple wins in those starts. Truex has also notched four Top 5s in his last five starts at Kansas, sweeping both races here in 2017.
Difference Makers and Value Plays
Chase Elliott ($10,100)
He has been a steady performer at the mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019, scoring the fourth most driver points and posting a 9.9 average finish. Elliott has been strong at Kansas in particular. He has Top 5 finishes in three of his last four starts at the track, picking up the win here last fall and leading 45 laps and finishing fourth here in the spring. There’s plenty of dominator potential here.
Joey Logano ($9,800)
He is a two-time winner at Kansas, and Logano led 100 laps in the fall here a year ago. More importantly, he has been one of the steadiest performers at mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019. He is 9.6 average finish in the eight races is tied for second in the series, and he has led the second most laps in those starts. Logano also led a race-high 105 laps at Las Vegas in the playoff opener a few weeks back, so he could be poised to pile up some dominator points Sunday. I really like him as a building block for cash lineups.
Brad Keselowski ($9,600)
Keselowski is going for the season sweep at Kansas after notching the win here in May, and he has shown one of the highest ceilings at the 1.5-mile tracks in general this year. His five Top 5s in the eight races are the most of any driver, and he is one of just two drivers with multiple wins at the mile-and-a-half ovals. Keep him in mind as a contrarian dominator.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200)
Blaney has had some bad luck at the 1.5-mile ovals this year, but he has enjoyed more success recently. He has four straight Top 15s, finishing sixth at Chicagoland and fifth in the playoff opener at Las Vegas during that stretch. I also love his record at Kansas. Blaney has finished seventh or better in five of his eight starts here, leading 50-plus laps twice.
Alex Bowman ($8,600)
Bowman has been streaky overall this season, but he has definitely been at his best at the 1.5-mile tracks this year. His 9.6 average finish in the eight races is tied for the second best mark in the series, and he has really been coming on strong of late. Bowman has finished seventh or better in four of the last five races at mile-and-a-half tracks, leading 63 laps and finishing seventh at Kansas in May and leading 88 laps in a win at Chicagoland. He offers legitimate dominator potential and Top 5 upside for a midrange price, and I really like him in GPPs since he is facing a must-win situation.
Erik Jones ($8,400)
He’s been a steady performer at the 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season, and Jones has logged five finishes of seventh or better in the eight races this year. Kansas has been one of his best tracks, and he has three straight finishes of seventh or better here, including a fourth-place run last fall and a third-place finish back in May. Jones offers Top 5 upside for a midrange price.
William Byron ($8,200)
He has made serious strides in his sophomore season, and Byron continues to trend in the right direction at the 1.5-mile ovals. He has a 12.6 average finish in the eight races this year, cracking the Top 20 in all of them and leading laps in six of those starts. More importantly, Byron has three Top 10s in the last four races alone. Facing a must-win situation to advance in the playoffs, he makes an intriguing GPP play.
Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)
After struggling at the mile-and-a-half ovals for a couple of years, Johnson has quietly enjoyed a rebound season. He has finished 11th or better in five of the last six races, finishing sixth at Kansas in the spring. Throw in the fact that he has been running well throughout the playoffs, and you have to feel confident that Johnson will challenge for a Top 10 this weekend.
Aric Almirola ($7,800)
While he doesn’t offer as much upside as some of the other drivers in this price range, Almirola does provide one of the safer floors. He owns an 11.0 average finish in the eight races at mile-and-a-half ovals this year, and he hasn’t finished worse than 16th in those starts. Almirola has also finished 12th or better in four straight starts at Kansas. If he qualifies outside the Top 15, I will be all over him in cash games.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000)
Stenhouse has been one of the biggest surprises at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2019. He has posted a 13.2 average finish in the eight races, and he has finished 12th or better five times. Stenhouse has a great run at Kansas in May, leading 11 laps and finishing 11th. Even if he qualifies well, I like him as a GPP option at this price.
Chris Buescher ($6,700)
He has been a DFS juggernaut at these intermediate tracks all season long. He has finished inside the Top 20 in all eight races, posting a 13.6 average finish and notching four Top 10s. He has also gained an average of 10.9 spots per race, gaining at least eight positions in all eight starts. If Buescher qualifies in the back half of the field again this weekend, you should have plenty of exposure to him, especially in cash games.
Sleeper Special
Daniel Hemric ($6,600)
It will come down to his starting spot, but in terms of finishing potential, Hemric has the edge on other drivers in this price range. He has a 21.9 average finish in the eight races at 1.5-mile ovals, and he has cracked the Top 20 in three of the last five races, which includes an 18th-place finish at Kansas in the spring and a 17th-place effort in the playoff opener at Las Vegas. If he qualifies outside the Top 20, he will be my top source of cap relief.
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