Detroit Lions Team Outlook
In this Detroit Lions Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
Matt Patricia failed to hit the ground running in his first year as the head coach for the Lions after spending the previous six seasons with the Patriots’ defensive coordinator. Matt worked in New England’s system since 2004, helping them win three Super Bowl. Patricia went 6-10 last year.
Offensive Coordinator
The ball dropped on the offensive coordinator for Detroit in 2018 after they slipped to 25th in points scored (324) and 24th in yards allowed. The Lions brought in Darrell Bevell to run the offense after spending the last 12 seasons with the Vikings and the Seahawks as the offensive coordinator. He helped Seattle win one Super Bowl. Bevell has 19 years of experience in the NFL.
Defensive Coordinator
Detroit climbed to 10th in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed (360). Paul Pasqualoni returns for his second year as their defensive coordinator after making the jump from Boston College where he held the same position. Pasqualoni has nine years of experience in the NFL.
Lions Free Agency
After struggling in 2018, the Lions went to the waiver wire to solve their failures on both sides of the ball.
Tom Savage and Connor Cook signed to compete for the backup quarterback job. They added C.J. Anderson, Kerwynn Williams, and Mark Thompson for running back depth. Their additions at wide receiver were Danny Amendola, Tommylee Lewis, Jermaine Kearse, and Brandon Reilly. Detroit brought in TE Jesse James and TE Logan Thomas to fall in behind incoming rookie T.J. Hockenson. The only player added to the offensive line was G Oday Aboushi who projects as the first player off the bench.
Detroit lost QB Matt Cassel, RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Bruce Ellington, WR T.J. Jones, TE Levine Toilolo, TE Luke Willson, TE Jerome Cunningham, G T.J. Lang, and T Andrew Donnal.
On defense, the Lions invested in DE Trey Flowers, CB Justin Coleman, and CB Rashaan Melvin. Flowers played at high-level for New England in 2018 leading to big contract from Detroit.
They released DT Ricky Jean-Francois, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DE Kerry Hyder, LB Eli Harold, LB Nicholas Grigsby, LB Kelvin Sheppard, LB Trevor Bates, CB Glover Quinn, CB Nevin Lawson, and CB Deshawn Shead.
Lions Draft Picks
First Round pick, 8th overall: TE T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
In the first round, the Lions drafted TE T.J. Hockenson with the eighth overall pick. He’ll upgrade the TE position in his rookie season while offering an edge in route running. His skill set projects well in the passing game, but Hockenson needs to improve as a blocker to play on all three downs. Detroit’s coaching staff has ties to New England where an impact TE has been a big part of the success of the franchise over the last ten seasons.
Second Round pick, 43rd overall: LB Jahlani Tavai, Hawaii
Tavai comes to the NFL as a high-volume tackler with the foundation skill set to play on all three downs. His vision and anticipation help offset his subpar athletic ability. Jahlani will have the success moving forward while losing some value if asked to change direction. His motor and production improve his playability.
Third Round pick, 81st overall: S Will Harris, Boston College
Harris brings an excellent combination of speed, strength, and quickness to the safety position. His best asset comes in pass coverage while possibly working on special teams. He still plays with a looker mentality, which leaves him a step behind on some plays in zone coverage. Will needs to see the open man and attack. His game has some risk in run support while lacking a playmaking skill set.
Fourth Round pick, 117th overall: DE Austin Bryant, Clemson
Bryant played for a great college program where he was a complementary piece to their defense. He’ll create sacks and negative plays in the run game, but he lacks the desired strength to make an impact in the pass rush at the next level while needing finish off a defender rather than land on the mat. Austin plays hard with depth in his moves and reliable hands. The bottom line comes down to improving his technique to help overcome his shortfalls in athletic ability.
Fifth Round pick, 146th overall: CB Amani Oruwariye, Penn State
Oruwariye is another player with a combination of speed, strength, and quickness. His skill set projects as a press corner who may have risk when asked to cover to the long field. Amani needs to work on his backpedal and technique while also requiring more game experience. His game should translate well in run support.
Sixth Round pick, 184th overall: WR Travis Fulgham, Old Dominion
Fulgham gives the Lions a second big WR (6’2” and 215 Lbs.). He’ll struggle to win off the line of scrimmage with questions about his route running. Travis has a big catch radius with the ability to win in tight quarters. His release takes a while to get cranked up while also lacking the winning gear in the deep passing game.
Sixth Round pick, 186th overall: RB Ty Johnson, Maryland
Johnson runs with a big play feel helped his vision and creativity in the heat of traffic. Unfortunately, he lacks the fight and power to finish runs at the second level while always looking for daylight on the outside. Ty lacks a pass-catching foundation with questions with his success in passing protection.
Seventh Round pick, 224th overall: TE Isaac Nauta, Georgia
Nauta has a pass-catcher’s skill set, but his speed and quickness limit his explosiveness. Isaac has a feel for route running with the hands and athletic ability to make plays in the passing game. He’s undersized (6’3” and 244 lbs.), which gives him risk in the blocking game and limit his value after the catch.
Seventh Round pick, 229th overall: DT P.J. Johnson, Arizona
With the last pick in the seventh round, Detroit added DT P.J. Johnson. Early in his career, Johnson should work a rotational run defender who plays with power and a feel for the oncoming run plays. His playmaking window will be limited along with his motor until he gets his waistline is a favorable area. With more up body strength and a slimmer frame, his game may surprise in all areas.
Offensive Line
Detroit climbed to 23rd in rushing yards (1,660) while averaging 25.2 rushing attempts per game. They gained 4.1 yards per carry with 11 TDs and ten runs over 20 yards.
They ranked 20th in passing yards (3,576) with 22 TDs and 12 Ints. The Lions gained only 6.7 yards per pass attempt with only six catches over 40 yards. Their offensive line allowed 41 sacks and 84 QB hits.
LT Taylor Decker
Decker struggled in last year in run blocking while continuing to handle his responsibility in pass protection. The Lions selected him in the first round in 2016 with the 16th overall. His game would make a step forward with a more explosive option at RB, and Kerry Johnson may very well be that guy.
LG Frank Ragnow
Ragnow ended up starting 16 games in his rookie season after being drafted in the first round in 2018. He ended up struggling in all areas while gaining experience. In his last year in college, Ragnow played in only eight games due to a high ankle injury. His game is built on power and his initial quickness, but his overall speed isn’t an edge. Frank can handle bull rushers while showing limited range if asked to defend a more significant part of the field.
C Graham Glasgow
Glasgow started all 16 games last season. Detroit drafted him in the third round in 2016. Glasgow has limitations in his blocking area due to minimal quickness and questionable foot speed. Graham plays with power, and he can play multiple positions. At this point in his career, Graham has performed better in pass protection than the run game. Overall, he projects as a neutral player.
RG Kenny Wiggins
Wiggins started all 16 games in 2017 for the Chargers with no edge in any area. Injuries at right guard led to him starting the last eight games for the Lions. He continued to regress in run blocking with no upside in pass protection. Detroit will look to improve this position as the season moves on.
RT Ricky Wagner
Wagner has three plus season on his six-year resume after being selected in the fifth round in 2013. Wagner plays the best in pass protection while underperforming in the run game over the last four seasons.
O-Line Fantasy Outlook
The Lions have an offensive line with some talent while most options rank below expectations in the run game. A better RB would go a long way in helping Detroit in the run game. Their weakness at right guard pushes this line closer to league average. If the run game makes a step forward, the Lions could be much improved on offense in 2019.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Lions Schedule Fantasy Outlook
Detroit has one premium matchup (ARI) in Week 1 for their rushing offense plus two other mid-tier games (KC and OAK). They’ll struggle in four different contests (PHI, DAL, and CHI X 2) leading to a slightly unfavorable schedule.
The Lions have three tough games (ARI and MIN X 2) for the passing offense, and three below-par matchups (LAC and CHI X 2). Their best success passing the ball should come against the Eagles, the Chiefs, and the Buccaneers.
Lions Offense
Detroit ran the ball only 42.1 percent of the time while continuing to attempt above the league average in passes. Game score and more growth in defense should lead to more runs. The Lions do have some receiving talent to help the overall scoring ability.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford
Over his last eight seasons has with the Lions, Stafford hasn’t missed a game with a 63-65 record. Matthew has 218 TDs and 108 Ints over his previous 128 games. His completion rate (66.1) moved into an elite area over the last four seasons, but his passing yards (3,777) slipped to an eight-year low. Stafford passed for 4,000 yards in each of his previous seven seasons. His passing attempts (555) were league average while being well below his last seven years (625 per season). Last year Matthew threw for over 300 yards in three games, and he had only one game with three TDs. In 2019, Detroit added an upside pass-catching TE while owning two viable options in the passing game at WR. I expect a rebound to 4,200+ passing yards with a push toward 28+ TDs. Stafford should be drafted as backend QB2 in the Fantasy market with matchup value.
Other Options: Tom Savage, David Fales
Running Backs
Kerryon Johnson
Johnson flashed in Week 2 (76 combined yards with five catches) and Week 3 (110 combined yards with two catches) leading to him taking over the lead RB role for Detroit in Week 5. Over a six-game strength midseason, Kerryon gained 585 combined yards with three TDs and 21 catches) while averaging 16.8 touches per game. He gained an impressive 5.4 yards per rush with six runs over 20 yards. He appeared to be on a path to be an impact back, but his season ended after Week 1 due to a left knee injury. Overall, Johnson played better than I expected. In 2018, the Lions’ RBs gained 2,323 combined yards with 12 TDs and 112 catches on 491 touches. Kerryon should average over 18 touches per game pointing to 1,200 yards with double-digit TDs and 40+ catches. Player of interest with a chance to finish as backend RB1.
Update 8/17/2019: The trade of Theo Riddick to the Broncos instantly upgraded the pass-catching opportunity for Kerryon Johnson. In mid-August, he’s been the big mover at RB in the third round in the high-stakes market. I’ve upgraded his projections to 1,400+ yards with eight TDs and 65+ catches. He’ll be a target for many drafters in the late second round going forward.
C.J. Anderson
After a career year in 2017 (1,231 combined yards with four TDs and 28 catches), Anderson struggles to see the field behind the hot running Christian McCaffery. After his release from the Panthers, C.J. turned into Todd Gurley over three games for the Rams (162 combined yards with one TD and one catch, 154 combined yards with one TD and three catches, and 123 rushing yards and two TDs) while averaging over 23 touches per game. His success gives him high insurance value in 2019 while expect to see more touches per week. Possible 125+ touches for 650+ yards and minimal upside in TDs or catches without an injury to another running back on the Lions’ roster.
Ty Johnson (Added 8/17/20019)
The player rewarded after the Theo Riddick trade is Ty Johnson who moves to third on the Lions’ RB depth chart. He comes to the NFL with electric speed with better than expected value as a receiver. Johnson’s best season in college came in 2016 when he gained 1,004 yards rushing on only 110 carries with six TDs and some success in the passing game (16/206/1). More of a change of pace option than a threat to play on early downs.
Other Options: Zach Zenner, Mark Thompson, Ty Johnson
PLAY AGAINST THE BEST WITH FULLTIME FANTASY! | Odds
Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay
When the 2018 season was over, Golladay exceeded expectation when considering Fantasy owners drafted him as a WR4 in PPR leagues. Over 15 games and 13 starts, he caught 70 passes for 1,063 yards and five TDs on 119 targets to rank 20th in WR scoring. His opportunity was helped by a midseason trade of Golden Tate. Kenny played well over the first five games (7/114, 6/89/1, 6/53/1, 4/74, and 4/98/1) before a minor slump (2/37, 1/12, and 3/46).
Over his last seven starts, Golladay delivered success in four contests (6/78/1, 8/113/1, 5/90, and 7/146) while receiving double-digit targets in four games on the year. His yards per catch (15.2) give him explosiveness while also understanding his value in TDs should push to a much higher level in 2019. Kenny missed Week 17 with a chest issue. Detroit expects him to be ready for training camp with his eyes on more follow through in 2019. Golladay should see a bump in targets by a minimum of 20 percent pushing his bar this year to 85+ catches for 1,250+ yards and a shot at double-digit TDs. An excellent WR2 option who will be drafted late in the third round in many formats.
Marvin Jones
The Lions almost used Jones as their third receiving option at WR over the first six games, which led to short catches in all weeks (4/54, 4/54/1, 4/69/1, 1/81/1, and 3/29) while still finding the endzone in three games. Marvin exploded in Week 8 (7/117/2), but his season ended after Week 10 due to right knee injury that was described as a bone bruise. His path over nine-game would have led to about 62 catches for 903 yards and nine TDs, which was below his success for Detroit in 2017 (61/1101/9). Marvin has never had over 110 targets in a season, which limits him to a WR3 Fantasy option for me. The Lions will throw enough passes to make him relevant in 2019, but I would expect more steady outings than impact games. Possible 70+ catches for 1,000+ yards and five to seven TDs.
Update 8/17/2019: Both Danny Amendola and Marvin Jones suffered injuries in mid-August, but Detroit hasn’t released any updates on their status. Jones didn’t travel with the team for the second preseason game.
Danny Amendola
Amendola worked as the possession WR for the Dolphins in 2018, while failing to make a Fantasy impact. He caught 59 of his 79 targets for 575 yards and one TD while working over the short areas of the field. His yards per catch (9.7) remains low. Danny has a catch rate over 70.0 percent in each of the last four seasons. Last season he started the most games (15) of his career, but Amendola failed to beat his success in multiple other seasons. Danny will be an upgrade in the slot for the Lions, but durability can be an issue if he’s overworked. Only a 50 catch guy who may surprise in some games.
8/17/2019: Both Danny Amendola and Marvin Jones suffered injuries in mid-August, but Detroit hasn’t released any updates on their status. Jones didn’t travel with the team for the second preseason game.
Jermaine Kearse
In 2017, Kearse set career highs in catches (65), receiving yards (810), and targets (102), but he failed to have follow through last year for the Jets. Jermaine only caught 37 of 76 targets for 371 yards with one TD. Jermaine only had two games of value (9/94 and 6/66/1). This season he’ll work as the WR4 for Detroit where he’ll be productive in some games when the Lions are forced to air out the ball in chaser games. Only a waiver-wire option if he sees a bump in playing time.
Update 8/17/2019: Jermaine Kearse suffered a season-ending foot injury in the first preseason game.
Other Options: Tommylee Lewis, Andy Jones, Brandon Powell, Travis Fulgham, Chris Lacy
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson will try to follow the footsteps of George Kittle who turned his minimal stats (42/604/10) over his junior and senior seasons at Iowa to produce an exciting start to his NFL career. T.J. flashed more upside in his freshman (24/320/3) and sophomore (49/760/6) seasons at the same school. He’ll bring speed (4.7 40 yards dash at the NFL combine) to the TE position.
Hockenson needs to get stronger to help become a better all-around blocker. His route running grades well, which will allow him a winning able window over the short areas of the field plus have the wheels to test a defense deep. T.J. looks explosive if given space with the ball in the open field plus his hands will be assets. At the very least, a two-down pass catcher early in his career with more playing time available if he can handle his responsibilities run blocking. Last year the Lions’ TEs caught 42 passes for 458 yards and four TDs on 60 targets, which was well below the TE opportunity in 2017 (75/803/7). Matthew Stafford will throw to the ball to the TE if he has talent at the position. Hockenson should finish his rookie season as a top 12 TE with a floor of 60 catches for 700+ yards and 5+ TDs.
Other Options: Jesse James, Logan Thomas, Isaac Nauta, Jerome Cunningham
Kicker
Matt Prater
There’s one thing a Fantasy owner should know about Prater; he’s one of the best legs from long range. Over the last four seasons, he made 22 of his 29 kicks from 50 yards or longer with elite success in Detroit (25-for-34) and 46-for-61 in his career (75.4 percent). Matt made 83.8 percent of his field goals in his career with improved success in five of the last six seasons (96.2, 91.7, 86.1, 85.7, and 87.5). 2016 was his best opportunity in both attempts (36) and made FGs (31) with strength in 2017 (30-for-35) and 2018 (28-for-32). Prater is 137-for-143 in extra points over the last four years. Top 12 kicker with more upside if Detroit improves as expected offensively.
Detroit Lions Defensive Schedule
The Lions have an excellent schedule for their run defense based on last year’s stats. They have nine games (ARI, PHI, NYG, OAK, TB, MIN X 2, and GB X 2) vs. teams that struggled to run the ball last year while not facing one team that appears to dominate in the run game. Detroit will face multiple top RBs, so their defense will need to repeat their success vs. the run to continue to hold an edge in this area.
Their season starts against the Cardinals, which was one of the weaker passing teams in 2018. The change at QB in Arizona should be positive. Over the rest of the season, Detroit has four favorable games (DAL, WAS, and CHI X 2) for their pass defense. The Lions will be challenged in nine other games (LAC, PHI, KC, NYG, TB, GB X 2, and MIN X 2) in the passing game.
Detroit Lions Defense
The Lions ranked 10th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (1,761) with 11 TDs and nine runs over 20 yards. Runners gained only 4.4 yards per rush while averaging 25.2 rushers per game.
Detroit jumped to 8th in passing yards allowed (3,599) with 29 TDs and seven Ints. Their defense picked up 43 sacks with only 50 catches over 20 yards.
Defensive Line
DT Damon Harrison recorded 81 tackles with 3.5 sacks over 17 games in 2018 while playing for the Lions and the Redskins. He continues to be a plus defender vs. the run while heading to the bench in may passing situations.
DT A’Shawn Robinson is a second top interior defender against the run game while rarely reaching the QB. Over the last two years, Robinson has 102 combined tackles with 1.5 sacks. He did pick up 13 defended passes in his first two years in the league after getting drafted in the second round in 2016.
DE Trey Flowers played well over the last three seasons for New England leading to 21 sacks and 164 tackles. Flowers offers value on all three downs while grading as a plus vs. the run. Detroit though enough of him to pay him $90 million in the offseason, which will be paid over the next five years.
DE Da’Shawn Hand added to the run defense while starting 11 games in his rookie season. He added 27 tackles and three sacks. Hand looks the part of a high-end run defender with questions with his motor and value as a pass rusher. He offers a foundation piece to a defensive line thanks to his strength and power.
Linebackers
Jarrod Davis played great in his second year in the NFL after getting drafted in the first round in 2017. Davis finished with 100 tackles, six sacks, and five defended passes. Even with his success, Jarrod did have risk vs. the run, which wasn’t helped by a high number of missed tackles.
Jahlani Tavai averaged close to ten tackles over his last three seasons in college. His season ended last year with a shoulder injury in November. Tavai should start in his rookie season after getting drafted in the second round in the 2019 NFL Draft. Jahlani is an attacking player with some value in coverage. His game will get tested when asked to retreat in cut back plays. His hard work and vision should be his best assets early in his career.
Devon Kennard had the best most success of his five-year career in 2018 for the Lions. He delivered a career-high in sacks (7) with 46 tackles. He tends to be a neutral run defender with risk when asked to rush the QB.
Secondary
Darius Slay remains one of the better cover cornerbacks in the league. He held WRs to a low catch rate and limited yards per catch, but he’ll still allow some TDs. Darius wasn’t helpful in run support in 2018. Over the last two seasons, Slay has 43 defended passes and 11 Ints.
CB Justin Coleman signed a four-year $36 million contract in the offseason. Over the last two years for Seattle, Coleman picked up 98 tackles, two sacks, three Ints, and 19 defended passes. Receivers had a low catch rate against him in 2018 with minimal damage in TDs (2).
S Quandre Diggs set a career-high in tackles (78) in 2018 with three Ints and eight defended passes. He grades well in run support while allowing a high catch rate to receivers.
S Tracey Walker should move into the starting lineup after the Lions lost Glover Quin in the offseason. His vision and reads in play development aren’t where they need to be to make an impact early in his career. Walker plays with speed and athletic ability while needing to get stronger. His best value will come when moving forward while projecting as a hitter with growth expected in his tackling.
Lions Fantasy Defense Outlook
Even with a high ranking in run and pass defense in 2018, the Lions showed risk in some key stats, which makes a repeatable season unlikely. They appear to have run-stopping talent with some upside at the second and third levels of the defense. I view them more as second Fantasy defense than a plug-in and play from week-to-week.