Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Outlook
In this Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
The Bucs appeared to be on the rise in 2016 when they went 9-7, but they played in a division with top talent at every stop. Tampa failed to make the playoffs for the eleventh year in a row with back-to-back seasons with 5-11 records. Their best success as a franchise came from 1997 to 2007 with Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden at head coach.
Over this period, the Buccaneers made the playoffs seven times with a Super Bowl title in 2002. Tampa Bay brought in Bruce Arians to take over as head coach. In 2018, Arians sat on the sidelines after posting a 58-33-1 record in his coaching career with two playoff appearance. Bruce helped the Steelers win two Super Bowl as the offensive coordinator. Arians has 25 years of experience in the NFL.
Offensive Coordinator
Byron Leftwich takes over as the offensive coordinator after working in the same position in Arizona in 2018. Leftwich worked under Arians as the quarterback’s coach in 2017. Last year Tampa climbed to third in offensive yards and 12th in points scored (396). It was the second straight season with improvement on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Coordinator
After failing as the Jets’ head coach (24-40 with no playoff appearances), Todd Bowles landed the defensive coordinator job for the Buccaneers. He worked under Arians in 2013 and 2014 in Arizona while running the defense. Bowles has been a coach in the NFL since 2000. Last year Tampa struggled on defense, leading to 27th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed (464).
Buccaneers Free Agency
Tampa added Blaine Gabbert to take over as the backup quarterback while moving on from Ryan Fitzpatrick. They added RB Andre Ellington, WR Breshad Perriman, and G Earl Watford to their offense.
Their most significant lost looks to be WR Adam Humphries plus WR Jacquizz Rodgers, TE Alan Cross, and T Leonard Wester.
On defense, the Bucs lost DE Gerald McCoy, DE Vinny Curry, DT Mitch Unrein, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Adarius Taylor, LB Cameron Lynch, S Andrew Adams, CB Brent Grimes, CB Javien Elliott, and CB Josh Shaw.
They signed DE Ndamukong Suh, LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Deone Bucannon, LB Corey Nelson, LB Hunter Dimick, and S Kentrell Brice. Suh is the player with a chance to offer the most impact value.
Buccaneers Draft Picks
In the focus of the 2019 NFL Draft for Tampa was the defensive side of the ball. Over the first five rounds, the Buccaneers added LB Devin White, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Jamel Dean, S Mike Edwards, and DE Anthony Nelson.
First Round pick, 5th overall: LB Devin White, LSU
White brings an electric skillset thanks to his speed (4.42 four yards dash), strength, and quickness. He comes to the NFL as an undersized player (6’0’ and 237 lbs.) with a short resume of experience. Devin has playmaking ability, which plays well attacking the line of scrimmage. His vision is lacking while still overthinking after the snap.
Second Round pick, 39th overall: DB Sean Bunting, Central Michigan
Bunting is a second player brought to the NFL with a speed skill set. His game projects to have upside in press coverage with a good feel for route development. Sean needs to get stronger with some questions with his change of direction value. He’ll add value in run support while being alert in his reads in coverage.
Third Round pick, 94th overall: CB Jamel Dean, Auburn
Dean has battled knee injuries in his college career, which brings risk in his game. His speed is elite (4.3 forty) with the size (6’1” and 205 lbs.) and cover skills to help in all areas of the game. Jamel needs to add toughness to his game plus more attack coming out of his breaks in coverage.
Third Round pick, 99th overall: DB Mike Edwards, Kentucky
Nelson isn’t where he needs to be in power and strength, but he does have the foundation skill set to add pass-rushing value. Anthony plays hard with quickness off the snap. His hands aren’t where they need to be while also lacking depth in his pass-rushing moves. Nelson will be challenged at the next level by more talented players.
Fourth Round pick, 107th overall: DE Anthony Nelson, Iowa
Fifth Round pick, 145th overall: K Matt Gay, Utah
Tampa took another swing at a kicker in the fifth round with Matt Gay. He has a big leg, which plays well on kickoffs and long field goals. Gay is slow to the ball, creating too many blocks, which will be corrected with improved technique.
Sixth Round pick, 208th overall: WR Scott Miller, Bowling Green
WR Scott Miller was the choice in the sixth round. He’s an undersized (5’9” and 174 lbs.) slot receiver who offers elite speed and quickness. Miller plays hard with fight in his game while needing to clean up his release, which may be corrected with more bulk and strength. His route running gives him a chance while needing to put his work in the weight room to make it in the NFL.
Seventh Round pick, 215th overall: DT Terry Beckner, Missouri
With their last pick in the seventh round, the Buccaneers drafted DT Terry Beckner. A couple of knee injuries and question commitment to the game led to Beckner sliding in the draft. He looks a like space eater with limited range. His game loses value when asked to move due to losing his foundation. More of a run stopper than a pass rusher who needs frequent stops at the fueling station.
Offensive Line
Tampa ranked 29th in rushing yards (1,523) in 2018 with 11 TDs and only five runs over 20 yards. They averaged 3.9 yards per carry with 24.3 attempts per game.
The Bucs led the NFL in passing yards (5,125) with 36 TDs and 26 Ints. Their offensive line allowed 41 sacks and 109 QB hits. Tampa gained 8.6 yards per pass attempt, but they had 71 catches over 20 yards (2th) and 14 completion over 40 yards (4th).
LT Donovan Smith
Smith continues to underperform his draft value (second round in 2015). He started every game his career since being drafted. Over the last two seasons, Smith has been about a league average player in pass protection. His value run blocking continues to slide where he can now be considered a liability.
LG Ali Marpet
Marpet played well in 2016 and 2017 with success in all areas. Last year he lost his way in the run game, which may be helped by a better running back on the roster. He finished 2018 with strength in his pass blocking. The Bucs drafted him in the second round in 2015.
C Ryan Jensen
Jensen took over at center last season after showing improvement with the Ravens in 2017. His pass blocking projects to be about league average while showing weakness previous year in the run game.
RG Caleb Benenoch
Benenoch made 16 starts last year, which was his first full time starting opportunity of his career. He finished as a liability in all areas, which points to Tampa looking for a better option going forward in 2019.
RT Demar Dotson
Dotson peaked in 2013 while following up with four seasons that ranked above the league average, but he did miss many games due to various injuries. In 2018, Dotson struggled in run blocking. He played well in pass protection for the fourth time in his career. A sign of decline could be the jump in penalties (4). At best, a league average player at this point of his career.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-Line Fantasy Outlook
Teams in the NFL don’t have a high level of success on offense with a weak link at left tackle. Smith remains a problem as well as multiple options in the starting lineup. The run game looks to have more risk. This offensive line ranks in the bottom 25 percent for me.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Buccaneers Schedule Fantasy Outlook
Tampa only has three outlier games for their rushing offense in 2019. They’ll struggle in three contest (HOU and NO X 2) with their best success coming vs. the Cardinals.
Their pass scheduled looks to be neutral. The Bucs will be challenged in three games (ARI, TEN, and JAX). Tampa has two favorable matchups vs. the Saints, but I expect New Orleans to be improved on defense. Their only game of interest in the passing game comes against the Texans.
Tampa Bay Offense Outlook
Tampa would love to run the ball better to take the pressure off their young, restructured defense. Unfortunately, game score will lead to a ton of passing attempts. In 2018, the Bucs ran the ball 38.4 percent of the time while ranking fourth in the NFL in passing attempts (625).
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston
Fair Evaluation: Only a backend QB2 until he improves his decision making in the red zone.
Heading into his fifth season in the NFL, Winston lost the feel of a franchise quarterback. Last Tampa threw the ball a ton, but Jameis was outshined too many times by veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Over his previous 22 starts, he has 6-16 record while gaining 7.9 yards per pass attempt. In his nine starts, Winston passed for over 300 yards in five contest while producing only two games with more than two TDs. He averaged 38 passes in his starts. His season started with ten Ints and only six TDs over his first 148 pass attempts.
Tampa lacks pass-catching talent at RB, and they lost two of their top four WRs (Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson) in the offseason. They need a healthy season from a developing TE O.J. Howard. Jameis lacks a WR3 of value while expecting his top two WRs to be productive. I only see about 4,000 passing yards with a chance at 27 to 30 TDs. I like Bruce Arians as a head coach, which may lead to more upside than I’m willing to project in late June.
(From Twitter: Jameis Winston might be a perfect fit for Bruce Arians’ vertical passing attack. Winston is the only QB to average 10+ air yards per pass attempt since 2016. Just behind him on the list? Arians’ QB in Arizona, Carson Palmer.)
Other Options: Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin, Nick Fitzgerald
Running Backs
Ronald Jones
Fair Evaluation: Jones is only an RB3 with a low ceiling and questions with his value in the passing game. With 250 touches, Ronald should gain between 1,000 and 1,100 yards with a chance at six to eight TDs.
His rookie season ended up being a disaster. After being inactive over the first three games due to weakness in his play over the summer, Tampa gave him a chance off the bench in Week 4, but he gained only 28 combined yards with one catch. Over his next three contests, Ronald gained only 48 yards with one TD and five catches on 14 touches before injuring his hamstring.
Over three seasons at USC, Jones gained 4,242 combined yards with 42 TDs and 32 catches. His best success came in his junior season in 2017 when he gained 1,737 yards with 20 TDs and 14 catches on 275 touches. Ronald added more bulk in 2017, and it helped his explosiveness in the trenches. He runs with patience and quickness, but his move to the second level of the defense can be explosive when he able to get full strides with his legs. Jones offers subtle cuts and shoulder fakes to create separation in the open field. His appears to stall in short areas when he doesn’t have the space to open up his stride.
I like his vision and his ability to hit the gas when Ronald sees daylight. He showed hands catching ability, which gives him a chance to be much better than in the passing games at the next level. His ability to pass protect will help him on third downs.
Jones’ Fantasy Outlook
As much as like his upside, I have to take in the weakness of the Bucs’ offensive line. Jones will be the top RB on Tampa in 2019, but he will struggle in games vs. defense with strength against the run and a plus defensive line. The change in coaching staff gives him a much cleaner opportunity while already receiving positive reports in the early OTAs. Last year Tampa’s RBs gained 1,530 combined yards with nine TDs and 68 catches on 372 touches.
Peyton Barber
Fair Evaluation: Only a backup player for me while restraining to roster him on any team even with a favorable price point. His lack of explosiveness shines brightly in his career NFL resume (3.8 yards per rush).
Tampa gave Barber plenty of chances in 2018, which showed why he doesn’t deserve a starting job in the NFL. He gained 871 yards on 234 carries with five rushing TDs, but his lack of success per carry (3.7) is the glowing signal to push him to a backup role in 2019. Peyton caught 20 of his 29 targets for 92 yards and a TD, but again, he lacked success in big plays (4.6 yards per catch). He made 16 starts last year, leading to 254 touches.
(Update 7/2: A recent report from The Athletic’s Greg Auman said that Barber is “certainly likely” to finish with more yards than Ronald Jones.)
Other Options: Andre Ellington, Dare Ogunbowale, Bruce Anderson
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Wide Receivers
Mike Evans
Fair Evaluation: The downgrade at WR in Tampa this year should lead to an uptick in targets for Big Mike, but I expect regression his yards per catch. His floor should be 90 catches for 1,300 yards with a chance at double-digit TDs.
The best part about the success of Evans in 2018 was his growth in his catch rate (62.3), which may be more a result of Ryan Fitzpatrick than Jameis Winston. Last year he only had two more targets than 2017 (136), but Mike finished with 88.30 more Fantasy points in PPR leagues. In each of his five years in the NFL, Evan gained over 1,000 yards while averaging 79 catches per season. He’s scored 40 TDs in his 77 career games. In 2019, he set career highs in receiving yards (1,524) and yards per catch (17.7).
Last year he had eight games with over 100 yards receiving and ten games with six catches or more. Over the last eight games of the year, Evans averaged only 7.5 targets per game.
From Twitter: Mike Evans has had five straight seasons of 1000+ yards to start his career. His QBs have been: Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston. He’s the same age as Kenny Golladay.
Chris Godwin
Fair Evaluation: Godwin should receive 120+ targets leading to 75+ catches for 1,100+ yards and value in TDs, which make him a WR2 in PPR leagues in 2019.
Over his first two years in the NFL, Godwin only had seven starts in 32 games. He played well in his rookie season (34/525/1) off the bench with growth in 2018 (59/842/7). Last year Chris averaged almost six targets per game with six games of value (5/56/1, 5/74/1, 6/56/1, 7/103, 5/101/1, and 6/114/2). Godwin did struggle in six games (2/32, 2/40, 1/13, 0/0, and 3/39). Tampa started him over the last five games, which led to 15 catches for 267 yards and three TDs on 34 targets.
Over his last two seasons at Penn State, Godwin caught 128 passes for 2,083 yards and 16 TDs. His game will add an exciting dynamic to Tampa’s passing attack. Chris has the speed to beat a defense deep while showing a willingness to work the middle of the field. His first step and release will be challenged against press coverage, but he does have enough quickness and route-running ability to create separation over the short areas of the field. His hands are an edge, and he will catch many jump balls.
Last year the Bucs’ WRs caught 263 passes with 4,014 yards and 24 TDs on 416 targets.
Update 8/10/2019: Chris Godwin will have the best opportunity of his career in 2019, and Godwin plays on the opposite side of a top WR. He should see much weaker coverage, and his game is built to make scoring plays in the red zone. Fantasy owners have pushed his ADP up almost a full round in August while many top Fantasy owners consider him a breakout player this season.
Justin Watson
Fair Evaluation: Player to follow this summer as he may emerge as the WR3 option for Tampa in 2019.
Watson had an impressive career at Penn where Watson improved in every season. He brings size (6’3” and 225 lbs.) to the wide receiver position while flashing better than expected speed (4.40) on his pro day. His game played well in college due to his TE type frame, but his initial quickness may lead to a tighter passing window in the pros. His route running and hands project well, but Justin needs to add more to his base foundation skill set. He works hard with the smarts to address his weakness. His next step is proving he can beat better players in the NFL. In his rookie season, Justin only had one catch for five yards on three targets.
Breshad Perriman
Fair Evaluation: Only a deep threat while being a tough Fantasy ride.
At this point in his career, Perriman will go down as a bust. The Ravens drafted him in the first round in 2015. After a respectable rookie campaign (33/499/3) even with a short catch rate (50 percent), Breshad only has 26 catches for 417 yards and two TDs on 60 targets in 2017 and 2018. Tampa would like him to fill some of the lost void created by DeSean Jackson moving to the Eagles.
Scott Miller
Fair Evaluation: His skill set will replace Adam Humphries once he develops.
Over his last three seasons at Bowling Green, Miller caught 208 passes for 2,838 yards and 23 TDs highlighted by his success in 2018 (71/1148/9). Scott will have slot value for Tampa once he adds more strength. Last year Miller added big-play ability after working as a possession type WR earlier in his career.
Other Options: Bobo Wilson, K.J. Brent, Anthony Johnson, DaMarkus Lodge, Cortrelle Simpson
Tight Ends
O.J. Howard
Fair Evaluation: I don’t like his injury path, but I can’t help but love his upside. With 16 games played, O.J. will catch 70+ balls for 1,000+ yards and a chance to score double-digit TDs.
Even with short targets (4.8 per game) over his ten games played in 2018, Howard was well on his way to a productive season at TE. O.J. finished with seven games with double-digit Fantasy points in PPR leagues (3/96/1, 6/72, 4/62/1, 5/67, 4/68/1, 4/53/2, and 5/78) thanks to his big-play (16.6 yards per catch) and scoring ability (five TDs). Over 24 games in his career, Howard scored 11 TDs with strength in his catch rate (69.0). His season ended in Week 11 due to a broken right ankle that didn’t require surgery.
In 2017, his season ended late in December with an injury to the same ankle. Earlier in the year, O.J. also left a game early with a knee issue. Last year the TEs in Tampa caught 73 passes for 911 yards and 11 TDs on 105 targets, which was well below their success in 2017 (84/1124/13 on 124 targets). This year the TE position will be the third option in the passing game for the Bucs with Howard scheduled to be the most reward.
8/18/2019: Injuries have ended O.J. Howard’s first two seasons in the NFL prematurely. Over his first 24 games of his career, Howard has 60 catches for 997 yards and 11 TDs on 87 targets. In 2018, Howard gained over 20 yards on 11 of his 34 catches while receiving only 4.8 targets per game. Tampa lost a couple of WR options in the offseason, which points to a bump in chances for O.J. in 2019. Impact upside if he plays a full season of games. Our projections in mid-August have him ranked fourth at TE (72/1064/6).
Cameron Brate
Fair Evaluation: A viable handcuff for O.J. Howard and I wouldn’t rule out a rebound in value if the WR3 and WR4 in the Bucs offense don’t emerge.
After two nice seasons (57/660/8 and 48/591/6), Brate looked like a lost soul in 2018 even with a starting role late in the season. He caught 30 of his 49 targets for 289 yards and six TDs. His catch rate (61.2) regressed for the third straight year while also setting a career-low in yards per catch (9.6). Cameron failed to catch over three passes in any game, and he never reached the 40-yard mark in receiving yards.
Other Options: Antony Auclair, Jordan Leggett, Tanner Hudson, Donnie Ernsberger
Kicker
Matt Gay
Fair Evaluation: May surprise with playable value at times if he has success early in the year from long range.
Over two seasons at Utah, Gay made all 95 of his extra points with 56 of his 65 field goals (86.2 percent) crossing the uprights. His leg offers length and accuracy for a team that needs someone to stabilize the position. In 2018, Tampa scored 49 TDs while creating 27 field goal chances. I don’t expect the Bucs to run the ball well in the red zone, which helps the overall field goal chances in 2019. Matt should win the job, but a rookie kicker is tough to trust in the Fantasy market.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive Schedule
Tampa only has one plus matchup (ARI) and three mid-tier contests (NYG and ATL X 2) vs. teams that struggled to the run ball in 2018. Their toughest contest projects to be against Seattle. The Bucs face two other teams (CAR and NO) that ran the ball last year.
The Buccaneers have a neutral schedule for their pass defense. They’ll struggle against the Giants, the Rams, the Colts, and the Falcons (2). Tampa will have an edge in four other games (TEN, SEA, JAX, and ARI) in the passing game.
Buccaneers Defense
Fair Evaluation: Their young talent will improve as the season moves on, but too many of their options lack pedigree. Avoid for me in all games in the Fantasy games.
The Buccaneers ranked 24rd in the NFL defending the run (1,983 yards) while allowing 19 TDs and 74 runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 4.7 yards per rush with 26.6 attempts per game.
Tampa climbed to 26th in passing yards allowed (4,151) yards with only 34 TDs and nine Ints. QBs gained 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 56 catches over 20 yards. Their defense had 38 sacks.
Defensive Line
DT Ndamukong Suh has been a top run defender over the last five seasons. Suh chips in with about five sacks per year while adding some value in defended passes (four in 2018). At age 32, he’s still a productive player at his position, but his best days are behind him.
DT Vita Vea was a neutral player vs. the run in his rookie season while delivering only three sacks. Vea is a mountain of a man (6’4” and 347 lbs.) with insane strength. He projects to be a foundation run stopper. His hands will offer an edge while showing the power to drive in the pass rush. His footwork and overall technique need to improve to help his balance. Vita has some quickness, but his range is limited due to his overall speed.
DE Anthony Nelson should start due to minimal talent on the current roster in Tampa. His best value will come in the pass rush helped by his quickness. Strength is a problem while lacking the combination moves in the pass rush.
DE Williams Gholston offers no upside based on his failure over the last two seasons. At best, he’ll be a rotational run defender with minimal production in sacks.
Linebackers
Lavonte David has over 100 tackles in six of his seven years in the NFL with sliding value in pass coverage. Last year he played about league average vs. the run after showing strength in this area in 2017. Over the previous five years, David has four combined sacks.
Devin White adds speed to the linebacking position after Tampa added him in the first round in 2019. If the Bucs had space-eater upfront, White could be a missile attacking the line of scrimmage vs. the run and in the pass rush.
Shaquil Barrett will help vs. the run with risk in coverage. He projects as a rotation player on early downs. Noah Spence should rotate with him off the bench with Tampa hoping for production in the pass rush.
Carl Nassib had a career in sacks (6.5) in his first year with the Bucs while being a neutral run defender.
Cornerbacks
CB Carlton Davis made 12 starts in his rookie season. He failed to intercept a ball while picking up 40 tackles and four defended passes. Davis is a CB that excels in press coverage, which will be an asset in the red zone. His overall skills in coverage need improvement in his technique. Carlton will get beat for long plays when quickness beats him off the line. His vision in off coverage is a tick below the needed success to win against top NFL WRs. Davis will struggle when asked to cover a full pass route tree. If he didn’t allow four TDs last year, Davis would have ranked closer to the league average at his position.
CB Vernon Hargreaves only played one game in 2018 due to a torn labrum in his shoulder. Tampa drafted him in the first round in 2016, but he’s yet to deliver a successful season. In his rookie season, he allowed a ton of yards with tremendous catch rate. His best skill set comes in coverage while coming up short when asked to defend the run due to too many missed tackles.
Safeties
S Justin Evans played well over ten games before suffering a toe injury in Week 10 in 2018 ending his season. Tampa selected Evans in the second round in 2017. His best value comes attacking the line of scrimmage against the run and in pass coverage. Justin is a playmaker with big-hitting ability. Evans needs to improve his reads in the deep position. His speed grades as an edge while needing to add more bulk. He finished with 59 tackles, two defended passes, and one Int while helping in run support.
S Jordan Whitehead made 11 starts in his rookie season after the Bucs selected him in the fourth round in 2018. Whitehead has the reverse skill set of the cornerbacks chosen earlier in the draft. He lacks the size (5’10” and 198 lbs.) to be a physical press player, but Jordan makes up for it with his strength and willingness to attack the run game. Whitehead can handle slot WRs and TEs in coverage while needing to improve his vision and cover skills off the ball. Jordan is more of a hitter than a playmaker. Tampa converted him to safety where he struggled vs. run while holding WRs to short yards per catch.
Buccaneers Fantasy Defense Outlook
This defense is loaded with risk. Tampa tried to beef up the interior of their defensive line vs. the run, but they lack pass rushers on the outside with a ton of youth on the roster.