New Orleans Saints Team Outlook
In this New Orleans Saints Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
Over the last 13 seasons with Sean Payton as the head coach (suspended in 2012) and Drew Brees at quarterback, the Saints finished first or second in the NFL in offense yards nine times. Payton has a career 118-74 record with one Super Bowl title and seven playoff appearances.
Offensive Coordinator
New Orleans scored 504 points (3th) in 2018 while ranking eighth in offensive yards gained. The Saints have been a top two offense in the NFL over in four of the last five years. Pete Carmichael will return for his tenth season as offensive coordinator. He has been in the New Orleans’ system since 2006.
Defensive Coordinator
The Saints returned to the playoffs in two straight seasons after sitting on the sidelines in each of their previous three years. Their growth in wins (11-5 and 13-3) over the last two seasons came more from the defensive side of the ball. Last year New Orleans allowed 353 points (14th) with the same ranking in yards allowed.
Dennis Allen will run the defense for the fifth season. He held the same position for the Broncos in 2011, leading to a head coaching job for the Raiders from 2012 to 2014 where he struggled to have success (8-28). Allen has 17 years of NFL coaching experience.
Saints Free Agency
New Orleans lost RB Mark Ingram to free agency. They replaced him in the roster with Latavius Murray. The only other addition to the offense were TE Jared Cook and C Nick Easton. Both players project as starters.
The Saints also lost RB Daniel Lasco, WR Dez Bryant, WR Josh Huff, WR Tommylee Lewis, TE Benjamin Watson, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, G Jermon Bushrod, and C Josh LeRibeus from their offense.
On defense, they signed DT Malcom Brown, DE Mario Brown, DT Tyrunn Walker, and CB Marcus Sherels. Brown should be an improvement to the defense.
New Orleans moved on from DE Alex Okafor, DT Tyeler Davison, DT Jay Bromley, LB Manti Te’o, and CB Kurt Coleman.
Saints Draft Picks
New Orleans didn’t have a first-round draft pick in 2019.
Second Round pick, 48th overall: OL Erik McCoy, Texas A&M
They added C Erik McCoy in the second round. McCoy’s game is built on power and strength, allowing McCoy to handle bull rushers. His range is limited, but Erik does protect his space quickly after the snap. His challenge will come when asked to defend a more significant piece of the field in pass protection. McCoy doesn’t project to offer value in space when asked to block at the second level of the defense.
Fourth Round pick, 105th overall: DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Florida
Gardner-Johnson has multiple tools that grade well, which gives him a chance to be a value in the draft. He brings size (5’11” and 210 lbs.), speed (4.48 forth), and strength to the NFL. Chauncey is athletic with upside vs. the run and in coverage. He’ll struggle with quick WRs with power in their route running. Gardner-Johnson does lack instincts on his first read while doing a decent job reading the QB in the deep zone. His quickness isn’t ideal for his overall skill set.
Sixth Round pick, 177th overall: S Saquan Hampton, Rutgers
Hampton comes to the NFL with questions with his value in run support and pass coverage. He needs to get to stronger while offering a feel for play pursuit vs. the run. In coverage, Saquan tends to let the play come to him rather than attack receivers coming out of their breaks. If in the right position, Hampton does offer some playmaking ability.
Seventh Round pick, 231st overall: TE Alize Mack, Notre Dame
Mack has strength, but he lacks the fight to do the dirty work in the blocking game. It’s almost like he plays with a pretty boy feel. His route running is limited with the hands to make catches in traffic. Alize isn’t a playmaker after the catch, but he does have the speed to make deep plays down the seam.
Seventh Round pick, 244th overall: LB Kaden Elliss, Idaho
Elliss is a tweener at linebacker. His speed doesn’t support his lack of size (6’2” and 238 lbs.). Kaden can make plays rushing the QB and provide some help in pass coverage. His father coaches for the Saints, which makes him an interesting late selection by New Orleans.
Offensive Line
The Saints finished 6th rushing yards (2,025). New Orleans scored 49 rushing TDs over the last two seasons with 26 coming in 2018. They lost some of their explosiveness in the run game last year (4.3 yards per rush with nine runs over 20 yards and one carry over 40 yards. Their offense averaged 29.4 rushes per game.
New Orleans fell to 12th in the NFL in passing yards (4,042) with 32 TDs and seven Ints. They had 59 completions over 20 yards while gaining yards per pass attempt (8.0). The Saints averaged only 32.4 passes per game, which was well below their passing attack in 2016 (42.1). Their offensive line allowed 20 sacks and 52 QB hits.
LT Terron Armstead
Armstead was one of the best players at his position in 2015 while playing at an elite level last year in pass protection. His run blocking showed growth last year. He missed four games last year, and injuries have been the problem in his career. He’s never played a full game in his career.
LG Andrus Peat
Peat still hasn’t developed into the player New Orleans thought he would after getting drafted in the first round in 2015. Andrus improved in his second year, but he struggled in all areas in 2017 with more regression last year. His job is at risk.
C Erik McCoy
McCoy should move into the starting lineup quickly after getting drafted in the second round this year. He’ll help add fire to a quick hitting run game up the middle with some questions with his range in pass protection. Drew Brees doesn’t get sacked much, so McCoy should still be an upgrade in all areas in 2019.
RG Larry Warford
Warford played his best ball in his rookie season with the Lions after getting drafted in the third round in 2013. Last year he struggled in the run game where he could be called a liability in that area. His pass protection grades well in every year in the league while shining the brightest early in his career.
RT Ryan Ramczyk
Ramcyzk played well in his first two years in the NFL after the Saints drafted him in the first round in 2017. Ryan is very skilled in the techniques needed to have success at his position while adding athletic ability. Ramczyk should be a plus in all areas going forward.
New Orleans Saints O-Line Fantasy Outlook
Over the last two seasons, the Saints’ offensive line allowed only 40 combined sacks with exceptional success in rushing TDs (49) over this span. New Orleans has three players that project as assets while the left guard position is going to be an issue. I expect the center position to come in at the league average.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Saints Schedule Fantasy Outlook
New Orleans faces three opponents (HOU, DAL, and CHI) that played well defending the run in 2018. Their only matchup that projects to be a huge plus is against the Cardinals.
They have five mid-tier contest (HOU, TB X 2, and ATL X 2) vs. teams that have some risk defending the pass. The Saints do have three straight games (JAX, CHI, and ARI) against defenses with success defending the pass last year plus a winnable game (TEN) in Week 16.
New Orleans Offense Outlook
The Saints won a lot of games last year, which helped their rushing attempts and rushing TDs. At the same time, they regressed for the second straight year in passing yards and passing attempts. Their defense is improved, and they did a pass catching TE of value. A Fantasy owner can expect a dynamic run game with plenty of production in TDs.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees
Fair Evaluation: The key to the rebound of Brees as a passer will come with the development of his secondary WRs. He has an elite passing catching back, a stud WR1, and TE with upside in the passing game. If he finds a fourth option at WR, his passing attempts will push back to above the league average. Either way, his starting point for me in 2019 is about 4,200 passing yards with 30 TDs.
It was interesting to see Brees attempted his lower number of passes (489) since 2004, with regression in his completions (364) for the second straight year. He set a career high in completion rate (74.4) helped by high number catches (108) and attempts (143) to the RB position. Drew finished with 3,992 passing yards and 32 TDs, which was well below his expected value and results from the previous six years (5,141 passing yards and 38 passing TDs per year) before 2017.
Brees passed for over 300 yards in six games with seven games with three TDs or more. Over his last four games of the year, Drew only had three passing TDs. The bottom line here is that Brees continues to have regression in his opportunity in the passing due to growth in the run game, especially in TDs (26).
Last year season Drew passed both Peyton Manning and Brett Favre in career passing yards while hoping to hold off Tom Brady in his career to be the top passing QB in NFL history. He enters 2019 in a tight battle with Brady in career TDs (520 and 517) with Brett Favre (539) expecting to concede the number one spot at some point this year. The structure of the offensive in New Orleans changed in a big way over the last couple of seasons with the emergence of Alvin Kamara and improvement in the run game.
Other Options: Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, J.T. Barrett
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara
Fair Evaluation: If the Saints find their rhythm in the passing game, Alvin will regain his big-play ability while offering more upside in TDs and yards.
With Mark Ingram suspended for four games, Kamara busted out of the gates with 611 combined yards with six TDs and 35 catches with exceptional value in the passing game (35/336/1). Over his last 12 games, Kamara never rushed for over 90 yards in any games while also losing his explosiveness in the passing game (under 50 yards receiving in 11 contests). On the year, he gained over 100 combined yards in seven games while averaging 18.3 touches per game. His value in the passing game remains high (81/709/4) while falling short of expectation in the run game (194/883/14). In his two years in the NFL, Alvin has 31 TDs in 31 games.
New Orleans will rotate in a second back on early downs plus run those gimmick plays with Taysom Hill at the league line. At a minimum, Kamara will see growth in his opportunity by ten percent. His starting point for me in 2019 is 300+ touches for 1,900 combined yards with a run at 20+ TDs and 90+ catches.
Latavius Murray
Fair Evaluation: Worth a handcuff play for Kamara owners, but his draft gap has to be wide enough to avoid missing out on a more talented RB3 option. Murray currently has an ADP of 104, which is too high for my expected projections.
Last year the Saints’ RB gained 2,705 combined yards with 26 TDs and 108 catches on 501 touches. Murray will get between 125 and 175 touches, but he will not become the new version of Mark Ingram. Latavius is a big back (6’3” and 230 lbs.) who delivered about 820 rushing yards and eight TDs over the last four seasons while offering some value in the passing game (111/740). Over this span, Murray averaged only 4.0 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per catch.
Over the last two seasons with Alvin Kamara on the Saints’ roster, Mark Ingram averaged 16.2 touches per game. Latavius will catch some balls and steal rushing TDs, but his upside can’t be much more than 12 touches per game. I’ll set his bar at 750 combined yards with six to eight TDs with a chance at 30+ catches.
Other Options: Dwayne Washington, Javorius Allen, Devine Ozigbo, Matt Dayes
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Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas
Fair Evaluation: Stud of studs with a huge floor and higher ceiling. I expect 120+ catches for 1,500+ yards and a possible dozen TDs. Michael will be drafted in the middle of the first-round in PPR leagues as top five WR.
Over three seasons in the NFL, Thomas improved in each year (92/1137/9, 104/1245/5, and 125/1405/9). His most impressive stat in 2018 was his amazing catch rate (85.0). He led the NFL in catches (125) while ranking 9th in WR targets (147). Michael had ten catches or more in six games, but he also had between four and five catches in seven other games. His success last year led to him finishing 6th in WR scoring in PPR leagues. Over 47 games in his NFL career, Thomas averaged about 17.7 Fantasy points per game with a push to 19.84 in 2018. Volume WR who would be helped by an increase in passing attempts by the Saints.
Ted Ginn
Fair Evaluation: Pretty much a similar player as Tre’Quan Smith with his experience and speed giving him the early track to prove his worth.
Ginn struggled to stay healthy in 2018 due to right knee injury that required surgery in mid-October. His season started with three steady games (5/68/1, 4/55, and 3/12/1). After returning from a ten-game injury vacation, Ted caught 11 passes for 176 yards on 21 targets in his three games late in the year. Over the two previous years, Ginn had serviceable value (54/752/4 and 53/787/4). At age 34, his days of improvement look to be over, especially while adding in his knee issue.
Tre’Quan Smith
Fair Evaluation: Possible tough ride while adding flash value in some matchups. Worth a flier as WR6 in PPR leagues.
In his rookie season, Smith caught 28 of his 44 targets for 427 yards and five TDs. He showed explosiveness in two games (3/111/2 and 10/157/1) with both games coming at home. The Saints gave him seven starts, but he caught one pass or fewer in four contests. Overall, Tre’Quan had three catches or fewer in 14 games while only having one game with over six targets.
His route running and strength limit his value early in his career. Smith shows a willingness to block in the run game with the wheels and skill set to be a deep threat in the passing game out of the box. Tre’quan won’t beat top physical corners off the line in press coverage. In his junior season at American, Smith caught 59 balls for 1,171 yards and 13 TDs, which led to New Orleans drafting him in the third round in 2018.
With Ted Ginn still on the roster, Tre’Quan will work as the WR3 in the Saints’ offense. His next step is a push for 50+ catches with 750+ yards and some value in TDs.
Cameron Meredith
Fair Evaluation: As of mid-June, Meredith still wasn’t ready for game action. At this point, Cam is only a gamble while waiting for the summer training camp updates. Young enough to find his way while offering the best skill set to work as a WR2 in this offense if he gets healthy.
A torn left ACL cost Meredith all of the 2017 season. He had a full season to recover for 2018, but health was an issue again. In his six games played, Cameron caught nine of his ten targets for 114 yards and one TD while never receiving over 34 snaps in a game. His year ended in Week 9 with a second issue with his left knee that required minor surgery.
Over two two-game stretches in 2016 with the Bears (Week 5 – 9/130/1 and Week 6 – 11/113 plus Week 15 – 9/104 and Week 16 – 9/135/1), Meredith offered impact value while being the best WR on the field for Chicago. In those four games, Cam had double-digit targets in each game (12, 15, 13, and 12). Unfortunately for Fantasy owners, he disappeared in six straight games (1/12, 1/24, 1/50/1, 4/49, and 2/19) starting in Week 7. Over his last 12 games of the season, Meredith had 60 catches for 836 yards and four TDs on 89 targets.
Other Options: Keith Kirkwood, Austin Carr, Simmie Cobbs, Rishard Matthews, Emmanuel Butler
Tight Ends
Jared Cook
Fair Evaluation: I’m going to start with 65 catches for 800 yards with six to eight TDs, which places him as a top-six TE in 2019.
At age 31, Cook had the best season of his career (68/896/6 on 101 targets). He finished with four impact games (9/180, 8/110/2, 7/100/1, and 7/116) plus one other solid game (4/74/1). His success led to him finishing 5th in TE scoring in PPR leagues. Even with his success, Jared posted five games with six Fantasy points or fewer (4/20, 2/10, 2/23, 2/20, and 3/28). Last year TEs in New Orleans caught 63 passes for 735 yards and four TDs on 86 targets. Based on the receiving structure for the Saints, Cook should rank as the number three option in the passing game behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.
Update 8/18/2019: Jared Cook is going to a perfect fit in the Saints’ offense helped by defenses doubling Michael Thomas and fearing Alvin Kamara out of the backfield. In the latest projections at Fulltime Fantasy, Cook is the fifth-ranked TE (73/883/6), which looks to be on the conservative side.
Other Options: Josh Hill, Dan Arnold, Garrett Griffin, Alize Mack
Kicker
Wil Lutz
Fair Evaluation: Wil should be considered a top-five scoring option. They should get over 80 scoring chances a year, but the ability to score rushing TDs in the red zone does lead to many games with just extra points.
In his first three seasons in the NFL, Lutz made 87 of 100 field goals (88.0 percent) plus 148 of his 153 extra points. New Orleans gave him 15 chances from 50 yards or longer leading to nine made kicks. He ranked ninth in kicker scoring in 2016, eighth in 2017, and fourth in 2018. In 2018, he made 93.3 percent of his field goal chances. The Saints scored 60 TDs with 30 field goal chances last year.
New Orleans Saints Defensive Schedule
New Orleans played well vs. the run in 2018. This season they have two tough matchups (LAR and SEA) plus two mid-tier games vs. the Panthers. The Saints have five games (ARI, TB X 2, and ATL X 2) vs. offenses that struggled to run the ball last year.
They’ll struggle in six games (LAR, IND, TB X 2, and ATL X 2) defending the pass. Their best success defending the pass should come in five contests (SEA, JAX, ARI, CHI, and TEN).
Saints Defense
Fair Evaluation: The Saints pushed to 2nd in rushing yards allowed (1,283) with 12 TDs and seven runs over 20 yards. They allowed 3.6 yards per rush with opponents attempting 22.2 rushers per game.
The Saints finished 29th in passing yards allowed (4,302) with 30 TDs and 12 Ints. QBs gained 8.1 yards per pass attempt with 57 completion over 20 yards and 14 catches over 40 yards. Their defense picked up 44 sacks.
Defensive Line
Cameron Jordan has been a top player at his position for three straight seasons. His value vs. the run was at an all-time high in 2018 while delivering 25 sacks over his last 32 games with surprising value defending passes (2017 – 11 and 2018 – 6).
Marcus Davenport picked 22 tackles and 4.5 sacks in his rookie season with success defending the run while playing in 13 games. His best skill is rushing the QB where he flashes upside in power, speed, and quickness. Davenport can help in run support when attacking the line of scrimmage, but his change of direction speed and vision lead to mistakes and missed tackles. Marcus needs to develop his hands in heavy traffic zone to create more space to make plays. New Orleans drafted him in the first round in 2018.
Malcom Brown lost his way in his fourth season with the Patriots. He played well versus the run before last year with minimal value rushing the QB. The Saints may use him as an early down option against the run while looking for more upside on third downs rushing the quarterbacks.
Sheldon Rankins set career highs in tackles (40) and sacks (8) with growth in each in the NFL after getting drafted in the first round in 2016.
Linebackers
Demario Davis has over 100 tackles in four of his seven years in the NFL while never missing a game in his career. Last year he had the most success of his career vs. the run while adding five sacks for the second straight year. Demario is a much better player over the last two seasons than he showed over his first five years in the league.
Alex Anzalone struggled vs. the run with no real upside in sacks (three in his career over 20 games). Last year Anzalone finished with 59 tackles, two sacks, one Int, and two defended passes.
A.J. Klein played much better in 2018 after showing more risk than reward over his first five years in the NFL. The strength of the Saints’ defensive line was a big part of his growth. Klein finished with 70 tackles with a couple of sacks while grading a neutral player.
Secondary
Marshon Lattimore had a step back in coverage after his excellent rookie season. His completion rate against faded while showing some disaster when tested in the deep passing game. Lattimore still finished as an edge in coverage while minimizing the damage in TDs and success creating turnovers. Marshon rarely rushes the QB. Lattimore has the makings of being an elite coverage corner with value in run support. He has elite speed (4.36) with a smooth transition in coverage.
Eli Apple set career highs in tackles (75), two Ints, and defended passes (14) after splitting time between the Giants and the Saints. Apple is a former first-round draft pick (2016) who allows too many mistakes in the deep passing game, but he did show improvement minimizing the damage in TDs allowed. A full season with New Orleans should lead to more growth in 2019.
Vonn Bell is a plus run defender who grades as a positive in all areas. Bell has over 80 tackles in each year in the NFL with 6.5 sacks and nine defended passes in 48 games.
Marcus Williams led the Saints in snaps (1072) in 2018 while grading as a neutral player across the board. In 2018, Williams had 59 tackles, one sack, two Ints, and three defended passes.
Saints Fantasy Defense Outlook
New Orleans has strength in their defensive line while showing high value vs. the run. Their secondary is loaded with young talent that all came into the league as high draft selections. Their linebackers don’t project well, but they can get the job done. The Saints should be a top defense in 2019 with developing value in sacks, which should lead to turnovers. I will be looking to add New Orleans this year while being a value on draft day.