Minnesota Vikings Team Outlook
In this Minnesota Vikings Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
Mike Zimmer will run the franchise for the sixth year. He has a career 47-32-1 record with two playoff appearances. Over the previous six seasons, Zimmer was the defensive coordinator for the Bengals. In 2018, Minnesota underperformed their expected success with an 8-7-1 record, which came on the heels of a great year (13-3 with two playoff wins).
Offensive Coordinator
Over the first three years with Zimmer as head coach, Minnesota ranked 28th, 29th, and 27th in offensive yards. In 2017, the Vikings jumped to 11th in offensive yards and tenth in points scored (382), but they slid to 19th in points allowed (360) and 20th yards gained last year. Their fade on offense led to a coaching change. Kevin Stefanski takes over as offensive coordinator after being promoted to the job in 2018 after Week 14. He held the quarterback’s coaching job for the previous two years after working in the Vikings’ system since 2006.
Defensive Coordinator
Minnesota fell to 9th with the best defense in points allowed (341), which was89 more points allowed than 2017 (252). They ranked fourth in yards allowed after finishing third and first over the two previous years. George Edwards returns for a six-year to run the defense. He held the same job title with the Dolphins for a couple of seasons. Overall, Edwards has 19 seasons of NFL experience.
Vikings Free Agency
The Vikings added Sean Mannion to compete for the backup quarterback job. Minnesota signed WR Jordan Taylor, G Josh Kline, and G Dakota Dozier. Kline has a chance to start.
Minnesota lost QB Trevor Siemian, RB Latavius Murray, WR Aldrick Robinson, G Mike Remmers, G Tom Compton, and G Nick Easton.
The only two additions to their defense were DT Shamar Stephen and CB Duke Thomas. The Vikings parted ways with DT Sheldon Richardson, DE Tom Johnson, S Andrew Sendejo, S George Iloka, and CB Marcus Sherels.
Vikings Draft Picks
Minnesota came out of the draft with 12 players. Seven of those choices were selected in the sixth and seventh rounds.
First Round pick, 18th overall: C Garrett Bradbury, NC State
Bradbury comes to the NFL with plenty of strength and impressive athletic ability for his position. He’ll offer an edge in both run and pass blocking from game one of his career. His next step is adding patience to his skill set.
Second Round pick, 50th overall: TE Irv Smith Jr., Alabama
In the second round, the Vikings decided to add depth at TE with Irv Smith. His skill set is raw with questions with his route running and blocking. Minnesota may be able to get him on the field as a fullback with move value. Smith runs well with the strength and quickness to threaten a defense in the deep passing game. Irv doesn’t come to the NFL with the best hands.
Third Round pick, 102nd overall: RB Alexander Mattison
Surprisingly, Minnesota decided it needed another option at RB by adding Alexander Mattison in the third round. At Boise State, Mattison offered a third-down skill set with a game that is built on power. His top end speed is below NFL standards, but he does have great hands with a feel for the passing game. Alexander has a grinder feel who will earn his value as a north/south runner. He needs to improve in pass protection while having the strength to get the job done.
Fourth Round pick, 114th overall: G Dru Samia
Samia is a second player added who projects to be an edge in strength. He’ll add value to the run game especially on the move helping big plays at the RB position. His foundation in technique needs work in pass protection while needing to add discipline to his movements.
Sixth Round pick, 162nd overall: LB Cameron Smith, USC
Smith doesn’t measure up to the desired frame or skill set at linebacker in the NFL. His edge comes from being a football player who understands the game while playing with vision and quickness. He’s undersized (6’2” and 235 lbs.) while lacking impact speed. Cameron knows his role leading to him being on time to make plays. His lack of physical traits projects him as backup early in his career.
Sixth Round pick, 190th overall: DT Armon Watts, Arkansas
Watts has a run stopper feel, but his vision and instincts push him down a notch in that area. He’s quick off the snap with a disrupter feel. His strength gives him wins when matched up with a single defender. Armon needs more experience along with the eyes to see the flow and development of run plays. Watts will need to prove himself vs. top talent. More of a project than a difference maker early in his career.
Sixth Round pick, 191st overall: DB Marcus Epps, Wyoming
Epps isn’t ready to help an NFL team at safety. He’s undersized (6’0” and 191 lbs.) with question quickness if asked to defend receivers over the short areas of the field. His vision helps his ability to make plays while needing to get stronger to helps in run support. Marcus also has risk in tackling.
Sixth Round pick, 193rd overall: T Olisaemeka Udoh, Elon
With their last pick in the sixth round, the Vikings threw another dart at the offensive line – T Oli Udoh. Minnesota went into the 2019 NFL Draft with the mindset to add power and strength to their rushing offense. Udoh fits the bill while needing to add more real estate to his blowing area due to questionable foot speed. Oli will struggle with speed in pass sets. His technique needs work along with his plan after the snap.
Seventh Round pick, 217th overall: CB Kris Boyd, Texas
Boyd has an interesting combination of speed, strength, and quickness. Kris likes to play a physical style that will be an asset in bump and run coverage plus add support in the run game. He struggled when asked to use a backpedal and then attack the underneath receiver. More of a chaser than an explosive player with limited range in zone coverage.
Seventh Round pick, 239th overall: WR Dillon Mitchell, Oregon
Mitchell has foundation traits to develop into a viable bench option at WR in the NFL, but he needs to commit to the game while working hard to get stronger. His quickness is more an edge than his long speed while also lacking NFL route running. In a way, Dillon comes across as a player who believes he’s better than he really is, which will lead to a short football career at the next level.
Seventh Round pick, 247th overall: WR Olabisi Johnson, Colorado St.
Johnson comes to the pros with strength in his route running. His foundation skill set in speed, strength, and quickness won’t separate him from the pack. Olabisi wants to improve while working hard to understand his game plan and how defenders want to play against him. He’ll have value vs. zone coverage but struggle against physical press cornerbacks. Johnson offers an edge with his hands.
Seventh Round pick, 250th overall: LS Austin Cutting
Cutting spins the ball well, but he has a multi-year commitment to the Air Force.
Offensive Line
The Vikings finished 30th in the NFL in rushing yards (1,453). Game score and a new QB led to a drop of nine rushing attempts per game from 2017. Ball carriers gained only 4.2 yards per rush with nine TDs and 13 runs over 20 yards.
Minnesota had the 13th most passing yards (4,036) with 30 TDs and ten Ints. Their offensive line allowed 40 sacks and 95 QB hits.
LT Riley Reiff
Reiff signed a massive five-year contract ($58.75 million) in March of 2017 despite being only a league average player for the Lions over the last five years. Detroit selected him in the first round in 2012. Over 28 games for the Vikings, Reiff was a league average player in pass protection. He did improve in run blocking in 2018 after struggling the previous year.
LG Pat Elflein
Elflein is a power player with value in both run and pass blocking. His foot speed does limit his blocking window, but he works hard with a high motor. Elflien was a massive liability in both run and pass blocking last year while starting 13 games at center. The Vikings will give him a shot at left guard in 2019. Pat has a lot to prove in the NFL after getting drafted in the third round in 2017. His play over a full season in 2018 project a slight negative across the board.
C Garrett Bradbury
Bradbury should move into the starting lineup after getting drafted in the first round. Scouts love his body control while expecting him to be an upgrade in run blocking. Garrett should hold his own as well in the passing game.
RT Josh Kline
Kline signed with the Vikings in Match after spending the previous three seasons with the Titans. His value as run blocking regressed in each of the last three years while also losing his way in pass protection in 2018. The two previous seasons, Kline was an asset in pass blocking.
RG Brian O’Neill
O’Neill ended up starting 11 games in his rookie season after getting drafted in the second round. O’Neill has the base skillset to start at left tackle once he adds more strength to handle power rushers. He’s athletic with more speed (4.82) than quickness. Brian loses his foundation technique at times with questions about his base. His hands need improvement as well. O’Neill works the best in a quick-hitting run game. Last year Brian played poorly in the run game with too many mistakes in pass protection.
Minnesota Vikings Fantasy O-Line Outlook
I like the addition of Bradbury should be plus for the run game along with a healthy Dalvin Cook. This offensive line has more questions than stars. The foundation skill player on offense should point to plenty of scoring and better play in all areas in the offensive line. Overall, the Vikings have a below-par offensive line that may grow to league average in 2019.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Vikings Schedule Fantasy Outlook
Fantasy owners catch a break in 2019 by missing one game against the Bears. They play Chicago in Week 17 at home, which was expected to be an unfavorable matchup. Minnesota has three other tough games for their rushing offense (PHI, DAL, and CHI). They’ll have the most success running the ball against the Chiefs and the Raiders.
Their pass schedule looks to be about neutral with their best edge coming vs. KC and OAK. The Vikings have five mid-tier contests (LAC, DET X 2, and CHI X 2) for their passing offense.
Minnesota Vikings Offense
The Vikings made a QB change in 2018, but they lost their ability to make plays in the run game. Minnesota ran the ball 37.1 percent of the time while averaging only 22.2 runs per game. Even with talent at QB, WR, and TE, they still need to run the ball at a much higher level. A healthy Dalvin Cook and better play by the offensive line should be the stepping stones to a better offensive season.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins
Fantasy owners that invested in Cousins in 2018 came away with an empty feeling in too many weeks. He finished as the ninth highest scoring QB in four-point TD leagues, but he passed for fewer than 265 yards in nine of his final 11 games. Kirk had two games with over 300 yards passing and two games with 400+ yards with three of those games coming over the first five games. He had three TDs or more in four contests (only two games came over the final 12 games). Cousins did set a career-high in completions (425), completion rate (70.1), and passing TDs (30) while matching his top level in passing attempts (606).
In the end, Kirk gained 4,421 combined yards with 31 TDs and ten Ints. In 2019, he has two studs at WR plus a steady TE and a RB with upside in the passing game. At the bare minimum, Cousin should finish with 4,500+ yards with a run at 35+ TDs. The keys to his success will be the play of his offensive line, and the Vikings’ ability to have success running the ball.
Other Options: Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter, Jake Browning
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook
The Vikings eased Cook into action in September. After the first four games, which included a DNP in Week 3, Cook gained 205 yards with no TD and nine catches while receiving 43 touches. He missed four more games due to a hamstring injury. Over his final five games, Davlin started to show his explosive upside (520 combined yards with three TDs and 21 catches). Over this span, he gained 5.7 yards per rush with one impact game (19/136/2 with one catch for 27 yards). Even with a bump in success, Cook only averaged 17.8 touches per game.
College Career
There’s a lot to like in Cook’s resume at Florida State. He rushed for 4,464 yards on 687 carries over three seasons while scoring 48 TDs. Dalvin even chipped in with 79 catches for 935 yards. His looked more explosive rushing the ball in 2015 (7.4 yards per rush), but he gained an astounding 14.8 yards per catch last season. His running style has something in common with Devonta Freeman, who also went to FSU. The key for his upside will breaking free at the second level of the defense where his vision and his open-field quickness will create huge plays. Cook will make plenty of yards after contact due to his strength and ability to break arms tackles. Dalvin will be a massive threat in the passing game, but he needs to improve his technique and toughness in pass protection.
2019 Outlook
So far in his NFL career, Cook averaged 4.7 yards per rush and 7.7 yards per catch, which shows his explosive upside with a bigger workload. The Vikings have a potent offense with playmakers to move the chains and create scoring chances. The offensive line isn’t great, but it should be improved in 2019. Two years ago, Vikings RBs gained 2,484 yards with 16 TDs and 84 catches despite gaining 3.95 yards per carry. Last year, Minnesota’s backs lost over 18 percent of their opportunity in yards and close to 28 percent of touches. Minnesota will get Dalvin the ball 20+ times a game this year setting up a run at 2,000+ yards with double-digit TDs and 60+ catches. At the very least a top-eight RB this year in PPR leagues, but Cook needs to prove he can stay healthy for a full season.
Over the previous two seasons at Boise State, Mattison gained 2,958 yards with 30 TDs and 55 catches on 569 touches. His success last year (1,588 yards with 17 TDs and 27 catches) was created by volume of touches (329) while showing regression in his yards per rush (4.7) and yards per catch (6.4). He runs with patience with enough quickness to make plenty of plays over the short areas of the field. The Vikings hope he can work as the RB2 while offering more explosiveness than Latavius Murray.
His build and style give Minnesota a natural cover/handcuff to Dalvin Cook. With an ADP well after round 12 in most Fantasy formats, Mattison should be an easy addition for a Fantasy owner rostering Cook. Possible six to eight touches per game leading to about 500 yards with some TDs and catches.
Last year Abdullah played his way out of the league, which led to only four touches for 29 yards and three catches. In his three seasons with the Lions, Ameer offering some value in catches while failing to show enough explosiveness on early downs. Only a veteran back who would be tough to trust over the long haul.
Other Options: Mike Boone, Roc Thomas
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Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen
For the second straight year, Thielen was one hell of a ride early in the year, but he left Fantasy owners at the doorstep of victory in the championship rounds of the high-stakes market. The change to Kirk Cousins helped him set career highs in catches (113), receiving yards (1373), TDs (9), and targets (153) with success in his catch rate (73.9). Over the first eight games, Adam gained over 100 yards in each contest (6/102, 12/131/1, 14/105, 8/135/1, 7/116/1, 11/123/1, 9/110/1, and 7/103/1). He remained steady over the next four games (4/22/1, 7/66, 8/125/1, and 5/28/1).
When the lights turned on in the high-stakes playoffs (Week 14, 15, and 16), the Vikings only looked his way 15 times in three games leading to no TDs and three below-par weeks (5/70, 2/19, and 5/80). Part of his fade was due to a December ankle injury that he played through. Last year the Vikings’ WRs caught 270 passes for 2,969 yards and 24 TDs on 388 targets. His trusted floor has moved to 100+ catches for 1,300+ yards with six to eight TDs. He runs excellent routes with the hands to make plays in tight coverage.
Stefon Diggs
Diggs didn’t have the consistency factor of Adam Thielen, but he did match him in explosiveness at time. When at his best, Stefon posted five high-volume catch games (9/128/2, 11/123, 10/91, 10/119/1, and 13/126/1). On his down days, he had two short contests (4/17 and 3/33) while producing steady value over his final five games (5/49, 4/76, 4/49/1, 2/10/1, and 8/47/1). Diggs missed Week 8 with a knee issue. He set career highs in catches (102), yards (1021), TDs (9), and targets (149) with an exceptional catch rate (68.1).
There’s a lot to like here while also understanding he’s missed nine games in his four-year career. Diggs will be priced high based on his stats last season. With 16 games played, his floor should be 90+ catches for 1,000+ yards and an outside chance at double-digit TDs. His ceiling could be 20 percent high if his path pushes up one more step.
Laquon Treadwell
As the third WR for the Vikings, Treadwell did show growth. He finished with 35 catches for 302 yards and one TDs on 53 targets. Minnesota used him close to the line of scrimmage, leading to 8.6 yards per catch and strength in his catch rate (66.0). Laquon is a former first-round draft pick who has never had a chance to start over the long haul.
Over three years at Mississippi, Treadwell caught 202 passes for 2,393 yards and 21 TDs. His breakthrough season came in his junior year in 2015 when Laquon caught 82 balls for 1,153 yards and 11 TDs. He even completed three passes for 134 yards and a TD. His speed (4.65) is well below league average for his position, but he more than makes up for it in his size (6’2” and 221 lbs.) and power. Treadwell will add scoring value in the red zone. Laquon has great hands where he will win many jumps balls even with a defender in his hip pocket. His route running and feel for defensive positioning will be an asset at the next level.
At this point, Treadwell is only a handcuff to the Vikings’ top two WRs.
Update 8/17/2019: Minnesota looks to be pedaling Laquan Treadwell after underachieving over his first three years in the league after being selected in the first round in 2016.
Chad Beebe
Last season Beebe turned heads in the Vikings’ training camp, but a couple of injuries led minimal playing time in his rookie season (4/39). For the second straight year, Chad received some press in the OTAs for his hard work. Over four years at Northern Illinois, He caught only 64 passes for 930 yards and three TDs. Possession type receiver with a long road to gain meaningful playing time.
Other Options: Jordan Taylor, Dillon Mitchell, Olabisi Johnson, Brandon Zylstra, Jeff Badet
Tight Ends
Kyle Rudolph
The strength of the Vikings’ top two WRs led to Rudolph finishing with short targets (81 and 82) over the previous two seasons, which came after his breakthrough year in 2016 (83/840/7 on 132 targets). When given a chance, Kyle will catch the ball (66.6 percent in his career and 78.0 percent in 2018). Last year he ended up with 64 catches for 634 yards and four TDs, which ranked 7th at the TE position in PPR leagues. Minnesota signed him to a four-year $36 million contract in June.
Even with a respectable ranking at his position, Rudolph scored over ten Fantasy points in only five games (7/72, 5/48/1, 5/57, 7/63, and 9/122/2). Over his other 11 games, he averaged fewer than three catches for about 24 yards per game. When adding in an upside TE2 in the 2019 NFL Draft, Kyle is a tough investment this year in the Fantasy market. He should be the fourth option in the passing game in Minnesota behind the top two WRs and the running back position. Only worth a date, if his price point is just about free on draft day.
Irv Smith Jr.
Based on explosiveness, Smith is a significant drop down for me compared to T.J. Hockenson. He comes to the NFL as an undersized TE (6’2” and 242 lbs.) while offering the speed (4.63 40 yards dash at the NFL combine) to test defenses over the long field. His movements in the 3-cone drill (7.32), 20-yards shuttle (4.33), and 60-yard shuttle appeared to be labored forcing Irv to make his plays with his legs in the open field or the deep passing game. In his junior season at Alabama, he caught 44 passes for 710 yards and seven TDs.
Smith needs to improve on his route running and blocking to earn more value in the passing game at the next level. His talent screams upside if he works on his subtle parts of his game that are needed to own the first ten yards past the line of scrimmage. Either way, his speed alone will help draw attention from defenses over the deep middle of the field and in the end zone. This season the Vikings will use him as their second TE to help stretch the field.
Other Options: David Morgan, Tyler Conklin, Cole Hikutini, Brandon Dillon
Kicker
Dan Bailey
Over his first six years in the league with the Cowboys, Bailey made 89.5 percent of his field goals with strength from 50 yards or more (24-for-35). His leg lost value over the last two seasons (75.0 percent success rate in field goals) with three missed extra points in 59 chances. For multiple seasons in his career, Fantasy owners considered his automatic with his kicks, and a must-own a top-five kicker. In 2019, he’ll look to revive his career in high scoring offense. Last year the Vikings scored 42 TDs while creating 32 field-goal tries.
Update 8/17/2019: After a great first preseason game (4-for-4 in field goal chances including a 55-yarder) with the Ravens, the Vikings acquired Kaare Vedvik to compete for the starting kicking job. Vedvik path to the NFL came via his punting experience at Marshall in 2016 and 2017. In his last year in college, he did get 16 field-goal tries (ten made picks). Big leg, but he needs to prove his value in big moments.
Minnesota Vikings Defensive Schedule
The Vikings’ run defense will be challenged in one game (Seattle) while having six contents (ATL, OAK, PHI, NYG, DET X 2, and GB X 2) vs. teams that underperformed running the ball in 2018. Overall, they have a favorable run schedule.
Their season starts with five games (ATL, GB, NYG, PHI, and KC) over the first nine weeks vs. offenses with strength in their passing plus two more unfavorable contests (LAC and GB) later in the year. Minnesota faces two opponents (WAS and SEA) with weakness throwing the ball. Five other games (DAL, DET X 2, and CHI X 2) look winnable for their pass defense.
Minnesota Vikings Defense
Minnesota ranked 15th in rushing yards (1,815) with 13 TDs and only seven runs over 20 yards. They allowed 4.1 yards per rush with only 27.1 carries per game.
They finished third in the league in passing yards allowed (3,140) with 15 TDs and 12 Ints, QBs gained only 7.0 yards per pass attempts while being sacked 50 times.
Defensive Line
DE Everson Griffin missed five games in 2018, which led to a shape decline in his value in sacks (5.5). Over the previous four years, Griffin picked up 43.5 sacks while averaging about 48 tackles. When at his best, Griffin is about a league average player vs. the run.
DE Danielle Hunter had the best success in his career when he delivered 72 tackles and 14.5 sacks. Over his first three years in the NFL, Hunter was plus run defender, which wasn’t the case in 2018.
DT Linval Joseph continues to offer an edge in run support with minimal impact value rushing the QB. His tackles (58) and sacks (1.0) declined in each of the last two years.
DT Shamar Stephen worked as a rotational player for the Minnesota and Seattle over his five seasons in the NFL. He doesn’t project to offer many wins in any area. His biggest challenge for playing should come from Jaylen Holmes, who has the foundation to be a mover on the interior of a defensive line with some added bulk and strength. His quickness won’t create an edge off the snap while lacking the base technique to earn a full-time job early in his career. For now, a passing down pass rusher with more upside.
Linebackers
Anthony Barr signed a five-year extension in March. Only twice in his five years in the NFL has Barr been a winning player in all areas. In 2018, he had the most success of his carer vs. the run with plenty of pressure on the QB. Anthony does have risk in coverage.
Eric Kendricks has over 100 tackles in each of the last three seasons with fading value in the pass rush (one sack in both 2017 and 2018). Over the previous three years, Eric has 22 defended passes plus two Ints that he returned for TDs.
Ben Gedeon has been only a rotational player in his first two seasons in the NFL. He picked 53 tackles with no sacks in 2018.
Secondary
CB Trae Waynes like to keep WRs in front of him leading to short yards per catch and minimal damage in TDs. His catch rate allowed faded in 2018, but WRs gained low yards after the catch. His overall game is still below his overall draft value (first round in 2015).
CB Xavier Rhodes held WRs to short yards per catch with regression in his catch rate allowed. His overall stats appeared to be line with his previous resume when taking in that he missed two games. Only once in his career has Rhodes been a factor interceptions (2016 – 5).
S Harrison Smith remains one of the best players in the league at his position. Smith is a plus run support while adding some sacks and turnovers.
S Anthony Harris continues to improve defending the run while doing the best job of his career in pass coverage thanks to three Ints and six defended passes.
Vikings Fantasy Defense Outlook
The Vikings have had a top defense in the NFL over the last few seasons, but their top players are starting to get older while not having the right structure on the roster to support decline. They have playmakers at all three levels of the defense, so I can’t dismiss them a viable top ten Fantasy defense. I’d prefer to own than at a discount rather than right for them on draft day.