Los Angeles Rams Team Outlook
In this Los Angeles Rams Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
The change in coaching staff in Los Angeles was a big success in 2017 with follow through last year. LA went from previous in the NFL in scoring in 2016 (224) to first in 2017 (478) with a net gain of 254 points. The Rams had further growth points scored last season (527 – 2nd).
Sean McVay went 24-8 in his two years as the head coach helping the Rams to the postseason in back-to-back seasons with a Super Bowl berth in 2018. Over the previous three years, Sean was the offensive coordinator for the Redskins. McVay has nine seasons of experience in the NFL at age 32. Los Angeles should be excited about their franchise going forward.
Offensive Coordinator
The Rams moved to second in offensive yards after finished last in the NFL in 2015 and 2016. For the second straight, LA will use a duel combination to man the offensive coordinator job. Aaron Kromer moves for offensive line coach to run game coordinator while Shane Waldron gets promoted from TE coach to pass game coordinator.
Based on the structure, Sean McVay should be the in-game play caller. Kromer has 19 seasons of experience in the NFL with a short stint as an interim coach for the Saints in 2012 where he went 2-4. In 2013 and 2014, Aaron held the offensive coordinator job for the Bears. Waldron came through the Patriots’ system with ties to McVay in Washington.
Defensive Coordinator
Los Angeles remained 19th in yards allowed, but they allowed more points (384 – 20th) compared to 12th in 2017 (329).
Wade Phillips led the Broncos to a successful season as the defensive coordinator in 2015 and 2016 leading to the move to the Rams. Wade has 28 years of experience at the same position plus an 82-64 record as a head coach.
Rams Free Agency
The Rams signed QB Blake Bortles, G Jeremiah Kolone, WR Khadarel Hodge, and WR JoJo Natson to their offense. They waived T Justice Powers, T Darrell Williams, T Kyle Murphy, and WR Justin Sumpter.
Their significant loss on defense was DT Ndamukong Suh who signed with Tampa Bay. They released LB Mark Barron, DB Blake Countess, LB Bryce Hager, and DT Tyrell Thompson.
Los Angeles added S Eric Weddle, LB Clay Matthews, DE Morgan Fox, DB Dominique Hatfield, LB Josh Carraway, and LB Ketner Kupp.
Rams Draft Picks
Second Round pick, 61st overall: DB Taylor Rapp, Washington
Rapp plays with power and excellent quickness. His game is built to attack the line of scrimmage while offering a hard-hitting style. Taylor will be challenged if matched up with speed WRs in the deep passing game. His first step and instincts grade well, especially in run support.
Third Round pick, 70th overall: RB Darrell Henderson, Memphis
With their first pick in the third round, LA added insurance at RB with Darrell Henderson. His play speed (4.49 forty) isn’t elite, but Henderson plays with strength while showing the ability to make impact plays. Darrell excels in the open field due to his quickness, vision, and moves. Henderson has a chance to add value in the passing game. His next step is adding patience to his runs to allow his blockers to make plays.
Third Round pick, 79th overall: CB David Long, Michigan
Long has a foundation skill set that projects well as a press corner where his quickness and strength play well. His speed (4.45 forty yard dash) is respectable, but he may struggle over the long field in the deep passing game. David should earn plenty of playing time in his rookie season.
Third Round pick, 97th overall: OT Bobby Evans, Oklahoma
Evans should handle power players at the next level helped by his strength and length. He’s versatile with a foundation in techniques. Bobby is limited if asked to block in space, which will invite risk on the outside vs. speed rushers.
Fourth Round pick, 134th overall: DT Greg Gaines, Washington
In the fourth round, the Rams invested in DT Greg Gaines. His game has plenty of shortfalls, which makes up for with his high energy and gambling style off the snap. Gaines plays with power and limited range. His short arms and questionable footwork will be tough to overcome at the next level.
Fifth Round pick, 169th overall: OT David Edwards, Wisconsin
Edwards is a former QB who offers quickness and athletic ability. His game is more positioned to handle pass protection than run blocking until he gets stronger and improves his technique. David needs to strengthen his hands and his plan vs. power.
Seventh Round pick, 243rd overall: S Nick Scott, Penn St.
Scott entered college as a quarterback while being transitioned to the running back position. Penn State shifted him to the defense after showing success on special teams. Nick comes with explosive speed and playmaking ability. His resume is short on the defensive side of the ball, which requires more work on his technique.
Seventh Round pick, 251st overall: LB Dakota Allen, Texas Tech
Allen is another player who comes to the NFL with quickness and power. Dakota lacks speed, which does limit his range and value when asked to change direction in play pursuit. He’ll offer the best value attacking the line of scrimmage vs. the run. Allen needs to improve his decision making when attacking oncoming ball carriers to avoid being out of position.
Offensive Line
The Rams finished 3rd in rushing yards (2,231) with 23 TDs and 14 runs over 20 yards. Their rushers gained 4.9 yards per carry while averaging 28.7 attempts per game.
LA climbed to 5th in passing yards (4,507) with 32 TDs and 12 Ints. They completed 69 passes over 20 yards with nine catches gaining 40 yards or more. Overall, the Rams gained 8.3 yards per pass attempts. Their offensive line allowed 33 sacks and 73 QB hits.
LT Andrew Whitworth
Whitworth has been a great left tackle over the last 12 years in the NFL. Last year his game produced an edge in pass protection while also rebounding in run blocking. He’ll start the year at age 37 with his best asset coming in pass blocking based on his career resume.
LG Joe Noteboom
Noteboom should start this year after seeing minimal playing time in his rookie season after getting drafted in the third round in 2018. Noteboom has the base skills to excel at the next level, but his play tends to be inconsistent with questions with his strength. Joseph brings athletic ability to the line with reliable technique and plus hands. His growth will come with development in his base while showing more confidence in his game.
C Brian Allen
Allen is a second rookie in 2018 that expects to start in 2019. Last year Allen saw the field on 37 plays while showing more value in pass protection. Brian is a power player with the most upside in the run game. He has limitation in his blocking area due to minimal quickness. His play will have some risk in pass protection when defenders beat him outside his blocking window.
RG Austin Blythe
Blythe played better than expected in 2018 after seeing the field for limited plays in 2016 and 2017 with the Colts and Rams. Blythe is a former seventh-round draft pick Last year he played better than expected in both run and pass blocking while starting 19 games.
RT Rob Havenstein
Havenstein delivered four straight seasons of league average value at right tackle after getting drafted in the second round in 2015. His best success last year came in run blocking helping him become a top player at his position.
2019 Fantasy O-Line Outlook
Overall, this offensive line has two veteran players on the outside while the interior of the line will be in transition in 2019. LA filled in their starting lineup with upside talent, but they need to gain experience to provide the explosiveness shown over the previous two seasons. The Rams have the offensive firepower for this line to rank in the top ten again in 2019 if their new options play up to their college resumes.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Rams Schedule Fantasy Outlook
The Rams have three favorable matchups (CIN and ARI X 2) for the rushing offense with one mid-tier contest (CLE). They’ll be tested in five other games (NO, PIT, CHI, BAL, and DAL).
Their best three games to pass the ball will come against NO, CIN, and TB. Los Angeles has their four toughest contest (CHI, BAL, and ARI X 2) over the final seven weeks of the season.
Rams Offense Outlook
LA ran the ball 44.6 percent of the time in 2018, which led to 28.7 rushing attempts per game. The Rams have a top tier passing attack as well. The questions with Todd Gurley’s knee injury and the changes on the offensive line invites regression in the success of the run game. I like the Rams’ coaching staff and the direction of this team offensively, which points to another top season offensively.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff
Fair Evaluation: His next step is 5,000+ yards with a run at 40+ TDs. His upside is tied to the health of Todd Gurley and the recovery of Cooper Kupp.
After starting his career with an 0-7 record, Goff developed into a top tier QB over the last two seasons leading to a 24-7 record with a Super Bowl appearance in 2018. He set career highs in completions (364), pass attempts (561), passing yards (4,688), completion rate (64.9), and TDs (34). Jared averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt while passing for over 300 yards in six games and over 400 yards in another two other contests. He finished with three TDs or more in six games. Goff struggled to throw TDs over a four-game stretch (207/1, 180/0, 339/0, and 216/1) late in the season while looking rather mediocre in the playoffs (186/0, 297/1, and 229/0). Los Angeles has pass-catching talent at RB, WR, and TE, which invites follow through in 2019.
Blake Bortles
Bortles played his way off the Jaguars’ roster after going 3-9 in 2018. He averaged only 209.1 passing yards per game with 13 TDs and 11 Ints. His experience in the NFL is an upgrade for the Rams’ backup quarterback position in 2019.
Other Options: Brandon Allen, John Wolford
Running Backs
Todd Gurley
Fair Evaluation: With a 20 percent drop in chances, Todd should settle into about 275 touches, leading to 1,600 combined yards with a dozen or so TDs and 50 catches. Bet on his talent while understanding the risk/reward factor.
Over the first 12 games of 2018, Gurley gained 1,649 combined yards (137.1 yards per game) with 19 TDs and 46 catches. He appeared to tweak his knee early in the game vs. the Bears, which led to him being used as a decoy (58 combined yards with three catches). The following week Gurley played upside his expected level (124 combined yards with two TDs and ten catches) before sitting out the final two games of the regular season. He looked healthy in the first round of the playoffs (16/118/1 with three catches), but the Rams faded his opportunity over the final two games of the playoffs (4/13/1 with one catch and 10/34) while using him almost as a decoy. The offseason reports point to an issue in his left knee (arthritis). Without a doubt, Todd was on pace to be the top RB again in 2018 before his knee issue.
Los Angeles added insurance at RB in this year’s draft with a plan to manage his touches in 2019. Last year the Rams’ RBs gained 2,808 combined yards with 26 TDs and 70 catches on 479 touches. In 2018, Gurley averaged 22.5 touches per game (22.9 in 2017).
Update 8/19/2019: The first question a Fantasy owner has to answer as the backend of the RB1 pool is where they stand on Todd Gurley in 2019. I downgraded his touches this year to about 18.5, which is about 18 percent lower than his chances in 2017 (22.9) and 2018 (22.5). Gurley signed a big contract in 2018 ($45 million guaranteed), which gives LA plenty of reasons to ride him to the promised land. Even with tapered down touches, he’ll still catch plenty of balls with plus scoring ability. The so-called wise-guys will be drawn to rookie Darrell Henderson while the sharps snatch up Gurley in the second round.
Darrell Henderson
Fair Evaluation: MUST HANDCUFF for Gurley owners while expecting him to carve out a nice opportunity off the bench in 2019. With 150+ touches, Henderson will gain over 900 yards with some value in TDs and catches. I see a combination of Todd Gurley, Chris Johnson, and Marion Barber in his game.
Henderson turned in an impressive season in 2018 for Memphis (2,204 combined yards with 25 TDs and 19 catches) despite only receiving 233 touches. He gained 8.9 yards per rush and 15.5 yards per catch, which was supported by his success in 2017 (1,380 combined yards with 11 TDs and 24 catches while gaining 8.9 yards per rush). In his college career, Darrell did catch 63 passes for 758 yards and eight TDs. He runs with power and home run ability while consistently breaking arm tackles. His vision graded well while offering subtle movements to create big yardage on what looks like small windows at the point of attack.
John Kelly
Over three seasons at Tennessee. Kelly gained 1,923 combined yards with 15 TDs and 43 catches. His best success came in his junior year when John had 1,077 combined yards with nine TDs and 37 catches despite gaining only 4.1 yards per rush. Kelly fits into the grinder mode with power being his best asset. After a good preseason (215 combined yards with three TDs and six catches), the Rams bypassed him as a handcuff to Todd Gurley late in the season in favor of C.J. Anderson. In 2018 with LA, he gained 316 combined yards with two TDs and four catches.
Malcolm Brown (Added 8/20/2019): The backup RB option in 2019 for the Rams looks to be a battle between Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. Henderson comes with all the preseason hype after getting drafted in the third round in the 2019 NFL draft. Brown signed with the Rams as an undrafted free agent in 2015 after playing four seasons at Texas as a rotational running back. His best season in college came in 2013 when he gained 1,099 combined yards with 11 TDs and 17 catches on 231 touches. After struggling to make an impact in yards per carry earlier in his career, Brown played well in limited playing time in 2018 (43 rushes for 212 yards – 4.9 yards per rush and five catches for 52 yards and a TD). His lower overall upside pushes him to third on the depth chart in Los Angeles for me. Another note on his possible value this year is that he wasn’t drafted by the current Rams’ coaching staff.
Other Options: Justin Davis, Matthew Colburn
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Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks
Fair Evaluation: I expect a slight upside in TDs. Ideal WR3 while being drafted as WR2 in most Fantasy formats.
Cooks ended up being a nice fit for the Rams, but he failed to make an impact TDs (5). He’s gained over 1,000 yards in each of his last four seasons while averaging about 77 catches and seven TDs per year. His catch rate (68.4) rebounded after fading with the Patriots (57.0). Cooks finished as the 13th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with 80 catches for 1,204 yards and five TDs on 117 targets. He had five games with over 100 yards receiving (7/159/1, 7/116/1, 6/114/1, 10/100, and 8/107), which came over the first 11 games of the season. He played well over in his final two games in the playoffs (7/107 and 8/120).
On the downside, Brandin was shutout in Week 5 with weakness over his final five games (21/240/2 on 33 targets) of the regular season. In 2018, the Rams’ WRs caught 239 passes for 3,425 yards and 22 TDs on 359 targets. More of the same with the health of Cooper Kupp determining his opportunity.
Update 8/19/2019: Brandin Cook picked up a slight hamstring injury in early August, which will lead to him having limited reps over the middle of August. The Rams expect him to be ready for Week 1.
Robert Woods
Fair Evaluation: I expect a slight pullback, which points to an 80/1000/7 type season. In 2018, Woods was the 11th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues.
After missing four games in 2017 after a successful year (56/781/5), Woods proved not to be a fluke. He caught 86 of his 130 targets (66.2 percent) for 1,219 yards and six TDs. His best three games (10/104/2, 5/101/1, and 7/109) came over the first six weeks of the season. Robert had four games with double-digit targets and 12 games with five catches or more. He falls into the steady category in most weeks while offering some explosiveness. The Rams will use all three of their top wide receivers similarly.
Cooper Kupp
Fair Evaluation: As much as I like his talent and upside, I have to be careful and not overvalue him coming off an injury. I’m going to set his bar at about 70 catches for 900 yards with about eight TDs.
Last year I had Kupp rated higher than most in the preseason rankings. Over the first five games, he caught 30 of his 40 targets for 438 yards and five TDs putting him on pace for 96 catches for 1,402 yards and 16 TDs on 128 targets. He left Week 5 with a concussion, which came after a productive first half (6/90/1). The following week Cooper suffered an MCL injury in his left knee leading to two more missed games. After another productive game (5/89/1), Kupp suffered a torn ACL in Week 10 costing him the last seven games of the year.
Kupp Scouting Report
Based on his college resume (428/6464/73), Kupp looks like a star of stars. His game comes with exceptional route running with plus short area quickness, hands, and ball fakes. Cooper doesn’t have the flash and sleekness of the top WRs in the game, but he will get open while catching many balls thrown his way. In the open field, his speed isn’t enough to pull away from cornerbacks after the catch.
Kupp plays with vision, which helps him after the catch. I’m seeing a Brandon Marshall type skill set with less size (6’2” and 204 lbs.), where controlling the first 15 yards off the line of scrimmage will be his calling card to success — built to be a 100-catch receiver. His route running will be his ticket to an early starting job, but his release will dictate his upside.
Kupp’s 2019 Fantasy Outlook
The Rams hope to have him ready for Week 1, which gives him ten months to recover from his injury. His hard-working approach should help his quick return, but I have to believe Cooper will have limited value over the first month of the season.
Update 8/19/2019: Cooper Kupp has progressed enough to be drafted in the fifth round in 12-team PPR leagues. If he doesn’t have any setbacks or no negative news over the next three weeks, I’ll push his projections (currently 69/978/8) to a much attractive range as a Fantasy WR2.
Fair Evaluation: I expect improvement in his third year in the NFL, but his opportunity won’t be high enough without another injury at the WR position.
Over the first four games, Reynolds didn’t have a catch with only one target. He earned a bump in playing time after the Cooper Kupp injury, which led to eight starts. Josh flashed in Week 8 (3/42/2), Week 11 (6/80/1), and Week 17 (4/55/2) while catching 22 of his 41 targets over the last six games with 304 yards and three TDs.
Reynolds is the player LA hopes will challenge the secondary in the deep passing game. Josh has more height (6’3”) than size (194 lbs.), but he does win many jump balls even just average WR speed. He’ll have risk working the short areas of the field while needing to improve his release. Over three seasons at Texas A&M, Josh caught 164 passes for 2,788 yards and 30 TDs while averaging 17 yards per catch.
Possible early season handcuff to Cooper Kupp while working as the fourth wide receiving option.
Other Options: KhaDarel Hodge, JoJo Natson, Mike Thomas, Austin Proehl, Alex Bachman
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett
Fair Evaluation: Everett isn’t ready to be a Fantasy factor in any format.
In his second season in the NFL, Everett only saw minimal growth in his success and his opportunity. He finished with 33 catches for 320 yards and three TDs on 50 targets. Gerald gained only 9.7 yards per catch with only one game of value (3/49/2).
Over his last two seasons at South Alabama, Gerald caught 90 passes for 1,292 yards and 12 TDs. His game has a WR feel with great hands and the balance RB when getting tackled. Everett will challenge the short areas of the field plus add value in the deep passing game. His next step is building his technique in his route running while being undersized (6’3” and 239 lbs.) to hold an edge in the blocking game.
The Rams’ TEs caught 58 passes for 617 yards and five TDs on 83 targets. Upside player who will continue to split playing time at TE.
Other Options: Tyler Higbee, Johnny Mundt, Kendall Blanton, Keenan Brown, Romello Brooker
Kicker
Greg Zuerlein
Fair Evaluation: The Rams have a top offense making Greg a top 5 kicker option.
In his five seasons in the NFL, Greg has never made over 26 field goals in a season or over 34 extra points. His leg finally blossomed in 2017 leading 38 fields goals in 40 chances with big success from 50 yards or longer (6-for-7) while only playing in 14 games. In 2018, he missed another five games while making 27 of his 31 field goals with value from over 50 yards (4-for-6).
Over the last four seasons, Zuerlein missed five of his 132 extra points. His career success rate (83.5) in field goals moved closer to starting NFL kicker average after his production over the last two years (95.0 and 87.1). Even with a strong leg, he’s 28-for-48 from 50 yards or longer in his career. Last season LA created 101 scoring chance. His one negative is a back injury in December of 2017 that required surgery while battling a foot issue previous season.
Los Angeles Rams Defensive Schedule
Los Angeles’s run defense will struggle in three matchups (BAL and SEA X 2) while having two other mid-tier games (CAR and NO). Their best edge defending the run should come vs. PIT, TB, ATL, and ARI X 2).
Even with three tough matchups (TB, ATL, and PIT), the Rams have a favorable schedule for their pass defense. They have eight winnable games (CIN, CHI, BAL, DAL, SEA X 2, and ARI X 2) with most contests coming over the second half of the year.
Rams Defense
Fair Evaluation: If the Rams play from the lead, they will be a much better defense. When chasing on the scoreboard, offenses will be able to move the ball and score points — not my cup of tea as a top Fantasy defense in 2019.
The Rams struggled again to defend the run last year. They finished 23rd in rushing yards allowed (1,957) with 12 TDs and 17 runs over 20 yards. Rushers gained 5.1 yards per carry with 24.1 attempts per game.
Los Angeles ranked 14th in pass defense (3,780 yards) with 31 TDs and 18 Ints. QBs gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The Rams defense picked up 41 sacks.
Defensive Line
DE Aaron Donald is a complete beast on defense. He produced 20.5 sacks in 2018 with 59 tackles while adding top value in run support. Donald has been a top player in the NFL in all five seasons in the league after the Rams’ drafted him in the first round in 2013.
DE Michael Brockers finished as a neutral player in 2018. His best player comes in run blocking while offering minimal value rushing the QB. Last year he posted 54 tackles with only one sack.
DT Greg Gaines may earn a starting job in 2019 after the Rams drafted him in the fourth round. LA hopes he’ll hold his ground defending the run while heading to the bench on passing downs. Gaines is a power player who needs to gamble on the snap count to win his edge.
DT Sebastian Joseph-Day projects as an early-down run defender. He plays hard on every down while offering quickness and good hands. His next step is proving he can beat power players while developing his pass rush skill set.
DE John Franklin-Myers went to a small school (Stephen F. Austin), which makes the move to the NFL a step up in competition. He offers an exciting combination of power and quickness for his size (6’4” and 283 lbs.), but he projects as a tweener. John isn’t big enough to play inside while lacking the pass rushing skills to offer an edge on the outside. His base skill set has room for growth where he should add value in run support and deliver some value in sacks.
Linebackers
Dante Fowler has never lived up to his third overall draft value in 2015. Over 47 games in his career, Fowler has 16 sacks with 83 tackles. His talent offers upside, but the Rams need to unlock the key to his value.
Micah Kiser barely played last year after getting drafted in the fifth round in 2018. Kiser will have the best value attacking the line of scrimmage where his vision plays well. He lacks the speed to cover the field from sideline to sideline with questions about his ability to play in coverage. His power style will develop upside in tackles, but he can make mistakes while having physical limitations in his game.
Cory Littleton blossomed in 2018, which led to 125 tackles, four sacks, three sacks, and 13 defended passes. Even with excellent stats, Cory did struggle vs. the run.
Samson Ebukam looks to be a functional player vs. the run with risk in his tackling and minimal value rushing the quarterback. Last he finished with 40 tackles and three sacks while having minor knee surgery on the offseason.
Secondary
CB Marcus Peters was a liability in coverage in 2018, leading to too many big plays and risk in TDs allowed. He allowed a high catch rate last year with a ton of yards after the catch. Peters will create some turnovers based on his gambling style. Over his first two years in the NFL, Marcus played at a high level in coverage leading to 14 Ints and 26 defended passes. LA needs him to bounce back in a big way in 2019.
CB Aqib Talib missed half of 2018 with a high ankle sprain that required surgery. He minimized the damage in TDs while allowing some big plays. Overall, Talib was an asset in coverage.
S Eric Weddle has a long resume of success in the NFL, but his game is starting to fade at age 34. Weddle will help in run support with a chance to win in some matchup in coverage. Last year Eric picked up 68 tackles, one sack, and three defended passes.
S John Johnson played at a high-level last year, which led to 119 tackles, four Ints, and 11 defended passes. His game is built to help vs. the run while allowing short yards per catch. Johnson will give up TDs while barely adding value attacking the QB.
Rams Fantasy Defense Outlook
The Rams’ defense looks to be straight forward in 2019. They need their offense to control the clock. LA has weakness at linebacker with questionable pieces to their defensive line behind Aaron Donald. Los Angeles has some talent in the secondary, but multiple players need to improve while needing an improved pass rush to cover come of their weakness.