Dallas Cowboys Team Outlook
In this Dallas Cowboys Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
Over the last three seasons, the Cowboys have a 32-16 record with two playoff berths. Their step back in success came on the offensive side of the ball again in 2018. Dallas slipped to 22nd in offensive yards and points scored (339), which was 15 fewer points than 2017 (354). Jason Garrett returns for a ninth season as head coach with a 77-59 record and three playoff appearances.
Offensive Coordinator
Kellen Moore was brought in to hopefully saves the sliding offense. He went from backup QB from 2012 to 2017 with the Lions and the Cowboys to a quarterbacks coach in 2018. When the season starts, Kellen will be 30 with a massive upgrade in job.
Defensive Coordinator
The Cowboys’ defense showed growth in defensive yards allowed in each of the last five years. They moved to 7th in yards allowed in 2018 and 6th in points allowed (324). Rod Marinelli returns for a sixth season as defensive coordinator. He failed in his chance at being a head coach in the NFL (10-38).
Free Agency
The only two additions to the offense were WR Randall Cobb and WR Devin Smith. Cobb struggled to produce elite stats over the last couple of seasons after showing promise earlier in his career.
Dallas lost RB Rob Smith, WR Cole Beasley, WR Terrance Williams, TE Geoff Swaim, and C Marcus Martin.
The Cowboys traded for DE Robert Quinn. They signed DE Kerry Hyder, DT Christian Covington, and S George Iloka although all three players project as bench players.
DT David Irving, DT Caraun Reid, DE Datone Jones, and LB Damien Wilson received their walking papers.
Dallas Cowboys Draft
Dallas didn’t have a first-round draft pick in 2019.
Second Round pick, 58th overall: DL Trysten Hill, UCF
Their first player added came in the second round with DT Trysten Hill. The Cowboys hope he develops into a run stopper in the middle of the offensive line with some value attacking the QB. Hill plays with fight, but he struggles with his commitment to the game and responding to authority. With a better plan and improved vision, Trysten may outperform his draft value.
Third Round pick, 90th overall: G Connor McGovern, Penn St.
In the third round, Dallas drafted G Connor McGovern. He’ll add flexibility to the offensive line plus upgrade the run blocking. McGovern has risk in his pass sets, which may be corrected with better technique. Connor’s best asset is his strength.
Fourth Round pick, 128th overall: RB Tony Pollard, Memphis
Depth at running back came in the fourth round with Tony Pollard. He’ll instantly improve the return game. His route running is trailing with questionable value if given an every-down opportunity. His playmaking skills may lead to a couple of plays run for him each game. At best, a change of pace player with more development needed to make an impact.
The next three draft picks were dictated toward the defense – CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, and S Donovan Wilson.
Fifth Round pick, 158th overall: CB Michael Jackson, Miami
Jackson brings size (6’1” and 210 lbs.) to the cornerback position while needing to get stronger. He’ll work as a press corner while also having questions with his cover skills in the deep passing game. Michael has some safety traits while expecting to help in run support.
Fifth Round pick, 165th overall: DE Joe Jackson, Miami
Joe Jackson has the size (6’4’ and 275 lbs.) and strength to make plays in the NFL, but his foot speed hurts his ability to offer an edge. Brute force is calling card while lacking athletic ability.
Wilson will be at his best attacking the line of scrimmage as a run defender. He plays tough while offering blitzing value. He can’t cover WRs, but he has a chance vs. TEs over the short areas of the field.
Sixth Round pick, 213th overall: S Donovan Wilson, Texas A&M
RB Mike Weber and LB Jalen Jelks were the selections in the seventh round.
Seventh Round pick, 218th overall: RB Mike Weber, Ohio St.
Weber has a big back feel based on his strength while offering deceiving speed. His vision projects well, but his quickness and open-field ability don’t allow him to make many explosive plays in tight quarters. His hands give him a chance in the passing game.
Seventh Round pick, 241st overall: DE Jalen Jelks, Oregon
Jelks has a plodding style while needing to get stronger. His frame can take more bulk, which points to a move to DE where his skill set has a chance rushing the QB. Jalen is a developmental player who may surprise down the road.
Offensive Line
Dallas finished tenth in the NFL in rushing yards (1,963) with 13 TDs and 12 runs over 20 yards. They averaged 27.4 rushes per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
The Cowboys ranked 23rd in passing yards (3,538) with 22 TDs and eight Ints. They gained only 7.4 yards per pass attempt with 39 passes over 20 yards. Their offensive line allowed 56 sacks and 107 QB hits.
LT Tyron Smith
Smith is a solid anchor on the offensive line who Dallas drafted ninth overall in 2011. He signed a massive $109 million contract in 2014 for eight seasons. Over the last three seasons, he missed nine games with knee, neck, and back issues. When on the field, Tyron is an edge in pass blocking while having a winning resume as a run blocker. In 2018, Smith produced his weakest output in the run game.
LG Connor Williams
Williams should move into the starting lineup after getting drafted in the second round in 2018. Williams has a strong foundation in his technique, which adds the most value in run blocking. A switch to guard will help his floor and ceiling, but Connor needs more fight in the trenches to become a winner on more plays. In his rookie season, he struggled in all areas.
C Travis Frederick
Frederick is a great player at his position with high value in all areas. Dallas selected him in the second round in 2013. Last year he missed the whole season due to an illness. Frederick also had shoulder surgery in the offseason. Over the previous three years, Travis has been one of the best centers in the league.
RG Zack Martin
Martin has been a beast in pass protection while offering value as a run blocker in most seasons. Martin is a third player on this line that graded as an edge in all areas with five plus seasons on his resume after being selected 16th overall in the 2014 NFL Draft.
RT La’el Collins
Collins moved from left guard to right tackle in 2017, but he failed to make an impact in all areas. Last year La’el played at the highest level of his career. His game still needs improvement in all areas. Collins has first-round talent, but his game hasn’t emerged at this point of his career.
2019 O-Line Outlook
With Travis Frederick back in the starting lineup, Dallas has the talent to have the best offensive line in the league. The run game should regain its bounce in 2019 while the sack total regresses to a favorable area.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
The Cowboys have two games (NO and CHI) vs. teams that played well against the run last year plus two mid-tier contests vs. the Eagles. They face only one team (MIA) that ranked poorly defending the run in 2018.
Their two toughest games to pass the ball look to be against the Vikings and the Bills. Dallas has an edge in the passing game in three matchups (NO and PHI X 2).
Cowboys Offense
Dallas would like to run the ball as much as possible while having success with rushing TDs in the red zone. A healthy offensive line and a stronger defense should ensure a balanced attack in 2019. Last year the Cowboys ran the ball 45.4 percent of the time.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott
Over three seasons as the starting QB for the Cowboys, Prescott has a 32-16 record with two playoff appearance. In 2018, Dak set a career high in completions (356), pass attempts (526), and passing yards (3,885) with a rebound in his completion rate (67.7). His passing TDs have been in a tight range (23, 22, and 22) in his career while doing an excellent job minimizing the damage in Ints (25 over 48 career starts). His success last year was surprising considering the regression of his offensive line (56 sacks). Daz has six rushing TDs in each season in the league while upside his rushing chances to 75 in 2018. He passed for over 300 yards in two games (455/3 and 387/4), which came over the final four games of the season.
In 2019, Prescott will have a full season with the rising Amari Cooper plus Ezekiel Elliott emerged as a real threat in the passing game. When adding a developing Michael Gallup and a veteran Randall Cobb, Dak should push his way to 4,500 combined yards with his first season with more than 30+ combined TDs.
(From Twitter: After starting 3-4, the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper and finished 7-2 to advance to the Playoffs. Amari’s presence allowed Dak to target more open receivers and improve his efficiency. How will a full season together impact the Cowboys?)
Other Options: Cooper Rush, Mike White
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott
In two of his three years in the NFL, Elliot led the NFL in rushing yards (1,631 and 1,434) while playing 15 games in both seasons. At the same time, he had the most rushing attempts (322 and 304) while also leading the NFL in rushing yards per game in 2016 (108.7), 2017 (98.3), and 2018 (95.6). His stats in 2017 were cut short by a six-game suspension. Last year the Cowboys figured out how to get Ezekiel involved in the passing game. He set career highs in catches (77), receiving yard (567), receiving TDs (3), and targets (95).
Over his 17 games played (including the playoffs), Elliott had eight games with over 100 yards rushing and four other contest with over 100 combined yards. His only area where he failed to reach expectations was TDs (9). This year his offensive line should be back to full strength after playing without their Pro Bowl center for the whole 2018 season. I expect growth in the Cowboys’ offense where one TD per game is reasonable even with Dak Prescott vulturing some TDs.
Ezekiel will be drafted a top-three player in 2019 with his next step being 2,300 combined yards with 80+ catches and about 15 TDs. High floor player who offers consistency and explosiveness.
Update 8/16/2019: The standoff with the Ezekiel Elliott signing with heat up over the final two weeks in August. Ezekiel is under contract for the next two years, but he’s only owed $3.8 million in guaranteed money for 2019. His base salary is just over $9 million in 2020, but one injury this year could lead to a cap causality if released by next June. Dallas needs him to win. Yes, they added an intriguing back in the 2019 draft (Tony Pollard), but Dallas is positioned to win this year. They need Elliott on the field, and I expect his contract to be finalized before the start of the season.
Tony Pollard
Memphis primarily used Pollard as a pass-catching back over the last two seasons with minimal chances in the run game. In 2017, he gained a combined 766 yards on 66 touches with most of the damage coming in the passing game (36/536/4). Even so, Tony averaged 7.7 yards per rush and 14.9 yards per catch that year. In 2018, his touches pushed to 117, which delivered 1,010 combined yards with nine TDs and 39 catches. His explosiveness (7.1 yards per carry and 11.7 yards per catch) is why the Cowboys were interested in him as a change of pace type RB.
Pollard has work to do in his route running along with questions in his pass protection skills. At the very least, he’ll improve the return game thanks to averaging 30.1 yards per kickoff in his college career with seven TDs. Tony should be drafted as the top handcuff for Ezekiel Elliott even with a short college resume on early downs.
Update 8/16/2019: Fantasy owners have moved up Tony Pollard in drafts in mid-August, which is helped by the Cowboys suggesting that he could carry the full workload if Ezekiel Elliott does holdout. The biggest challenge in this dilemma is pass protection. If/when Pollard blows one assignment to pick up a blitz that leads to Dak Prescott getting lit up, the Cowboys will know they need their top RB back in the fold. Pollard flew under the radar in Fantasy drafts in July while Fantasy owners buy the name instead of the scouting report. Here’s my take on him in researching the 2019 NFL Draft:
Depth at running back for Dallas came in the fourth round with Tony Pollard. He’ll instantly improve the return game. His route running is trailing with questionable value if given an every-down opportunity. His playmaking skills may lead to a couple of plays run for him each game. At best, a change of pace player with more development needed to make an impact.
Mike Weber
Weber came from a top college program (Ohio State), but he never worked his way into a full time starting job. His best opportunity came in his freshman season (1,187 combined yards with nine TDs and 23 catches). Mike regressed in 2017 (101/626/10 with ten catches for 94 yards) while battling a hamstring issue. Last season he finished with 1,066 combined yards with six TDs and 21 catches while receiving 193 touches.
Weber projects as grinder type back with limited upside in the passing game. He’ll make plays over the short areas of the field with the ability to break some tackles. Mike struggles to create in the open field with his questionable quickness. May surprise on early downs if Elliot did have a long term issue.
Other Options: Darius Jackson, Jordan Chunn
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Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper
2018 was a tale of two different seasons for Cooper. Early in his career, Amari projected as an elite WR after being drafted in the first round in 2015 supported by two active years (72/1070/6 and 83/1153/5). He lost his way for the Raiders in 2017 (48/680/7) when he saw his catch rate fall to 50 percent. Oakland struggled to get him the ball again last season, which led to a trade to Dallas after poor stats over the first six games (22/280/1).
Cooper flashed in Week 2 (10/116) and Week 4 (8/128/1) with the Raiders, but his other four contests (1/9, 2/17, 1/10, and 1/0) infuriated Fantasy owners. With the Cowboys, Amari showed his upside and explosiveness in two games (8/180/2 and 10/10/217/3). Over six other games for Dallas, he had four other disappointing games (3/36, 4/32, 4/20, and 5/31) with two of those weeks coming when Fantasy championships were on the line.
Cooper did show up in the NFL playoffs (7/106 and 6/65/1). Game flow is going to be a big key in his week-to-week value for the Cowboys while also needing Dak Prescott to develop into a better passer beyond the first 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Cooper is a beast who is still disliked by many Fantasy owners due to his lack of consistency. At age 25 with a full season in Dallas, I expect him to push his way to 90+ catches for 1,300+ yards and score double-digit TDs. I would much rather own him as a WR2 until he shows he can be trusted for a high percentage of games during the year.
Update 8/16/2019: Amari Cooper landed on the injury report in mid-August with a foot issue, which had plantar fascia tied to it. The Cowboys have classified his injury as a minor heel issue. A Fantasy owner needs to pay close attention to this as it could develop into a season-long issue if it doesn’t clear up quickly.
Michael Gallup
In his rookie season, Gallup failed to live up to expectations in the Fantasy market. He caught only 48.5 percent of his 68 targets with 33 catches for 507 yards and two TDs. The Cowboys gave him eight starts. His highlight game came in the second round of the playoffs (6/119). During the regular season, Michael only had three playable games (3/81/1, 5/76, and 3/53/1). I expect growth in his second season, but his opportunity won’t be high enough to be trusted a starting WR in PPR leagues. Possible push to 50+ catches for 750+ yards and low value in TDs.
Over two seasons at Colorado State, Gallup caught 176 passes for 2,690 yards and 21 TDs. He looked more explosive in 2016 when Michael gained 16.7 yards per catch with 14 TDs, but he did set a career high in catches (100) and yards (1,418) last year. Gallup needs to get stronger to help his release in press coverage. His speed (4.51) and quickness can’t match the best WRs in the NFL, but he has the mid-range gear to beat a defender to the ball while offering good hands. Michael has a knack for breaking tackles with open field moves to beat a defense for a long TD on a short pass. His biggest challenge will be defeating better cornerbacks and handling the tough throws over the middle of the field.
Randall Cobb
When a wide receiver can’t make an impact with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball, it’s tough to believe in more upside in another NFL city. Cobb posted an electric season at age 24 in 2014 (91/1297/12), but his game has been declining while also battling some injuries. His catch rate was elite in his best year (71.7) with follow through in 2016 (71.4) and 2017 (71.7). Last year Randall only caught 38 balls for 383 yards and two TDs on 61 targets, which came after two fading seasons (60/610/4 and 66/653/4). At the very least, Cobb gives Dallas a possession type WR who can make plays in the red zone. A good season would be 65 catches for 700+ yards with a handful of TDs.
Other Options: Allen Hurns, Tavon Austin, Noah Brown, Cedrick Wilson, Lance Lenoir, Devin Smith
Tight Ends
Jason Witten
Based on name value, Witten will draw some Fantasy interest in 2019. At age 37 with a year removed from football, his bar will be lowered tremendously in 2019. Dallas projects him as a part-time player this year, which they stated when they resigned him in February. Ideally, they would like to use him on about 45 percent of their plays. I expect him to be on the field on passing downs where he’ll continue to be a dump off option. Jason has never caught fewer than 63 passes in his career. I’m going to set his bar at about three catches per game for 450 yards with less than five TDs.
Blake Jarwin
Other than one game (7/119/3) in 2018, Jarwin struggled to make an impact in his second year in the NFL. He finished with 27 catches for 307 yards and three TDs on 36 targets with only one other playable game (7/56). Over three seasons at Oklahoma State, he caught only 41 passes for 616 yards and five TDs. His one great gives him room for improvement, but Dallas is going to rotate in multiple TEs this season.
Other Options: Dalton Schultz, Rico Gathers, Codey McElroy
Kicker
Brett Maher
In his first season in the NFL, Maher finished as the 9th highest scoring kicker. He made 29 of his 36 field goal attempts with a high-level of success from 50 yards or longer (6-for-7). Brett missed one of his 33 extra point tries. Dallas will run the ball well with success in the red zone. Their field goal chances were high last year, which was helped by some injuries on the offensive line. This season the Cowboys’ offense should score more TDs as the expense of some of their field goal chances. Maher made his living in his early career in the Canadian Football League. Viable top ten kicking option helped by his ability to make long kicks.
Dallas Cowboys Defensive Schedule
Dallas starts the year with nine of ten games vs. offenses that ran the ball poorly in 2018 plus two other favorable contests later in the season. Of these matches, only three games (MIN and PHI X 2) look to be against offenses that struggled to run the ball in 2019. Their defense will have the toughest time defending the Rams and the Saints.
The Cowboys have a feast or famine pass schedule. They have five weak passing offenses (MIA, BUF, NYJ, and WAS) plus two mid-tier games against the Bears and the Lions. Dallas will be tested in seven other contests (GB, LAR, NE, PHI X 2, and NYG X 2). Overall, they have a favorable schedule for their rushing defense.
Dallas Cowboys Defense
Dallas finished 5th in rushing yards allowed (1,513) with 12 TDs and nine runs over 20 yards. They allowed 3.8 yards per rush.
Their pass defense ranked 13th in yards allowed (3,755) with 22 TDs and nine Ints. Dallas allowed 7.4 yards per pass attempt with 39 sacks.
Defensive Line
DT Maliek Collins enters his fourth season in the NFL with no defining edge in any area. His run defense is improving while remaining a liability. Over 13 games in 2018, Collins picked up three sacks. DT Tyrone Crawford set a career high in sacks (5.5) while coming in a league average player defending the run.
DE Robert Quinn came to the Cowboys via a trade with the Dolphins after delivering 15 sacks over the last two years. When at his best earlier in his career, Quinn posted 40 sacks over 48 games with the Rams. DE DeMarcus Lawrence was the best defensive player on Dallas in 2017 and 2018 where he picked up 25 sacks while being an edge defending the run. Unfortunately, Quinn suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery in April. His recovery is expected to take four to six months.
Linebackers
Jaylon Smith turned into a beast in his sophomore year in the league. Smith finished with 121 tackles with four sacks, four defended passes and two forced fumbles. Jaylon is an asset in run support. Sean Lee missed seven games in 2018 while also losing his starting role. His game is fading while owning a high tackles resume in his career. In his rookie season after getting drafted in the fours round in 2018, Leighton Vander Esch was a force defending the run while offering minimal value in the pass rush. He made 140 tackles with seven defended passes and two Ints.
Secondary
S Jeff Heath set a career high in tackles (85) while picking up five defended passes and one Int. He did miss a ton of tackles with risk against the run. S Xavier Woods started all 16 games last year, but he showed risk defending the run with growth in the passing game.
CB Byron Jones played at a high level in coverage despite making some mistakes in the deep passing game. Jones added value against the run while failing to pick up any sacks. CB Chidobe Awuzie was unable to make an impact in his first season with starting snaps. He allowed too many big plays while failing to create Interceptions (1). His value in the open field tackling did have some risk.
Dallas has talent at all three levels of their defense, but they need to create more turnovers plus add a few more sacks in 2019. They project as a top ten Fantasy defense after finishing only 17th last season. The health of DeMarcus Lawrence is key to their upside while Tony Pollard should add value to the return game.