Atlanta Falcons Team Outlook
In this Atlanta Falcons Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
The Falcons fell to 7-9 in 2018, despite growth on the offensive side of the ball (414 points – 10th and sixth in yards gained). After four seasons as the head coach of the Falcons, Dan Quinn is 36-28 with two playoff appearances and a trip to the Super Bowl. He has 16 years of experience in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball.
Offensive Coordinator
Dirk Koetter takes over the offense after losing the head coaching job from Tampa. In his three years with the Bucs, he went 19-29 with no playoff appearances. Koetter has nine seasons of experience as an offensive coordinator (Jaguars – 6, Falcons – 2, and Bucs – 1). I expect him to be an excellent addition to the coaching staff.
Defensive Coordinator
After losing the direction of the defense (25th in points allowed – 423 and 28th in yards allowed), the Falcons fired their offensive coordinator. Dan Quinn will run the defense in 2019 with the hopes of regaining their 20117 success (8th in points allowed – 315 and nine in yards allowed).
Falcons Free Agency
The most significant changes on the offensive side of the ball in free agency for the Falcons came on the offensive line. They signed G James Carpenter, G Jamon Brown, T John Wetzel, and G Adam Gettis. Carpenter projects as a starter while being a former first-round draft pick (2011).
Atlanta lost RB Tevin Coleman, WR Marvin Hall, G Andy Levitre, T Ryan Schraeder, G Ben Garland, G Zane Beadles, and K Matt Bryant.
The only other player signed was TE Luke Stocker.
Falcons Draft Picks
The biggest priority for the Falcons this draft season was upgrading their offensive line. With their first two selections in the first round, Atlanta drafted G Chris Lindstrom and T Kaleb McGary.
First Round pick, 14th overall: OL Chris Lindstrom, Boston College
Lindstrom brings athletic ability to the offensive line, which instantly upside grades the run game. He controls a wide area of the field with the movements to block on the move. Chris has strength, but he can get in trouble vs. power while handling his job well against speed in the pass rush. Lindstrom needs to get stronger while adding more fire at the point of contact.
First Round pick, 31st overall: OT Kaleb McGary, Washington
McGary projects as a power blocker who can get in trouble when moving off his spot in blocking. He lacks quickness while losing his foundation when trying to control a defender outside his box. Kaleb needs to improve his technique to develop into a better player in pass protection. McGary will be an asset in the run game early in his career.
Their next two picks came in the fourth round – CB Kendall Sheffield and DE John Cominsky.
Fourth Round pick, 111st overall: CB Kendall Sheffield, Ohio St.
Sheffield has plus speed with an attacking style. He looks the part of an upside late cornerback option, but he tends to be a looking waiting for a play to develop rather than attacking before a receiver makes his break. Kendell won’t create many turnovers or be a difference-maker in the run game. At best, a chaser corner who will struggle with double moves.
Fourth Round pick, 135th overall: DE John Cominsky, Charleston
Cominsky is a former QB who has transformed his body to become a developing defensive end. His strength is where it needs to be while still looking to unlock the keys to better moves in the pass rush. John will disrupt with more speed than quickness.
In the fifth round, the Falcons invested in RB Qadree Ollison and CB Jordan Miller.
Fifth Round pick, 152nd overall: RB Qadree Ollison, Pitt
Ollison is a power runner who can break tackles, but his open-field ability is limited along with his vision. Qadree has a smash factor with sneaky speed that takes multiple steps to get wound up. More reps would help his ability to see run blocking unfold along with a balance of patience and acceleration. I don’t expect much in the passing game with some risk in pass protection.
Fifth Round pick, 172nd overall: CB Jordan Willer, Washington
Miller is a couple of years away from filling out along with needing to get much stronger. His speed is nothing more than average for his position. Jordan may develop in a press corner with a feel for playing off the line of scrimmage. His vision and quickness do lower his floor and ceiling.
Sixth Round pick, 203rd overall: WR Marcus Green, Louisiana-Monroe
With their last draft selection, Atlanta added WR Marcus Green. He comes to the NFL with plus speed (4.39 forty) with a slot skill set. Green offers open field ability as a runner while needing to improve his route running and hands. He’ll struggle in tight coverage with patience and variation to his movements off the line of scrimmage.
Offensive Line
After ranking fifth in rushing yards (1,928) in 2016, the Falcons fell to 13th in 2017 (1,847) and 27th last season (1,573). They did gaining 4.5 yards per rush with 11 TDs and 14 runs over 20 yards.
Atlanta moved to 4th in passing yards (4,653) with 36 TDs and seven Ints. Their offensive line allowed 42 sacks and 108 QB hits. They gained 8.0 yards per pass attempt with 56 catches over 20 yards.
LT Jake Matthews
He still hasn’t developed into an elite player at his position after getting drafted in the first round in 2014. Matthews played well in pass protection over the last four seasons while failing more often than not in the run game.
LG James Carpenter
Carpenter signed a four-year $21 million contract in March, which after having shoulder surgery last fall. Atlanta expects Carpenter to be ready for training camp. James is a former first-round draft pick (2011). His value as a run blocker has been on the decline in each of the last three seasons while being a neutral player in pass protection at best. In 2015, Carpenter played at high -level for his first and only time in his eight-year career.
C Alex Mack
He was a great fit to this offense in 2016 with follow through in 2018. Alex is one of the top run-blocking centers in the NFL while offering strength in pass protection in every year in the league. Mack was drafted in the first round by the Browns in 2009.
RG Chris Lindstrom
He should start in his rookie season while expecting to a set winning foundation in the run game. Lindstrom is athletic with a big range in his blocking skills. His next step is showing growth in pass blocking. I expect him to play well in 2019.
RT Kaleb McGary
McGary won’t have a smooth ride if/when he locks down a starting job. The Falcons thought enough of his game to add him in the first round in 2019 even with questions with his value in pass protection. His game is built on power, which favors the run game.
Atlanta Falcons O-Line Fantasy Outlook
This offensive line will be in transition this year while offering two top players. The growth of their young talent will be the key to becoming a top tier team on all areas of blocking. Last year Atlanta threw the ball well with a subpar line. The run game should be improved in 2019, which is positive for all areas.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Falcons Schedule Fantasy Outlook
The Falcons will struggle to run the ball in two games vs. the Saints plus two other matchups (PHI and HOU). They have one favorable contest (ARI) leading to a below-par schedule for their rushing offense.
On the passing side, Atlanta has six winnable matchups (PHI, HOU, TB X 2, and NO X 2) plus four games (MIN, TEN, ARI, and JAX) vs. teams that had success defending the pass in 2018. Their pass schedule looks to be neutral.
Falcons Offense Outlook
Atlanta finished as a top passing team in 2018, but their run game didn’t come along for the ride. They ran the only 36.3 percent of the time with plenty of passing yards and passing TDs. Their additions to the offensive line should bold well for more growth in this offense in 2019.
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan
After attempting 627 passes per season from 2012 to 2015, Ryan saw his passing opportunity drop by more than 15 percent over the next two seasons. In 2016, he overcame his drop in passing attempts (534) by gaining a league and a career-high 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Last year game score and a weaker run game led to a rebound in passing attempts (608) plus his best results in passing yards (4,924), passing TDs (35), and completion rate (69.4). Matt passed for over 300 yards in eight games while picking up three TDs or more in eight games.
Ryan finished as the second-highest scoring QB while being a value on draft day. Ryan has an excellent WR1 in Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley turned into a playmaker with high value in scoring. The Falcons have a pass-catching ability at RB plus a TE with developing upside. Atlanta would love to be more balanced on offense, but they won’t overlook their talent in the passing game. A safe bet for 4.800+ passing yards with a floor of two TDs per game. His upside and downside are tied to the success of the run game. If the Falcons run the ball well in the red zone, their rushing TDs will restrict some of their in close TDs.
Other Options: Matt Schaub, Kurt Benkert
Running Backs
Devonta Freeman
From 2015 to 2017, Freeman has 35 TDs in his 45 games played while rushing for over 1,000 yards in 2015 (1,056) and 2016 (1,079). For some reason, the Falcons lowered his opportunity in the passing game (36/317/1) despite gaining more yards per catch (7.9 in 2015, 8.6 in 2016, and 8.8 in 2017) in each year in the league. In 2017, Devonta missed a pair of games with a concussion issue. Last year Freeman suffered a right knee injury in mid-January, which didn’t require surgery. Unfortunately, his season started with a right knee injury followed by four missed games. In Week 5, Devonta suffered a foot injury that ultimately ended his season. He finished with only 91 combined yards with five catches on 19 touches.
Over his previous 45 games, Freeman averaged 96.8 yards with 0.78 TDs and 3.6 catches per game or about 17 Fantasy points per game. The loss of Tevin Coleman in this offense opens up the door for Devonta to be the RB1 again in 2019. In 2017, the Falcons’ RBs gained 2,356 combined yards with 67 catches and 16 TDs with regression last year (1,919 combined yards with 68 catches and 13 TDs). I expect Freeman to receiver a minimum of 18 touches per game leading to 1,350+ combined yards with double-digit TDs and 50+ catches or a solid RB2.
Update 8/19/2019: Devonta Freeman has been gaining value in the third round in some Fantasy drafts while sometimes becoming a value on the 3/4 turn in 12-team leagues. He may lose some goal-line chances to Qadree Ollison who brings size to the table (6’1″ and 230 lbs.). Freeman remains an attractive RB2 while playing in a high volume passing offense.
Atlanta gave Smith 117 touches in his rookie season after losing Devonta Freeman for the season. He gained 467 combined yards with four TDs and 27 catches while gaining only 3.5 yards per rush and 5.6 yards per catch.
Over four season at Southern Mississippi, Smith gained 5,498 combined yards with 49 TDs and 140 catches. He averaged 18.8 touches per game in his college career with three seasons with 40 catches or more. Ito gained 10.3 yards per catch in his college. Smith showed acceleration through the line of scrimmage if their daylight while also showing patience to find his seem to the second level of the defense. In the open field, Ito has a series of stutter steps, and shoulder fakes to make defenders miss. When tested one-on-one with his long speed, he shows a nice stiff arm to finish runs. His lack of size (5’9’ and 195 lbs.) hurt his value when running in tight space with no exit plan. His hands grade well, and Smith knows what to do when the ball is in his hand.
Tough to get excited based on his lack of success in 2018, but his college resume and scouting report paint him as higher-level back. Possible 150+ touches for 700+ yards and a handful of TDs and 30+ catches while being a top insurance card in this offense.
Other Options: Qadree Ollison, Brian Hill, Kenjon Barner, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Green
PLAY AGAINST THE BEST WITH FULLTIME FANTASY! | Odds
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones
Fantasy owners won’t fight for Jones due to underlying injury risk. His draft day snub was a mistake in 2018, which led to a league-high in receiving yards (1,677) while finishing with his second-best year in catches (113) and targets (170). Julio made progress in TDs (8) leading to the fourth-most Fantasy points (327.90) in PPR league at wide receiver. Jones caught seven or more passes in nine games while gaining over 100 yards nine games, which included six straight games. He’s now played a full season in back-to-back years with over 1,000 yards in six seasons.
For his career, Julio averages 6.3 catches for 97 yards and 0.46 TDs per game. Top tier WR who will rank in the top five in the NFL targets if he plays a full season. His starting point is 100+ catches for 1,500+ yards and eight to ten TDs.
Update 8/19/2019: Julio Jones missed the first two preseason games due to a minor battle with a foot issue. He should be ready to play in Week 1.
Calvin Ridley
There was a lot to like about Ridley in his rookie season. After posting a zero in Week 1 on two targets, Calvin played well in Week 2 (4/64/1) before exploding the following game (7/146/3). The next game he caught four balls for 54 yards and two more TDs. From that point on, Ridley was a tough play in the Fantasy market due to inconsistent chances. Over his last 12 games, Calvin caught 49 of his 71 targets for 557 yards and four TDs while producing only three more games of value (6/71/1, 8/93/1, and 3/90/1).
Ridley has a strange resume over three seasons at Alabama. His best season came in his rookie year in 2015 (89/1045/7) when he worked almost like a possession type WR based on his yards per catch (11.7). The next season Calvin saw his catches (72), receiving yards (769), and yard per catch (10.7) regress while scoring eight TDs. In 2017, he turned more into a big play WR (63/967/5) while gaining 15.3 yards per catch. His route running and separation skill will lead to instant success at the next level. Calvin comes with a smooth glide in the open field with a gear to blow by defenders with or without the ball.
This season he should start all 16 games (only five games in 2018) pointing to 80+ catches for 1,100+ yards and a run again at double-digit TDs. Last year the Falcons’ WRs caught 273 passes for 3,680 yards and 25 TDs on 400 targets.
Mohamed Sanu
The Falcons have no complaints on the production of Sanu in his three years with the team (59/653/4, 67/703/5, and 66/838/4) while starting all 46 games. His skill set invite continues targets, but he can’t match the upside of Calvin Ridley. More of a rotational player to cover short term injuries and bye weeks. He ranked 29th in 2018 at WR in PPR leagues, but I wouldn’t draft him anything higher than a WR5 this draft season. Possible 55 catches for 700+ yards and short TDs.
Other Options: Justin Hardy, Russell Gage, Christian Blake, Devin Gray, Shawn Bane, Kahlil Lewis
Tight Ends
Austin Hooper
After failing to make an impact in his first two years (19/271/3 and 49/526/3) in the NFL, Hooper became Fantasy relevant in 2018. He caught 71 of his 88 targets for 660 yards and four TDs placing him 6th in TE scoring. His catch rate (80.&) was elite with success as well in 2017 (75.4). His next step is adding more yards per catch (9.3). Last year he failed to gain over 80 yards in any game with his best success coming in three games (9/77, 9/71/1, and 10/56/1) while failing to receiver over five targets in ten other games. The Falcons completed 85 passes for 799 yards and five TDs on 104 targets in 2018. Backend TE1 with a chance at further growth in production. Next step: 75+ balls for 750+ yards and a handful of TDs.
Other Options: Luke Stocker, Logan Paulsen, Eric Saubert, Jaeden Graham, Alex Gray
Kicker
Giorgio Tavecchio
After a long successful career in Atlanta, Matt Bryant was let go in the offseason. They signed Tavecchio as his replacement or a possible place holder if a better option becomes available over the summer. In his only season in the NFL, Giorgio made 76.2 percent of his 21 field goals with one missed extra point in 34 chances. As a fill-in for the Falcons in 2018, he made all 13 of kicks while adding to his success from long range (5-for-6). Last year Atlanta scored 49 TDs while creating only 26 field goal chances. A possible value at kicker if he does indeed keep the starting job all year.
Atlanta Falcons Defensive Schedule
The Falcons have two tough matchups (LAR and SEA) vs. teams that ran the ball well in 2018 plus six other mid-tier contents (TEN, HOU, NO X 2, and CAR X 2). Their defense will have an edge in five other games (MIN, PHI, ARI, and TB X 2).
Atlanta will start the year with three games (MIN, PHI, and IND) vs. teams with passing upside followed by three other poor matchups (LAR and TB X 2). They face four teams (TEN, ARI, and SEA, and JAX) with weakness passing the ball.
Atlanta Falcons Defense
Atlanta fell to 25th in the league in rushing yards allowed (1,999) with 16 TDs and 13 runs over 20 yards. They allowed 4.9 yards per rush with 25.6 rushes per game.
The Falcons ranked 27th in passing yards allowed (4,153) with 33 TDs and only 15 Ints. QBs gained 7.5 yards per pass attempt with 46 completion over 20 yards. Their defense had 37 sacks.
Defensive Line
DE Takkarist McKinley picked up 22 tackles and seven sacks in his second year in the NFL. His game remains unimpressive in rushing defense while needing plenty of work on his tackling ability. McKinley comes to the NFL with a high motor and playmaking ability. McKinley has excellent speed (4.59) with an attacking mindset. His negative on his scouting report is his hands, which is a coachable area, which will be needed to help Takkarist become a better pass rusher.
DE Vic Beasley had more regression in 2018 after posting 15.5 sacks in 2016. He makes too many mistakes in the open field making tackles while being a liability in the run games. The Falcons selected him in the first round in 2015, but his fade last year almost led to him being released. Beasley has a lot to prove in his fifth year in the NFL.
DT Grady Jarrett developed into a top run defender over the last two years while adding 17 sacks over his previous three seasons. His next step in his growth is fewer mistakes.
DT Tyeler Davison signed to a one-year contract to work a rotational run defender. DT Deadrin Senat brings strength and power to the interior of the Falcons’ defensive line. His hands grade well, but his range is limited while being on the bench on passing downs. Deadrin should works as an early-down run-stopper while needing to improve his passing rushing skills to earn more playing time.
The Falcons hope incoming rookie John Cominsky can add value vs. the run and the pass rush. He’s a former QB that was worked hard to beef up to his new defensive position.
Linebackers
Deion Jones missed ten games last year, which came after setting a career-high in tackles (138) with one sack, three Ints, and ten defended passes. Jones will make plays in the passing game while offering minimal value in sacks and questions in his value defending the run. The Falcons added him in the 2016 NFL Draft with a second-round pick.
Foyesade Oluokun made only seven starts in his rookie season while showing risk in almost every area. He did make 91 tackles while failing to make a sack. His frame (6’2” and 215 lbs.) projects more as a safety in the NFL. Oluokun has coverage skills with plus speed (4.48) and short-area quickness, but he needs to improve his vision in run support while having risk on double moves if matchup up with elite talent at WR.
De’Vondre Campbell is a sure tackler who improved in each in the NFL vs. the run. In 2018, he set a career-high in tackles (94) with only 1.5 sacks and no production defending the pass.
Cornerbacks
CB Desmond Trufant lost some of his luster in coverage while grading highly in this area in his first years in the NFL back in 2013 and 2014. He tackles well while adding support vs. the run. The weakness around in the starting lineup could have been part of the reason for his fade.
CB Isaiah Oliver will move into the starting line up after coming off the bench in his rookie season. Oliver doesn’t have impact speed (4.5) based on his time at the 2018 NFL Combined in the forty-yard dash. His play speed in the deep passing game plays well while projecting to offer upside in press coverage. Isaiah is at his best in the trail position where he can make up ground when the ball is in the air. His technique off the ball isn’t where it needs to be leading to too much separation for WRs out of their breaks when they move to the sidelines or back to the ball. His value as a run defender has risk as well until he adds more decisiveness to his game when moving toward the line of scrimmage. Oliver has shutdown coverage skills with more experience and improved base skills.
Safeties
S Keanu Neal has 222 tackles, 14 defended passes, and one Int in his first 30 games in the NFL after being drafted in the first round in 2016. His best value comes in run support. Last year the Falcons lost him for the season in the first game of the year with a torn ACL in his left knee. Atlanta needs him to regain his previous form to help push this defense back in the right direction.
S Ricardo Allen ended up missing 13 games with an Achilles injury. In 2017, Allen finished with a high rating in both run defense and pass coverage even with a drop in production (54 tackles, two defended passes and one Int).
Falcons Fantasy Defense Outlook
A couple of injuries in the secondary and more failure by Vic Beasley led to a disappointing season for the Falcons’ defense. This season they should be improved while having plenty of questions with the health of their top personnel. Overall, this defense may surprise, but they do play in a division with talented offenses in the passing game. More of a second defense that will be found in the free agent pool in most weeks.