Kansas City Chiefs Team Outlook
In this Kansas City Chiefs Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
With Patrick Mahomes starting at QB, Kansas City developed into the best offense in the NFL leading the 565 points scored, and the number one ranking in yards gained. The Chiefs scored 150 more points than 2017 (415).
Kansas City Chiefs Coaching
Kansas City has five playoff appearances over the last six seasons with a 65-31 record under Andy Reid. Over 20 seasons as a head coach in the NFL, Reid has 195-124-1 record with 14 trips to the playoffs. He’s won ten games or more 13 times with one Super Bowl appearance. Over the last seven appearances in the playoffs, Andy has two wins in eleven contests.
Chiefs Offensive Coordinator
Eric Bieniemy now has two years of experience as the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs after working as the running backs coach in the Chiefs’ system over the previous five seasons. Bieniemy is a former NFL player with ten years of coaching experience in the pros. In 2011 and 2012, Eric held the offensive coordinator job for Colorado Buffaloes. Kansas City’s success on offense may lead to Eric pushing his way to a head coaching opportunity.
Chiefs Defensive Coordinator
The defense has been a problem for the Chiefs over the last two seasons. They finished 24th in points allowed (421), which was 82 more points than 2017 (339) and 110 more points than 2016 (311). KC gave up the second-most yards in the league in 2018. All of this led to a change at defensive coordinator. Steve Spagnuolo has the task of saving the fading defense. He’s been in the NFL since 1999 with six years of experience running a defense and three seasons as a head coach (11-41).
Kansas City Chiefs Free Agency
2019 is going to be a different season for the Chiefs due to a couple of their star players having off the field issues. They cut Kareem Hunt last year, and I don’t get a good feeling about Tyreek Hill playing in this season.
Kansas City signed Carlos Hyde for RB depth while also adding four backup offensive options – QB E.J. Manuel, FB Aaron Ripkowski, WR Sammie Coates, and TE Blake Bell. T Justin Senior will compete for a backup role.
They lost RB Spencer Ware, RB Charcandrick West, WR De’Anthony Thomas, WR Kelvin Benjamin, WR Chris Cooley, TE Demetrius Harris, G Mitch Morse, G Jeff Allen, and T Jordan Devey.
The Chiefs added three defensive linemen – DE Alex Okafor, DE Jerry Attaochu, and DE Henry Mondeaux for bench depth. They also traded for DE Emmanuel Ogbah and DE Frank Clark.
At the second and third levels of the defense, Kansas City signed LB Damien Wilson, LB Martrell Spaight, S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Bashaud Breeland, S Dontae Johnson, and S Harold Jones-Quartey. Only Mathieu and Breeland project as starters.
Their significant loss on defense was LB Justin Houston while moving on from DE Allen Bailey, LB Terrance Smith, LB Frank Zombo, CB Ron Parker, CB Steven Nelson, CB Orlando Scandrick, S Eric Berry, and S Jordan Lucas.
Kansas City Chiefs Draft
Second Round pick, 56th overall: WR Mecole Hardman, Georgia
With no first-round draft pick, the Chiefs added WR Mecole Hardman and S Juan Thornhill in the second round.
With Hill’s status in question in 2019, Hardman may need to emerge quicker than expected. He brings electric speed (4.33 40 yards dash) while having the strength to handle press coverage and make plays in the open field. His release should create an edge early in his routes, but he needs improvement in his pass patterns. Mecole needs to prove he has the toughness to take big hits.
Second Round pick, 63rd overall: S Juan Thornhill, Virginia
Thornhill comes into the NFL with a combination cornerback/safety skill set. His speed (4.42) paired with his vision, instincts, and playmaking skills should work well at the next level. His learning curve at safety does force him to overthink, which will be corrected with coaching and more experience. Juan attacks with a feel for the run game.
Third Round pick, 84th overall: DT Khalen Saunders, Western Illinois
In the third round, Kansas City added DT Khalen Saunders. For a big body, his first step gives him an edge along with the hands to win battles in the trenches. Saunders has a questionable motor while needing better conditioning to be a special player. Khalen needs to find a balance of staying home and winning in rush support and attacking every play. He also has risk when faced with bigger bodies that match his size and power.
Sixth Round pick, 201st overall: CB Rashad Fenton, South Carolina
Fenton has a press corner fell, but he’ll struggle to cover the long field due to only average speed for his position. His coverage skills work well over the short areas of the field while needing to add more strength even with his physical style of play. His legs can’t cover a missed early step in coverage, which will lead to offenses attacking his side of the field early in his career.
Sixth Round pick, 214th overall: RB Darwin Thompson, Utah St.
Thompson is an undersized back (5’8” and 200 lbs.) who lacks the wheels to beat an NFL defense on the outside or test a defense with long runs. Darwin has a grinder feel as a north/south runner. His second gear is boring along with his short-area quickness. Thompson may develop as a viable threat out of the backfield.
Sixth Round pick, 216th overall: C Nick Allegretti, Illinois
Kansas City drafted G Nick Allegretti in the seventh round. His best asset early in his career will come in run blocking, but Allegretti will struggle vs. quickness and speed in his pass protection responsibilities. His foundation in technique and position flexibility helps his opportunity to get on the field.
Chiefs Offensive Line
Kansas City finished 16th in rushing yards (1,855) with 16 TDs. Their ball carriers gained 4.8 yards per rush with a league-high 19 runs over 20 yards. When compared to most of the top rushing teams in the NFL, the Chiefs attempted about 20 percent fewer rushes per game (24.2).
They ranked 3rd in passing yards (4,955) with an incredible TD (50) to Ints 12) ratio. KC gained 8.8 yards per pass attempt, which was the highest rate in the NFL. Their offensive line allowed 26 sacks and 106 QB hits.
LT Eric Fisher
He still hasn’t developed into an impact player after Kansas City drafted him first overall in 2013. Over the last four seasons, Fisher was about the league average in pass blocking while showing some risk at time as a run blocker.
LG Cam Erving
A former first-round draft selection (2015) who has never been a good player in the NFL. Last year he started in 14 games for the Chiefs while offering failure risk in all areas.
LG Kahlil McKenzie
He may push for the starting job after being selected in the sixth round in 2018. McKenzie didn’t see the field in 2018. His base skillset points to upside as a run stopper with the hands and the first step to disrupt. McKenzie needs to become a better fighter in the trenches where he ends up with the winning move rather than retreating or face down. His vision isn’t up to NFL game speed. Kansas City converted him to the offensive line in the NFL in his rookie season.
C Austin Reiter
Reiter is listed as the starter heading into June. After riding the one over two seasons for the Browns, Reiter made four starts at center in 2018. He handled himself well in pass protection while still needing some work in his run blocking.
RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
He did an excellent job in pass protection leading to the Chiefs signing him to a five-year $41.25 contract in February of 2017. He repeated his success in pass blocking in 2017 with neutral value as a run blocker. Last year Laurent missed the final 11 games of the season with a broken left leg. When on the field, Duvernay-Tardif allowed minimal pressure while coming up short in the run game. Kansas City picked him up in the sixth round of the 2014 draft.
RT Mitchell Schwartz
He played well in both run and pass blocking in each season in the NFL. He signed a five-year $33 million contract in the offseason of 2016. Schwartz played at the highest level of his career last season with the most success coming in pass protection. The Browns drafted him in the second round in 2012.
Chiefs OL Outlook
This offensive line has weakness/questions in two spots in the starting lineup. I would grade one player as an edge and the two other options as league average. Overall, this line is below the league average with more upside if they fix their current issues.
Offensive Schedule Outlook
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Offensive Schedule Outlook
Other than three poor matchups (BAL, HOU, and CHI), Kansas City has a neutral schedule for their rushing offense in 13 games. Their best success running the ball should come against the Raiders in two games.
As great as Patrick Mahomes was last year, he does have 11 contests that rank below the league average in 2019 based on 2018 stats. He’ll be tested in three games (JAG, BAL, and MIN) while also having five mid-tier matchups (DET, TEN, CHI, and LAC x 2). Their best two chances for success in the passing game look to be the Texans and the Broncos, but I expect both defenses to be better in coverage this year.
Chiefs Offense Outlook
The Chiefs had a 40/60 percent split in their run and pass plays last year while scoring 71 TDs. Kansas City ha stud young QB, but his receiving talent will take a step back if Tyreek Hill ended up being suspended. The loss of Kareem Hunt will hurt the success of the run game as well even with Damien Williams playing well as his replacement in 2019.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes
In the history of the NFL, only four QBs have passed for more yards than Mahomes did last year. He finished with 5,097 passing yards with 52 combined TDs and 12 Ints while rushing for 272 yards on 60 carries. His completion rate (66.0) was elite. Patrick passes for over 300 yards in nine games plus one game with over 400 yards. He delivered three or more TDs in ten games, which included five games with four TDs and two games with six TDs. Mahomes relied on two exceptional players (Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill) who combined for 190 catches for 2,815 yards and 22 TDs.
No other receiver on the roster had over 40 catches. Patrick’s success last year will make him the top QB selected in most Fantasy drafts in 2019. Behind Kelce, his receiving core is loaded with question marks if Hill misses any time. My gut says to fade based on his draft value even with elite talent. I’m going to set his early protections at 4,500+ yards with a chance at 35 TDs. Last year Hunt and Hill accounted for 19 of his 50 passing TDs.
Update 8/15/2019: After the dust settled with the Tyreek Hill off the field issues, I ended up upgrading Patrick Mahomes projections over the summer. Currently, he remains the top QB in the land while expecting 5,200 combined yards with about 42 TDs. His path and opportunity still should be an edge at QB no matter where he’s drafted in Fantasy leagues.
Other Options: Chad Henne, Chase Litton, Kyle Shurmur, John Lovett
Running Backs
Damien Williams
Williams benefitted from the Kareem Hunt suspension in 2018, creating a great opportunity in a high scoring offense. Williams started the last five games for the Chiefs in the regular season and the playoffs where he delivered four impact games (123 combined yards with two TDs and six catches, 140 combined yards with one TD and seven catches, 154 combined yards with one TD and five catches, and 96 combined yards with three TDs and five catches). Over his first four seasons in the NFL, Damien gained only 3.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yards per catch.
In 2018, the Chiefs’ RBs gained 2,602 combined yards with 26 TDs and 82 catches on 408 touches. There is a great RB opportunity here if Kansas City’s offense runs on as many cylinders as 2018. Williams ran with power and finish when given a starting opportunity while looking the RB1 part. Carlos Hyde will get touches, and he has pass-catching talent. A fair evaluation gives Damien a chance 1,500+ yards with double-digit TDs and 40+ catches.
Update 8/15/2019: The lead RB for the Chiefs should have a great opportunity, but a multiple split in touches will be doom for Damien Williams based on his early draft value. Williams battled a hamstring issue in early August leading to some coach-speak about other RBs being in the mix for playing time. The Fantasy owner in me feels that he will be a bust. His lack of resume and a slow start to the year could invite more of a rotation than expected for Williams. I won’t totally dismiss his opportunity, and his injury issue has cleared up, but I would instead look to roster him at a discount while buying the Carlos Hyde handcuff. His latest update in projections points to 1,250 combined yards with about 11 TDs and 45 catches.
Carlos Hyde
After a productive season for the 49ers in 2017 (1,288 combined yards with eight TDs and 59 catches), Hyde struggled to make plays in Cleveland eventually leading to a lost job and a trade to the Jaguars. On the year, Carlos gained 604 combined yards with five TDs and ten catches. He gained only 3.3 yards per rush and 3.3 yards per catch. When at his best in 2016, Carlos gained 4.6 yards per carry. A veteran back with passing catching and goal-line value. I expect him to be active while stealing some of the touches away from Williams.
Update 8/15/2019: Carlos Hyde tends to linger in drafts after the tenth round in PPR leagues. He gained some valuable snaps in training camp when Damien Williams battled his hamstring issue. Hyde has enough experience in the NFL to steal a decent piece of the Kansas City running game if Williams leaves any part of the RB opportunity open.
Darrel Williams
Over his first three seasons at LSU, Williams only had 191 touches for 962 combined yards with ten TDs and 15 catches. His game started to shine in 2017 in his senior season when he gained 1,151 combined yards with nine TDs and 23 catches on 168 touches. In his rookie season, the Chiefs gave Darrel only 13 rushes for 44 yards while catching all three of his targets for 27 yards and a TD. Worth a flier for a late handcuff if the summer news is positive on his direction.
Darwin Thompson (Added 8/15/2019)
Thompson flashed in the preseason (51 combined yards with one catch and a TD) leading to Fantasy owner pushing him up draft boards. I went back in reviewed my research on him and determined that my initial thoughts were confirmed. (Thompson is an undersized back (5’8” and 200 lbs.) who lacks the wheels to beat an NFL defense on the outside or test a defense with long runs. Darwin has a grinder feel like a north/south runner. His second gear is boring along with his short-area quickness. Thompson may develop as a viable threat out of the backfield.) He needs an injury to improve his position in the RB rotation in Kansas City.
Other Options: Darwin Thompson, James Williams, Marcus Marshall
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill
In his two seasons as a starter for the Chiefs, Hill developed into an impact player. He broke through for 75 catches for 1,183 yards and seven TDs in 2017. His greatness pushed even higher with Patrick Mahomes behind center last year. He finished 2018 as the second-highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with 87 catches for 1,479 yards and 113 TDs on 137 targets. Tyreek had six impact games (7/169/2, 7/142/3, 7/117/2, 10/215/2, 8/139, and 5/101/1). Hill came to the NFL with a domestic violence issue haunting him in college only to have his slate wiped clean last summer.
Unfortunately, his decision making at home led to another domestic issue. At this point, Tyreek can’t be trusted until Fantasy owners get a cleaner update from the NFL’s league office. If Hill is cleared to play, he flies back up draft boards. Up: 100+ catches for 1,500+ yards and double-digit TDs. Down: Released by the Chiefs leading to a lost season.
Update 8/15/2019: Tyreek Hill was a wild card in drafts this spring and early summer due to his battle with his off the field issues that had much more layers than the average fan knew about. The NFL reinstated him in mid-July giving Fantasy owners the green light to draft him with confidence plus return the possible lost value in the other surrounding Chiefs’ offensive players. Currently, Hill has a top-five WR ranking in PPR leagues, but he did battle a quad/hamstring issue in late July that looks to be non-factor as of today.
Sammy Watkins
Over the last two seasons, Watkins had played for two different high scoring offense. His role/opportunity was better for the Chiefs, but Sammy missed six games. In 2018, he had the highest catch rate (72.7) of his career, which led to 40 catches for 519 yards and three TDs. Most of his production came in four games (6/100, 5/55/1, 6/78, and 8/107/2). With the Rams, Watkins did show scoring ability (eight TDs in 15 games).
Sammy is a former first-round draft pick who flashed in his sophomore season in the NFL (60/1047/9). At age 26, he is just reaching the prime of his career while needing to stay healthy. Based on the greatness of Mr. Mahomes, I have to be interested in his potential upside while expecting him to be discounted on draft day. Possible 70+ catches for 1,000+ yards and a run at ten TDs if he plays 16 games even if Tyreek Hill is on the field for a full year.
Update 8/15/2019: Once Tyreek Hill was cleared to play in 2019, Fantasy owners bailed on Sammy Watkins in drafts. He went from a possible fifth pick in PPR leagues to an eighth rounder. I see a buying opportunity, which massive upside if he can stay healthy for 16 games.
Mecole Hardman
Despite only 60 catches for 961 yards and 11 TDs over the last two seasons at Georgia covering 29 games, Fantasy owners have priced Hardman as a WR6 in the early draft seasons in PPR leagues also helped by the off the field issue by Tyreek Hill. Mecole gives Mahomes another home run deep threat with the gas to blow by defenders. Hardman can turn a short pass to a long TD if he breaks into the open field. He had some early long catches in college, which won’t be the case in the NFL. For now, an explosive WR who will lack consistency in his production and opportunity in his rookie season. Player to keep an eye due to the greatness of the Chiefs’ QB.
Other Options: Demarcus Robinson, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter, Bryon Pringle, Davon Grayson
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
Kelce keeps getting better, which was helped by the upgrade in QB last year. Travis has over 1,000 yards and over 80 catches in each of his previous three seasons highlighted by his electric year (103/1336/10 on 150 targets) in 2018. Kelce in finished with five games with over 100 yards receiving (7/109/2, 8/114, 5/100, 10/127/1, and 12/168/2) and eight games with seven catches or more. Last year Kelce was the 15th highest scoring skill player while creating over 100+ Fantasy points edge in PPR leagues over the 5th highest scoring TE and more than a 150 point edge over the TEs ranked nine through 12. A special player who will have another great opportunity in 2019. More the same while expecting his most significant growth this season coming in TDs.
Other Options: Blake Bell, David Wells, Deon Yelder, Joe Fortson, Nick Keizer
Kicker
Harrison Butker
Over his first 29 games of his NFL career, Butker made 89.9 percent of his field goals with success from 50 yards or more (6-for-9). In 2018, he led the NFL in extra points (65), but he did miss four tries. His value as a kicker fade last season due to explosiveness by the Chiefs’ scoring TDs in the red zone. In 2017, he led the NFL with 42 field goal attempts in only 13 games, but that number fell to 27 last year. Top three kicker for me while understanding the needs Kansas City to regress in their TD success in 2019.
Defensive Schedule Outlook
The Chiefs have a neutral schedule for their rush defense. They will be tested by the Ravens on the ground while having three games (MIN and OAK X 2) vs. teams that struggled to run the ball last year.
Kansas City has four games (JAC, BAL, TEN, and CHI) against teams that had a tough time passing the ball in 2018. Their pass defense will be challenged in two games (IND and GB) plus four mid-tier matchups (MIN, NE, and LAC x 2).
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Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Outlook
The Chiefs ranked 27th in the NFL in 2018 defending the run (2,114 yards). They allowed 5.0 yards per carry with 19 rushing TDs and 11 rushes over 20 yards.
Kansas City finished 31st in passing yards allowed (4,374) with 30 TDs and 15 Ints. Their defense had growth in 52 sacks with failure in long plays (65 catches of 20 yards or more).
Defensive Line
DE Alex Okafor should be a steady option in 2019 after signing a three-year $18 contract in the offseason. Okafor picked up 79 tackles, 8.5 sacks, and five defended passes over the last two season for the Saints. Alex should improve rush defense after being league average in 2018. DE Frank Clark came to Kansas City after the season in a big trade that cost them a first and second draft selections over next two seasons. Clark set a career-high in sacks (13) while adding 41 tackles, two defended passes, and three forced fumbles.
Chris Jones was one of the best interior linemen in 2018 when delivered 15.5 sacks with 40 tackles and five defended passes. Jones added value in run support even with too many missed tackles. DT Derrick Nnadi fits the beefy role needed to stop the run with strength being his biggest asset. His first step can be disruptive, but Derrick lacks the follow through speed to add value in sacks.
Linebackers
Reggie Ragland almost doubled his rookie season’s total in tackles (86). Overall, Ragland graded as a liability in the run game. Kansas City drafted him in the second round in 2016. Anthony Hitchens added 135 tackles with no value in the pass rush while adding risk defending the run. Damien Wilson should help in run support with no upside rushing the QB.
Secondary
CB Kendall Fuller failed to match his 2017 success with the Redskins in coverage. He allowed a high catch rate, but low yards per catch and minimal damage in TDs. Fuller did show growth in the run game. CB Bashaud Breeland missed most of 2018 with a groin injury while starting the year as a free agent. Breeland can be hit or miss in coverage.
S Tyrann Mathieu is the player he once was when he came in the league in 2013 as a third-round draft pick. Mathieu had 89 tackles last year with three sacks and eight defended passes. S Armani Watts will get a bump in playing time after getting drafted in the fourth round in 2018. Watts has coverage skills while lacking the strength and power to add an impact supporting the run. His style works better when moving toward the line of scrimmage while needing to improve his tackling skills. Watts will compete with rookie Juan Thornhill for the starting job.
Chiefs 2019 Fantasy Defense Outlook
Overall, this defense has talent on the defensive line, but they have risk at the second level of the defense with questions at the safety position. More of a second Fantasy defense as playing from the lead will help their sack total and possibly create turnovers.
