Pittsburgh Steelers
Coaching
The Steelers have been one of the best franchises in the NFL since 2001 while having elite success since 1972. Over the last 18 seasons, Pittsburgh has 188-98-2 record with 12 playoff appearances and two Super Bowl wins. Last year they missed the playoffs for the first time in since 2013.
Mike Tomlin returns for his 13th season as head coach. He has a 125-66-1 record with eight playoff berths and one Super Bowl title. Tomlin has an 8-7 record in the postseason, but only 3-5 over his last five appearances. His path to the Super Bowl would be much easier if he didn’t have to deal with the New England Patriots in most seasons. Mike hasn’t ever had a losing season in his NFL coaching career.
Offensive Coordinator
Randy Fichtner took over as offensive coordinator for the Steelers in 2018 after spending the last 11 seasons in the Steelers’ system as a wide receiver and quarterback coach. Over the previous five years, Pittsburgh ranked in the top four in offensive yards gained in four seasons. They success in yards hasn’t translated as well in points scored. The Steelers ranked 7th (436), 4th (423), 10th (399), 8th (406), and 6th (428) over the last five years in points scored. The loss of Antonio Brown puts a ton of pressure on the development of their younger second tier WRs.
Defensive Coordinator
Keith Butler will run the defense for the fifth straight season after working as their linebackers’ coach for 12 years. The Steelers’ defense slipped to sixth in the NFL in yards allowed in 2018 with regression in points allowed (360 – 16th).
Free Agency
The significant loss in the offseason was Antonio Brown who whined his way out of town. Pittsburgh only recouped a couple of 2019 drafts picks (3rd and 5th rounds). The Steelers added WR Donte Moncrief to cover only a small portion of the loss.
The Le’Veon Bell holdout ended his free agency release this spring. Bell signed with the Jets.
On defense, Pittsburgh added DE Conor Sheehy, LB Mark Barron, CB Steven Nelson, and S Jack Tocho. Only Barron projects as a starting player.
The Steelers moved on from RB Stevan Ridley, WR Justin Hunter, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, and TE Jesse James on offense. James was the most productive player lost. They parted ways with DT Letrrius Walton, LB Anthony Chickillo, LB L.J. Fort, CB Morgan Burnett, CB Coty Sensabaugh, and S Nat Berhe from their defense. All of the losses were minimal.
Draft
With the tenth overall pick, the Steelers invested in LB Devin Bush. His game is built on plus speed and quickness while being undersized (5’11” and 235 lbs.). Bush will be a plus player in pass coverage with an edge filling gaps vs. the run. His vision is favorable, but his first step is trailing. Even with strength, Devin will struggle to beat big bodies if he gets caught in traffic.
The first dart to replace Antonio Brown in the draft came in the third round with WR Layne Diontae. Based on his frame (5’10” and 185 lbs.), Diontae has a Brown feel. He lacks strength with questionable value in his route running and his hands. Layne is dangerous with the ball in his hands while offering an early win off the line even vs. press coverage. His speed (4.53 40 yard dash at the NFL combine) is below the elite WRs in the game. Pittsburgh will use him on gadget plays and slants to allow him to make big plays with his legs.
CB Justin Layne was the second choice in the third round. His foundation skill set points to a press corner where his size (6’2”) creates an edge. Layne doesn’t have impact speed while lacking the attack to avoid easy catches on comeback routes. Justin needs to get stronger plus improve on his aggressiveness out of breaks. His best value early in his career will come over the short field.
Pittsburgh added a pair of offensive players in the fourth and fifth rounds – RB Benny Snell and TE Zach Gentry. Snell is a big back (5’10” and 225 lbs.), but he doesn’t offer an edge in speed (4.66 40 yards dash), quickness, or strength). Benny projects as a between the tackles runner with value at the goal line. His lower half helps to break tackles, but he won’t make many big plays. Gentry has the feel of a blocking TE, but he lacks strength and fight in his game at this point of his career. His route running should play well, but Zack tends to have a plodding style as a runner with weakness in his hands.
In the sixth round, the Steelers threw three darts as the defense – DE Sutton Smith, DT Isaiah Buggs, and LB Ulysees Gilbert.
Smith is another undersized linebacker (6’0” and 235 lbs.), but he plays with power, strength, and quickness while attacking the QB. Sutton piled up plenty of sacks and tackles for losses in college, but he’ll need to prove he has the stuff to defeat the big bodies in the NFL. His overall speed (4.69 40 yard dash) is below par when considering his stature.
In college, Buggs played on the outside of the defensive line. His base skill set should work well when asked to move inside in the pros. His first step creates disruption with the base to push in the pass rush. Isaiah needs to improve his hands with some questions about his ability to win vs. big long-armed offensive lineman. Enough talent to start in his rookie season.
Pittsburgh took another chance on an undersized linebacker (6’0’ and 225 lbs.) with Gilbert. His best value comes in run support when attacking the line of scrimmage. His vision grades well, but his quest to peek in the backfield can lead to mistakes in pass coverage. Ulysees needs to get stronger.
With the last pick in the seventh round, the Steelers shifted to the offensive line with the selection of T Derwin Gray. His technique needs plenty of help in run blocking. Gray can handle his own on the outside in pass blocking, but his lack of mobility can hurt vs. speed rushers. More of a project than a starting option at this point of his career.
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Offensive Line
The Steelers fell to 31st in rushing yards (1,445) in 2018 despite, which was their second straight season of a major demise. They gained only 4.2 yards per carry with 16 rushing TDs. Pittsburgh had no runs over 40 yards for the second consecutive year while gaining over 20 yards on ten carries.
Their offensive line allowed only 24 sacks and 65 QB hits. The Steeler gained the second most yards passing (5,008) with 35 TDs and 17 Ints. Their WRs had the second most receptions over 40 yards (16).
LT Alejandro Villanueva
Villanueva went from unknown to one of the better offensive linemen over the last three seasons. Last year he played the best of his career in pass protection even with a high volume of passing attempts. His run blocking did regress for the second straight year where Villanueva may be a liability.
LG Ramon Foster
Foster remains an asset in pass protection, but he’s a couple of years removed from his best days in run blocking. Over the last two seasons, Ramon had been a below average player with age (33) no longer his friend.
C Maurkice Pouncey
Pouncey is a former first-round draft pick (2010). Over his career, he’s battled multiple injuries with a couple resulting in surgery. Pass blocking has been his strength over the last four seasons. Just like most of the players on the Steelers’ offensive line in 2018, Maurkice lost his way as a run blocker. When healthy and in top form, Pouncey should be an asset in all areas.
RG David DeCastro
Castro is one of the top players at his position in both run and passing blocking. The Steelers drafted him in the first round in 2012. After posting two elite seasons in 2015 and 2017, David remained a considerable edge in pass protection last year, but he regressed to a career-low level in run blocking.
RT Matt Feiler
Feiler took over as the right tackles in Week 8 after seeing minimal snaps in 2017. He finished the year as a slight negative in both pass and run blocking. His path to the NFL (undrafted free agent) invites job loss risk.
O-Line Fantasy Impact
An interesting dilemma when reviewing the Steeler’ offensive line in 2018. With no Le’Veon Bell in the lineup last year, the rushing offense regressed even with productive stats from James Connor. Maybe the volume of runs by Bell covered up some of the holes in run blocking grades by the Steelers’ offensive lineman. Pittsburgh will throw the ball, and they do have pass blocking talent in four of the five spots in the starting lineup. I would rate this offensive line in the top third in the league helped by the offensive talent on the roster.
Offense Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Pittsburgh will struggle to run the ball in two games vs. the Ravens. They have six matchups (MIA, ARI, CLE x 2, and CIN X 2) that were favorable based on 2018 stats. I expect the Browns to be much better defending the run this year.
Their pass schedule looks slightly unfavorable with four poor games (ARI, BUF, and BAL X 2). Their best success in the passing game should come vs. the Jets and the Bengals (2).
Offense
Last year the Steelers attempted only 350 rushes, which accounted for 33.7 percent of their offensive plays. Over the previous three seasons with Le’Veon Bell rushing the ball, Pittsburgh averaged 408 runs per seasons highlighted by 2017 (437).
On the flip side, Pittsburgh threw the ball a league-high 689 times. With no Antonio Brown in 2019, the Steelers will have to become much more balanced on offense.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger
For the first time since 2014, Roethlisberger played in all 16 games. He set a career high in completions (452), pass attempts (675), passing yards (5129), TDs (34), and Ints (16) with four of those categories leading the NFL. His completion rate (67.0) remains in an elite area. Even with a great season, Ben only threw over two TDs in five games. He passed for over 300 yards in eight games.
Over his 15 years in the NFL, Roethlisberger has a 144-69-1 record with two Super Bowl titles. When looking at his 2019 receiving options, Ben has one stud WR with a reasonable pass catching back. The Steelers questions at WR2, WR3, and TE point to a sharp decline in his pass attempts and production. Pittsburgh should push to become more balanced on offense this season. Look for 80 to 100 fewer pass attempts, which points to about 4,500 passes yards with about 28 TDs. More of a QB2 for me in 2019 unless his secondary WRs earn high marks in training camp.
Mason Rudolph
Over the last three seasons at Oklahoma State, Rudolph passed for 12,765 yards with 86 TDs and 22 Ints. He scored 16 rushing TDs over the last two seasons despite gaining only 96 yards rushing on 144 carries. Mason will need time to develop as the backup QB for the Steelers. In his rookie season, Rudolph didn’t see the field.
Other Options: Joshua Dobbs, Devin Hodges
Running Backs
James Conner
Over 13 games, Conner did his best impersonation of Le’Veon Bell. James finished as the 6th highest scoring RB in PPR leagues while averaging 17.63 Fantasy points per game. What he did do better than Bell was score TDs (13). Over a four-game stretch midseason, Conner gained 689 combined yards with seven TDs and 20 catches while averaging 22 touches per game. His only other game of value came in Week 1 (192 combined yards with two TDs and five catches).
Pittsburgh didn’t commit to Conner in his other eight games (8/17, 15/61, 9/19, 13/65, 9/25, 15/60, and 14/64) while having a step back in value in the passing games over his last five starts (1/8, 6/24, 4/42, 3/14, and 3/30). His injury created a window for Jaylen Samuels to flaunt his skill set, which will hurt his overall chances in 2019. I’m going to price Connor at 250 rushes for 1,100+ yards plus about 50 catches with another 400+ yards. I expect double-digit TDs. All of this adds up to about 260 Fantasy points or a back-end RB1. A Fantasy owner in 2019 has to be careful not to price him as a top six back in the league.
Update 8/9/2019: The RB rotation in Pittsburgh doesn’t look as clean as it has been when Le’Veon Bell hogged most of the touches. James Conner is going to lose targets in the passing game to Jaylen Samuel plus Benny Snell may be a factor at the goal line and in short-yardage situations. Conner looks overpriced in early August (ADP of 16.7) with rising questions with his opportunity.
Jaylen Samuels
The Steelers gave Samuels only 19 touches for 85 combined yards with two TDs and seven catches over the first 12 games of the season. The injury to James Conner led to two productive games (92 combined yards and seven catches and 172 combined yards with two catches) plus one steady game (64 combined yards with one TD and three catches). Samuel has a full back feel who has enough quickness to fill in as a lead runner. His hands grade well, and Jaylen can make plays in the slots if asked to line up against linebackers.
Over his last three seasons at NC State, Jaylen caught 195 passes for 1,755 yards and 18 receiving TDs. He added 167 rushes for 964 yards and 27 TDs over this span. His receiving skills set ranks higher than Conner for me, and he does have a nose for the goal line. At the very least, Samuels receives between eight and ten touches per game with more upside if an injury occurs to the lead RB. Must own insurances.
Update 8/9/2019: Jaylen Samuel played well last year and his follow through in training camp points to a nice role on passing downs in 2019 for the Steelers.
Benny Snell
If James Conner had an injury in 2019, Snell could work as the early-down back. Over three seasons at Kentucky, Benny gained 4,089 combined yards with 48 TDs and 29 catches while receiving 766 touches. He runs with patience and vision while lacking the wheels to make big plays. Snell offers minimal value in the passing game.
Other Options: Trey Edmunds, Ralph Webb, Malik Williams, Travon McMillian
Wide Receivers
Juju Smith-Schuster
Steelers’ fans will now have to root for the younger elite WR on the roster with Antonio Brown shipped to Oakland. Smith-Schuster may even be the better player. Last year he caught 111 of his 166 targets for 1,426 yards and seven TDs, which led to the 8th highest scoring at WR in PPR leagues. Juju had eight games with over 100 yards receiving and eight games with eight catches or more. Pittsburgh gave him ten targets or more in ten games. Last year Pittsburgh completed 283 passes for 3,302 yards and 24 TDs on 436 targets to the WR position. Smith-Schuster had about 40 percent of the WR opportunity in 2018.
Even with a drop off in passing attempts, Juju will hold value by seeing a push toward 50 percent of the WR chances. The new and improved Antonio Brown with the skill set to catch 120+ balls for 1,500+ yards and a dozen TDs. Don’t be shy with his draft value this season. Pittsburgh will make an effort to erase all their WR records with Smith-Schuster.
James Washington
In each season at Oklahoma State, Washington showed growth in his production (28/456/6, 53/1087/10, 71/1380/10, and 74/1549/13). He scored 33 TDs over his last 39 games with ten or more TDs in each of his previous three years. Over four seasons at college, James caught 226 passes for 4,472 yards and 39 TDs while gaining an astounding 19.8 yards per catch.
Washington is a high-cut WR with long legs, which leads to him having deceptive deep speed. He catches the ball with his hands while offering a plus release off the line. He struggled to find his rhythm in his rookie season (16/217/1 on 38 targets). His game is more built on a big-play outside WR than a possession type player. Washington should emerge as the WR, which sets a playable floor if the summer reports are positive. A reasonable chance at 60 catches for 900+ yards and five to seven TDs with a 16-week starting job.
Update 8/9/2019: James Washington remains in a battle with Donte Moncrief for the WR2 job for the Steelers. Early in July, Washington was trending forward, but he may have lost some momentum creating a possible opportunity for Diontae Johnson in the preseason. Washington played well in college, which points to a nice step forward in his second year in the NFL. James hasn’t done enough in training camp to push up his ADP (101.6 in the FFWC).
Donte Moncrief
For much of his career, Moncrief underachieved his skill set while being a Fantasy tease in drafts. In his only season with the Jaguars, he caught 48 of 89 targets for 668 yards and three TDs. In his career, Donte has a short catch rate (57.8) while scoring 21 TDs in 69 games. Moncrief offers size and speed while receiving a significant upgrade in QB play. He’s young enough to emerge as the WR2 in this offense, but his history of failure and up and down play tempers my expectations. Worth a flier if now overpriced on draft day. Think of him a dual WR2 in this offense, which works if he’s drafted after round 12 in 12-team drafts.
Update 8/9/2019: Donte Moncrief battled a minor finger injury in July, which may lead to him being limited in the first preseason game.
Diontae Johnson
In his sophomore season at Toledo, Johnson caught 74 passes for 1,278 yards and 13 TDs pointing to more upside. His opportunity and success fade in 2018 (49/761/8), but Pittsburgh saw enough in his game to drafts him the second round. His frame, hands, and open field movements have a lot in common with Antonio Brown. Diontae will be explosive with the ball in his hands, but he needs to clean up route running and get stronger. A tricky player early in his career. Player to follow while keeping a close ear the training camp news to see if he can hit the ground running.
Update 8/9/2019: Diontae Johnson played well in training camp helping him inch up the depth chart. An early August hip issue will cost him playing time over the next week or so.
Eli Rogers
In his rookie season, Rogers caught 48 passes for 504 yards and three TDs on 66 targets in 13 games. He played his way out of a reasonable role in 2017 (18/149/1) while missing most of the last year with a slow recovery from a torn ACL. Possible slot receiver for Pittsburgh in 2019.
Other Options: Ryan Switzer, Trey Griffey, Johnson Holton, Tevin Jones, Diontae Spencer
Tight Ends
Vance McDonald
In a semi-starting role, McDonald set career highs in catches (50), receiving yards (610), and targets (72) while scoring four TDs. Last year both Vance and Jesse James were on the field for 564 snaps each. Pittsburgh completed 86 passes for 1,119 yards and six TDs on 117 targets. McDonald has never played a full season in his six years in the NFL. I don’t believe A + B = C here, but Vance will surely get a bump in chances if he stays healthy. I’d priced in some missed playing time while understanding a 60/700/5 season is within reach. Just be sure not to overpay for his risk on draft day.
Zach Gentry
Gentry played in 21 games over the last two seasons at Michigan. He caught 49 passes for 817 yards and four TDs highlighted by his 2018 season (32/514/2). His yards per catch (16.7) shows Zach’s down the field value while owning some route running skills. He projects to offer value as a blocker with seam and zone potential. His playing time with minimal early in his career along with his opportunity.
Other Options: Xavier Grimble, Kevin Rader, Christian Scotland-Williamson
Kicker
Chris Boswell
After finishing 7th in kicking scoring in 2017, Boswell was a disaster last year. He made only 65 percent of his 20 field goal chances with five missed extra points in 48 tries while battling a groin injury. Pittsburgh scored 54 TDs in 2018 while creating only 23 field goal chances. Over his first three years in the NFL, Chris made 89.5 percent of his field goals with success from 50 yards or more (6-for-8). His job is on the line in training camp, but his previous success should keep him in the NFL. Possible top 12 kicker if he wins the starting job.
Defensive Schedule
Pittsburgh will be challenged in the run game in four games (SEA, LAR, and BAL X 2). The only opponent will a weak rushing attack in 2018 was the Cardinals, which should be improved in 2019. Overall, their schedule for the run defense ranks below the league average.
The Steelers may have the easiest schedule defending the pass based on last year’s stats. They have nine games nine favorable matchups (SEA, MIA, ARI, BUF, NYJ, CIN X 2, and BAL X 2). Pittsburgh will be tested vs. the pass in four games (NE, IND, LAR, and LAC).
Defense
Pittsburgh finished sixth in the NFL vs. the run (1,538 yards) with 13 TDs and ten runs over 20 yards. Their success was helped by allowing only 23.1 rushing attempts per game. The Steelers allowed 4.2 yards per carry.
They ranked 10th in passing yards allowed (3,697) with 27 TDs and eight Ints. The Steelers’ defense had 52 sacks with QBs gaining only 7.1 yards per pass attempt.
Defensive Line
DT Javon Hargrave set a career high in tackles (49) and sacks (6.5) while adding value in run support. 2018 was the best season of his career while continuing to work as a rotational player. DE Cameron Heyward played his best defense over the last two seasons for the Steelers where he picked up 91 tackles, 20 sacks, and six defended passes while helping to anchor the run defense. DE Stephon Tuitt missed two more games last year giving him ten missed games over the previous four years. His play improved for the fourth straight season vs. the runs while chipping in with 5.5 sacks. Rockie Isaiah Buggs adds another player with playmaking ability off the bench.
Linebackers
T.J. Watt turned into a beast rushing the QB (13), which led to six forced fumbles and three defended passes. He picked up 68 tackles as well. His game plays well in run support while needing to improve in pass coverage and minimizing the mistakes in missed tackles. Pittsburgh drafted him in the first round in 2017. Bud Dupree will make some plays, but he tends to hurt the run defense. He’s a former first-round draft pick (2015) who has 19 career sacks in 54 games.
Mark Barron missed six games over the last two years, which led to fade in his play. When at his best, Barron will make plenty of tackles with minimal value attacking the QB and helping in pass coverage. Rookie Devin Bush should step into the starting lineup after being drafted 10th overall in this year’s draft. Bush adds speed to the defense, which will improve Pittsburgh’s pass coverage.
Secondary
CB Joe Haden held WRs to low yards per catch with minimal damage in TDs. His one shortfall last year came in his tackling ability. Overall, Haden isn’t the player he once was, but he remains a serviceable cover corner. Pittsburgh signed CB Steven Nelson to a three-year deal for just over $25 million in the offseason. In his two healthy seasons for the Chiefs over the last three years, Nelson had 31 combined defended passes and four Ints. In 2018, Nelson finished as a league average player vs. the pass and defending the run. The Steelers hopes CB Artie Burns finds his way after playing his way to a bench role in 2018. Burns is a former first-round draft selection in 2016 who gives up too many TDs.
S Terrell Edmunds delivered 78 tackles with one sack, one Int, and four defended passes in his rookie season after getting drafted in the first round. Edmonds doesn’t offer much attacking the QB and his run support was lacking. His talent points to much higher upside. S Sean Davis showed growth in all areas his third season in the NFL. Davis has risk in coverage, and he can whiff on too many tackles. Last year he posted 80 tackles with seven defended passes.
The Steelers’ defense will pressure the QB leading to plenty of sacks. They need to create more turnovers in the secondary to get offenses off the field. Overall, Pittsburgh has top talent at multiple positions with a foundation of upside options. This defense should be considered a top ten Fantasy defense in 2019 after ranking 9th in 2018. The return game may have some firepower Diontae Johnson returns kicks.
