*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted
This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single-entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash!
Top Pitchers
Jacob deGrom (NYM)
deGrom has been lights out allowing just six earned runs over his last four starts spanning 25 innings with 33 strikeouts over that stretch. We watched Noah Syndergaard shut down a White Sox team last night that has NOT been hitting the ball whatsoever and may be without one of their better hitters in Yoan Moncada tonight after exiting last night’s game early. The Mets’ ace is the top arm tonight for me but this next guy is right there with him.
Jose Berrios (MIN)
Even after a productive four-game series against the Diamondbacks, the Marlins bats have been fucking dreadful over the past month against right-handed pitching. As a team, they’ve posted the third-highest K rate, third-worst ISO, thurd-worst wOBA, and second-worst walk rate against righties. Berrios comes in less expensive than deGrom but doesn’t bring the same strikeout upside IMO. As far as points per dollar, Berrios can end up being right there with deGrom tonight given that he’ll have the better park shift and the luxury of facing the pitcher spot in an already weak lineup.
Vinnie Velasquez (PHI)
*rain could be a factor here*
Vinnie is coming off of a great outing his last time out against the sorry-ass Detroit Tigers as he struck out nine over 5.2 innings while walking just two. The Giants came into last night’s game hitting well and with a great park shift in their favor and the WOAT Drew Smyly on the mound you could’ve expected the Giants to get a pretty good amount of runs, eh? Wrong. The Giant bats didn’t do anything against Smyly but they did score two runs on solo home runs against the bullpen (shocker). Vinnie at $7,500 should be a popular, yet productive play here tonight.
Miles Mikolas (STL)
All three of Mikolas’ recent starts have been against N.L. Central foes (twice against the Pirates and once against the Reds) and all three of those outings were solid as he walked away with victories twice and allowed a total of six earned runs over 21 innings. Tonight he’ll get a chance to face the Cubs for the third time this season and the first time at home since May 31st when he went seven innings strong allowing six hits and one earned runs. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to come away with a victory in that outing and he didn’t have much to offer in the strikeout category. Considering the price and the options available tonight, I don’t see any reason to not consider Mikolas as an SP2 option. The Cubs lineup is perceived as good on paper but let’s face it, they’ve been and continue to be one of the more inconsistent lineups in baseball, most recently moving Robel Garcia into the leadoff spot, calling up Ian Happ who wasn’t hitting at triple-A, and bouncing guys like Heyward and Schwarber all over the lineup. The only steady guys have been Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez and even they have shown pressing tendencies. While we can’t expect much as far as upside from Mikolas, I expect a good, solid outing here for him.
Bats to Build Around
My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables.
Michael Brantley (HOU)
While the Houston bats are pricey, Brantley jumps out to me as a solid bat to build around tonight. Over his last 11 games, the former Indian has an average exit velocity of 92 miles-per-hour, posted a 42 percent fly-ball rate, and 54 percent hard-hit rate. Furthermore, over his last 90 plate appearences, Brantley has been locked in with a .444 wOBA, .278 ISO, and 52 percent hard-hit rate. The former Indian is obviously comfortable hitting at Progressive Field from his time with the Cleveland and he fits right in the middle of this potent Astros lineup.
Matt Olson (OAK)
Recently acquired Jordan Lyles gets the start for the Brewers tonight and breaking news: The trade didn’t help him all of the sudden to the point where he can get lefties out. On the season, the platoon has a .416 wOBA with 2.01 HR/9 against Lyles, who hasn’t had much luck of late keeping the ball in the ballpark especially over his last four starts allowing eight home runs in his last 11 innings. On the flip side, Olson has a .349 wOBA and .247 ISO against righties this season with 13 of his 22 home runs coming against the platoon.
Michael Conforto (NYM)
Conforto has been hot for the Mets with home runs in each of his last three games, including last night against a lefty which was an absolute tank. Over his last 89 plate appearances, MC has a .363 wOBA and .235 ISO to go along with a 47 percent fly-ball rate and 40 percent hard-hit rate. Against righties, over his last 54 plate appearances, Conforto has posted a .411 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 44 percent fly-ball rate. Lucas Giolito, Chicago’s starter tonight, has been somewhat hittable of late compared to how dominant he was earlier in the season. Over his last month, he’s allowed a 50 percent fly-ball rate to lefties (43 total batters faced). Conforto is priced nicely at $4,000 tonight, likely hitting in the two-hole where he has flourished, and should see an at-bat or two against the struggling White Sox bullpen.
Bryce Harper (PHI)
Harper hasn’t historically hit Samardzija well, but this is a spot where he’ll be able to take advantage of him at home with a great park shift. Samardzija has struggled against lefties on the road allowing 2.42 HR/9, a .349 wOBA, and 50 percent fly-ball rate. Over the past month, Harper has posted a .401 wOBA and .246 ISO against righties with a 42 percent fly-ball rate. Over that span at home against righties, Harper’s .450 wOBA and .333 ISO leap off the page. After three walks last night, look for Bryce to be aggressive tonight in a great hitting environment as the weather looks to be clearing out right around game time. Warm temps and post-rain humidity in a good hitters park are pretty much all you can ask for against a fly-ball pitcher and that’s what we’re going to get.
Quick Hits
Favorite value bat(s)
Khris Davis (OAK), Marwin Gonzalez (MIN), Jesus Aguilar (MIL)
Low owned home run
Francisco Lindor (CLE)
Position that is weakest/has the most value
Second Base: Jonathan Schoop (MIN), Jurickson Profar (OAK), Cesar Hernandez (PHI)
GOOD LUCK!