2019 Wide Receiver Primer
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In this 2019 Wide Receiver primer, we go through the rankings and tiers of the position to familiarize ourselves with the entire field.
Before a Fantasy owner starts building his WR core for the 2019 season, it’s essential to get a feel for the history at WR in PPR leagues, which can be found at Fulltime Fantasy with these two links:
WR1 and WR2 Target Points | WR3 and WR4 Target Points
The goal at WR1 is finding a player that has a chance to catch 100+ passes for 1,300+ yards, and 10+ TDs, which lays the foundation of a 300-point Fantasy player in PPR leagues.
WR1 – Tier 1
DeAndre Hopkins, Juju Smith-Schuster, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Odell Beckham
Each one of these options have double-digit TD upside while playing in offenses that should create huge amount of targets leading to impact yards and catches. Many Fantasy owners may overlook Odell Beckham in this grouping, but he has the tools to be the best WR in the game, which will be helped by a new gunslinger QB in Cleveland.
I would be happy with options here assuming Tyreek Hill’s injury is minor.
WR1 – Tier 2
Julio Jones and Antonio Brown
Both of these players are a slight step down for me from the top tier WRs, but their respective career paths and resumes suggests value plays. Jones continues to fall short in touchdowns, which is an area he can’t match the best WRs in the game. A change in play calling and more trust in the red zone by Matt Ryan could lead to a spike in TDs this year. Brown gets a downgrade after the move to Oakland. Did you make Ben Roethlisberger a better player? Or vice versa? I know this for sure, Brown will get open and catch the ball when thrown to him. A top-four Fantasy draft pick should be ecstatic to draft Antonio in the second round in the 2019 Fantasy draft season.
WR1 – Tier 3/ WR2 – Tier 1
Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen
Of these WRs, Allen has the most upside in catches, but he tends to gain short yards per catch while falling in the mid-range in producing TDs. One of the Vikings’ WRs should catch 100+ balls if they play a full season. I’ll give the Diggs the edge in TDs while a like the hands and route running of Thielen better. Cooper has the talent to match the WR1 criteria, but his down games due to a running offense leads to a wide range of outcomes over a long season. Evans has the best history of TDs in this tier while also offering big-play ability. Hilton plays in the right offense, but his lack of upside in TDs does push him to the upper WR2 levels in most Fantasy seasons.
For a wide receiver to rank as a WR2 in PPR leagues, he needs to average about 75 catches for 1,000 yards with about seven TDs. As you can see, the fallout of the WR1 – Tier 3 options all have the resumes to beat the expected stats for a WR2. Therefore, any and all of these options would gain an edge if drafted as a second WR on a Fantasy team.
If a Fantasy team starts with RB/RB and decides to roster a WR1 – Tier 3 option, they are hoping that player shows growth and end up producing WR1 stats for the year.
WR2 – Tier 2
Julian Edelman, Kenny Golladay, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Chris Godwin
Julian Edelman has the best resume at the level, but he does have a thumb injury. Edelman won’t score impact TDs or gains big yards per catch, which makes him boring at times during the year. Kenny Golladay should have a WR2 floor with explosiveness in both TDs and big plays. He has the best chance at this level to push to the WR1 level in 2019. Any (or possibly all) of the Rams’ WRs should finish as WR2s in 2019. Cooper Kupp has the talent to catch 100+ balls with double-digit TDs, but I’m still waiting to see if he’s all the way back from his 2018 knee injury. Chris Godwin shows scoring ability and is also expected to see a bump in chances in Tampa with the Bucs losing two of their top four WRs in the offseason.
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WR2 – Tier 3
Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd, and Jarvis Landry
Last year the Chargers and the Falcons used Mike Williams and Calvin Ridley as WR3s. Both players showed scoring ability. I expect each option to see a nice bump in targets in 2019 while pushing their way to WR2 on their respective rosters. Ridley has a little more flash while Williams is a lock to offer value in TDs. Tyler Lockett has one of the best catch rates in football, but he needs a considerable jump in targets to be trusted as a WR2 this year. In 2018, Tyler scored double-digit TDs while making many long catches. With Doug Baldwin no longer on the roster, Lockett looks poised to push his production even higher.
The injury to A.J. Green does give Tyler Boyd more chances out of the gate this season, which bodes well for him to build on last year. D.J. Moore has the pedigree, but he looks like the bet on the come player in this grouping. Fantasy owners continue to overlook Jarvis Landry as an elite WR. He has 100+ catch upside with sneaky scoring ability. I view him as a complete steal as WR3 in 2019 while expecting to beat the projected WR2 stats at this year.
For a WR to qualify as WR3 in PPR leagues, he’ll have to catch about 60 passes for 800 yards and five TDs. Remember, a Fantasy owner needs to gain edges in multiple positions to win their Fantasy league.
WR3 – Tier 1
Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Robby Anderson, Will Fuller, and Corey Davis
Earlier in the draft season, Alshon Jeffery was a value while getting drafted well after the seventh round. He brings size and big-play ability to the table, but he does have to compete with the TEs on the Eagles roster for catches and TDs. A year removed from a significant knee injury should lead to a rebound in value for Allen Robinson. I like the Bears’ passing game, and Robinson has one season of plus TDs on his resume. Sammy Watkins scored TDs with the Rams in 2017 while playing in the right offense to deliver an impactful this year. Sammy came into the NFL with elite talent, which makes him a value at WR3 in 2019 if he can stay healthy.
Robby Anderson had a slow start to 2018, but his star started to rise later in the season. The addition of Le’Veon Bell and better chemistry with Sam Darnold should lead to a rebound in value this year. Will Fuller has many big games in his short career while offering scoring and big-play ability. His value and upside are tied to his health after suffering a significant knee injury in 2018. Corey Davis has the foundation skill set to be a WR1, but he needs to improve his catch rate while the Titans need to give him more chances. I view him as the best option in this group to be a future WR1 plus Tennessee has a much better passing offense than Fantasy owners expect in 2019.
WR3 – Tier 2
Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Jones, Courtland Sutton, Sterling Shepard, and Dede Westbrook
The Cardinals have two WRs that have a chance to beat my expectations in 2019 if Arizona throws a higher volume of passes. I expect tons of runs from David Johnson and Kyler Murray, but there will be chances in the passing game. I have the Cardinals projected for under 500 passing attempts, which hurts the overall opportunities for their top two WRs. Either of their top two WRs could beat my expectations, but their lower ADP suggests that the Fantasy camps are in tune with my thought process here.
If Sterling Shepard didn’t suffer a thumb injury in late July, he would be my top choice at this level. His foundation skillset points to a volume pass-catcher who can make some big plays along with offering scoring ability.
Marvin Jones looks to be a safe option with a resume support a WR3 type of season. Courtland Sutton struggled with his catch rate last year while showing flashes at times. The change to a dink and dunk QB doesn’t get my juices flowing. Dede Westbrook should add explosiveness to his game in 2019 with Nick Foles starting at QB for Jacksonville. I could see 80+ catches for 1,000+ yards with mid-range TDs.
WR3 – Tier 3
Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Keke Coutee, N’Keal Harry, DeSean Jackson, and Emmanuel Sanders
Coming into his rookie season, I loved what Curtis Samuel brought to the table. Unfortunately, a missed season and minor issues last year led to a slower start to his career than expected. Samuel flashed in 2018 while showing scoring ability. The summer reports have been positive with no injury news. A possible colossal step forward making him an exciting WR4 in most Fantasy drafts in 2019.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to draw raves in the Packers’ training camp plus Aaron Rodgers needs an emerging WR2 in the Packers’ offense.
I don’t have the same confidence at this level for Keke Coutee due to viable WRs on the Texans’ roster in front of him. He played well when given a chance in 2018, but health is also a concern.
The Patriots need someone to step up as their WR, and N’Keal Harry is the player most suited to make a significant step forward in his rookie season. He has the size to score TDs while having the skill set to offer impact catches.
Last year DeSean Jackson had a productive season for the Bucs despite being the fourth WR on their depth chart. He’s developing chemistry with Carson Wentz, which points to a rising draft value going forward.
Emmanuel Sanders would be ranked higher as a WR3 if he was 100 percent recovered from his Achilles injury. His recovery looks to be moving in a positive direction, which will push his draft value in August. His resume suggests that Sanders is undervalued in the early draft season.