Putting For Dough – The Wyndham Championship

Putting for Dough – PGA DFS

By:  Mark Farris

Tournament: Wyndham Championship               

Course: Sedgefield CC-Ross Course (Par 70 – 7,124 Yards)

Location: Greensboro, NC

Defending Champion: Brandt Snedeker

 

Comparable Tournaments:  AT&T Byron Nelson (Trinity Forest), Desert Classic (Stadium Course), Waste Management (TPC Scottsdale), The Masters 

 

Combine this information with my partner, Alex White’s, information.  We take slightly different perspectives in our analysis but are on a lot of the same guys each week.  Hopefully, this gives you validation.

NOTE:  No matter what the format of my article, I am ALWAYS available on Slack Chat!  You can discuss your ideas/issues with everyone in the #pga-dfs channel or you can DM me on there if you have an idea you really want to keep to yourself, but need someone to bounce it off of!!  I promise, I won’t tell!!! …… as long as you let me use it!  LMAO!

Remember the Rules of playing DFS:

• You will probably lose more weeks than you win.
• Play Single-Entry (S/E), S/E Double-Ups and 50/50s as a hedge against the GPPs you want/like to play.
• If you play GPPs, look for Single-Entry contests first. After that, play the ones that allow five (5) entries or less.  The only exception I have to my rule is that I play the $1 WTA each week that allows 20 entries.  I don’t always play the maximum but I use it to help me set the 10-20 lineups I like to set each week.  I am NOT a Mega-Multi Entry player!
• In PGA-DFS, DO NOT get overly excited by your position after Round 1 (Thursday).

 

 

Course Background

This course is a Par 70 with a smaller-than-average greens that usually play firm and fast.  However, statistically the Par 3s and Par 5s are some of the easiest on Tour.  The fairways are narrow with difficult bunkers, but not much else is there to scare these guys.  There are ZERO water hazards.

In the last 5 years the winning score has ranged from -17 (2014 & 2015) to -21 (2018).  The tournament was not played in 2017 due to flooding.  Although I’m confused on that because The Golf Channel site shows Henrik Stenson winning at -22 in that year but the PGA Tour site shows no results.  So….I have neither the time nor technical search skills to validate this so take that for what it’s worth.

The greens are Bermuda grass and are typically fast.  As I mentioned, in Tour standards, they are smaller-than-average, but have few defenses besides that…..thus, the low scores.

Although I don’t typically pay much attention to tee times, for those of you that like to play PGA-DFS and gain a possible advantage, check the weather.  If a player has a morning tee time on Thursday, they have an afternoon tee time on Friday.  So, in short, tee times are AM-PM or PM-AM.  So, if winds or other weather is predicted to happen at opposite times of the day (i.e. not in the morning both days or in the afternoon both days), you can “stack” tee times.  You can find the tee times on www.pgatour.com

 

TIER ANALYSIS

My “tier analysis” will fluctuate from week-to-week due to the pricing structure on DraftKings.

This is a weaker-than-average field.  No offense to any of these guys, but when Webb Simpson is your highest price golfer, the “big dogs” are preparing for the FedEx Cup playoffs to begin.  No disrespect meant whatsoever toward Webb since I know for a fact I couldn’t come close to beating him if he let me play from the ladies tees!

$9,000 and above

Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Matthew Wolff –All three of these guys will be popular this week – at least I think so – for two reasons:  (1) this is a weak field and (2) they are the “new flavors of ice cream” in the supermarket.  Can all three of these guys put up a win?  ABSOLUTELY!  Are they worth $10,400; $9,500; and $9,400 respectively?  Uhm….I’m not sure about that.  Snedeker, Casey Reed and Horschel are all priced between these guys and are much more experienced and have played here.  That being said, I GUARANTEE I will sprinkle all three of these guys in a lineup somewhere!  TEASER:  I have another “new” guy I like better at a much better “value”!

 

Favorite(s) @ $10,000 +:                  Webb Simpson & Hideki Matsuyama

Favorite @ $9,000 – $9,900:             Chez Ravie, Paul Casey & Patrick Reed

Surprise in this Tier:                        Joaquin Niemann 

Comeback Kid:                                 Jordan Spieth  (I think this is his week)

 

$7,500 to $8,900

FAVORITES:                                   Alexander Noren ($8,800), Lucas Glover ($8,700), Sungjae Im ($8,300), Scott Piercy ($8,100) & Martin Kaymer ($8,600)

VALUES:                                          Russell Henley ($7,800), Doc Redman ($7,600) & Jason Dufner ($7,500)

LONGSHOTS:                                  Bill Haas – This guy has vanished, but loves this course.

FADES:                                             Brian Harman – Has never played well here

 

$6,000 to $7,400

FAVORITES:                                   Wyndham Clark ($7,300), J.T. Poston ($7,300), Zach Johnson ($7,200), and Roger Sloan ($7,100)

VALUES:                                          Hank Lebioda ($6,300), Michael Thompson ($6,400), and Roberto Castro ($6,500)

LONGSHOTS:                                  HERE IT IS!!! —–> Charlie Danielson ($6,100)

FADES:                                             Personally, I’m not playing anyone not mentioned in this range above.

 

MODEL APPROACH

If I use the Modeling Tool that I subscribe to, using the following settings:

Current Form 50%, Key Stats 30%, & Course History 20%

Key Stat Breakout –

                        SGT2G           10% (Tee-to-Green)

                        SGOTT          10% (Off-the-Tee)

                        SGAPP           15%  (Approach)

                        SGATG          10% (Around-the-Green)

                        SGP                10%  (Putting)

                        DA                  10%  (Driving Accuracy)

                        P175-200        10%  (Approaches 175-200 yards)

                        PAR4              10%  (Par 4 Scoring)

                        BOB%            10%  (Birdies or Better %)

                        SCRAM           5%  (Scrambling)

                                   

 

The Top 15 are (Favorites = **):

1. Webb Simpson **
2. Lucas Glover **
3. Collin Morikawa ** (WIN HANGOVER!!)
4. Billy Horschel **
5. Paul Casey
6. Hideki Matsuyama**
7. Rory Sabbatini
8. Patrick Reed **
9. Scott Piercy
10. Brandt Snedeker **
11. Joaquin Niemann
12. Cameron Smith
13. Charlie Danielson **
14. Jordan Spieth **
15. Martin Kaymer

 

Guys just outside that I like:

1. Matthew Wolff
2. Sungjae Im
3. Doc Redman

 

Top 10 (100% Course History):

1. Webb Simpson
2. Brandt Snedeker
3. Johnson Wagner
4. Harris English
5. Billy Horschel
6. Bill Haas
7. Ryan Armour
8. Jonathan Byrd
9. Roberto Castro
10. Jason Dufner

 

Top 15 (100% Current Form):  If you recall, this is my favorite statistic!           

1. Webb Simpson
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Billy Horschel
5. Patrick Reed
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Doc Redman
8. Lucas Glover
9. Rory Sabbatini
10. Charlie Danielson
11. Alexander Noren
12. Chez Reavie
13. Paul Casey
14. Cameron Smith
15. Martin Kaymer

 

“GUT” PLAYS

DEEP DIVE(S):                    Charlie Danielson                                                

Gut Feeling Winner:            Hideki Matsuyama

2^nd Choice:                             Alexander Noren

Longshot Winner(s) (below $8,000):           Wyndham Clark

JOIN Slack Chat!  The ScoutArmy is here to help!

 

Remember, it’s called GOLF because all of the other 4-letter words were taken!  The variance is frustrating and Alex and I are just trying to help you through the ROUGH!