O.J. Howard was on his way to a breakout season last year before a right foot and ankle injury cut his season short. The Tampa Bay tight end was sixth in points per game among tight ends last season in PPR formats.
Can Howard take the next step and break into the elite tight end tier? The skill set is there for Howard to do it and it’s a question of getting enough volume.
The Buccaneers should be passing a lot again. They ranked fourth in passing attempts last season. The defense is terrible and they should be playing from behind consistently. Many targets opened up with the departure of DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries, who totaled 179 targets. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will get a bulk of the targets and Howard has tight end Cameron Brate cutting into some of his targets, but Howard is clearly the better player.
There’s a good chance Howard can reach 100 targets. Howard played in ten games last season and caught 34 of 48 passes (70.8 percent catch rate) for 565 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged 16.6 yards per catch and 11.8 yards per target. If he played 16 games, he was on a pace to finish with 904 yards and eight touchdowns. Howard reached double-digit points in PPR formats in seven of his ten games.
The 19th overall pick in the 2017 draft led tight ends in average depth of target last season and new coach Bruce Arians loves to push the ball downfield as does quarterback Jameis Winston. Even if Howard isn’t as efficient, he will definitely get more volume.
Howard is very athletic at 6-foot-6 and 251 pounds. He has missed eight games in his first two seasons due to right foot and ankle injuries. Howard has yet to put up huge numbers due to volume. He had a 7.4 percent target share as a rookie and 11.7 percent last season.
I shied away from Howard last season because I didn’t see where the targets were coming from. The depth chart has changed it’s a major positive for Howard. Jackson and Humphries were good options that were going to get targets. Now, the Buccaneers have Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson as the receivers behind Evans and Godwin and they shouldn’t command too many targets.
I know some of you are reading this and saying what about Arians and his penchant for not using tight ends? A big part of is the lack of talent he’s had at tight end. Heath Miller had some good seasons under Arians in Pittsburgh, so Arians will find a way to utilize a great talent.
Howard has an ADP of 63 in the FFWC with an early pick of 48 and a late of 80. He is the fourth tight end off the board, just ahead of Hunter Henry at 66.
While the injuries are a concern, Howard has immense upside. He should be the third target in a pass-heavy offense. If everything break right, Howard could catch 70 passes with a shot at 1,000 yards receiving and double-digit touchdowns. Howard will have a breakout season and is targeting in drafts.
