New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the next stop on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and if you want to cash in playing NASCAR DFS at Fanduel this weekend, you will need a couple of things. First, you will have to hit on your dominators when building your lineups. Second, you will need the restarts to play out in your favor.
New Hampshire is one-mile oval with little banking, and as is the case with a lot of flat tracks, passing can be difficult. Fast cars starting towards the front can dominate for long stretches, and in recent years, it has been common for two drivers to combine to lead a huge percentage of the laps.
In fact, you can pretty much count on one driver topping 100 laps led Sunday, and there is a good chance that two drivers will accomplish the feat. Even in Fanduel’s scoring, laps led points are going to carry some serious weight this weekend. As I said in the opening paragraph, make sure you nail your dominators.
As for those restarts I mentioned, luck is going to play a bit of a factor. Drivers restarting in the bottom groove have been at a huge disadvantage at New Hampshire recently. NASCAR is attempting to help measures by applying PJ1 to the bottom lane, but it is common for drivers starting on the inside to routinely give up a spot or two.
This pattern isn’t the end of the world unless there are multiple cautions in the closing laps. When this happens, you have drivers gaining and losing a decent amount of spots based almost entirely on luck of the draw with where they restart. In Fanduel’s scoring, every spot counts, so your fortunes can change in a hurry.
In order to offset this uncertainty, I like to build some place differential points into my lineup whenever possible. It isn’t a one-for-one point swap, but if my drivers have more spots to gain from the start, it likely lessens the blow of a late-race restart slide a bit. On the flip side, it also boosts my score even further if my drivers benefit from a series of late restarts.
Make sure to check back after qualifying for updated picks and lineup strategies for Sunday’s Foxwoods Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Until then, I have highlighted the drivers who have caught my eye based on past performance and the pricing at Fanduel this weekend.
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Must-Own Drivers
Kyle Busch ($14,500)
Busch checks every box you could ask for when looking for an anchor for your DFS lineups. He has a series-best eight Top 10s in the last 10 races at New Hampshire, winning twice and finishing third or better six times. Busch had led 60-plus laps five times in that same span, leading more than 90 laps in three of the last five races here. Look for Busch to lead a chunk of laps and contend for another win.
Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000)
The four straight Top 10s and three straight Top 5s at New Hampshire are nice, but his ability to lead a ton of laps at the track are what give Truex a huge ceiling this weekend. He has topped 80 laps led in each of the last five races here, and he has led more than 100 laps four times in that stretch.
Difference Makers and Value Plays
Kevin Harvick ($12,500)
Harvick remains winless in 2019, but he has still provided plenty of strong finishes, and I expect more of the same this weekend at New Hampshire. After all, he won this race a year ago, and his six Top 5s in the last eight races at the track are the most in the series.
Brad Keselowski ($12,000)
He has shown the ideal blend of consistency and upside that you want in Fanduel’s scoring. Keselowski has cracked the Top 15 in 13 of the last 14 races at New Hampshire, finishing sixth or better eight times and leading laps in 11 of those starts. At worst, he should finish inside the Top 10, and there is a good chance he leads some laps and ends up battling for the win.
Chase Elliott ($10,700)
Elliott has been a in a bit of a slump in recent weeks, and it has caused his price tag to dip below $11,000. However, flat tracks have been one of his specialties, so this could be a perfect opportunity to buy low heading to New Hampshire. Elliott has finished in the Top 15 in four straight starts here, and he led 23 laps and finished fifth in last year’s race. Elliott could be a cheaper alternative to build around this weekend or at least a pivot to one of the top options.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,600)
He probably isn’t going to win Sunday, but Johnson has been one of the most reliable performers at New Hampshire, and his price tag won’t break the bank. He has cracked the Top 15 in the last six races here, and he has six Top 10s in his last 10 starts. Throw in a little place differential upside, and Johnson will become an excellent cash game option.
Clint Bowyer ($9,400)
Bowyer is usually at his best at short tracks and flat tracks, and he is a former winner at New Hampshire. He finished seventh in both races here in 2017, gaining at least nine spots in both starts. Bowyer was running in the Top 10 again in last year’s race when he was caught up in a wreck. For a midrange price, he offers a solid shot at a Top 10 with Top 5 potential.
Aric Almirola ($8,600)
This guy just might be the steal of the weekend. Almirola had the car to beat on long runs at New Hampshire last year, and he ended up third after leading 42 laps. At this price, the Top 5 upside alone makes him worth a look, and he may even be able to lead some laps.
William Byron ($8,200)
The sample size is only one race, but Byron managed a 14th-place finish in his New Hampshire debut last season. He’s been a solid performer at flat tracks in general, and his overall performance has taken a sizeable leap forward in 2019. After finishing in the Top 15 here last year, I don’t think a Top 10 run is out of the question this weekend. Byron offers decent upside for a great price.
Sleeper Special
Ty Dillon ($5,000)
His ceiling is limited, but Dillon has managed steady results at New Hampshire. He has a 20.3 average finish in three starts, finishing with a positive place differential each time and gaining at least eight spots twice. Dillon has also completed 99.7 percent of the laps in those races. As long as he starts outside the Top 25, he should be a safe option for freeing up a chunk of cap space.
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