Preseason Pro: The top ranked players in the world each reveal their No. 1 sleeper, bust, breakout, comeback and stash & cash player of the year!
Dr. Roto | Shawn Childs | Brad Kruse | Bill Enright | Kimra Schleicher | Mark Deming | Adam Ronis | Scott Atkins | Jim Day | Darren Summer
Scott Atkins’ Preseason Pro Picks
Sleeper: WR Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
(ADP: 69 – FFWC ADP: 73)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: WRs typically break out in their third year. I’ll be honest: I jumped the gun with Davis last season. I thought he would defy the odds and become one of those receivers that show their stuff in the 2nd year and I believe my exact phrase was, “Davis will be one of those receivers we’ll all be drafting in the second round next season.” Okay, so that didn’t happen. What did happen is he has set the stage for a big third season. Don’t be the owner who is asleep at the wheel! Let’s compare Davis to a more popular third-year receiver who’s being drafted much, much earlier:
Bucs WR Chris Godwin
2017 – 34 rec | 2018 – 59 rec | 7 TDs | ADP: 30 | Draft Range: 24/38
Titans WR Corey Davis
2017 – 43 rec | 2018 – 65 rec | 4 TDs | ADP: 72 | Draft Range: 67/79
Looking at Shawn Childs Projections, Davis will command around 21% of the Titans completions vs. Godwin’s 20%. The only caveat is Mariota and Shawn seems to project Mariota with his best season to date: 3,800 yards and 27 TDs vs. Winston’s 4,300 yards and 27 TDs. Everyone knows we like Godwin but I’ll say this right now. Corey Davis will have a good shot to outperform Chris Godwin in 2019.
Everyone is consumed with the bad taste in their mouth from last season, but was it really so bad? Davis’ ADP was 61 come draft day last season, and because he didn’t rocket ship in year two, he drops a full round to 72 in 2019. The return of Delanie Walker along with the additions of rookie AJ Brown and free agent Adam Humphries should take the pressure off Davis and allow him to fully mature into his WR1 role. He’s looked like Mariota’s reliable first target so far this preseason. Davis is now the definition of a sleeper. This smells like an incredible value-opportunity. Get out the net and snag Corey Davis in Round 6.
Bust: RB David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
(ADP 8 – FFWC ADP 8)
This is easy for me as I will have ZERO shares of David Johnson this year. Look, like you I’ll probably never forget his 2016 season, three years ago. This was the year David Johnson led all running backs with 293 carries for 1239 yards, 80 receptions for 879 yards and 20 TDs. What an incredible stat line, and he did it despite averaging a measly 4.2 yards per carry. I remember many games where in the second half, Johnson was laying an egg, yet somehow he’d pull out a few dumpers and a couple of 1-yard touchdowns in garbage time. I call those “cheapies.” Yes, he pulled off an RB9 season last year, somehow, someway. Most of those points came from his 50 receptions on 76 targets, which by the way was the worst catch rate of any of the top 20 backs last season. Now the new offense comes to town and a highly-touted rookie with one year of full-time experience who threw 377 times in 2018 yet only dumped to the running backs twenty-five times total. I don’t like it. Johnson’s never been an efficient back, as evidenced by his pathetically low 3.6 yards per carry (worst of all the top 25 backs) despite some big runs. By now you should see that this situation isn’t all roses. Johnson needs that 60-70 catches to be worth this spot at 8th pick overall, and let’s be clear, your options in the first round of your fantasy draft, are all superb players. I would much rather take an elite wide receiver like DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams, Michael Thomas or Julio Jones. His RB9 finish last year netted him 250 fantasy points, which is a Top 15 WR season in today’s NFL. No way am I spending my first-round pick on David Johnson. If he falls to the second round after guys like ODB and JuJu are off the board, who will easily eclipse that mark, then I’ll think about it, but that likely won’t happen, so the bottom line is that DAVID JOHNSON IS AN EASY FADE for me in 2019 and he should be for you too.
Breakout: WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
(ADP 62 – FFWC ADP 49)
This was tough because I have two players I absolutely love in the 4th/5th round range, but I’ll go with the one with the higher floor and ceiling in 2019. Here’s a player where pedigree + talent + opportunity are colliding at just the right time. I know touchdowns are volatile, but in 2019, if Mike Williams stays healthy, I promise you he presents a serious threat to score double-digit Touchdowns, actually let’s shoot for 12+. Tyrell Williams kept Williams off the field for the most part in 2018 and relegated him to mostly 3 WR sets, which will push Williams snap rate in 2019 up from 62% to closer to 80%, many of which will be 2WR sets. Factor in the what looks like a real possibility that Melvin Gordon isn’t on the field, that number goes up along with everything else. In 2018 with Gordon off the field, Williams saw increases to Yards per attempt from Rivers (7.7 > 8.5), Target Share (13% > 14.6%) and Redzone Target Share (12.8 to a whopping 23.7%). Shawn’s projecting 70+ catches for over 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs. That’s a Top 15 season, for a receiver who is currently the 24th off the board. All of this leads me to say with confidence that Mike Williams should be your fifth-round selection. –In case you were wondering, my other favorite breakout is DJ Moore. Roll the tape! This video is all the evidence you need.
PLAY AGAINST THE BEST WITH FULLTIME FANTASY! | Odds
Comeback: RB Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints
(ADP 117 – FFWC ADP 81)
Here’s your seventh-round selection to take to the bank. In 2018, the Saints finished sixth overall in rushing yards averaging 126 yards per game, first overall in Touchdowns (26) and 5th overall in carries (29.4 per game). A lot of this was due clearly to Alvin Kamara’s wizardry on the field, but Mark Ingram, who was suspended the first four games of the season, certainly helped, chipping in 138 carries, seven TDs, and 21 receptions. If I’m the Saints, I want to get back to the Thunder and lightning backfield they had in 2017 where the carries were split more evenly between the two bell cows. Enter free agent Latavius Murray. 2016 in Oakland was the last time Murray finished in the top 20 RBs, (14th) and the previous two seasons in Minnesota, he finished RB24 and RB37, but a change of scenery is everything. He’s a steal at his current ADP of 74 and in some drafts is even slipping to the eighth round. Shawn Childs projects for 200 carries and 37 receptions. If that happens, and it should, Latavius is a no-brainer top 15 running back, and if an injury were to occur to Kamara, he could make a case for top 10 production while he’s out. People, you’re drafting him right now at RB31. Hello? Bueller? Bueller? New Orleans will rush the ball 480 times this season and has another good shot at 20 rushing TDs. This ADP is laughable, and you only have yourself to blame if you let Latavius slip past the seventh round. If you’re RB needy through the first five rounds, you have my permission to take him as high as the sixth round. I expect his stock to rise over the next two weeks as the masses wake up to Murray’s potential to bounce back in a big way in New Orleans.
Stash & Cash: RB Ito Smith, Atlanta Falcons
(ADP: 160 – FFWC ADP: 153)
Judge Ito Smith. Here’s your guy. No love for the RB2 in Atlanta? Answer me this question. Where was the RB2 in Atlanta being drafted last year? The only thing in front of him is a player who can’t stay on the field and has suffered multiple concussions. (three since 2015) If and when Freeman gets hit to the head, he’s out for a minimum three games. Not to mention a sports hernia from last year. Look, the eye test probably told you that Ito was a pretty significant downgrade from Tevin Coleman, but the cupboard is bare after Freeman. Court is in session with Judge Ito! — Okay look, if you absolutely hate this pick, grab Jets TE Chris Herndon. He’s going to BEAST when he comes back from suspension.
