Preseason Pro: The top ranked players in the world each reveal their No. 1 sleeper, bust, breakout, comeback and stash & cash player of the year!
Dr. Roto | Shawn Childs | Brad Kruse | Bill Enright | Kimra Schleicher | Mark Deming | Adam Ronis | Scott Atkins | Jim Day | Darren Summer
Sleeper: RB Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints
Here we are in 2019 and I’m calling a six-year veteran on his third team in four years a sleeper. Murray often gets mocked for his upright running style and failure to break tackles despite his big frame.
I’m all opportunity & offensive schemes. Murray’s opportunity hasn’t been this good since his only 1,000-yard season (2015). The offensive scheme is the best of his career (New Orleans’ collective backfield has produced Top 3 fantasy points every year since 2014). Signed by the Saints to a four-year, $14.4 million contract, Murray will slip right into the vacancy left by Mark Ingram, who finished in the Top 12 for all fantasy running backs in three of the last four years. The uninformed public thinks of the Saints as a pass-heavy team, but the fact is they ran the ball 442 times in 2018, 7th-most in the NFL. Even with Alvin Kamara leading this squad, Murray has excellent value in the 7th round as the Saints’ power back.
Bust: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
Am I really about to hate on the WR2 on the NFL’s best offense? Yes, I am. For starters, while Watkins may be the Chiefs’ WR2 in name, he’s certainly not WR2 in targets. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will both get twice as many targets as Watkins. Heck, even Damien Williams may be ahead of Watkins on Patrick Mahomes’ target pecking order. Then there’s Watkins injury history. He hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2014. He missed six games in 2018 for the same foot/ankle injury that has seemingly plagued him throughout his career. I simply can’t justify drafting a five-year veteran that hasn’t topped 41 catches or 600 yards in the last three years, and when considering his 6th-round ADP, it makes me remove Watkins entirely off my board.
Breakout: RB Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
Since the dawn of time, running backs in Andy Reid’s offense produce top tier stats in the PPR format and with Damien Williams earning the Chief’s lead back role, the sixth year back with minimal tread on his tires will be an absolute stud in 2019. When taking over the Kansas City backfield in 2018 (Weeks 13-16) he caught more passes, had more receiving yards, and more receiving TDs than Saquon Barkley and more rushing yards than Alvin Kamara, and ranked 5th for all RBs in fantasy points.
Just how good have running backs in Andy Reid’s system been in the PPR format? Even with just 11 games in 2018, Kareem Hunt finished as RB11. He finished Number 4 in 2017. Spencer Ware finished RB16 in just 14 games in 2016. Jamaal Charles dominated as a Top 10 RB in 2014 and the top running back in 2013. And when Reid coached the Eagles, Shady McCoy had top 3 finishes in 2010 and 2011 and finished as a Top 15 RB in just 12 games in 2012. Go back even farther when Brian Westbrook dominated year in and year out from 2004-2008. Fact is, running backs in Reid System have finished in the top 15 every year but two since 2004 and in eight of those seasons, his starting back finished in the top 3. So not only are we talking about a very safe floor but we are talking about immense, top 3 upside as well.
PLAY AGAINST THE BEST WITH FULLTIME FANTASY! | Odds
Comeback: RB Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
It’s not like Penny was out of football like Le’Veon Bell in 2018 or missed the season due to injury like Derrius Guice, but considering he was a 1st round pick a year ago and had the hype that comes along with it, only to disappoint fantasy owners, I’m calling him a comeback player for 2019. With just 85 carries in 2018, Penny was third in line for carries in Seattle’s backfield behind Chris Carson and Mike Davis. Heading into 2019, Davis is now in Chicago, and Carson had a knee scope this offseason on the same knee that forced him to miss two games a year ago. The Seahawks were the NFL’s run heaviest teams in 2018, by a wide margin, calling 537 rushing plays. The next closest team was Baltimore with 495 (the Packers ran the ball a league-low 334 times, just for some perspective). Penny provides a speedy punch to the Seahawks power rushing attack, and even if Carson is healthy, Penny will have standalone value and enormous potential if Carson does indeed miss action. Coming off the board in the 7th round, I’d much prefer to set my sights on Penny compared to other RBs with similar ADP like Derrius Guice and Lamar Miller.
Stash & Cash: RB Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams
Fortunate to be on one of the most explosive offenses in the entire NFL, Brown hasn’t had much opportunity to shine in LA thanks to the dominance of Todd Gurley. But now that Gurley is dealing with knee issues and considering the team hasn’t been shy about letting the media and fans know the plan is to dial back the All-Pro’s workload, opens the door for an expanded role for Brown. With rookie, third-round pick Darrell Henderson getting a lot of hype this offseason, Brown seems to be the forgotten man. At least that’s the public perception. But the fact is, the Rams re-signed Brown to a two-year contract after the Lions signed the restricted free agent running back to their offer sheet. It’s pretty clear the Rams wanted, and perhaps even needed, Brown to stick around for the 2019 season. Brown is an excellent handcuff for any Gurley owner and won’t cost a high pick like Henderson. Will Brown have standalone value if Gurley is healthy? Not likely. But locking up that Los Angeles Rams backfield is a shrewd move for any Fantasy Football veteran, especially when we keep in mind CJ Anderson’s incredible run while filling in for Gurley at the end of the 2018 regular season.
