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The first question a Fantasy owner must answer when building his rosters for the DraftKings Millionaire Maker for the Masters is the value/success of Jordan Spieth. His history at Augusta in undeniable, but his form is nowhere near his success from 2014 to 2017 when he won over $27 million and three top 10s on the PGA money list (1st, 9th, and 2nd). Either he’s a huge trap or great value. Here’s my 2019 write-up for Spieth for the Masters:
Spieth has turned from a top Master contender to a pretender in 2019. In his seven tournaments this year, he placed 35th, 45th, 51st, and 54th with two MCs and a poor showing in the WGC match play event (1-1-1). Jordan continues to show magic at the Masters, but he’ll be a much lower percentage own this year. In his five chances at the Masters, he has a win, two 2nds, a third, and one 11th place finish while being 39 strokes under par over 20 rounds. Spieth ranks 62nd in driving distance (297.9) with huge problems finding the fairway (48.2 percent – 213th). His putter continues to trail his early career success (81st in strokes-gained putting [0.188]) leading to a low ranking in his birdie-to-bogey ratio (1.38 – 108th). Jordan has been the best golfer at the Masters over the last five years, and he should have two wins if he didn’t blow up on one hole in 2016. Based on form, I’d stay clear of Spieth this season at Augusta. His salary ($8,900), when considering his price point in 2016 ($12,300), 2017 ($11,500), and 2018 ($10,400) does create some intrigue if the smell of the Georgia peaches clears his woozy driver.
Over his last 18 rounds of strokes play, Jordan has eight rounds in the 60s. Unfortunately, when he starts to press and lose the direction of his driver, Spieth has five disaster rounds over this stretch (74, 75, 81, 75, and 76).
To win a million dollars with a short stack, a Fantasy owner has to take a position on a few players. I’m buying Jordan’s history while being drawn to his favorable salary. I hope that he’ll be a lower percentage own based on his current form.
The first piece to my DK puzzle: Jordan Spieth ($8,900)
At the back-end of the player pool, I’ve narrowed down the options that I believe can finish inside the top 20 to five players while settling in on two key players (Charles Howell – $7,000 and Kevin Kisner – $6,700). Of the two, Kisner is the stronger play. Here’s a look at both players profile:
Charles Howell –
Howell will make his ninth appearance at Augusta but his first in seven seasons. He made the cut five times with his best finish coming in 2012 (19th). Over 26 rounds at the Masters, Charles is 51 strokes over par with most of the damage arising in 2006 (+20 over two rounds). Howell picked up a win in November (RSM Classic) plus two other top 10s while making the cut in his last nine tournaments. Howell drives the ball well (300.0 – 46th) with reasonable success (64.7 percent on the short grass – 64th). When adding strength in his putter (17th in SGP – 0.680) and the second-best birdie-to-bogey ratio (2.37) in 2019, Charles has the makings of being a sweet sleeper. If you’re Thurston for an island play, look no further than Howell in your millionaire dreams.
Over the last decade, Howell has only played at the Masters once (2012 – 19th) while never ranking inside of the top 35 players in any season in winnings. Charles was born in Augusta in 1979, which makes him an interesting story in 2019. His game looks to be the best of his career over the last 4+ months pushing him to 6th in earnings ($2,536,224) this season.
Kevin Kisner –
Based on World Ranking (25), Kevin looks to be undervalued in salary ($6,700) at DraftKings at the Masters. He won the WGC match play event in late Match (2nd place in 2018), which came after a run six straight finishes in the 20s (26th, 28th, 27th, 23rd, 22nd, and 24th). Over his 32 rounds of stroke play this year, Kisner is 41 under par. He attended the University of Georgia, so there are some natural ties to this event. In his three trips to the Masters, Kisner finished 37th (+9), 43rd (+8), and 28th (E). His swing doesn’t have an edge in driving distance (286.8 – 160th) while his accuracy is a plus (67.7 – 23rd). His putting (36th in SGP – 0.429) grades well while making his fair share of birdies (151) compared to bogeys (93). Playing well, which points to his best finish ever at this event. I’ll pencil him as a top 20 option, which works well at this price point.
When filling out the back-end of a golf team in the daily games, Fantasy owners need to identify value and upside. Kisner fits that mold. He’s in top form while needing to only slightly improve on his resume at the Masters (best finish 28th). The first order of business at this level in salary ($6,700) is making sure that the selected player plays on the weekend. Kevin is 3-for-3 in cuts made at Augusta, which is a key drawing point for me in 2019.
Therefore, the core of my rosters will have Spieth, Howell, and Kisner ($22,600 of my $50,000 in salary). If all players make the cut and I hit on the star options at the front of my teams, I’ll have an excellent shot at cashing at DraftKings. To win the overall prize, a Fantasy owner will need to have the winner plus two to three more options that finish in the top 5. All six golfers will need to place in the top 15 places.
With limited tickets, I’m going to use these five players to lead my rosters:
- Rory McIlroy
- Dustin Johnson
- Justin Rose
- Tiger Woods
- Justin Thomas
My top two choices to win the Masters in 2019 are McIlroy and Thomas.
The second tier options to finish in the top ten are:
- Jon Rahm
- Rickie Fowler
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Jason Day
- Paul Casey
Based on my team structure, it would be challenging to roster a second top tier player with a salary of over $9,300 without gambling on a third low-end option.
At the mid-tier level, there are my top five options:
- Xander Schauffele
- Tony Finau
- Matt Kuchar
- Marc Leishman
- Sergio Garcia
Here are three more viable swings at the back-end of the salary pool:
- Charley Hoffman
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat
- Si Woo Kim
The only Hail Mary option with a low salary is Lucas Bjerregaard ($6,400)
All players listed above have player write-ups at ScoutFantasySports.com plus the majority of playable options. One of my strength in Fantasy sports is eliminating players with downside and risk, which is easy to see in the highlighted color codes in the 2019 Master Cheatsheet.
My top three avoids this year are:
- Brooks Koepka
- Francesco Molinari
- Patrick Reed
