FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)
DeAndre Hopkins (DK – $8,600/FD – $8,900): Hopkins finally delivered an impact game (10/170/2) after four steady outings (5/56/1, 5/74, 7/91, and 4/36/1). Unfortunately, he did suffer an ankle injury late in last week’s game that may be a factor on Sunday. DeAndre played great last year (94/1321/11), but he doesn’t have the same electric feel despite only needing two catches for 57 yards and two TDs to match last year’s stats. In 2017, Hopkins averaged 11.6 targets per game compared to 9.6 this season. The Eagles allow the second most Fantasy point to WRs (180/2351/11 on 28- targets) with disaster risk in three games (TB – 20/276/3, NO – 18/285/3, and DAL – 17/268/3). Philly lost their two starting CBs a couple of week’s ago inviting failure to WRs. If Houston can pass block and DeAndre doesn’t have a problem with his ankle, Hopkins should be in line for another big day.
Davante Adams (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,500): Adams owners get a reprieve this week with Aaron Rodgers expected to play. Davante is the highest scoring WR in PPR leagues (100/1315/12) while averaging 10.8 targets per game. He has over 100 yards receiving in five of his last ten games with seven catches or more in nine games. The Jets rank 30th against WRs (205/2745/15 on 328 targets) with eight teams gaining over 200 yards from their WRs, which includes four of their last five contests. None of the Jets’ CBs will have an edge over him while expecting a minimum of one TD. Even with 25 Fantasy points, he may not match the elite RBs in Week 16. I like the upside of his matchup and expect Aaron Rodgers to make sure he finishes as the top WR in the land in 2018.
Amari Cooper (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,000): After a great three-game run (8/180/2, 8/76, and 10/217/3), Cooper struggled to get open last week vs. the Colts. He caught four of his seven targets for 32 yards sliding him to 17th in WR scoring in PPR leagues. In his seven games, Amari caught 44 passes for 674 yards and six TDs on 60 targets. The Bucs allow the fourth-most Fantasy points to WRs (184/2228/19 on 246 targets) while showing improvement against WRs over his last seven games (8/93/1, 11/113/1, 8/115/1, 8/131/1, 13/186/1, 14/139, and 7/72). Cooper’s success at home (31/531/6) with Dallas paints an exciting picture. CB Brent Grimes allows a high catch rate with minimal TDs, but he lines up on one side of the field on most plays giving the Cowboys a chance to get Amari in many favorable situations vs. weaker Cbs.
T.Y. Hilton (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,700): Over the last five games, Hilton has 38 catches for 641 yards and two TDs on 52 targets with two impact games (9/155/2 and 9/199). He averaged 10.4 targets over this span with four games with seven catches or more. The Giants are 7th in WR defense (147/2105/10 on 246 targets) with four teams gaining over 200 yards (HOU – 13/225/1, PHI – 14/202/2, ATL – 21/255/1, and TB – 16/268/2) at the WR position. CB Janoris Jenkins will give up plenty of yards, TDs, and big plays shining a bright light for Andrew Luck to find him in the passing game. An excellent chance at 100+ yards with a TD.
MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)
Odell Beckham (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,000): After missing two games with a quad issue, Beckham was expected to play on Sunday. He missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, which suggests another missed game this week. Over the last four games played, Beckham only has 16 catches for 267 yards with a poor catch rate (48.5), but he did score four TDs. In his first eight games, Odell gained over 100 yards in five games with six games with seven catches or more. The Colts pushed their way to fifth in WR defense (153/1785/13 on 228 targets) after holding their last three opponents to short passing yards (8/81, 11/97/1, and 10/97) at the WR position. Need more info, but the stats suggest fade even if he crawls on the field.
Stefon Diggs (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,300): Diggs faded in his last three games (5/49, 4/76, and 4/49/1) while receiving 19 targets. Over his previous nine games, Stefon caught 76 of his 108 targets for 747 yards and five TDs leading to four strong games (9/128/2, 11/123, 10/119/1, and 13/126/1). He’s expected to face CB Darius Slay on most plays, which will slow him down. In their previous matchup against the Lions, Diggs missed the game. Overpriced for me based on his matchup plus Minnesota will try to lean on the run game again in Week 16.
Mike Evans (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,200): Over his last six starts, Evans has four catches or fewer in four games while scoring only two TDs over his last 11 games. Last week he did make a couple of big plays, which led to his seventh game with over 100 yards receiving. His value tends to be similar on the road (34/700/3) and at home (40/628/2). The Cowboys have the second best WR defense (146/1899/10 on 221 targets) in the NFL with no team scoring more than one TD from WRs over the last ten games. Ideally, Tampa will try to get Evans matched up with CB Chidobe Awuzie on most plays. His overall matchup suggests avoiding while his CB/WR gives him a chance to surprise if Jameis Winston has enough time to throw. Against the grain play.
Brandin Cooks (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,400): After gaining over 100 yards in three straight games (6/114/1, 10/100, and 8/107), Cooks struggled in his last three starts (4/62, 3/22, and 6/59). Brandin only has three TDs in 2018 with none coming in the last five games. He played well in Week 2 against Arizona (7/159) with a nice game against the Vikings (7/116/1). The Cardinals should shift CB Patrick Peterson more his way leading to another shallow game by Cooks. Tough call while still having the wheel to make big plays in the passing game.
Kenny Golladay (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100): Fantasy owners were scared to death last week of Golladay after two short games (3/50 and 2/5) and a date with top CB Tre’Davious White. The Lions coaching staff shifted Kenny to the slot on most plays creating a winnable edge. He finished with seven catches for 146 yards on eight targets. He posted four other strong games (7/114, 6/89/1, 6/78/1, and 8/113/1) while averaging 7.4 targets per game. Golladay landed on the injury report this week with chest issue while expecting to play on Sunday. The Vikings moved to third in WR defense (144/1804/9 on 230 targets) after holding WRs to fewer than 160 yards in their last ten games. Kenny caught three of his four targets for 46 yards vs. Minnesota in Week 9. Look for Detroit to move him around again this week to help create better opportunities in coverage. Not a great matchup.
D.J. Moore (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,300): Moore struggled to make an impact in his last three games (65 combined yards with four catches, 5/67, and 34 combined yards with two catches) after trending forward in Week 11 (7/157/1) and Week 12 (8/91). Over his last five games, D.J. averaged just over seven targets per game. The Panthers shut down Cam Newton this week, which lowers the upside of Moore with backup QB Taylor Heinicke starting. The Falcons move to 19th defending WRs (1702211/20 on 256 targets) after holding WRs to fewer than 175 yards and eight TDs over the last seven games. CB Desmond Trufant should keep him under control while having QB trust issues.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,100): Larry finished with a decent game (7/82) last week with some uptick in the 4th quarter after Josh Rosen was sent to the showers. Over his last eight games, Fitzgerald caught 37 of 59 targets for 430 yards and five TDs with one game of value (8/102/1). In Week 2, he had three catches for 28 yards on five targets against the Rams. LA ranks 14th vs. WRs (161/2296/18 on 239 targets) while not allowing a TD to a WR over the last three games. A neutral CB/WR matchup while sketchy QB play tends to equal more short scores. If Josh Rosen doesn’t start, I will give Larry a better chance to be productive.
Adam Humphries (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,800): After a nice run over six games (33/386/5 on 41 targets), Humphries posted back-to-back short games (4/42 and 4/23) while receiving 14 combined targets. This week the Bucs expect to have DeSean Jackson back on the field, which will pull targets away from their other WRs. Adam will get his catches against CB Anthony Brown with a chance of scoring, but his upside is probably only in the mid-teens.
Curtis Samuel (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,700): Samuel had starting snaps in each of his last four games. He scored double-digit Fantasy points in Week 12 (12.20), Week 13 (15.60), and Week 14 (12.00) while struggling last week (one catch for 17 yards). Over the last three games, Curtis averaged 7.7 targets per game. CB Robert Alford hasn’t played well this year, which gives Samuel a chance at this level. His upside is somewhat canceled out by the drop down at QB. More of a flier than a wise play.
BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)
Robert Foster (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,000): Foster has been a top value WR in the daily games in four of his last five starts (3/105, 2/94/1, 7/104, and 4/108/1) while receiving 23 targets over this span. Eight of his 19 targets gained over 20 yards with four of those resulting in 40 yards or more. He had starting snaps in back-to-back games. The Patriots rank 13th against WRs (183/2280/16 on 304 targets). New England allowed seven passing TDs to WRs over the last eight games. They’ve allowed fewer than 200 yards to WRs in 13 of their 14 games. Like his path, but a game on the road against a top defense mind should lead to an empty day. His low targets per game also sets up plenty of downside.
Josh Reynolds (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,300): Josh had a career-high in targets (12) last week while the Eagles took their chances by singling him on the outside. Over the last four games, Josh caught half of his 32 targets for 205 yards and one TD with his best success coming in Week 11 (6/80/1). The structure of the Rams’ WRs on the field points to Reynolds seeing a lot of CB Patrick Peterson this week. Fade for me.
NEUTRAL (ANY FORMAT)
Julio Jones ($8,700/FD – $8,700): Jones has been one of the most trusted WRs in Fantasy over his last nine games. Over this span, he scored over 20.0 Fantasy points in eight starts while finding his scoring rhythm over his last seven contests (six TDs). In his last nine games, Julio has 66 catches for 947 yards and six TDs on 97 targets. He has nine games with over 100 yards receiving and eight games with seven catches or more setting a high floor in most weeks. In Week 2, he finished with a short game (5/64) against Carolina. Over the last three years, Jones has two elite games vs. the Panthers at home (2015 – 9/178/1 and 2016 – 12/300/1). Carolina ranks 23rd defending WRs (180/2433/15 on 278 targets) with three of the last five opponents gaining over 200 yards from the WR position (PIT – 12/226/2, SEA – 15/268/2, and TB – 12/210/2). CB James Bradberry will give up plenty of big plays and some TDs suggesting another solid day for Jones. His top-shelf salary will require 35+ Fantasy points to be an edge.
Antonio Brown (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,700): Brown will finish with a nice year in 2018 (on pace for 103/1271/15), but he only has four games with over 100 yards receiving and four games with over six catches. Over his last two starts, Antonio came up short (5/35 and 4/49/1). He averages 10.6 targets per game. The Saints allow the most Fantasy points to WRs (206/2831/17 on 298 targets). New Orleans showed disaster vs. WRs in six games (TB – 18/361/4, ATL – 17/285/4, BAL – 16/237/1, MIN – 21/246/2, LAR – 16/274/2, and ATL – 24/320/1), but The Saints’ CBs played much better in five of their last six games (CIN – 7/121/1, PHI – 12/118, DAL – 16/169, TB – 10/149, CAR – 6/50) helped by 28 sacks over their last six games. CB Marshon Lattimore will have his hands full if asked to cover Brown one-on-one after showing regression in his sophomore season in the NFL. Pass protection will be the key for Pittsburgh passing the ball this week while expecting to chase on the scoreboard. Antonio tends to shine when matched up with a talented CB. In play for me as follow through in chances should be expected.
Michael Thomas (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,300): Thomas settled into a boring WR1 over the last month (4/38, 5/40, 11/98, and 7/49). Michael delivered three impact games (16/180/1, 12/89/2, and 10/129) to start the year with only one strong showing (12/211/1) over his last 11 starts. He averages 9.1 targets per game with a spectacular catch rate (85.8). The Steelers are 20th vs. WRs (189/2365/15 on 297 targets). Four teams (KC – 14/210/3, TB – 17/278/2, BAL – 14/234/1, and LAC – 20/258/2) gained over 200 yards at WR against Pittsburgh. A date with CB Joe Haden doesn’t look favorable, but New Orleans will find a way to get him in better situations. Game flow is the key here.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,000): Smith-Schuster is the 8th rank WR in PPR leagues (95/1274/6 on 141 targets). Just like Brown, Juju came up short in two of his last three games (6/49 and 4/40). He did play well three of his last five starts (8/104, 13/189/1, and 8/130/2) with four other games with over 100 yards receiving (5/119, 13/121/1, 9/116, and 7/111). On most plays, Smith-Schuster will see CB Eli Apple in coverage who played better in his recent games with the Saints. Ideally, Pittsburgh would like to get him in favorable situations against CB P.J. Williams who has failure risk in all areas. I expect him to be the Steelers’ top WR this week.
Julian Edelman (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,000): Over the last seven games, Edelman caught 47 passes for 564 yards and two TDs on 68 targets with four strong games (9/104, 9/104, 4/84/1, and 9/86/1). Surprisingly over this stretch, Julian posted to short games at home (6/71 and 3/25). In Week 8, he had nine catches for 104 yards on ten targets against the Bills. Buffalo is 6th in the league against QBs (155/1748/12 on 234 targets). No team has over 200 yards receiving at WR against the Bills. Edelman will draw a weaker CB with a chance to more targets with Josh Gordon no longer in the starting lineup. His salary is slightly above his opportunity while the Patriots will attack Buffalo with the run game.
Robert Woods (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,500): Woods has 42 catches for 582 yards and two TDs on 69 targets over his last eight games while failing to score more than 20.0 Fantasy points in any of these games. Robert had three productive games (10/104/2, 5/101/1, and 7/109) over his first six games of the year. Overall, he averages 8.6 targets per game while posting the best season of his career (78/1106/5). In Week 2, he caught six of nine targets against the Cardinals for 81 yards. Arizona is 10th in the league against WRs (187/2115/14 on 283 targets) after struggling last week against the Falcons’ WRs (20/226/2). The Cardinals did allow the most receiving yards to the Rams’ WRs (19/303). Woods shifted to the slot on more plays after the Cooper Kupp injury. Outside shot at 20+ Fantasy points.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,300): After two strong games (6/103 and 111 combined yards with two TDs and three catches), Landry delivered a short game (3/37 on eight targets) against the Broncos. Despite trending forward or late, Jarvis did show a lot of emptiness over his previous eight games (40/352/2 on 75 targets). In Week 12, he had three catches for 30 yards on five targets against the Bengals. Cinci worked their way to 17th in WR defense (179/2367/14 on 282 targets) after holding WRs to short stats over the last six games (12/135/2, 8/95, 9/122/1, 8/104/1, 12/148/1, and 11/137). Over this span, the Bengals did struggle in three games against the run. Coin toss while expecting to play better at home.
Allen Robinson (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,500): Robinson is 1-for-14 on the year with his only impact game (6/133/2) coming in Week 10. Allen has five straight boring games (3/39, 2/37, 5/79, 5/42, and 3/54) while averaging 7.2 targets per game. The 49ers are 25th against WRs (162/2248/20 on 262 targets). The Bears’ passing game doesn’t offer as much as upside on the road, and he’ll face CB Richard Sherman on many plays. Pre 2017, he would be a value at this level. Only flier for a fan of Chicago this week.
Alshon Jeffery (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,300): Jeffery started the year with three playable games (8/105/1, 8/74/2, and 7/88/1) in his first four starts. He went into hibernation over his next five games (4/35, 4/48, 4/33, 3/39. and 3/31) while showing a pulse in Week 14 (6/50/1) and shining last week (8/160) after a switch at QB. Alshon averages 7.5 targets per game. Houston ranks 11th vs. WRs (180/2351/11 on 280 targets) with failure in two of his last three games (16/277/1 and 20/318/1). CB Shareece Wright will give up some TDs and big plays. Possible follow through.
Calvin Ridley (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,500): Ridley struggled to add Fantasy value in five of his last six games (3/37, 3/32, 3/22, 1/10, and 5/42) while averaging five targets per game in his poor showings. His best two games (7/146/3 and 8/93/1) came against the Saints while posting short stats on the road (22/249/2 on 38 targets) in his six games. Calvin did play well in Week 2 at home against the Panthers (4/64/1). CB Donte Jackson gives up a high catch rate with plenty of missed tackles and TDs. Real tough to trust while still having the game to surprise with a bump in opportunity.
Dede Westbrook (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,500): Westbrook only had three catches for 21 yards last week, but a returned kick for a TD and 20 yards rushing helped him post a decent game. The previous week he caught seven of his ten targets for 88 yards and one TD. Dede has two other games of value (4/82/1 and 9/130) while averaging 6.1 targets per game. Miami is 12th in the NFL defending WRs (161/2325/16 on 252 targets) with no team gaining over 235 yards at the WR position. CB Bobby McCain has plenty of risk in catches allowed and TDs to give Westbrook a chance to be playable if given enough targets to fill his salary bucket.
Sterling Shepard (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,000): Over the last seven games, Shepard caught only 50 percent of his targets for 184 yards and two TDs. He played well in three games (6/80/1, 10/77/1, and 5/167) in 2018 while averaging 6.5 targets per game. CB Kenny Moore allows short yards per catch with minimal TDs and a high catch rate. Even if Odell Beckham doesn’t play, the luster and hope of Sterling is a distant memory in 2018.
Golden Tate (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,700): Tate has 24 catches for 232 yards and one TD on 35 targets in his six games in Philly with his best game coming in Week 13 (7/85/1). His game did offer upside in three of his first four games in Detroit (7/79/1, 7/109, and 8/132/2). His playing time declined in four straight games (71, 60, 48, 38, and 34 percent of the snaps). His career resume gives him a chance while his 2018 path points minimal chances.
Demaryius Thomas (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,300): Over the last four games for the Texans, Thomas has 17 catches for 177 yards and two TDs on 24 targets over his last four games. His best success for the Texans came in Week 12 (4/38/2). If DeAndre Hopkins isn’t at full strength in Week 16, Demaryius could see a nice bump in chances. The Eagles have weakness at CB, and Deshaun Watson should attack in the deep passing game. Thomas may score, but his targets tend to low for a player with his high of a salary.
Robby Anderson (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,900): Anderson played well over his last two games (4/76/1 and 7/96/1) with 18 combined targets. Last week was the first time all year that Robby had over four catches. His best game (3/123/2) came in Week 5 at home. The Packers slipped to 28th in WR defense (171/2285/19 on 282 targets) with failure defending WRs in four games (MIN – 23/282/4, NE – 14/231/1, MIN – 18/219/2, and ATL – 18/200/3). CB Jaire Alexander can play well in coverage, which points to a step back in chances for Anderson in Week 16.
Dante Pettis (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,400): Over his last four games, Pettis caught 17 of 26 targets for 338 yards and four TDs. He had an impact game in Week 13 (5/129/2) with a minimum of 13.0 Fantasy points in his other three games. The Bears are 22nd defending WRs (198/2403/12 on 322 targets) while showing improvement defending WRs in their last four games (13/137, 10/133/2, 13/119, and 14/173). His matchup with CB Prince Amukamara looks neutral while Chicago’s second starting outside CB Kyle Fuller did get injured last week. His game is at home, which is enough of a reason to keep him in play at this level.
Antonio Callaway (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,100): Over his last four games, Callaway caught 13 passes for 181 yards and two TDs on 19 targets while showing growth in his ability to make big plays and tough catches. Antonio only averages 5.1 targets per game giving him too many empty days. In Week 12, he beat the Bengals for four catches for 62 yards and a TD. Cinci has risk on defense, which gives Callaway a chance on hitting on a long TD.