CASH Game Strategy Reminders

The first thing to discuss with regards to cash games is contest selection.  What?  Yes, contest selection matters for cash games as well.  Let’s walk through the type of cash game contests that I would focus on for NFL DFS.

Find large Contests.

The 11 man double-ups might seem great as 5/11 will place and you only have to beat 6 people.  Then you really notice the chalk and that two or three “pros” have the exact same lineup minus one player.  It’s not that all of them are sharing lineups, but its that they’ve done this long enough that they have a trusted process that will lead them to the same spot.  Can you beat them?  Yes.  Is it annoying to sweat in an 11 man contest?   Yes.   Go for the larger contest.  Sort by the size of the contest descending and then go from there.

BALANCE, BALANCE, BALANCE

IDENTIFY WEAK POSITIONS

 

 

WEEK 13 CASH GAME PLAYS

Each week we are going to post these CASH game plays early in the week.  It’s often a good indicator of the early week rankings but things will change with late week injuries or late scratches.  Monitor the Optimizer and Scout Rankings for updates as the week moves on.

All prices listed below are FanDuel prices and players in BOLD on the left are who we project to be the highest owned players in cash games (double check close to Sunday lock for accuracy)

 

WEEK 13 Updates

Your heavy chalk players this week appear to be as follows

 

QUARTERBACKS

Scout Rankings Picks of the week
  1. Patrick Mahomes – $9,500
  2. Cam Newton – $8,700
  3. Jameis Winston – $7,500
  4. Kirk Cousins – $7,600
Cam Newton (DK – $6,600/FD – $8,700): Newton continues to be the sixth best QB after 12 weeks of the NFL season. Cam has two TDs or more in ten straight games while finding some of his lost value in the run game last week (8/63). He has two games with over 300 yards passing with only a steady outing in his earlier matchup against the Bucs (280 combined yards with two TDs). Tampa allows the fourth-most Fantasy points to QBs with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bucs held the QB position to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points in each of their last three games while facing WAS, NYG, and SF. The Panthers offer more firepower on offense, and they desperately need a win after dropping the last two games. Tampa allows 8.7 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 26 TDs. Upside matchup and this pony owns me plenty of dough from their matchup in Week 9.

Lamar Jackson (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,500): Jackson is expected to earn his third straight start even with Joe Flacco getting closer to the field. Over his first two games leading the Ravens, Jackson has 518 combined yards with two TDs with his best value coming in the run game (37/190/1). Even with two wins, Lamar did throw two Ints while facing two weaker opponents (CIN and OAk). The Falcons allow the second-most Fantasy points to QBs with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Atlanta has risk vs. the run (268/1363/13) with QBs rushing for 210 yards with two rushing TDs. Jackson has a favorable matchup, but this game will be on the road, and an active Flacco could threaten his upside if a couple of errant passes land in the hands of the opposing team.

Kirk Cousins (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,600): Cousins threw the ball well last week (342/3) after going six straight games with two passing TDs or fewer. His best success came in Week 2 (425/4) and Week 4 (422/3) while passing for over 300 yards in two other games. The Patriots are 26th defending the QB position with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (JAC – 377/4, IND – 365/3, and KC – 352/4) with two other teams passing for over 300 yards. New England will have their hands full defending the top two Vikings’ WRs, which gives Cousins a chance at an upside game.

Jameis Winston (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,500): Winston threw the ball well over his last game and a half (511 yards with four TDs) with strength in his completion rate (75.9). In his three other starts, Jamies had one game of value (395/4) while tosing ten Ints over his first 148 passing attempts on the year. Tampa averages well over 350 passing yards per game with their QBs tossing 27 TDs. Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 243 yards and four TDs in the Bucs last game vs. the Panthers in Week 9. Carolina ranks 27th defending QBs with six QBs posting high floor games (CIN – 352/2, NYG – 383/3, PHI – 310/2, TB – 243/4, PIT – 325/5, and SEA – 339/2). All the making of an impact game; both teams will score and Tampa doesn’t run the ball well especially in the red zone.


RUNNING BACKS

Scout Rankings Picks of the week
  1. Todd Gurley – $9,800
  2. Christian McCaffrey – $8,800
  3. Aaron Jones – $7,600

MID RANGE:

  1. Phil Lindsay – $7,000
  2. LeSean McCoy, $5,700
  3. Dalvin Cook – $6,200
Todd Gurley (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800): After a bye week and a short outing in what looked like an explosive game in Week 11 vs. the Chiefs, Gurley wasn’t on the Rams’ injury report on Wednesday. In three of his last five games, Todd gained fewer than 100 combined yards (86, 79, and 94). His TD streak ended at ten in his last game. Gurley gained over 100 yards in seven games with 17 TDs and 56 catches while averaging 23.0 touches per game. The Lions are 24th in the NFL defending RBs with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. They allow 4.7 yards per rush with RBs scoring with RBs scoring 11 TDs. I expect him to bounce back in a big way in this game. Possible 50+ yard TD in the run game with a very good chance of hitting on another long play in the passing game.

Image result for christian mccaffreyChristian McCaffrey (DK – $8,800/FD – $8,800): McCaffrey posted three explosive games in his last four starts (32/70, 36.80, and 46.70). His great game last week (237 combined yards with two TDs and 11 catches) puts him on pace for 1,985 yards with 15 TDs and 103 catches or 370+ Fantasy points. In Week 9, Christian had 156 combined yards with two TDs and five catches against the Bucs. Tampa ranks 26th defending RBs with six teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bucs allowed over 5.0 yards per rush in five of their last six games with RBs scoring 18 TDs with failure vs. RBs in the passing game in two outings (NO – 9/112/1 and CHI – 7/121/1). A very winnable matchup with multi TD upside.

Aaron Jones (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,600): Jones played well over his last five games (539 combined yards with five TDs and 15 catches) while averaging 16.8 touches per game. Green Bay had him on the field for about 80 percent of their plays over the last three weeks. His best success came in Week 10 (172 combined yards with two catches and three catches) and Week 11 (103 combined yards with two TDs and five catches). The Cardinals ranks 29th defending RBs with failure in five games (49.10, 38.90, 33.30, 41.00, and 54.10) due to 32.2 rushes per game and game score. Arizona allows 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring 17 TDs. A popular player this week due to his salary and matchup.

Phillip Lindsay (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000): Lindsay had a season-high 63 percent of the RB snaps last week. Over his last two games, Phillip gained 216 combined yards with three TDs and four catches while averaging 14.5 touches per game. Over the last five games, he had 84 touches (16.8 per game) for 508 yards with five TDs and ten catches. Cinci allows the second-most Fantasy points to RBs with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bengals allow 4.7 yards per rush with RBs scoring 17 TDs. Trending forward with a fair salary and favorable matchup.

UPDATE:  ADD SPENCER WARE with KAREEM HUNT BEING RELEASED

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Scout Rankings Picks of the week
Top:

  1. DeAndre Hopkins – $8,800
  2. Adam Thielen – $8,100
  3. Tyreek Hill – $8,400
  4. Mike Evans – $7,900

Mid Range:

  1. Brandin Cooks – $7,800
  2. DJ Moore – $6,400
  3. Julian Edelman – $7,200

Value

  1. Curtis Samuel – $5,500
  2. Chris Godwin – $5,400
  3. John Brown – $4,800
Adam Thielen (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,100): Thielen posted his ninth game with over 100 yards receiving in Week 12 (8/125/1) after falling short of his 2018 success in Week 9 (4/22/1) and Week 11 (7/66). Adam scored a TD in seven of his last eight games while averaging 11.3 targets per game. Over the last two weeks, Thielen showed up on the injury report with multiple minor issues. The Patriots are 12th in the NFL defending WRs (138/1784/12 on 236 targets) with only one team gaining over 200 yards (JAC – 16/246/3), which came in Week 2. NE has one good CB, who won’t face Thielen on many plays. Overall, the Patriots have risk in TDs in their secondary pointing to another high volume game for Adam. A decent battle on the scoreboard should lead to Thielen being the top choice at WR in Week 13.

Brandin Cooks (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,800): Cooks is the 16th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with over 100 yards receiving in each of his last three games (6/114/1, 10/100, and 8/107) while receiving 32 targets. Four of his five games with over 100 yards receiving came at home along with each game with seven catches or more. His catch rate (70.2) remains high while needing to add more TDs (3) to his 2018 resume. The Lions are 15th defending the WR position (118/1807/15 on 173 targets) while showing disaster downside in two of their last three games (CHI – 11/255/3 and CAR – 17/291/2) and one other game (GB – 19/297/2) earlier in the year. Detroit continues to have failure at their second and third CB positions, which gives Brandin a chance at another good game. I don’t like his resume on the road while expecting Todd Gurley to post an elite game.

D.J. Moore (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,400): D.J. shined in his last two games (7/157/1 and 8/91) while receiving 17 targets. The injury to Devin Funches helped his value and opportunity of Moore. Over the last four games, D.J. was one the field for over 85 percent of the WR snaps. In Week 9, he caught one of his two targets for 16 yards against the Bucs. Tampa allows the third most Fantasy points to WRs (150/1831/17 on 194 targets) with most of their failure coming over the first seven games of the season (NO – 23/268/2, PIT – 20/200/2, CHI – 10/147/4, ATL – 19/278/1, CIN – 15/219/2). I expect the Panthers to play much better offensively giving a Moore a chance to redeem himself after his poor showing in the previous matchup.

Chris Godwin (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,400): Last week Godwin has WR2 snaps for the Bucs for the second straight game, but he still delivered to boring games (3/50 and 4/42) while receiving seven targets. Chris scored four TDs over the first four games with his best game coming in Week 10 (7/103). With DeSean Jackson battling a thumb injury, Godwin may end up with a nice bump in targets in this game. Viable option at this level while drawing a favorable CB matchup. Possible TD with game flow being the key to his upside. If Jackson doesn’t play, Chris will draw the green tag.

Tyreek Hill (DK – $9,100/FD – $8,400): Hill moved to second in WR scoring in PPR leagues after posting back-to-back impact games (7/117/2 and 10/215/2). Tyreek was a beast as well in Week 1 (7/169/2) and Week 6 (7/142/3). The Raiders are 11th defending WRs (111/1602/16 on 188 targets) while holding WRs to fewer than 170 yards receiving in their last six games. Oakland has risk vs. the run game and TEs in the passing game, which pulls away chances an upside from the WR position. CB Gareon Conley will give up TDs, but WRs tends to have a short catch rate and minimal TDs. I don’t fear his matchup at all, but game score may not give him the lion’s share of chances. Nice floor with explosiveness, but a third straight game with over 35.0 Fantasy points may be a lot to ask.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Scout Rankings Picks of the week
  1. Travis Kelce – $7,800
  2. Rob Gronkowski – $6,700
  3. Greg Olsen – $6,000
  4. Cameron Brate – $4,900
Rob Gronkowski (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,700): Last week Gronkowski scored his first TD since Week 1 while catching only three of his seven targets for 56 yards. Rob has four catches or less in six of his last seven games with only one impact game (7/123/1) on the year. This week he remains limited in practice with a back issue while expecting to play on Sunday. The Vikings played well vs. the TE position over the last four games (0/0, 3/29, 2/13, and 5/52) after showing risk in five games (5/90, 7/99, 12/126/1, 6/95, and 5/37/1) of their seven games to start the year. Overall, Minnesota is 14th defending TDs (49/598/3 on 71 targets. Not in the best form while playing against a top tier defense. Fade for me in the daily games.

David Njoku (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,500): Njoku delivered four steady games (6/69, 7/55/1, 4/52/1, and 5/63/1) over his last seven starts, but he did come up empty in two of those games (0/0 and 1/18). Over the last five games, David only has 17 combined targets while battling a knee issue that leads to another questionable tag heading into Week 13. The Texans rank 26th vs. the TE position (61/742/6 on 76 targets) with failure defending the TE in the last three games (DEN – 11/127/1, WAS – 7/71/1, and TEN 7/142/1) while also struggling in Week 1 (7/123/1). This matchup sure looks favorable, and Njoku has a low enough salary to produce an edge for a Fantasy owner if he plays well. For some reason, I sense a trap here.

Greg Olsen (DK – $4,100/FD – $6,000): Olsen has been a frustrating player over the last three games (4/40, 2/9/1 and 2/11) after showing some upside in his previous two starts (4/56/1 and 6/76/1) with the latter game coming vs. the Bucs. Greg’s opportunity has only been five targets per game in his last seven contests. Tampa is 28th defending TEs (61/817/5 on 81 targets) with three other teams scoring over 20.0 Fantasy points (PHI – 15/151, PIT – 5/119/1, and ATL – 9/71/1). Olsen should be active in this game with a chance at a TD. The key to his upside will be more balls thrown his way, which seems to be tough with Christian McCaffrey getting so many chances.

Cameron Brate (DK – $3,700/FD – $4,900): Brate was on the field for 70 percent of the TE snaps for the Bucs in Week 12, which fell in line with O.J. Howards opportunity over the first 11 weeks. He caught three of his four targets for 26 yards and a TD. Over the last nine games, Cameron failed to gain over 35 yards receiving in any game with four TDs and only 28 targets while being the number two TE for Tampa in all but one game. The Panthers allow the most Fantasy points to TEs (65/713/8 on 84 targets) with failure in six games (NYG – 9/109, WAS – 8/84/1, PHI – 13/181/1, BAL – 7/67/1, TB – 7/68/2, and PIT – 5/52/2). I fully expect a season-high in catches and receiving yards with a TD in a game that should have some scoring by both teams.

 

DEFENSES

Scout Rankings Picks of the week
  1. Rams – $4,100
  2. Chiefs – $4,300
  3. Bears – $4,800
  4. Dolphins – $4,100
  5. Jags – $3,700
Rams, Chiefs, Bears are all decent but all on the road, I would lean on the Dolphins at $4,100 in cash games this week at home against Buffalo