The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is back at Michigan International Speedway this weekend, and now that the starting lineup is set and all the practice are in the books, it is time to turn our attention to winning some money at DraftKings and Fanduel.
Not surprisingly, you need to focus on the dominator categories when assembling your lineups this weekend. Yes, there are only 200 laps on tap, but history says that one driver could lead about half the laps.
While I’ll be anchoring my lineups with a high-priced stud, I won’t be rostering multiple members of the Big 3. For one, Martin Truex Jr. struggled at Michigan in June and appears to be lacking elite speed again this weekend. Meanwhile, rostering both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch makes it tough to build a quality lineup overall.
My decision to go with a lot of one-dominator lineups is also influenced by the fact that several quality drivers who are starting toward the middle of the pack seem to have strong enough cars to provide a few dominator points themselves. You also have Daniel Suarez starting dead last after a qualifying mishap.
I think Harvick and Busch have the best chance to finish as the top scorer this weekend, but I think many of the best plays will come from the group starting just outside the Top 15. These drivers receive an additional boost in value at Fanduel where the value of leading laps is greatly reduced.
Check out all my top NASCAR DFS plays for DraftKings and Fanduel for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan and go get those lineups locked in.
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DraftKings Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($12,200)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Harvick appears to have the car to beat this weekend. He also had the car to beat Michigan in June, leading the most laps and finishing second when rain stopped the race early. He starts third this weekend, and after he showed excellent speed on longer runs in race trim, Harvick seems like the best bet to win the dominator categories.
Kyle Busch ($11,900)
Michigan hasn’t been his strongest track historically, but Busch finished fourth here in June, and he is starting second this weekend with a car that turned the second-fastest lap in final practice. Busch has basically been a lock for a Top 5 finish and some dominator points since the All-Star Race, and I don’t see that changing this weekend.
Kyle Larson ($10,600)
He had a lackluster 17th-place qualifying effort, but Larson appear to have one of the fastest cars in race trim during Happy Hour. He has also won three of the last four races at Michigan, so he is no stranger to running up front at this place. Larson should easily eclipse 40 fantasy points on his finishing position and place differential points alone, and he has some legit dominator potential, as well. Larson could be the total package at DraftKings.
Daniel Suarez ($7,800)
Suarez got into the wall in qualifying, forcing him to start dead last Sunday and giving him maximum potential in the place differential category. After posting one of the best 10-lap averages in final practice, he appears to have a car taking advantage of all his differential upside. Suarez cold end up being the steal of the weekend.
DraftKings Cash Game Plays
Clint Bowyer ($9,700)
He had an excellent run at Michigan back in June, running up front all afternoon and eventually stealing the win with some pit strategy and a timely storm. Bowyer starts 16th this weekend, but based on his practice speeds, he should have no problem getting back to the front. Between his place differential upside and dominator potential, Bowyer is a safe bet to post a strong score.
Brad Keselowski ($9,500)
Keselowski has been slumping in recent weeks, but his 18th-place starting spot gives him a solid floor through the place differential category. He also has a solid resume at Michigan, logging seven Top 10s in the last 10 races and finishing sixth here earlier this year. I wouldn’t expect dominator points, but Keselowski should be able to finish in the 40-point range.
Chase Elliott ($8,900)
For as well as he has been running in recent weeks, Elliott hasn’t shown the speed I expected out of him this weekend. However, he has a 4.6 average finish in five starts at Michigan and has never finished outside the Top 10. Elliott should at least be able to deliver a solid finish, and starting back in 21st, that would translate to 40-plus points.
Ty Dillon ($5,700)
Dillon probably isn’t going to be a major X-factor for lineups, but he should be a safe source of cap relief. He has a 20.0 average finish and a +8.8 average place differential in five starts at Michigan, and he has never finished outside the Top 25. Dillon starts 27th Sunday, so he should at least gain a few spots an and push for 20 fantasy points.
DraftKings GPP Plays
Denny Hamlin ($10,200)
Hamlin was thrilled with his car in race trim Saturday, but he is starting on the pole, and clean air can mean a lot. He will have his work cut out for him trying to hold off Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, but there is a chance Hamlin at least runs away with the first stage and maybe more. He is someone worth having a little exposure to just in case he parlays the pole into a big performance.
Ryan Blaney ($8,700)
He had one of the strongest cars at Michigan back in June, winning Stage 1, leading 15 laps and recording 24 fastest laps. Blaney doesn’t have much differential upside after qualifying in the Top 10, but he flexed plenty of muscle in practice and could be a sleeper source of dominator points once again. I like the idea of using Blaney as a pivot to one of the popular dominators.
William Byron ($6,800)
Byron qualified 20th, making him one of the middle-of-the-pack starters who can sometimes slip through the cracks. The rookie also cracked the Top 10 in both practice sessions Saturday and finished in the Top 15 at Michigan back in June. Byron has enough differential upside to make an impact if he challenges for a Top 10, and I like him as a high-upside, low-priced GPP play.
Alex Bowman ($6,600)
Starting up in the Top 10 makes Bowman a risky pick and limits his differential upside, but on the plus side, it should also limit his ownership. Meanwhile, he ranked third and seventh in the two practices Saturday, so a Top 10 finish isn’t out of the question. Bowman could provide 30-plus points on finishing position alone, and he could do so for a great price.
Chris Buescher ($6,200)
Buescher popped up in the Top 20 in the opening practice Saturday, and even in Happy Hour, he looked like he had the most competitive car among the drivers from smaller teams. He starts 23rd, which isn’t deep enough to make him an obvious play, but I like him as a potential contrarian to cheap guys starting outside the Top 25 like Ty Dillon, Michael McDowell and Trevor Bayne.
Fanduel Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($12,700)
Kyle Larson ($11,800)
Clint Bowyer ($11,000)
Clint Bowyer ($10,200)
Daniel Suarez ($8,400)
Fanduel Value Plays
Chase Elliott ($10,600)
Brad Keselowski ($10,400)
William Byron ($7,700)
Ty Dillon ($5,500)
Fanduel Contrarians
Kyle Busch ($12,200)
Ryan Blaney ($9,800)
Jimmie Johnson ($8,700)
Chris Buescher (6,200)
